메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 282, Issue 1806, 2015, Pages

Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola

Author keywords

Ebola virus disease; Emerginginfectious disease; Forecast

Indexed keywords

DISEASE INCIDENCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; ERROR ANALYSIS; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; PATHOGEN; POPULATION OUTBREAK; PUBLIC HEALTH; SIMULATION; SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS; STOCHASTICITY; VIRAL DISEASE;

EID: 84926359252     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712954     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2015.0347     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (194)

References (18)
  • 1
    • 9544238083 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle
    • Anderson RM et al. 1996 Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle. Nature 382, 779-788. (doi:10.1038/382779a0)
    • (1996) Nature , vol.382 , pp. 779-788
    • Anderson, R.M.1
  • 2
    • 0035891129 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain
    • (vol. 413, pg. 542, 2001)
    • Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM. 2001 Transmission intensity and impact of control policieson the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain (vol. 413, pg. 542, 2001). Nature 414, 329. (doi:10.1038/35104594)
    • (2001) Nature , vol.414 , pp. 329
    • Ferguson, N.M.1    Donnelly, C.A.2    Erson, R.M.3
  • 3
    • 0035955427 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape
    • Keeling MJ et al. 2001 Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294, 813–817. (doi:10.1126/science.1065973)
    • (2001) Science , vol.294 , pp. 813-817
    • Keeling, M.J.1
  • 4
    • 12444346408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome
    • Lipsitch M et al. 2003 Transmission dynamics and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome. Science 300, 1966-1970. (doi:10.1126/science.1086616
    • (2003) Science , vol.300 , pp. 1966-1970
    • Lipsitch, M.1
  • 5
    • 0242690987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models
    • Riley S, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM. 2003 Robust parameter estimation techniques for stochastic within-host macroparasite models. J. Theor. Biol. 225, 419-430. (doi:10.1016/S0022-5193(03)00266-2)
    • (2003) J. Theor. Biol , vol.225 , pp. 419-430
    • Riley, S.1    Donnelly, C.A.2    Ferguson, N.M.3
  • 6
    • 67249138142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): Early findings
    • Fraser C et al. 2009 Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science 324, 1557-1561. (doi:10.1126/science.1176062)
    • (2009) Science , vol.324 , pp. 1557-1561
    • Fraser, C.1
  • 7
    • 79955765273 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cholera epidemic in Haiti, 2010: Using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions
    • Tuite AR, Tien J, Eisenberg M, Earn DJD, Ma J, Fisman DN. 2011 Cholera epidemic in Haiti, 2010: using a transmission model to explain spatial spread of disease and identify optimal control interventions. Ann. Intern. Med. 154, 593–601. (doi:10.7326/0003-4819-154-9-201105030-00334)
    • (2011) Ann. Intern. Med , vol.154 , pp. 593-601
    • Tuite, A.R.1    Tien, J.2    Eisenberg, M.3    Earn, D.4    Ma, J.5    Fisman, D.N.6
  • 8
    • 84882918127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: Estimation of pandemic risk
    • Breban R, Riou J, Fontanet A. 2013 Interhuman transmissibility of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: estimation of pandemic risk. Lancet 382, 694–699. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61492-0)
    • (2013) Lancet , vol.382 , pp. 694-699
    • Breban, R.1    Riou, J.2    Fontanet, A.3
  • 9
    • 84908370013 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Early epidemic dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola outbreak: Estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model
    • Sep. 18, Edition
    • Fisman D, Khoo E, Tuite A. 2014 Early epidemic dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola outbreak: estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model. PLoS Curr. Outbreaks, Sep. 18, Edition 1.(doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.89c0d3783f36958d96ebbae97348d571)
    • (2014) Plos Curr. Outbreaks , pp. 1
    • Fisman, D.1    Khoo, E.2    Tuite, A.3
  • 10
    • 84964315701 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): A review
    • Chowell G, Nishiura H. 2014 Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review. BMC Med. 12, 196. (doi:10.1186/s12916-014-0196-0)
    • (2014) BMC Med , vol.12 , pp. 196
    • Chowell, G.1    Nishiura, H.2
  • 11
    • 84862127435 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cholera modeling: Challenges to quantitative analysis and predicting the impact of interventions
    • Grad YH, Miller JC, Lipsitch M. 2012 Cholera modeling: challenges to quantitative analysis and predicting the impact of interventions. Epidemiology 23, 523-530. (doi:10.1097/EDE.0b013e3182572581)
    • (2012) Epidemiology , vol.23 , pp. 523-530
    • Grad, Y.H.1    Miller, J.C.2    Lipsitch, M.3
  • 12
    • 84887964021 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating initial epidemic growth rates
    • Ma J, Dushoff J, Bolker BM, Earn DJD. 2014 Estimating initial epidemic growth rates. Bull. Math. Biol. 76, 245–260. (doi:10.1007/s11538-013-9918-2)
    • (2014) Bull. Math. Biol , vol.76 , pp. 245-260
    • Ma, J.1    Dushoff, J.2    Bolker, B.M.3    Earn, D.4
  • 13
    • 84921046322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Temporal variations in the effective reproduction number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak
    • Outbreaks, Sep. 18, Edition
    • Towers S, Patterson-Lomba O, CastilloChavez C. 2014 Temporal variations in the effective reproduction number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak. PLoS Curr. Outbreaks, Sep. 18, Edition 1. (doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.9e4c4294ec8ce1adad283172b16bc908)
    • (2014) Plos Curr , pp. 1
    • Towers, S.1    Patterson-Lomba, O.2    Castillochavez, C.3
  • 14
    • 74049096785 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: Measles in large and small populations as a case study
    • He D, Ionides EL, King AA. 2010 Plug-and-play inference for disease dynamics: measles in large and small populations as a case study. J. R. Soc. Interface 7, 271-283. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2009.0151)
    • (2010) J. R. Soc. Interface , vol.7 , pp. 271-283
    • He, D.1    Ionides, E.L.2    King, A.A.3
  • 15
    • 84921327887 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inference for dynamic and latent variable models via iterated, perturbed Bayes maps
    • Ionides EL, Nguyen D, Atchade´ Y, Stoev S, King AA. 2015 Inference for dynamic and latent variable models via iterated, perturbed Bayes maps. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 719-724. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1410597112)
    • (2015) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.112 , pp. 719-724
    • Ionides, E.L.1    Nguyen, D.2    Atchade´, Y.3    Stoev, S.4    King, A.A.5
  • 16
    • 84908114375 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak
    • Outbreaks, Sep. 2, Edition 1
    • Gomes M, y Piontti AP, Rossi L, Chao D, Longini I, Halloran ME, Vespignani A. 2014 Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak. PLoS Curr. Outbreaks, Sep. 2, Edition 1. (doi:10.1371/currents.outbreaks.cd818f63d40e24aef769dda7df9e0da5)
    • (2014) Plos Curr
    • Gomes, M.1    Piontti, A.P.2    Rossi, L.3    Chao, D.4    Longini, I.5    Halloran, M.E.6    Vespignani, A.7
  • 17
    • 0035820841 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods
    • Lloyd AL. 2001 Destabilization of epidemic models with the inclusion of realistic distributions of infectious periods. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 268,985-993. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2001.1599)
    • (2001) Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B , vol.268 , pp. 985-993
    • Lloyd, A.L.1
  • 18
    • 33747589306 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases
    • Wearing HJ, Rohani P, Keeling MJ. 2005 Appropriate models for the management of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2, e174. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020174)
    • (2005) Plos Med , vol.2
    • Wearing, H.J.1    Rohani, P.2    Keeling, M.J.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.