The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 11, Issue 9, 2016, Pages

  Trigg, M A ^a,b   Birch, C E ^a   Neal, J C ^b,c   Bates, P D ^b,c   Smith, A ^b,c   Sampson, C C ^b,c   Yamazaki, D ^d   Hirabayashi, Y ^e   Pappenberger, F ^f   Dutra, E ^f   Ward, P J ^g   Winsemius, H C ^h   Salamon, P ⁱ   Dottori, F ⁱ   Rudari, R ^j   Kappes, M S ^k   Simpson, A L ^k   Hadzilacos, G ^l   Fewtrell, T J ^l  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

^c SSBN Flood Risk Solutions ^*  (United Kingdom)

^d JAPAN AGENCY FOR MARINE EARTH SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY   (Japan)

^e UNIVERSITY OF TOKYO   (Japan)

^f EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^g INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Netherlands)

^h DELTARES   (Netherlands)

ⁱ JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE   (Italy)

^j CIMA Research Foundation   (Italy)

^k WORLD BANK GROUP   (United States)

^l Towers Watson   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

flood hazard; flood risk; global flood models

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; DECISION MAKING; HAZARDS; LOSSES; RISK ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; RISKS;

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS; FLOOD HAZARDS; FLOOD MODELS; FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS; FLOOD RISKS; MODELLING FRAMEWORK; NUMERICAL ALGORITHMS; POPULATION ESTIMATE;

FLOODS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DECISION MAKING; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; FLOOD; FLOOD CONTROL; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; INSURANCE SYSTEM; NATURAL HAZARD; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION ESTIMATION; RISK ASSESSMENT;

AFRICA;

EID: 84992052824     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. UNISDR, GAR 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, Making Development Sustainable: The Future of Disaster Risk Management (Geneva: United Nations) (www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/gar-pdf/GAR2015-EN.pdf)
2. Munich R E 2015 Loss events worldwide 1980-2014, 10 costliest floods ordered by overall losses, 2015 (www.munichre.com/natcatservice) (Accessed: 1 July 2015)
3. Kundzewicz Z W et al 2014 Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives Hydrol. Sci. J. 59 1-28
4. Winsemius H C et al 2015 Global drivers of future river flood risk Nat. Clim. Change 6 381-5
5. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) 2015 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (www.unisdr.org/we/inform/publications/43291)
6. UNFCCC 2013 Decision2/CP.19 Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts (>http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2013/cop19/eng/10a01.pdf#page=6)
7. Ward P J et al 2015 Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models Nat. Clim. Change 5 712-5
8. Hall J W 2014 Editorial: steps towards global flood risk modelling J. Flood Risk Manage. 7 193-4
9. Jonkman S N 2013 Correspondence: advanced flood risk analysis required Nat. Clim. Change 3 1004-1004
10. Rodriguez E, Morris C S and Belz J E 2006 A global assessment of the SRTM performance Photogramm. Eng. Rem. Sens. 72 249-60
11. Baugh C A, Bates P D, Schumann G and Trigg M A 2013 SRTM vegetation removal and hydrodynamic modeling accuracy Water Resour. Res. 49 5276-89
12. Lehner B, Kristine V and Jarvis A 2008 New global hydrography derived from spaceborne elevation data Eos Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 89 2324-9250
13. Yamazaki D, O'Loughlin F, Trigg M A, Miller Z F, Pavelsky T M and Bates P D 2014 Development of the global width database for large rivers Water Resour. Res. 50 3467-80
14. Winsemius H C, Van Beek L P H, Jongman B, Ward P J and Bouwman A 2013 A framework for global river flood risk assessments Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 17 1871-92
15. Pappenberger F, Dutra E, Wetterhall F and Cloke H L 2012 Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 16 4143-56
16. Yamazaki D, Kanae S, Kim H and Oki T 2011 A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model Water Resour. Res. 47 W04501
17. Smith A, Sampson C and Bates P 2015 Regional flood frequency analysis at the global scale Water Resour. Res. 51 539-53
18. Bates P D, Horritt M S and Fewtrell T J 2010 A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations for efficient two-dimensional flood inundation modelling J. Hydrol. 387 33-45
19. Hirabayashi Y et al 2013 Global flood risk under climate change Nat. Clim. Change 3 816-21
20. Pranantyo I R, Fadmastuti M and Chandra F 2015 InaSAFE applications in disaster preparedness AIP Conf. Proc. 1658 060001
21. Dottori F, Salamon P, Bianchi A, Alfieri L, Hirpa F A and Feyen L 2016 Development and evaluation of a framework for global flood hazard mapping Adv. Water Res. 94 87-102
22. Sampson C C S, Andrew M, Bates P B, Neal J C, Alfieri L and Freer J E 2015 A high-resolution global flood hazard model Water Resour. Res. 51 7358-81
23. Herold C and Mouton F 2011 Global flood hazard mapping using statistical peak flow estimates Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 8 305-63
24. Herold C 2009 Floods, Appendix 1: Global Risk Analysis, Global Assessment Report 2009 (www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/report/index.php?id=9413&pid:39&pil:1)
25. De Groeve T et al 2015 Joining forces in a global flood partnership Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 96 Es 97-100
26. Ward P J et al 2013 Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity Environ. Res. Lett. 8 044019
27. Stevens F R, Gaughan A E, Linard C and Tatem A J 2015 Disaggregating census data for population mapping using random forests with remotely-sensed and ancillary data PLoS One 10 e0107042
28. van Vuuren D P, Lucas P L and Hilderink H 2007 Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels Glob. Environ. Change 17 114-30
29. Meyer V, Scheuer S and Haase D 2009 A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the mulde river, Germany Nat. Hazards 48 17-39
30. Knutti R 2010 The end of model democracy? Clim. Change 102 395-404
31. Meynadier R et al 2010 West African Monsoon water cycle: II. Assessment of numerical weather prediction water budgets J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 115 D19107
32. Meehl G A, Covey C, McAvaney B, Latif M and Stouffer R J 2005 Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 86 89-93
33. Warszawski L, Frieler K, Huber V, Piontek F, Serdeczny O and Schewe J 2014 The inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISI-MIP): project framework Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111 3228-32
34. Jongman B et al 2015 Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112 E2271-80
35. Sampson C C, Smith A M, Bates P D, Neal J C and Trigg M A 2016 Perspectives on open access high resolution digital elevation models to produce global flood hazard layers Frontiers Earth Sci. 3 85
36. Schumann G J P, Bates P D, Neal J C and Andreadis K M 2014 Fight floods on a global scale Nature 507 169-169