Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 16, Issue 11, 2012, Pages 4143-4156

  Pappenberger, F ^a,b   Dutra, E ^a   Wetterhall, F ^a   Cloke, H L ^a,c  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^b HOHAI UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL MAXIMA; BENCHMARK DATA; DATA SETS; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS; FLOOD FLOW; FLOOD HAZARDS; FLOOD RISKS; FLOOD-PLAINS; FRACTIONAL AREA; GUMBEL DISTRIBUTION; HAZARD MAP; HIGHER RESOLUTION; LAND AREAS; LAND SURFACE MODELS; METEOROLOGICAL FORCING; PHYSICAL MODEL; PHYSICALLY BASED MODELS; POSTPROCESSING METHODS; RAINFALL RUNOFF; REANALYSIS; REGIONAL MAPS; REGIONAL SCALE; RETURN PERIODS;

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; HAZARDS; STRUCTURAL GEOLOGY;

FLOODS;

ALGORITHM; BENCHMARKING; DATA SET; FLOODING; FLOODPLAIN; FLOW MODELING; HAZARD ASSESSMENT; MAPPING METHOD; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RETURN PERIOD; RISK ASSESSMENT; RIVER FLOW; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EUROPE;

EID: 84869426396     PISSN: 10275606     EISSN: 16077938     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-4143-2012     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Alfieri, L., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble hydrometeorological simulation for flash flood early detection in southern Switzerland, J. Hydrol., 424-425, 43-153, 2012.
2. Arora, V. K. and Boer, G. J.: A variable velocity flow routing algorithm for GCMs, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30965-30979, 1999.
3. Balsamo, G., Viterbo, P., Beljaars, A., Van den Hurk, B., Betts, A. K., and Scipal, K.: A revised hydrology for the ECMWF model: Verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the Integrated Forecast System, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 623-643 doi:10.1175/2008JHM1068.1, 2009.
4. Balsamo, G., Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Viterbo P., and van den Hurk, B.: A revised land hydrology in the ECMWF model: a step towards daily water flux prediction in a fully-closed water cycle, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1046-1054, doi:10.1002/hyp.7808, 2011.
5. Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H. L., Dee, D., Dutra, E., Pappenberger, F., Munoz Sabater, J., Stockdale, T., and Vitart, F.: ERA-Interim/Land: A global land-surface reanalysis based on ERA-Interim meteorological forcing, ECMWF ERA Report Series, 13, 25 pp., 2012.
6. Barredo, J. I., de Roo, A., and Lavalle, C.: Flood risk mapping at European scale, Water Sci. Technol., 56, 11-17, 2007. (Pubitemid 47433134)
7. Bartholmes, J. C., Thielen, J., Ramos, M. H., and Gentilini, S.: The european flood alert system EFAS - Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 141-153, doi:10.5194/hess-13-141- 2009, 2009.
8. Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Fielding, M., Fuentes, M., Kallberg, P., Kobayashi, S., and Uppala, S. M.: The ERA-Interim Archive, ERA Report Series, No. 1, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK, 2009 Beven, K. J.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, Wiley- Blackwel, 488 pp., 2012.
9. Beven, K. J. and Binley, A. M.: The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction, Hydrol. Process., 6, 279-298, 1992.
10. Beven, K. J. and Cloke, H. L.: Comment on 'Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water' by Eric F. Wood et al., Water Resour. Res., 48, W01801, doi:10.1029/2011WR010982, 2012.
11. Blazkova, S. and Beven, K. J.: Flood Frequency Estimation by Continuous Simulation for a Catchment treated as Ungauged (with Uncertainty), Water Resour. Res., 38, 1139, doi:10.1029/2001WR000500, 2002.
12. Blodie;schl, G. and Sivapalan, M.: Process controls on regional flood frequency: coefficient of variation and basin scale,Water Resour. Res., 33, 2967-2980, 1997. (Pubitemid 27526651)
13. Brakenridge, G. R.: Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events, Dartmouth Flood Observatory, University of Colorado, available at: http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/index.html (last access: 20 September 2012), 2012.
