Prediction of dengue outbreaks based on disease surveillance and meteorological data

PLoS ONE

Volumn 11, Issue 3, 2016, Pages

  Ramadona, Aditya Lia ^a,b   Lazuardi, Lutfan ^b   Hii, Yien Ling ^a   Holmner, Åsa ^a   Kusnanto, Hari ^b   Rocklöv, Joacim ^a  

^a UMEÅ UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b GADJAH MADA UNIVERSITY   (Indonesia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CONTROL STRATEGY; DENGUE; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INDONESIA; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA; METEOROLOGY; STATISTICAL MODEL; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CLIMATE; DENGUE VIRUS; EPIDEMIC; HUMIDITY; ISOLATION AND PURIFICATION; TEMPERATURE; TRANSMISSION;

RAIN;

CLIMATE; DENGUE; DENGUE VIRUS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HUMANS; HUMIDITY; INCIDENCE; INDONESIA; LINEAR MODELS; METEOROLOGICAL CONCEPTS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RAIN; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 84977660042     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152688     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. World Health Organization. World health statistics 2013 [Internet]. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2013 [cited 2015 Jan 1]. Available from: http://www.who.int/gho/publications/world-health-statistics/2013/en/
2. Bhatt S, Gething PW, Brady OJ, Messina JP, Farlow AW, Moyes CL, et al. The global distribution and burden of dengue. Nature. 2013; 496(7446):504-7. doi: 10.1038/nature12060 PMID: 23563266
3. Stahl H-C, Butenschoen VM, Tran HT, Gozzer E, Skewes R, Mahendradhata Y, et al. Cost of dengue outbreaks: literature review and country case studies. BMC Public Health. 2013; 13(1):1048.
4. Azad S, Lio P. Emerging trends of malaria-dengue geographical coupling in the Southeast Asia region. J Vector Borne Dis. 2014; 51(3):165-71. PMID: 25253208
5. Shepard DS, Undurraga EA, Halasa YA. Economic and disease burden of dengue in Southeast Asia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013; 7(2):e2055. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002055 PMID: 23437406
6. Karyanti MR, Uiterwaal CS, Kusriastuti R, Hadinegoro SR, Rovers MM, Heesterbeek H, et al. The changing incidence of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever in Indonesia: a 45-year registry-based analysis. BMC Infect Dis. 2014; 14(1):412.
7. Aiken SR, Leigh CH. Dengue haemorrhagic fever in South-east Asia. Trans Inst Br Geogr. 1978; 3(4):476-97.
8. Dirjen Pengendalian Penyakit dan Penyehatan Lingkungan; Miko T, Kusminarti S, Karyanti MR, Sugiharti S, Sihombing B, Riyanti F, et al. Modul Pengendalian Demam Berdarah Dengue. Handoko D, Prasetyowati EB, Hartoyo S, editors. Jakarta: Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia; 2011. Indonesian.
9. World Health Organization. Comprehensive guideline for prevention and control of Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever. Revised and expanded edition. New Delhi: World Health Organization, Regional Office for South-East Asia; 2011.
10. Rodriguez-Roche R, Gould EA. Understanding the dengue viruses and progress towards their control. Biomed Res Int. 2013; 2013:690835. doi: 10.1155/2013/690835 PMID: 23936833
11. Simmons CP, Farrar JJ, Chau N van V, Wills B. Dengue: current concepts. N Engl J Med. 2012; 366:1423-32. doi: 10.1056/NEJMra1110265 PMID: 22494122
12. Perkins TA, Reiner RC, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Smith DL, Scott TW, Cummings DAT. A review of transmission models of dengue: A quantitative and qualitative analysis of model features. In: Gubler DJ, Ooi EE, Vasudevan S, Farrar J, editors. Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. 2nd ed. CAB International; 2014. p. 99-114.
13. OhAinle M, Harris E. Dengue pathogenesis: Viral factors. dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever. In:Gubler DJ, Ooi EE, Vasudevan S, Farrar J, editors. Dengue and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. 2nd ed. CAB International; 2014. p. 229-48.
14. Reich NG, Shrestha S, King AA, Rohani P, Lessler J, Kalayanarooj S, et al. Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity. J R Soc Interface. 2013; 10(86):20130414. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.0414 PMID: 23825116
15. OhAinle M, Balmaseda A, Macalalad AR, Tellez Y, Zody MC, Saborio S, et al. Dynamics of dengue disease severity determined by the interplay between viral genetics and serotype-specific immunity. Sci Transl Med. 2011; 3(114):114ra128-114ra128. doi: 10.1126/scitranslmed.3003084 PMID: 22190239
16. Dieng H, Saifur RGM, Ahmad AH, Che Salmah MR, Aziz AT, Satho T, et al. Unusual developing sites of dengue vectors and potential epidemiological implications. Asian Pac J Trop Biomed. Asian Pacific Tropical Biomedical Magazine; 2012; 2(3):228-32.
