Estimating infectious disease transmission distances using the overall distribution of cases

Epidemics

Volumn 17, Issue , 2016, Pages 10-18

  Salje, Henrik ^a,b,c   Cummings, Derek A T ^a,b,d   Lessler, Justin ^a,d  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b INSTITUT PASTEUR   (France)

^c CNRS   (France)

^d UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

Author keywords

Epidemiology; Foot and mouth disease; Infectious disease; Outbreaks; Transmission distance

Indexed keywords

ANALYTIC METHOD; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE SIMULATION; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; INFECTION; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL COMPUTING; MEDICAL INFORMATION; POPULATION RESEARCH; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SYMPTOM; UNITED KINGDOM; ANIMAL; CONTACT EXAMINATION; HUMAN;

ANIMALS; CONTACT TRACING; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; DISEASE TRANSMISSION, INFECTIOUS; FOOT-AND-MOUTH DISEASE; HUMANS; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84991728151     PISSN: 17554365     EISSN: 18780067     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.10.001     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Assiri, A., McGeer, A., Perl, T.M., Price, C.S., Al Rabeeah, A.A., Cummings, D.A.T., Alabdullatif, Z.N., Assad, M., Almulhim, A., Makhdoom, H., Madani, H., Alhakeem, R., Al-Tawfiq, J.A., Cotten, M., Watson, S.J., Kellam, P., Zumla, A.I., Memish, Z.A., KSA MERS-CoV Investigation Team, Hospital outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. N. Engl. J. Med. 369 (2013), 407–416, 10.1056/NEJMoa1306742.
2. Bhoomiboonchoo, P., Gibbons, R.V., Huang, A., Yoon, I.-K., Buddhari, D., Nisalak, A., Chansatiporn, N., Thipayamongkolgul, M., Kalanarooj, S., Endy, T., Rothman, A.L., Srikiatkhachorn, A., Green, S., Mammen, M.P., Cummings, D.A., Salje, H., The spatial dynamics of dengue virus in Kamphaeng Phet. Thailand PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 8, 2014, e3138, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003138.
3. Bovet, P., Benhamou, S., Spatial analysis of animals’ movements using a correlated random walk model. J. Theor. Biol. 131 (1988), 419–433, 10.1016/S0022-5193(88)80038-9.
4. Cleveland, W.S., Grosse, E., Shyu, W.M., Local Regression Models. Statistical Models in S. 1992.
5. Codling, E.A., Plank, M.J., Benhamou, S., Random walk models in biology. J. R. Soc. Interface 5 (2008), 813–834, 10.1098/rsif.2008.0014.
6. Cotten, M., Watson, S.J., Kellam, P., Al Rabeeah, A.A., Makhdoom, H.Q., Assiri, A., Al-Tawfiq, J.A., Alhakeem, R.F., Madani, H., AlRabiah, F.A., Hajjar, S.A., Al-nassir, W.N., Albarrak, A., Flemban, H., Balkhy, H.H., Alsubaie, S., Palser, A.L., Gall, A., Bashford-Rogers, R., Rambaut, A., Zumla, A.I., Memish, Z.A., Transmission and evolution of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in Saudi Arabia: a descriptive genomic study. Lancet 382 (2013), 1993–2002, 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61887-5.
7. Davies, G., The foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the United Kingdom 2001. Comp. Immunol. 25 (2002), 331–343.
8. Faye, O., Boëlle, P.-Y., Heleze, E., Faye, O., Loucoubar, C., Magassouba, N., Soropogui, B., Keita, S., Gakou, T., Bah, E.H.I., Koivogui, L., Sall, A.A., Cauchemez, S., Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry Guinea, in 2014: an observational study. Lancet Infect. Dis. 15 (2015), 320–326, 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71075-8.
9. Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., Anderson, R.M., The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science 292 (2001), 1155–1160, 10.1126/science.1061020.
10. Ferguson, N.M., Donnelly, C.A., Anderson, R.M., Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. Nature 413 (2001), 542–548, 10.1038/35097116.
11. Grabowski, M.K., Lessler, J., Redd, A.D., Kagaayi, J., Laeyendecker, O., Ndyanabo, A., Nelson, M.I., Cummings, D.A.T., Bwanika, J.B., Mueller, A.C., Reynolds, S.J., Munshaw, S., Ray, S.C., Lutalo, T., Manucci, J., Tobian, A.A.R., Chang, L.W., Beyrer, C., Jennings, J.M., Nalugoda, F., Serwadda, D., Wawer, M.J., Quinn, T.C., Gray, R.H., Gray, R.H., The role of viral introductions in sustaining community-based HIV epidemics in rural Uganda: evidence from spatial clustering, phylogenetics, and egocentric transmission models. PLoS Med., 11, 2014, e1001610, 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001610.
12. Haydon, D.T., Chase-Topping, M., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Friar, J.K., Wilesmith, J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., The construction and analysis of epidemic trees with reference to the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth outbreak. Proc. Biol. Sci. 270 (2003), 121–127, 10.1098/rspb.2002.2191.