14. Castellarin, A., Merz, R. and Blodie;schl, G.: Probabilistic envelope curves for extreme rainfall events, J. Hydrol., 378, 263-271, 2009.
15. Cloke, H. L. and Hannah, D. M.: Large-scale hydrology: advances in understanding processes, dynamics and models from beyond river basin to global scale, Hydrol. Process., 25, 991-995, doi:10.1002/hyp.8059, 2011.
16. Cloke, H. L., Jeffers, C.,Wetterhall, F., Byrne, T., Lowe J., and Pappenberger, F.: Climate impacts on river flow: projections for the Medway catchment, UK, with UKCP09 and CATCHMOD, Hydrol. Process., 24, 3476-3489, doi:10.1002/hyp.7769, 2010.
17. Cloke, H. L., Weisheimer, A., and Pappenberger, F.: Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with the ECMWF land surface scheme, in Proceedings of the ECMWF/WMO/WCRP workshop on 'Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in NumericalWeather and Climate Prediction Models', 20-24 June 2011 at ECMWF, Reading, UK, 2011.
18. Cloke, H. L., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Freer, J. E., and Pappenberger, F.: Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., online first: doi:10.1002/qj.1998, 2012.
19. Dadson, S. J., Ashpole, I., Harris, P., Davies, H. N., Clark, D. B., Blyth, E., and Taylor, C. M.: Wetland inundation dynamics in a model of land surface climate: Evaluation in the Niger inland delta region, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D23114, doi:10.1029/2010JD014474, 2010.
20. Decharme, B., Douville, H., Prigent, C., Papa, F., and Aires, F.: A new river flooding scheme for global climate applications: Off-line evaluation over South America, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D11110, doi:10.1029/2007JD009376, 2008.
21. Decharme, B., Alkama, R., Douville, H., Prigent, C., Papa, F., and Faroux, S.: Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP flood model, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1389-1412, doi:10.1007/s00382-011- 1054-9, 2011.
22. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., Bauer, P., Bechtold, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Delsol, C., Dragani, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A. J., Haimberger, L., Healy, S. B., Hersbach, H., H'olm, E. V., Isaksen, L., Kallberg, P., Kodie;hler, M., Matricardi, M., McNally, P., Monge-Sanz, B. M., Morcrette, J. J., Park, B. K., Peubey, C., de Rosnay, P., Tavolato, C., Th'epaut, J. N., and Vitart, F.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828, 2011.
23. Di Baldassarre, G., Schumann, G., Solomatine, D., Kun, Y., and Bates, P. D.: Can we map floodplains globally?, Geophys. Res. Abstr., EGU2011-5694-1, EGU General Assembly 2011, Vienna, Austria, 2011.
24. Di Baldassarre, G., Schumann, G., Solomatine, D., Kun, Y., and Bates, P. D.: Global flood mapping: current issues and future directions. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics (HIC 2012), Hamburg, Germany, 2012.
25. Doswell III, C. A., Davies-Jones, R., and Keller, D. L.: On summary measures of skill in rare event forecasting based on contingency tables, Weather Forecast., 5, 576-586, 1990.
26. Ducharne, A., Golaz, C., Leblois, E., Laval, K., Polcher, J., Ledoux, E., and de Marsily, G.: Development of a High Resolution Runoff Routing Model, Calibration and Application to Assess Runoff from the LMD GCM, J. Hydrol., 280, 207-228, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00230-0, 2003. (Pubitemid 37171974)
27. Dutra, E., Balsamo, G., Viterbo, P., Miranda, P. M. A., Beljaars, A., Schar, C., and Elder, K.: An Improved Snow Scheme for the ECMWF Land Surface Model: Description and Offline Validation, J. Hydrometeorol., 11, 899-916, doi:10.1175/2010jhm1249.1, 2010.
28. Dutra, E., Kotlarski, S., Viterbo, P., Balsamo, G., Miranda, P. M. A., Schar, C., Bissolli, P., and Jonas, T.: Snow cover sensitivity to horizontal resolution, parameterizations, and atmospheric forcing in a land surface model, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D21109, doi:10.1029/2011jd016061, 2011.