17. Chan M, Johansson MA. The incubation periods of dengue viruses. PLoS ONE. 2012; 7(11):e50972. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0050972 PMID: 23226436
18. Wongkoon S, Jaroensutasinee M, Jaroensutasinee K. Distribution, seasonal variation & dengue transmission prediction in Sisaket, Thailand. Indian J Med Res. 2013; 138(3):347-53. PMID: 24135179
19. Jeelani S, Sabesan S. Aedes vector population dynamics and occurrence of dengue fever in relation to climate variables in Puducherry, South India. Int J Curr Microbiol Appl Sci. 2013; 2(12):313-22.
20. Carrington LB, Seifert SN, Armijos MV, Lambrechts L, Scott TW. Reduction of Aedes aegypti vector competence for dengue virus under large temperature fluctuations. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2013; 88(4):689-97. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.12-0488 PMID: 23438766
21. Promprou S, Jaroensutasinee M, Jaroensutasinee K. Climatic factors affecting Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever incidence in Southern Thailand. Dengue Bull. 2005; 29.
22. Banu S, Hu W, Guo Y, Hurst C, Tong S. Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Environ Int. Elsevier Ltd; 2014; 63:137-42. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2013.11.002 PMID: 24291765
23. Hii YL, Rocklöv J, Ng N, Tang CS, Pang FY, Sauerborn R. Climate variability and increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence in Singapore. Glob Health Action. 2009; 2(1):1-9.
24. Wiwanitkit V. Lessons learned from previous dengue outbreaks. Asian Pacific J Trop Dis. 2014; 4(1):67-70.
25. Juffrie M, Focks DA. Early warning system (EWS) for dengue in Indonesia and Thailand. Berkala Ilmu Kedokteran. 2009; 41:134-42.
26. Indriani C, Fuad A, Kusnanto H. Spatial-temporal pattern comparison between Chikungunya outbreak and Dengue Hemmorhagis Fever incidence at Kota Yogyakarta 2008. Ber Kedokt Masy. 2011; 27(1):41-50. Indonesian.
27. Hii YL, Rocklöv J, Wall S, Ng LC, Tang CS, Ng N. Optimal lead time for dengue forecast. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012; 6(10):e1848. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0001848 PMID: 23110242
28. Badan Lingkungan Hidup. Status Lingkungan Hidup Daerah Tahun 2012. Yogyakarta: Pemerintah Kota Yogyakarta; 2012. Indonesian.
29. Salje H, Lessler J, Endy TP, Curriero FC, Gibbons R V, Nisalak A, et al. Revealing the microscale spatial signature of dengue transmission and immunity in an urban population. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2012; 109(24):9535-8. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1120621109 PMID: 22645364
30. Gasparrini A. Distributed lag linear and non-linear models in R: the package DLNM. J Stat Softw. 2011; 43(8):1-20. PMID: 22003319
31. R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2015.
32. Wood SN. Generalized Additive Models: An introduction with R. Chapman and Hall/CRC.; 2006.
33. Cummings DAT, Irizarry RA, Huang NE, Endy TP, Nisalak A, Ungchusak K, et al. Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand. Nature. 2004; 427(6972):344-7. PMID: 14737166
34. Johansson MA, Cummings DAT, Glass GE. Multiyear climate variability and dengue - El Niño southern oscillation, weather, and dengue incidence in Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Thailand: a longitudinal data analysis. PLoS medicine. 2009; 6(11): e1000168. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1000168 PMID: 19918363
35. IRI. Emerging El Nino Conditions: Notes for the Global Health Community [Internet]. New York: Climate Information for Public Health Action, International Research Institute for Climate and Society; 2014 [cited 2015 Dec 10]. Available from: http://iri.columbia.edu/news/nino-primer-for-the-global-health-community.
36. Arcari P, Tapper N, Pfueller S. Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue/DHF in Indonesia. Singap J Trop Geogr. 2007; 28(3):251-72.
37. Wongkoon S, Jaroensutasinee M, Jaroensutasinee K. Weather factors influencing the occurrence of dengue fever in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Thailand. Trop Biomed. 2013; 30(4):631-41. PMID: 24522133
38. Anastuti RA. Implementasi program pengendalian Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Kelurahan Sorosutan dan Kelurahan Semaki Kota Yogyakarta [dissertation]. Sleman: Universitas Gadjah Mada; 2013. Indonesian.
39. Widiarti, Heriyanto B, Boewono DT, Widyastuti U, Mujiono Lasmiati, et al. Peta resistensi vektor Demam Berdarah Dengue Aedes aegypti terhadap insektisida kelompok Organofosfat, Karbamat dan Pyrethroid di Provinsi Jawa tengah dan Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Bul Penelit Kesehat. 2011; 39(4):176-89. Indonesian.