Using modelling to predict impacts of sea level rise and increased turbidity on seagrass distributions in estuarine embayments

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Volumn 181, Issue , 2016, Pages 294-301

  Davis, Tom R ^a   Harasti, David ^b   Smith, Stephen D A ^a   Kelaher, Brendan P ^a  

^a SOUTHERN CROSS UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b NSW DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES   (Australia)

Author keywords

Australia; Climate change; New South Wales; Posidonia australis; Seagrass; Species distribution modelling

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; BIOGEOGRAPHY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING; ESTUARINE ENVIRONMENT; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; MOVEMENT; PREDICTION; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SEAGRASS; TURBIDITY;

AUSTRALIA; LAKE ILLAWARRA; MERIMBULA; NEW SOUTH WALES; PORT STEPHENS; WALLIS LAKE;

POSIDONIA AUSTRALIS; ZOSTERA MUELLERI;

EID: 84988005793     PISSN: 02727714     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2016.09.005     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Abal, E., Dennison, W., Seagrass depth range and water quality in southern Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. Mar. Freshw. Res. 47 (1996), 763–771 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/MF9960763.
2. Anthony, K., Ridd, P.V., Orpin, A.R., Larcombe, P., Lough, J., Temporal variation of light availability in coastal benthic habitats: effects of clouds, turbidity, and tides. Limnol. Oceanogr. 49 (2004), 2201–2211.
3. Barbier, E.B., Hacker, S.D., Kennedy, C., Koch, E.W., Stier, A.C., Silliman, B.R., The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services. Ecol. Monogr. 81 (2011), 169–193.
4. Bindoff, N.L., Stott, P.A., AchutaRao, M., Allen, M.R., Gillett, N., Gutzler, D., Hansingo, K., Hegerl, G., Hu, Y., Jain, S., Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional. Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change., 2013, 867–952 Cambridge, UK.
5. Björk, M., Short, F., Mcleod, E., Beer, S., Managing Seagrasses for Resilience to Climate Change. 2008, IUCN, Gland, Switzerland.
6. Bos, A.R., Bouma, T.J., de Kort, G.L., van Katwijk, M.M., Ecosystem engineering by annual intertidal seagrass beds: sediment accretion and modification. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 74 (2007), 344–348.
7. Bridges, K., Phillips, R., Young, P., Patterns of some seagrass distribution in the torres strait, Queensland. Mar. Freshw. Res. 33 (1982), 273–283.
8. Cambridge, M., Seagrasses of south-western Australia with special reference to the ecology of Posidonia australis Hook f. in a polluted environment. Aquat. Bot. 1 (1975), 149–161.
9. Campbell, S.J., McKenzie, L.J., Flood related loss and recovery of intertidal seagrass meadows in southern Queensland, Australia. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 60 (2004), 477–490 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2004.02.007.
10. Carr, J.A., D'Odorico, P., McGlathery, K.J., Wiberg, P.L., Modeling the effects of climate change on eelgrass stability and resilience: future scenarios and leading indicators of collapse. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 448 (2011), 289–301.
11. Carruthers, T., Dennison, W., Longstaff, B., Waycott, M., Abal, E., McKenzie, L., Long, W., Seagrass habitats of northeast Australia: models of key processes and controls. Bull. Mar. Sci. 71 (2002), 1153–1169.
12. Church, J.A., Clark, P.U., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J.M., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M., Milne, G., Nerem, R., Nunn, P., Sea Level Change. Climate Change 2013 the Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change., 2013, 1137–1216 Cambridge, UK.