29. ECMWF: The ECMWF Strategy 2011-2020, available at: http://www.ecmwf.int/ about//programmatic/strategy/ Strategy-2011-20-v2.6-1.pdf (last access: 11 April 2002), 2010.
30. EXCIMAP (European Exchange Circle on Flood Mapping): Handbook of good practices in flood mapping and an Atlas of Flood Maps, available at: http://floods.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ flood-risk/excimap-handbook-on-flood-mapping (last access: 13 April 2012), 2007.
31. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA): Modernizing FEMAs flood hazard mapping program, available at: http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do? id=2218 (last access: 20 September 2012), 2003.
32. Gandin, K. S. and Murphy, A. H.: Equitable scores for categorical forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 120, 361-370, 1992.
33. Haddeland, I., Clark, D. B., Franssen, W., Ludwig, F., Voss, F., Arnell, N. W., Bertrand, N., Best, M., Folwell, S., Gerten, D., Gomes, S., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hanasaki, N., Harding, R., Heinke, J., Kabat, P., Koirala, S., Oki, T., Polcher, J., Stacke, T., Viterbo, P., Weedon, G. P., and Yeh, P.: Multimodel Estimate of the Global Terrestrial Water Balance: Setup and First Results, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 869-884, doi:10.1175/2011jhm1324.1, 2011.
34. Hagen, E. and Lu, X. X.: Let us create flood hazard maps for developing countries, Nat. Hazards, 58, 841-843 doi:10.1007/s11069- 011-9750-7, 2011.
35. Herold, C. and Mouton, F.: Global flood hazard mapping using statistical peak flow estimates, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 8, 305-363, doi:10.5194/hessd-8-305-2011, 2011.
36. Herold, C., Mouton, F., Verdin, K., Verdin, J., Brackenridge, R., Liu, Z., Tyagi, A., and Grabs, W.: Floods, Appendix 1: Global Risk Analysis, Global Assessment Report 2009, available at: http://www.preventionweb.net/english/ hyogo/gar/appendices/ documents/Appendix-1.doc (last access: 11 April 2012), 2011.
37. Hogan, R. J., Ferro, C. A. T., Jolliffe, I. T., and Stephenson, D. B.: Equitability Revisited: Why the 'Equitable Threat Score' Is Not Equitable, Weather Forecast., 25, 710-726, doi:10.1175/2009WAF2222350.1, 2010.
38. Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Bolvin, D. T., and Gu, G.: Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP Version 2.1, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L17808, doi:10.1029/2009gl040000, 2009.
39. IACWD (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data): Guidelines for determining flood-flow frequency: Bulletin 17B of the Hydrology Subcommittee, Office of Water Data Coordination, US Geological Survey, Reston, Va., 183 pp., available at: http: //water.usgs.gov/osw/bulletin17b/bulletin 17B.html, 1982.
40. Kappes, M. S., Gruber, K., and Frigerio, S.: The MultiRISK platform: The technical concept and application of a regional-scale multihazard exposure analysis tool, Geomorphology, 151, 139- 155, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2012.01.024, 2012.
41. Kavetski, D. and Clark, M. P.: Ancient numerical daemons of conceptual hydrological modeling: 2. Impact of time stepping schemes on model analysis and prediction, Water Resour. Res., 46, W10511, doi:10.1029/2009WR008896, 2010.
42. Loveland, T. R., Reed, B. C., Brown, J. F., Ohlen, D. O., Zhu, Z., Yang, L., and Merchant, J. W.: Development of a global land cover characteristics database and IGBP DISCover from 1 km AVHRR data, Int. J. Remote Sens., 21, 1303-1330, 2000 (Pubitemid 30242137)
43. Masutomi, Y., Inui, Y., Takahashi, K., and Matsuoka, Y.: Development of highly accurate global polygonal drainage basin data, Hydrol. Process., 23, 572-584, doi:10.1002/hyp.7186, 2009.
