Hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of the Heihe River Basin, northwest China

PLoS ONE

Volumn 11, Issue 6, 2016, Pages

  Zhang, Ling ^a,b   Nan, Zhuotong ^c,d   Xu, Yi ^c   Li, Shuo ^c,d  

^a Chinese Academy of Sciences   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (China)

^c Nanjing Normal University   (China)

^d NANJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

GROUND WATER; SURFACE WATER;

AGRICULTURAL LAND; ARTICLE; CHINA; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; GRASSLAND; GROUNDWATER DISCHARGE; HYDROLOGY; LAND USE; MARKOV CHAIN; RIVER BASIN; SEASONAL VARIATION; STREAMFLOW; SURFACE RUNOFF; WATER FLOW; WATERSHED; ALGORITHM; CLIMATE; ECOSYSTEM; RIVER; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ALGORITHMS; CHINA; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; HYDROLOGY; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RIVERS; WATER MOVEMENTS;

EID: 84977147463     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0158394     Document Type: Article

References (98)

1. Chen H, Xu C-Y, Guo S. Comparison and evaluation of multiple GCMs, statistical downscaling and hydrological models in the study of climate change impacts on runoff. J Hydrol. 2012; 434:36-45. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.02.040
2. Molina-Navarro E, Trolle D, Martínez-Pérez S, Sastre-Merlín A, Jeppesen E. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios. J Hydrol. 2014; 509:354-66. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.11.053
3. Wang R, Kalin L, Kuang W, Tian H. Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama. Hydrol Process. 2014; 28(22):5530-46. doi: 10.1002/hyp.10057
4. Niraula R, Meixner T, Norman LM. Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes. J Hydrol. 2015; 522:439-51. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.007
5. Khoi DN, Suetsugi T. The responses of hydrological processes and sediment yield to land use and climate change in the Be River Catchment, Vietnam. Hydrol Process. 2014; 28(3):640-52.
6. IPCC. Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2013.
7. Ji F, Wu Z, Huang J, Chassignet EP. Evolution of land surface air temperature trend. Nat Clim Change. 2014; 4(6):462-6.
8. Piao S, Ciais P, Huang Y, Shen Z, Peng S, Li J, et al. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China. Nature. 2010; 467(7311):43-51. doi: 10.1038/nature09364 PMID: 20811450
9. Ding Y, Ren G, Shi G, Gong P, Zheng X, Zhai P, et al. National Assessment Report of Climate Change (I): Climate change in China and its future trend (in Chinese). Advances in Climate Change Research. 2006; 2(1):3-8.
10. Shi Y, Shen Y, Kang E, Li D, Ding Y, Zhang G, et al. Recent and future climate change in northwest China. Clim Change. 2007; 80(3-4):379-93. doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9121-7
11. Zhang Y, Guan D, Jin C, Wang A, Wu J, Yuan F. Impacts of climate change and land use change on runoff of forest catchment in northeast China. Hydrol Process. 2014; 28(2):186-96. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9564
12. Hu Z, Wang L, Wang Z, Hong Y, Zheng H. Quantitative assessment of climate and human impacts on surface water resources in a typical semi-arid watershed in the middle reaches of the Yellow River from 1985 to 2006. Int J Climatol. 2015; 35(1):97-113. doi: 10.1002/joc.3965
13. Chen Y, Li Z, Fan Y, Wang H, Deng H. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of northwest China. Environ Res. 2015; 139:11-9. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2014.12.029 PMID: 25682220
14. Rehana S, Mujumdar P. River water quality response under hypothetical climate change scenarios in Tunga-Bhadra River, India. Hydrol Process. 2011; 25(22):3373-86. doi: 10.1002/hyp.8057
15. He Z, Zhi W, John SC, Xiaoyi M. Hydrologic sensitivity of the Upper San Joaquin River Watershed in California to climate change scenarios. Hydrol Res. 2012; 44(4):723-36. doi: 10.2166/nh.2012.441
16. Tong ST, Sun Y, Ranatunga T, He J, Yang YJ. Predicting plausible impacts of sets of climate and land use change scenarios on water resources. Appl Geogr. 2012; 32(2):477-89. doi: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.06.014
