Large-scale drivers of malaria and priority areas for prevention and control in the Brazilian Amazon region using a novel multi-pathogen geospatial model

Malaria Journal

Volumn 13, Issue 1, 2014, Pages

  Valle, Denis ^a   Tucker Lima, Joanna M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian model; Brazilian amazon; Forest cover; Geospatial model; Gold mining; Hotspot; Malaria; Malaria risk maps; Migration; Plasmodium falciparum

Indexed keywords

RAIN;

AMAZONAS (BRAZIL); ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; DEFORESTATION; DISEASE ASSOCIATION; FOREST; FOREST COVER; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM; HEALTH PROGRAM; HUMAN; HYDROPOWER; INCIDENCE; INCOME; INFECTION RISK; MALARIA; MALARIA CONTROL; METHODOLOGY; MINING; MORTALITY RATE; PATHOGENESIS; PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; PLASMODIUM VIVAX; POPULATION MIGRATION; POPULATION SIZE; PREDICTION; READING; REMOTE SENSING; RISK FACTOR; RURAL POPULATION; SEASON; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE; TRAFFIC AND TRANSPORT; UNCERTAINTY; BRAZIL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; EPIDEMIOLOGY; GEOGRAPHY; MALARIA, FALCIPARUM; MALARIA, VIVAX; PROCEDURES; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOCIOECONOMICS; STATISTICAL MODEL;