44. McMillan, H. and Brasington, J.: End-to-end flood risk assessment: A coupled model cascade with uncertainty estimation,Water Resour. Res., 44, W03419, doi:10.1029/2007WR005995, 2008. (Pubitemid 351628549)
45. McMillan, H. and Brasington, J.: End-to-end flood risk assessment: A coupled model cascade with uncertainty estimation,Water Resour. Res., 44, W03419, doi:10.1029/2007WR005995, 2008. (Pubitemid 351628549)
46. Mehlhorn, J., Feyen, F., Banovsky, I., and Menzinger, I.: FRAT1.0 - an example of applying the Geomorphologic Regression approach for detailed single location flood risk assessment, Geophys. Res. Abstr., EGU05-A-07419, EGU General Assembly 2005, Vienna, Austria, 2005.
47. Merwade, V., Olivera, F., Arabi, M., and Edleman, S.: Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Mapping: Current Issues and Future Directions, J. Hydrol. Eng., 13, 608-620, 2008. (Pubitemid 351865528)
48. Merz, R. and Bloeschl, G.: Flood frequency regionalisation - spatial proximity vs catchment attributes, J. Hydrol., 302, 283-306, 2005. (Pubitemid 40020311)
49. Merz, R. and Blodie;schl, G.: Flood frequency hydrology: 1. Temporal, spatial, and causal expansion of information,Water Resour. Res., 44, W08432, doi:10.1029/2007WR006744, 2008.
50. Miller, J. R., Russell, G. L., and Caliri, G.: Continental-scale river flow in climate models, J. Climate, 7, 914-928, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1994) 0070914:CSRFIC2.0.CO;2, 1994.
51. Mitsch, W. J. and Gosselink, J. G.: Wetlands, New York, USA: Wiley, 2000.
52. Padi, P., Di Baldassarre, G., and Castellarin, A.: Floodplain management in Africa: large scale analysis of flood data, Phys. Chem. Earth, Special issue on Recent advances in mapping and modelling flood processes in lowland areas, 36, 292-298, doi:10.1016/j.pce.2011.02.002, 2011.
53. Pappenberger, F. and Beven, K. J.: Ignorance is bliss - or 7 reasons not to use uncertainty analysis,Water Resour. Res., 42, W05302, doi:10.1029/ 2005WR004820, 2006. (Pubitemid 43955900)
54. Pappenberger, F., Beven, K. J., Hunter, N. M., Bates, P. D., Gouweleeuw, B. T., Thielen, J., and de Roo, A. P. J.: Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 381-393, doi:10.5194/hess-9-381-2005, 2005. (Pubitemid 41555695)
55. Pappenberger, F., Matgen, P., Beven, K. J., Henry, J. B., Pfister, L., and Fraipont de, P.: Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions, Adv.Water Resour., 29, 1430-1449, 2006. (Pubitemid 44522816)
56. Pappenberger, F., Cloke, H. L., Balsamo, G., Oki, P., and Ngo-Duc, T.: Global routing of surface and subsurface runoff produced by the hydrological component of the ECMWF NWP system, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 2155-2174, 2010.
57. Pappenberger, F., Thielen, J., and del Medico, M.: The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1091-1113, doi:10.1002/hyp.7772, 2011.
58. Porter, J.: The Extreme Flood Outline: Co-Producing Flood Risk Mapping and Spatial Planning in England, PhD Thesis (unpublished), King's College London, 2010.
59. Porter, J. and Demeritt, D.: Flood Risk Management, Mapping and Planning: The Institutional Politics of Decision-Support in England, Environment & Planning A., 44, 2359-2378, doi:10.1068/a44660, 2012.
60. Prinos, P., Kortenhaus, A., Swerpel, B., and Jim'enez, J. A.: Review on Flood Hazard Mapping, FLOODsite report T03-07-01, available at: www.floodsite.net (last access: 20 September 2012), 2009.
61. Ramsar and IUCN: Wetlands and global change [www document], available at: http://www.ramsar.org/key unfccc bkgd.htm (last access: 8 May 2012), 1999.
62. Reed, D. W., Faulkner, D., Robson, A., Houghton-Carr, H., and Bayliss, A. C.: Flood Estimation Handbook, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (30 April 2002) ISBN-10: 094854094X, 2002.
63. Schumann, G., Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., Matgen, P., and Pappenberger, F.: Progress in integration of remote sensing-derived flood extent and stage data and hydraulic models, Rev. Geophys., 47, RG4001, doi:10.1029/2008RG000274, 2009.