13. Creese, R.G., Glasby, T.M., West, G., Gallen, C., Mapping the Habitats of NSW Estuaries, Industry & Investment NSW. 2009 (New South Wales, Australia).
14. Davis, T., Gallen, C., Laird, R., Harasti, D., Mapping Sub-tidal Habitats in the Eastern Port of Port Stephens. NSW Department of Primary Industries. 2015 (New South Wales, Australia).
15. Davis, T., Harasti, D., Smith, S., Developing a habitat classification typology for subtidal habitats in a temperate estuary in New South Wales, Australia. Mar. Freshw. Re. 67 (2016), 1186–1195.
16. Downie, A.-L., von Numers, M., Boström, C., Influence of model selection on the predicted distribution of the seagrass Zostera marina. Estuarine. Coast. Shelf Sci. 121 (2013), 8–19.
17. DPWS, Port Stephens Tidal Data Collection September 1993. NSW Department of Public Works and Services. 1998, Manly Hydraulics Laboratory (New South Wales, Australia).
18. Duarte, C.M., The future of seagrass meadows. Environ. Conserv. 29 (2002), 192–206.
19. Duarte, C.M., Marbà, N., Krause-Jensen, D., Sánchez-Camacho, M., Testing the predictive power of seagrass depth limit models. Estuaries Coasts 30 (2007), 652–656.
20. Dulvy, N.K., Sadovy, Y., Reynolds, J.D., Extinction vulnerability in marine populations. Fish Fish. 4 (2003), 25–64.
21. Elgin, Merimbula Lake: Environmental Monitoring in Coastal Lakes and Lagoons of Bega Valley Shire Council Region 2012-2013. 2014, Elgin Associates Pty Ltd, Bega, Australia.
22. Elgin, Pambula Lake: Environmental Monitoring in Coastal Lakes and Lagoons of Bega Valley Shire Council Region 2010-2013. 2014, Elgin Associates Pty Ltd, Bega, Australia.
23. Emanuel, K.A., Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 110 (2013), 12219–12224.
24. Fonseca, M., Whitfield, P.E., Kelly, N.M., Bell, S.S., Modeling seagrass landscape pattern and associated ecological attributes. Ecol. Appl. 12 (2002), 218–237.
25. Fonseca, M.S., Bell, S.S., Influence of physical setting on seagrass landscapes near Beaufort, North Carolina. USA. Mar. Ecology-Progress Ser. 171 (1998), 109–121.
26. Grech, A., Coles, R., An ecosystem-scale predictive model of coastal seagrass distribution. Aquatic Conservation Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 20 (2010), 437–444.
27. Greve, T., Krause-Jensen, D., Predictive modelling of eelgrass (Zostera marina) depth limits. Mar. Biol. 146 (2005), 849–858.
28. Guisan, A., Thuiller, W., Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol. Lett. 8 (2005), 993–1009.
29. Guisan, A., Zimmermann, N.E., Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol. Model. 135 (2000), 147–186.
30. Harasti, D., Declining seahorse populations linked to loss of essential marine habitats. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 546 (2016), 173–181.
31. Hervouet, J.-M., TELEMAC modelling system: an overview. Hydrol. Process. 14 (2000), 2209–2210.
32. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Bruno, J.F., The impact of climate change on the world's marine ecosystems. Science 328 (2010), 1523–1528.
33. Holmes, R.W., The Secchi disk in turbid coastal waters. Limnol. Oceanogr. 15 (1970), 688–694.
34. Infantes, E., Terrados, J., Orfila, A., Cañellas, B., Álvarez-Ellacuria, A., Wave energy and the upper depth limit distribution of Posidonia oceanica. Bot. Mar. 52 (2009), 419–427.
35. Jiang, A., Ranasinghe, R., Cowell, P., Savioli, J., Tidal asymmetry of a shallow, well-mixed estuary and the implications on net sediment transport: a numerical modelling study. Aust. J. Civ. Eng. 9 (2011), 1–18.
