Life history predicts risk of species decline in a stochastic world

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 279, Issue 1738, 2012, Pages 2691-2697

  Van Allen, Benjamin G ^a,b   Dunham, Amy E ^a   Asquith, Christopher M ^b   Rudolf, Volker H W ^a  

^a RICE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Elasticity; Extinction; International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List; Life history; Stage based; Stochasticity

Indexed keywords

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; FORECASTING; LIFE CYCLE STAGE; POPULATION GROWTH; SPECIES DIFFERENCE; SPECIES EXTINCTION; STATISTICS;

ANIMALS; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ECOSYSTEM; EXTINCTION, BIOLOGICAL; FORECASTING; LIFE CYCLE STAGES; POPULATION GROWTH; SPECIES SPECIFICITY; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES;

EID: 84987723780     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712954     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2012.0185     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Leakey, R. & Lewin, R. 1995 The sixth extinction: biodiversity and its survival. London, UK: Phoenix.
2. Vitousek, P. M., Mooney, H. A., Lubchenco, J. & Melillo, J. M. 1997 Human domination of Earth’s ecosystems. Science 277, 494–499. (doi:10.1126/science.277.5325.494)
3. Pimm, S. L. & Raven, P. 1999 Extinction by numbers. Nature 403, 843–845. (doi:10.1038/35002708)
4. Ricketts, T. H. et al. 2005 Pinpointing and preventing imminent extinctions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 18 497–18 501. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0509060102)
5. Barnosky, A. D. et al. 2011 Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived? Nature 471, 51–57. (doi:10.1038/nature09678)
6. Raup, D. M. 1994 The role of extinction in evolution. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 91, 6758–6763. (doi:10.1073/pnas.91.15.6758)
7. McKinney, M. L. 1997 Extinction vulnerability and selectivity: combining ecological and paleontological views. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 28, 495–516. (doi:10. 1146/annurev.ecolsys.28.1.495)
8. Russell, G. J., Brooks, T. M., McKinney, M. M. & Anderson, C. G. 1998 Present and future taxonomic selectivity in bird and mammal extinctions. Conserv. Biol. 12, 1365–1376. (doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1998.96332.x)
9. Purvis, A., Gittlemand, J. L., Cowlishaw, G. & Mace, G. M. 2000 Predicting extinction risk in declining species. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 267, 1947–1952. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2000.1234)
10. Boyer, A. G. 2010 Consistent ecological selectivity through time in Pacific island avian extinctions. Conserv. Biol. 24, 511–519. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01341.x)
11. Laurance, W. F. 1991 Ecological correlates of extinction proneness in Australian tropical rainforest mammals. Conserv. Biol. 5, 80–89. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.1991.tb00390.x)
12. Gaston, K. J. & Blackburn, T. M. 1996 Conservation implications of geographic range size–body size relationships. Conserv. Biol. 10, 638–646. (doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1996.10020638.x)
13. Bennett, P. M. & Owens, I. P. F. 1997 Variation in extinction risk among birds: chance or evolutionary predisposition? Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 264, 401–408. (doi:10.1098/rspb.1997.0057)
14. Foufopoulos, J. & Ives, A. R. 1999 Reptile extinctions on land-bridge islands: life-history attributes and vulnerability to extinction. Am. Nat. 153, 1–25.(doi:10.1086/303149)
15. Jablonski, D. 2004 Extinction: past and present. Nature 427, 589. (doi:10.1038/427589a)
16. Terborgh, J. & Winter, B. 1980 Some causes of extinction. In Conservation biology: an evolutionary–ecological perspective (eds M. E. Soule & B. A. Wilcox), pp. 119–133. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer.
17. Pimm, S. L., Jones, H. L. & Diamond, J. 1988 On the risk of extinction. Am. Nat. 132, 757–785. (doi:10.1086/284889)
18. Cardillo, M., Mace, G. M., Jones, K. E., Bielby, J., Bininda-Emonds, O. R. P., Sechrest, W., Orme, C. D. L. & Purvis, A. 2005 Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species. Science 309, 1239–1241. (doi:10.1126/science.1116030)
19. Angermeier, P. L. 1995 Ecological attributes of extinction prone species: loss of freshwater fishes of Virginia. Conserv. Biol. 9, 143–158. (doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739. 1995.09010143.x)
20. IUCN 2010 IUCN Red List of threatened species. Version 2010.2. See http://www.iucnredlist.org.
21. O’Grady, J. J., Reed, D. H., Brook, B. W. & Frankham, R. 2004 What are the best correlates of predicted extinction risk? Biol. Conserv. 118, 513–520. (doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2003.10.002)
22. Dale, V. H. et al. 2001 Climate change and forest disturbances. BioScience 51, 723–734. (doi:10.1641/0006-3568 (2001)051[0723:CCAFD]2.0.CO;2)
23. Diffenbaugh, N. S., Pal, J. S., Trapp, R. J. & Giorgi, F. 2005 Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 15 774–15 778. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0506042102)