64. Shaw, E. M., Beven, K. J., Chappell, N. A., and Lamb, R.: Hydrology in Practice, 4th Edn., Taylor and Francis, Abingdon/Spon Press, London, 2011.
65. Stephenson, D. B., Casati, B., Ferro, C. A. T., and Wilson, C. A.: The extreme dependency score: a non-vanishing measure for forecasts of rare events, Meteorol. Appl., 15, 41-50, 2008.
66. SwissRe: available at: http://www.swissre.com/clients/insurers/ property casualty/Swiss Re Global Flood Zones enabling better business decisions.html (last access: 16 April 2012), 2012.
67. Szczypta, C., Calvet, J.-C., Albergel, C., Balsamo, G., Boussetta, S., Carrer, D., Lafont, S., and Meurey, C.: Verification of the new ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis over France, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 647-666, doi:10.5194/hess-15-647-2011, 2011.
68. Thielen, J., Bartholmes, J., Ramos, M.-H., and de Roo, A.: The European Flood Alert System - Part 1: Concept and development, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 125-140, doi:10.5194/hess-13-125- 2009, 2009a.
69. Thielen, J., Bogner, K., Pappenberger, F., Kalas, M., del Medico, M., and de Roo, A.: Monthly-, medium- and short range flood warning: testing the limits of predictability, Meteorol. Appl., 16, 77-90, 2009b.
70. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat (UNISDR): Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011, available at: http://www.preventionweb. net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/home/index.html (last access: 25 September 2012), 2011.
71. van Alphen, J., Martini, F., Loat, R., Slomp, R., and Passchier, R.: Flood risk mapping in Europe, experiences and best practices, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2, 285-292, doi:10.1111/j.1753-318X.2009.01045.x, 2009.
72. Viterbo, P., Beljaars, A., Mahfouf, J. F., and Teixeira, J.: The representation of soil moisture freezing and its impact on the stable boundary layer, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2401-2426, doi:10.1002/qj.49712555904, 1999. (Pubitemid 30024882)
73. Voisin, N., Pappenberger, F., Lettenmaier, D. P., Buizza, R., and Schaake, J. C.: Application of a Medium-Range Global Hydrologic Probabilistic Forecast Scheme to the Ohio River Basin, Weather Forecast., 26, 425-446, 2011.
74. Weedon, G. P., Gomes, S., Viterbo, P., Shuttleworth, W. J., Blyth, E., O sterle, H., Adam, H., Bellouin, N., Boucher, O., and Best, M.: Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century, J. Hydrometeorol., 12, 823-848, 2012.
75. Willis: Global Flood Model Initiative, available at: http://www. willisresearchnetwork.com/news/wrn-news/ willis-announces-global-flood-model- initiative.html (last access: 20 September 2012), 2012.
76. Winsemius, H. C., van Beek, L., Bouwman, A., Ward, P. J., and Jongman, B.: A framework for global river flood risk assessments, Geophys. Res. Abstr., EGU2012-6237, EGU General Assembly 2012, Vienna, Austria, 2012.
77. WMO: APFM Technical Document No. 15, Flood Management Tools Series, www.apfm.info/pdf/ifm tools/Flood Emergency Management.pdf (last access: 25 September 2012), 2011.
78. Woo, M. K. and Waylen, P.: Areal prediction of annual floods generated by two distinct processes, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 29, 75-88, 1984.
79. Yamazaki, D., Oki, T., and Kanae, S.: Deriving a global river network map and its sub-grid topographic characteristics from a fine-resolution flow direction map, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2241-2251, doi:10.5194/hess-13- 2241-2009, 2009.
80. Yamazaki, D., Kanae, S., Kim, H., and Oki, T.: A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model, Water Resour. Res., 47, W04501, doi:10.1029/2010WR009726, 2011.
81. Yamazaki, D., Lee, H., Alsdorf, D. E., Dutra, E., Kim, H., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: Analysis of the water level dynamics simulated by a global river model: A case study in the Amazon River,Water Resour. Res., 48, W09508, doi:10.1029/2012wr011869, 2012.