36. Kaschner, K., Watson, R., Trites, A., Pauly, D., Mapping world-wide distributions of marine mammal species using a relative environmental suitability (RES) model. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 316 (2006), 2–3.
37. Kelly, N.M., Fonseca, M., Whitfield, P., Predictive mapping for management and conservation of seagrass beds in North Carolina. Aquatic Conservation Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 11 (2001), 437–451.
38. Kendrick, G.A., Aylward, M.J., Hegge, B.J., Cambridge, M.L., Hillman, K., Wyllie, A., Lord, D.A., Changes in seagrass coverage in cockburn sound, western Australia between 1967 and 1999. Aquat. Bot. 73 (2002), 75–87.
39. Lathrop, R.G., Styles, R.M., Seitzinger, S.P., Bognar, J.A., Use of GIS mapping and modeling approaches to examine the spatial distribution of seagrasses in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey. Estuaries 24 (2001), 904–916.
40. Lotze, H.K., Lenihan, H.S., Bourque, B.J., Bradbury, R.H., Cooke, R.G., Kay, M.C., Kidwell, S.M., Kirby, M.X., Peterson, C.H., Jackson, J.B., Depletion, degradation, and recovery potential of estuaries and coastal seas. Science 312 (2006), 1806–1809.
41. Nearmap, 2014 https://au.nearmap.com/ accessed 8/10/2014.
42. Nelson, R.C., Depth limited design wave heights in very flat regions. Coast. Eng. 23 (1994), 43–59 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0378-3839(94)90014-0.
43. OzCoasts, Geoscience Australia. 2015 http://www.ozcoasts.gov.au/ accessed 5/12/2015.
44. Poulos, D., Gallen, C., Davis, T., Booth, D., Harasti, D., Distribution and spatial modelling of a soft coral habitat in the Port Stephens-Great Lakes Marine Park: implications for management. Mar. Freshw. Res. 67 (2015), 256–265 http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/MF14059.
45. 2 of seagrass in Hervey Bay, Queensland, Australia. Aquat. Bot. 52 (1995), 3–17.
46. Ready, J., Kaschner, K., South, A.B., Eastwood, P.D., Rees, T., Rius, J., Agbayani, E., Kullander, S., Froese, R., Predicting the distributions of marine organisms at the global scale. Ecol. Model. 221 (2010), 467–478.
47. Rohweder, J., Rogala, J., Johnson, B., Anderson, D., Clark, S., Chamberlin, F., Potter, D., Runyon, K., Application of Wind Fetch and Wave Models for Habitat Rehabilitation and Enhancement Projects–2012 Update. US Army Corps of Engineers. 2012, Minnesota, USA, St. Paul.
48. Short, F.T., Neckles, H.A., The effects of global climate change on seagrasses. Aquat. Bot. 63 (1999), 169–196.
49. Stewart, M., Fairfull, S., Primefact 629: Seagrasses. Department of Primary Industries. 2007 (New South Wales).
50. Stuart-Smith, R.D., Edgar, G.J., Stuart-Smith, J.F., Barrett, N.S., Fowles, A.E., Hill, N.A., Cooper, A.T., Myers, A.P., Oh, E.S., Pocklington, J.B., Loss of native rocky reef biodiversity in Australian metropolitan embayments. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 95 (2015), 324–332.
51. USACE, Shore Protection Manual. 1984, US Army Corps of Engineers, Washington, DC, USA.
52. Van der Heide, T., Peeters, E., Hermus, D., Van Katwijk, M., Roelofs, J., Smolders, A., Predicting habitat suitability in temperate seagrass ecosystems. Limnol. Oceanogr. 54 (2009), 2018–2024.
53. Waycott, M., Collier, C., McMahon, K., Ralph, P., McKenzie, L., Udy, J., Grech, A., Vulnerability of Seagrasses in the Great Barrier Reef to Climate Change. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office. 2007 (Queensland).
54. West, G., Williams, R., Authority, N.M., Wales, N.S., A Preliminary Assessment of the Historical, Current and Future Cover of Seagrass in the Estuary of the Parramatta River. 2008, NSW Department of Primary Industries, New South Wales, Australia.