13. Iles, J.C., Raghwani, J., Harrison, G.L.A., Pepin, J., Djoko, C.F., Tamoufe, U., LeBreton, M., Schneider, B.S., Fair, J.N., Tshala, F.M., Kayembe, P.K., Muyembe, J.J., Edidi-Basepeo, S., Wolfe, N.D., Simmonds, P., Klenerman, P., Pybus, O.G., Phylogeography and epidemic history of hepatitis C virus genotype 4 in Africa. Virology 464-465 (2014), 233–243, 10.1016/j.virol.2014.07.006.
14. Kareiva, P.M., Shigesada, N., Analyzing insect movement as a correlated random walk. Oecologia 56 (1983), 234–238.
15. Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D.T., Cornell, S.J., Kappey, J., Wilesmith, J., Grenfell, B.T., Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294 (2001), 813–817, 10.1126/science.1065973.
16. Keeling, M.J., Brooks, S.P., Gilligan, C.A., Using conservation of pattern to estimate spatial parameters from a single snapshot. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 101 (2004), 9155–9160, 10.1073/pnas.0400335101.
17. Lin, H., Shin, S., Blaya, J.A., Zhang, Z., Cegielski, P., Contreras, C., Asencios, L., Bonilla, C., Bayona, J., Paciorek, C.J., Cohen, T., Assessing spatiotemporal patterns of multidrug-resistant and drug-sensitive tuberculosis in a South American setting. Epidemiol. Infect. 139 (2011), 1784–1793, 10.1017/S0950268810002797.
18. Matérn, B., Spatial variation. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol. 36, 1986, Springer.
19. Morrison, A.C., Getis, A., Santiago, M., Rigau-Perez, J.G., Reiter, P., Exploratory space-time analysis of reported dengue cases during an outbreak in Florida, Puerto Rico, 1991–1992. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 58 (1998), 287–298.
20. Nathan, R., Muller-Landau, H., Spatial patterns of seed dispersal, their determinants and consequences for recruitment. Trends Ecol. Evol. (Amst.) 15 (2000), 278–285.
21. Neri, F.M., Cook, A.R., Gibson, G.J., Gottwald, T.R., Gilligan, C.A., Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes. PLoS Comput. Biol., 10, 2014, e1003587, 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003587.
22. Nishiura, H., Time variations in the generation time of an infectious disease: implications for sampling to appropriately quantify transmission potential. Math. Biosci. Eng. 7 (2010), 851–869.
23. Pybus, O.G., Suchard, M.A., Lemey, P., Bernardin, F.J., Rambaut, A., Crawford, F.W., Gray, R.R., Arinaminpathy, N., Stramer, S.L., Busch, M.P., Delwart, E.L., Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 109 (2012), 15066–15071, 10.1073/pnas.1206598109.
24. Rabaa, M.A., Ty Hang, V.T., Wills, B., Farrar, J., Simmons, C.P., Holmes, E.C., Phylogeography of recently emerged DENV-2 in southern Viet Nam. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 4, 2010, e766, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000766.
25. Rabaa, M.A., Klungthong, C., Yoon, I.-K., Holmes, E.C., Chinnawirotpisan, P., Thaisomboonsuk, B., Srikiatkhachorn, A., Rothman, A.L., Tannitisupawong, D., Aldstadt, J., Nisalak, A., Mammen, M.P., Gibbons, R.V., Endy, T.P., Fansiri, T., Scott, T.W., Jarman, R.G., Frequent in-migration and highly focal transmission of dengue viruses among children in Kamphaeng Phet. Thailand PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 7, 2013, e1990, 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001990.
26. Salje, H., Lessler, J., Endy, T.P., Curriero, F.C., Gibbons, R.V., Nisalak, A., Nimmannitya, S., Kalayanarooj, S., Jarman, R.G., Thomas, S.J., Burke, D.S., Cummings, D.A.T., Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 109 (2012), 9535–9538, 10.1073/pnas.1120621109.
27. Salje, H., Cauchemez, S., Theresa Alera, M., Rodriguez-Barraquer, I., Thaisomboonsuk, B., Srikiatkhachorn, A., Lago, C.B., Villa, D., Klungthong, C., Tac-An, I.A., Fernandez, S., Velasco, J.M., Roque, V.G., Nisalak, A., Macareo, L.R., Levy, J.W., Cummings, D., Yoon, I.-K., Reconstruction of 60 years of chikungunya epidemiology in the Philippines demonstrates episodic and focal transmission. J. Infect. Dis., 2015, 10.1093/infdis/jiv470.
28. Stack, J.C., Welch, J.D., Ferrari, M.J., Shapiro, B.U., Grenfell, B.T., Protocols for sampling viral sequences to study epidemic dynamics. J. R. Soc. Interface 7 (2010), 1119–1127, 10.1098/rsif.2009.0530.
29. Ster, I.C., Ferguson, N.M., Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain. PLoS One, 2007.
30. Wallinga, J., Teunis, P., Different epidemic curves for severe acute respiratory syndrome reveal similar impacts of control measures. Am. J. Epidemiol. 160 (2004), 509–516, 10.1093/aje/kwh255.