Heterogeneity in District-Level Transmission of Ebola Virus Disease during the 2013-2015 Epidemic in West Africa

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Volumn 10, Issue 7, 2016, Pages

  Krauer, Fabienne ^a   Gsteiger, Sandro ^a   Low, Nicola ^a   Hansen, Christian H ^b   Althaus, Christian L ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BERN   (Switzerland)

^b LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; ARTICLE; CELL HETEROGENEITY; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER; GROWTH RATE; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NONHUMAN; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; EBOLAVIRUS; EPIDEMIC; GENETICS; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HUMAN; ISOLATION AND PURIFICATION; PHYSIOLOGY; STATISTICAL MODEL; TRANSMISSION; VIROLOGY;

AFRICA, WESTERN; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; EBOLAVIRUS; HEMORRHAGIC FEVER, EBOLA; HUMANS; MODELS, STATISTICAL;

EID: 84980360912     PISSN: 19352727     EISSN: 19352735     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004867     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Towers S, Patterson-lomba O, Castillo-chavez C, Temporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreak. PLOS Curr Outbreaks. 2014;Sep18(1).
2. Plachouras D, Sudre B, Testa M, Robesyn E, Coulombier D, Letter to the editor: Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014 –Eurosurveillance 17 September 2014. Eurosurveillance. 2014Sep18;19(37):20907.
3. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Feedback from modelling to surveillance of Ebola virus disease. Eurosurveillance. 2014;Sep18(19(37)).
4. Chowell G, Viboud C, Hyman JM, Simonsen L, The Western Africa ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates. PLoS Curr. 2015;7(1).
5. Santermans E, Robesyn E, Ganyani T, Sudre B, Faes C, Quinten C, et al. Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ebola Virus Disease at Sub-National Level during the 2014 West Africa Epidemic: Model Scrutiny and Data Meagreness. PLoS One. 2016;11(1):e0147172. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.014717226771513
6. Merler S, Ajelli M, Fumanelli L, Gomes MFC, Piontti AP y, Rossi L, et al. Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: a computational modelling analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015Feb;15(2):204–11. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)71074-625575618
7. Fang L-Q, Yang Y, Jiang J-F, Yao H-W, Kargbo D, Li X-L, et al. Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016Apr19;113(16):4488–93. doi: 10.1073/pnas.151858711327035948
8. Kucharski AJ, Camacho A, Flasche S, Glover RE, Edmunds WJ, Funk S, Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015Nov17;112(46):14366–71. doi: 10.1073/pnas.150881411226460023
9. Kiskowski MA, A three-scale network model for the early growth dynamics of 2014 west Africa ebola epidemic. PLoS Curr. 2014;6(1).
10. White RA, MacDonald E, de Blasio BF, Nygård K, Vold L, Røttingen J-A, Projected Treatment Capacity Needs in Sierra Leone. PLoS Curr. 2014;1–16.
11. Chowell G, Nishiura H, Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease. PLoS Biol. 2015Jan;13(1):e1002057. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.100205725607595
12. Fallah MP, Skrip LA, Gertler S, Yamin D, Galvani AP, Quantifying Poverty as a Driver of Ebola Transmission. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015Dec;9(12):e0004260. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000426026720278
13. Wallinga J, Lipsitch M, How generation intervals shape the relationship between growth rates and reproductive numbers. Proc Biol Sci. 2007;274:599–604. 17476782
14. Althaus CL, Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa. PLoS Curr. 2014;6(1):1–9.
15. Fisman D, Khoo E, Tuite A, Early epidemic dynamics of the west african 2014 ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model. PLoS Curr. 2014;6(1).
16. Rivers C, Lofgren E, Marathe M, Eubank S, Lewis B, Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia. PLoS Curr. 2014;Oct16(1).
17. Webb G, Browne C, Huo X, Seydi O, Seydi M, Magal P, A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing. PLoS Curr. 2015;1–10.
18. Khan A, Naveed M, Dur-E-Ahmad M, Imran M, Estimating the basic reproductive ratio for the Ebola outbreak in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Infect Dis poverty. London; 2015;4(13):13.
19. Siettos C, Anastassopoulou C, Russo L, Grigoras C, Mylonakis E, Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic—Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone. PLoS Curr. 2015;(December 2013):1–16.
20. Faye O, Boelle PY, Heleze E, Faye O, Loucoubar C, Magassouba N, et al. Chains of transmission and control of Ebola virus disease in Conakry, Guinea, in 2014: an observational study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015;Jan22(14):1–7.
21. Yamin D, Gertler S, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Skrip LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah TG, et al. Effect of Ebola progression on transmission and control in Liberia. Ann Intern Med. 2015Jan6;162(1):11–7. doi: 10.7326/M14-225525347321
22. Lewnard JA, Ndeffo Mbah ML, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Altice FL, Bawo L, Nyenswah TG, et al. Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. Oxford; 2014;14(12):1189–95.
23. Stadler T, Kühnert D, Rasmussen DA, du Plessis L, Insights into the early epidemic spread of ebola in sierra leone provided by viral sequence data. PLoS Curr. 2014;6.
24. Alizon S, Lion S, Murall CL, Abbate JL, Quantifying the epidemic spread of Ebola virus (EBOV) in Sierra Leone using phylodynamics. Virulence. 2014;5(8):825–7. doi: 10.4161/21505594.2014.97651425495064