24. Boyce, M. S., Haridas, C. V. & Lee, C. T. 2006 Demography in an increasingly variable world. Trends Ecol. Evol. 21, 141–148. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.018)
25. Hoffmann, W. A. 1999 Fire and population dynamics of woody plants in a neotropical savanna: matrix model projections. Ecology 80, 1354–1369. (doi:10.1890/ 0012-9658(1999)080[1354:FAPDOW]2.0.CO;2)
26. Both, C., Bouwhuis, S., Lessells, C. M. & Visser, M. E. 2006 Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441, 81–83. (doi:10. 1038/nature04539)
27. Dunham, A. E., Erhart, E. M. & Wright, P. C. 2011 Global climate cycles and cyclones: consequences for rainfall patterns and lemur reproduction in southeastern Madagascar. Global Change Biol. 17, 219–227. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02205.x)
28. Pfister, C. M. 1998 Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: evolutionary predictions and ecological implications. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 95, 213–218. (doi:10.1073/pnas.95.1.213)
29. Wilbur, H. M. & Rudolf, V. H. W. 2006 Life-history evolution in uncertain environments: bet hedging in time. Am. Nat. 168, 398–411. (doi:10.1086/506258)
30. Forbes, V. E., Olsen, M., Palmqvist, A. & Calow, P. 2010 Environmentally sensitive life-cycle traits have low elasticity: implications for theory and practice. Ecol. Appl. 20, 1449–1455. (doi:10.1890/09-1063.1)
31. Jonzen, N., Pople, T., Knape, J. & Skold, M. 2010 Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus. J. Anim. Ecol. 79, 109–116. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2656.2009.01601.x)
32. Morris, W. F. & Doak, D. F. 2004 Buffering of life histories against environmental stochasticity: accounting for spurious correlation between the variabilities of vital rates and their contributions to fitness. Am. Nat. 163, 579–590. (doi:10.1086/382550)
33. Silvertown, J., Franco, M., Pisanty, I. & Mendoza, A. 1993 Comparative plant demographics: relative importance of life-cycle components to the finite rate of increase in woody and herbaceous perennials. J. Ecol. 81, 465–476. (doi:10.2307/2261525)
34. Saether, B. & Bakke, O. 2000 Avian life history variation and contribution of demographic traits to the population growth rate. Ecology 81, 642–653.
35. Zera, A. J. & Harshman, L. G. 2001 The physiology of life history trade-offs in animals. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 32, 95–126. (doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.32.081501.114006)
36. Caswell, H. 2001 Matrix population models second edition. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates.
37. Tuljaparkur, S. 1990 Population dynamics in variable environments. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics. Berlin/ Heidelberg, Germany: Springer.
38. deKroon, H., Plaiser, A., van Groendael, J. & Caswell, H. 1986 Elasticity: the relative contribution of demographic parameters to population growth rate. Ecology 67, 1427–1431. (doi:10.2307/1938700)
39. R Core Development Team. 2011 R version 2.13.0. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
40. Anderson, D. R. 2008 Model based inference in the life sciences: a primer on evidence. New York, NY: Springer.
41. Nagelkerke, N. J. D. 1991 A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination. Biometrika 78, 691–692. (doi:10.1093/biomet/78.3.691)
42. Liow, H. L., Fortelius, M., Binghham, E., Lintulaakso, K., Mannila, H., Flynn, L. & Stenseth, N. C. 2008 Higher origination and extinction rates in larger mammals. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 6097–6102. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0709763105)
43. Heppel, S. S., Caswell, H. & Crowder, L. B. 2000 Life history and elasticity patterns: perturbations analysis for species with minimal demographic data. Ecology 81, 654–665. (doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2000)081[0654: LHAEPP]2.0.CO;2)
44. Mills, L. S., Doak, D. F. & Wisdom, M. J. 1999 Reliability of conservation actions based on elasticity analysis of matrix models. Conserv. Biol. 13, 815–829. (doi:10.1046/j.1523-1739.1999.98232.x)
45. Morris, W. F. & Doak, D. F. 2002 Quantitative conservation biology. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates.
46. Vonesh, J. R. & Cruz, O. D. 2002 Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian decline. Oecologia 133, 325–333. (doi:10.1007/s00442-002-1039-9)
47. Schrieber, S. & Rudolf, V. H. W. 2008 Crossing habitat boundaries: coupling dynamics of ecosystems through complex life cycles. Ecol. Lett. 11, 576–587. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2008.01171.x)
48. Van Allen, B. G., Briggs, V. S., McCoy, M. W. & Vonesh, J. R. 2010 Carry-over effects of the larval environment on juvenile performance in two hylid frogs. Oecologia 161, 891–898.
49. Gibbon, W. J. et al. 2000 The global decline of reptiles, déjà vu amphibians. BioOne 50, 653–666. (doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2000)050[0653:TGDORD]2.0.CO;2)
50. Joseph, L. N., Maloney, R. F. & Possingham, H. P. 2008 Optimal allocation of resources among threatened species: a project prioritization protocol. Conserv. Biol. 23, 328–338. (doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01124.x)