BRAZIL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; EPIDEMIOLOGIC METHODS; GEOGRAPHY; HUMANS; MALARIA, FALCIPARUM; MALARIA, VIVAX; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS; SPATIAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 84988850589     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14752875     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-13-443     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Partners RBM: The global malaria action plan for a malaria-free world. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2008.
2. Oliveira-Ferreira J, Lacerda MVG, Brasil P, Ladislau JLB, Tauil PL, Daniel-Ribeiro CT: Malaria in Brazil: An overview. Malar J 2010, 9:115.
3. Olson SH, Gangnon RE, Elguero E, Durieux L, Guegan J-F, Foley JA, Patz JA: Links between climate, malaria, and wetlands in the Amazon Basin. Emerging Infect Dis 2009, 15:659-662.
4. Hahn MB, Gangnon RE, Barcellos C, Asner GP, Patz JA: Influence of deforestation, logging, and fire on malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. PLOS One 2014, 9:e85725.
5. Achcar JA, Martinez EZ, de Souza ADP, Tachibana VM, Flores EF: Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon forest: malaria count data. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2011, 44:749-754.
6. Valle D, Clark J: Conservation efforts may increase malaria burden in the Brazilian Amazon. PLOS One 2013, 8:e57519.
7. Finer M, Jenkins CN: Proliferation of hydroelectric dams in the Andean Amazon and implications for Andes-Amazon connectivity. PLOS One 2012, 7:e35126.
8. Ministerio de Minas e Energia: Plano decenal de expansao de energia 2020. Brasilia: Distrito Federal; 2011.
9. Barreto ML, Teixeira MG, Bastos FI, Ximenes RAA, Barata RB, Rodrigues LC: Successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil: social and environmental context, policies, interventions, and research needs. Lancet 2011, 377:1877-1889.
10. WHO: World Malaria Report 2011. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2011.
11. Waller LA, Gotway CA: Applied spatial statistics for public health data. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley & Sons; 2004.
12. Carlton J, Sina B, Adams J: Why is Plasmodium vivax a neglected tropical disease? PLOS Negl Trop Dis 2011, 5:e1160.
13. Laboratorio de Informacao em Saude ICICT-Fiocruz: Observatorio Climate e Saude. http://www.climasaude.icict.fiocruz.br/.
14. Parry L, Day B, Amaral S, Peres C: Drivers of rural exodus from Amazonian headwaters. Popul Environ 2010, 32:137-176.
15. Parry L, Peres C, Day B, Amaral S: Rural-urban migration brings conservation threats and opportunities to Amazonian watersheds. Conserv Lett 2010, 3:251-259.
16. INPE, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais: Projeto Prodes: Monitoramento da floresta Amazonica Brasileira por satelite. http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/index.php.
17. NASA: 3B43: Monthly 0.25 × 0.25 degree merged TRMM and other sources estimates. http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/mirador/presentNavigation.pl? tree=project&project=TRMM&dataGroup=Gridded&dataset=3B43:% 20Monthly%200.25%20×%200.25%20degree%20merged%20TRMM%20and% 20other%20sources%20estimates&version=006.
18. Baker IT, Prihodko L, Denning AS, Goulden M, Miller S, da Rocha HR: Seasonal drought strees in the Amazon: reconciling models and observations. J Geophys Res 2008, 113:G00B01.
19. Saleska SR, Miller SD, Matross DM, Goulden ML, Wofsy SC, da Rocha HR, de Camargo PB, Crill P, Daube BC, de Freitas HC, Hutyra L, Keller M, Kirchhoff V, Menton M, Munger JW, Pyle EH, Rice AH, Silva H: Carbon in Amazon forests: unexpected seasonal fluxes and disturbance-induced losses. Science 2003, 302:1554-1557.
20. Carroll M, Townshend J, DiMiceli C, Noojipady P, Sohlberg R: A new global raster water mask at 250 m resolution. Int J Digital Earth 2009, 2:291-308.
21. DNPM: Departamento Nacional de Producao Mineral. http://sigmine.dnpm. gov.br/webmap/.
22. ANEEL: Brazilian Electricity Regulatory Agency. http://sigel.aneel.gov.br/kmz. html.
23. SIDRA-IBGE: Censo Demografico e Contagem da Populacao. www.sidra.ibge. gov.br.
24. Banerjee S, Carlin BP, Gelfand AE: Hierarchical modeling and analysis of spatial data. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC; 2004.
25. Gelman A: Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models. Bayesian Anal 2006, 1:515-533.
26. Wikle CK: Hierarchical modeling with spatial data. In Handbook of Spatial Statistics. Edited by Gelfand AE, Diggle PJ, Fuentes M, Guttorp P. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press; 2010.
27. Zhao K, Valle D, Popescu S, Zhang X, Mallick B: Hyperspectral remote sensing of plant biochemistry using Bayesian model averaging with variable and band selection. Remote Sens Environ 2013, 132:102-119.
28. R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2013.
29. Crompton P, Ventura AM, de Souza JM, Santos E, Strickland GT, Silbergeld E: Assessment of mercury exposure and malaria in a Brazilian Amazon riverine community. Environ Res 2002, 90:69-75.
30. Barbieri AF, Sawyer DO, Soares-Filho BS: Population and land use effects on malaria prevalence in the Southern Brazilian Amazon. Hum Ecol 2005, 33:847-874.
31. de Oliveira EC, dos Santos ES, Zeilhofer P, Souza-Santos R, Atanaka-Santos M: Spatial patterns of malaria in a land reform colonization project, Juruena municipality, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Malar J 2011, 10:177.
32. Braz RM, Duarte EC, Tauil PL: Caracterizacao das epidemias de malaria nos municipios da Amazonia Brasileira em 2010. Cad Saude Publica 2013, 29:935-944.
33. da Silva-Nunes M: Impacto de alteracoes ambientais na transmissao da malaria e perspectivas para o controle da doenca em areas de assentamento rural da Amazonia Brasileira. Oecologia Australis 2010, 14:603-622.
34. Gelman A, Price P: All maps of parameter estimates are misleading. Stat Med 1999, 18:3221-3234.
35. Waller L, Carlin B: Disease Mapping. In Handbook of spatial statistics. Edited by Gelfand AE, Diggle PJ, Fuentes M, Guttorp P. Boca Raton, FL: Taylor & Francis/CRC; 2010:217-244.
36. Wall MM: A close look at the spatial structure implied by the CAR and SAR models. J Stat Plan Inference 2004, 121:311-324.
37. Best N, Richardson S, Thomson A: A comparison of Bayesian spatial models for disease mapping. Stat Methods Med Res 2005, 14:35-59.
38. Wikle CK: Low-rank representations for spatial processes. In Handbook of Spatial Statistics. Edited by Gelfand AE, Diggle PJ, Fuentes M, Guttorp P. Boca Raton, FL: Taylor & Francis/CRC; 2010:107-118.
39. Banerjee S, Gelfand AE, Finley AO, Sang H: Gaussian predictive process models for large spatial data sets. J R Stat Soc Series B Stat Methodol 2008, 70:825-848.
40. Valle D, Clark J: Improving the modeling of disease data from the government surveillance system: A case study on malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. PLOS Comput Biol 2013, 9:e1003312.
41. Gelfand AE, Vounatsou P: Proper multivariate conditional autoregressive models for spatial data analysis. Biostatistics 2003, 4:11-25.
42. Jin X, Carlin BP, Banerjee S: Generalized hierarchical multivariate CAR models for areal data. Biometrics 2005, 61:950-961.
43. Alves FP, Durlacher RR, Menezes MJ, Krieger H, da Silva LHP, Camargo EP: High prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum infections in native Amazonian populations. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2002, 66:641-648.
44. Ladeia-Andrade S, Ferreira MU, de Carvalho ME, Curado I, Coura JR: Age-dependent acquisition of protective immunity to malaria in riverine populations of the Amazon Basin of Brazil. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2009, 80:452-459.
45. Valle D, Clark JS, Zhao K: Enhanced understanding of infectious diseases by fusing multiple datasets: A case study on malaria in the Western Brazilian Amazon region. PLOS One 2011, 6:e27462.
46. Scopel KKG, Fontes CJF, Nunes AC, Horta MF, Braga EM: High prevalence of Plasmodium malariae infections in a Brazilian Amazon endemic area (Apiacas-Mato Grosso State) as detected by polymerase chain reaction. Acta Trop 2004, 90:61-64.
47. Cavasini MTV, Ribeiro WL, Kawamoto F, Ferreira MU: How prevalent is Plasmodium malariae in Rondonia, Western Brazilian Amazon. Rev Soc Bras Med Trop 2000, 33:489-492.
48. Galardo AKR, Arruda M, Couto AARD, Wirtz R, Lounibos LP, Zimmerman RH: Malaria vector incrimination in three rural riverine villages in the Brazilian Amazon. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2007, 76:461-469