25. Volz E, Pond S, Phylodynamic analysis of ebola virus in the 2014 sierra leone epidemic. PLoS Curr. 2014;6.
26. Van Kerkhove MD, Bento AI, Mills HL, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making. Sci data. 2015;2:150019. doi: 10.1038/sdata.2015.1926029377
27. Ma J, Dushoff J, Bolker BM, Earn DJD, Estimating initial epidemic growth rates. Bull Math Biol. 2014Jan;76(1):245–60. doi: 10.1007/s11538-013-9918-224272389
28. Vynnycky E, White R, An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling. An Introduction to Infectious Disease Modelling. Oxford University Press; 2010. 400 p.
29. Lipsitch M, Cohen T, Cooper B, Robins JM, Ma S, James L, et al. Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science. 2003Jun20;300(5627):1966–70. 12766207
30. de Silva UC, Warachit J, Waicharoen S, Chittaganpitch M, A preliminary analysis of the epidemiology of influenza A(H1N1)v virus infection in Thailand from early outbreak data, June-July 2009. Euro Surveill Bull Eur sur les Mal Transm = Eur Commun Dis Bull. 2009Aug6;14(31).
31. King AA, de Celles MD, Magpantay FMG, Rohani P, Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola. Proc R Soc London Ser B, Biol Sci. London; 2015;282(1806):20150347.
32. World Health Organisation WHO, Internet]. Available from:http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.ebola-sitrep.ebola-country?lang=en
33. Camacho A, Kucharski A, Aki-Sawyerr Y, White MA, Flasche S, Baguelin M, et al. Temporal Changes in Ebola Transmission in Sierra Leone and Implications for Control Requirements: a Real-time Modelling Study. PLoS Curr. 2015;7(Grant 13165):1–19.
34. WHO Ebola Response TeamEbola virus disease in West Africa—the first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections. N Engl J Med. United States; 2014Sep22;371(16):1481–95.
35. Exchange HD, Internet]. [cited 2016Mar1]. Available from: https://data.humdata.org/dataset/ebola-treatment-centers
36. World Health Organization WHO, . Overview of Ebola Treatment Centres (ETCs) [Internet]. [cited 2015Jul31]. Available from: https://extranet.who.int/ebolafmt/sites/default/files/documents/ETC_Overview_05_April_2015.pdf
37. Kirkwood BB, Sterne J, Essential medical statistics. Blackwell Publishing; 2003. 1–512 p.
38. Institut National de la Statistique G. Résultats préliminaires du RGPH3 [Internet]. 2014 [cited 2015 Jan 31]. Available from: http://www.stat-guinee.org/index.php/result-prelim-rgph3
39. Liberian Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS). 2008 National Population and Housing Census. Analytical report on population projections [Internet]. 2011. Available from: http://www.lisgis.net/page_info.php?7d5f44532cbfc489b8db9e12e44eb820=MzQy
40. Koroma DS, Turay AB, Moigua MB, 2004 Population and Housing Census. Analytical report on population projection for Sierra Leone [Internet]. 2006 [cited 2015 Jan 1]. Available from: http://www.statistics.sl/2004_population_and_housing_census.htm
41. Institut National de la Statistique (INS) et ICF International. L’Enquête Démographique et de Santé et à Indicateurs Multiples en Guinée de 2012 [Dataset]. 2013.
42. Liberia Institute of Statistics and GeoInformation Services (LISGIS), Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, National AIDS Control Program and ICF International. Liberia Demographic and Health Survey 2013 [Dataset]. 2014.
43. Statistics Sierra Leone (SSL) and ICF International. Sierra Leone Demographic and Health Survey 2013 [Dataset]. 2014.
44. Rutstein S, Staveteig S, Making the Demographic and Health Surveys Wealth Index Comparable. DHS Methodological Reports No. 9. Rockville, Maryland, USA: ICF International.; 2014.
45. GADM database of global administrative areas, Version 2.5 [Internet]. 2012. Available from: http://www.gadm.org
46. World Health Organization WHO, Internet]. 2015 [cited 2015 Dec 29]. Available from: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/one-year-report/factors/en/
47. Scarpino S V, Iamarino A, Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Wenzel NS, et al. Epidemiological and viral genomic sequence analysis of the 2014 ebola outbreak reveals clustered transmission. Clin Infect Dis. 2015;60(7):1079–82. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu113125516185
48. World Health Organisation WHO, Internet]. 2014. Available from: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/
49. Althaus CL, Ebola superspreading. Lancet Infect Dis. 2015May;15(5):507–8. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(15)70135-025932579
50. Pandey A, Atkins KE, Medlock J, Wenzel N, Townsend JP, Childs JE, et al. Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa. Science. 2014Nov21;346(6212):991–5. doi: 10.1126/science.126061225414312
51. Valdez LD, Aragão Rêgo HH, Stanley HE, Braunstein LA, Predicting the extinction of Ebola spreading in Liberia due to mitigation strategies. Sci Rep. 2015;5:12172. doi: 10.1038/srep1217226190582
52. Xia Z-Q, Wang S-F, Li S-L, Huang L-Y, Zhang W-Y, Sun G-Q, et al. Modeling the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in Liberia. Sci Rep. 2015;5:13857. doi: 10.1038/srep1385726347015
53. Chowell G, Nishiura H, Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review. BMC Med. 2014Jan21;12(1):196.
54. Susser M, The logic in ecological: I. The logic of analysis. Am J Public Health. 1994May;84(5):825–9. 8179056
55. Victory KR, Coronado F, Ifono SO, Soropogui T, Dahl BA, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Ebola transmission linked to a single traditional funeral ceremony—Kissidougou, Guinea, December, 2014-January 2015. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. Atlanta; 2015;64(14):386–8.