17. Wang W, Shao Q, Yang T, Peng S, Xing W, Sun F, et al. Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes: a case study in four catchments of the Haihe River basin, China. Hydrol Process. 2013; 27(8):1158-74. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9299
18. Sang Y-F, Wang Z, Liu C, Yu J. The impact of changing environments on the runoff regimes of the arid Heihe River basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol. 2014; 115(1-2):187-95. doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-0888-y
19. Qin J, Ding Y, Wu J, Gao M, Yi S, Zhao C, et al. Understanding the impact of mountain landscapes on water balance in the upper Heihe River watershed in northwestern China. J Arid Land. 2013; 5(3):366-83. doi: 10.1007/s40333-013-0162-2
20. Nie W, Yuan Y, Kepner W, Nash MS, Jackson M, Erickson C. Assessing impacts of Landuse and Land-cover changes on hydrology for the upper San Pedro watershed. J Hydrol. 2011; 407(1):105-14. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.07.012
21. Mishra V, Cherkauer KA, Niyogi D, Lei M, Pijanowski BC, Ray DK, et al. A regional scale assessment of land use/land cover and climatic changes on water and energy cycle in the upper Midwest United States. Int J Climatol. 2010; 30(13):2025-44. doi: 10.1002/joc.2095
22. Li Z, Xu Z, Shao Q, Yang J. Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of SWAT model in upper reaches of the Heihe river basin. Hydrol Process. 2009; 23(19):2744-53. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7371
23. Zang C, Liu J. Trend analysis for the flows of green and blue water in the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. J Hydrol. 2013; 502:27-36. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.022
24. Wu F, Zhan J, Güneralp İ. Present and future of urban water balance in the rapidly urbanizing Heihe River basin, northwest China. Ecol Modell. 2014.
25. Zhang A, Zheng C, Wang S, Yao Y. Analysis of streamflow variations in the Heihe River Basin, northwest China: trends, abrupt changes, driving factors and ecological influences. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies. 2015; 3:106-24. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2014.10.005
26. Hu X, Lu L, Li X, Wang J, Guo M. Land Use/Cover Change in the Middle Reaches of the Heihe River Basin over 2000-2011 and Its Implications for Sustainable Water Resource Management. PloS one. 2015; 10(6):e0128960. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0128960 PMID: 26115484
27. Hu X, Lu L, Li X, Wang J, Lu X. Ejin Oasis Land Use and Vegetation Change between 2000 and 2011: The Role of the Ecological Water Diversion Project. Energies. 2015; 8(7):7040-57. doi: 10.3390/en8077040
28. Zhang L, Nan Z, Yu W, Ge Y. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions. Environ Manage. 2016; 57(2):412-31. doi: 10.1007/s00267-015-0620-z PMID: 26429363
29. Zhang L, Nan Z, Yu W, Ge Y. Modeling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change and Hydrological Responses under Consistent Climate Change Scenarios in the Heihe River Basin, China. Water Resour Manage. 2015; 29(13):4701-17. doi: 10.1007/s11269-015-1085-9
30. Wu F, Zhan J, Su H, Yan H, Ma E. Scenario-based impact assessment of land use/cover and climate changes on watershed hydrology in Heihe River Basin of northwest China. Adv Meteorol. 2014. doi: 10.1155/2015/410198
31. Chen L, Frauenfeld OW. A comprehensive evaluation of precipitation simulations over China based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projections. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2014; 119 (10):5767-86.
32. Cai Y, Huang W, Teng F, Gu S. Effects of Changing Climate on Glacier Shrinkage and River Flow in the Upper Heihe River Basin, China. J Coastal Res. 2014; 68(sp1):121-8. doi: 10.2112/SI68-016.1
33. Zhang J, Kang E, Lan Y, Chen R. Impact of climate change and variability on water resources in Heihe River Basin. J Geog Sci. 2003; 13(3):286-92. doi: 10.1007/BF02837501
34. Nian Y, Li X, Zhou J, Hu X. Impact of land use change on water resource allocation in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. J Arid Land. 2014; 6(3):273-86. doi: 10.1007/s40333-013-0209-4
35. Ye S. Study on 3d visualization and construction modeling of groundwater system and its application in Heihe River Basin (in Chinese) 2005.
36. Du Y, Zhu J, Gu S. Sidementary Geochemistry and tectonic significance of ordovician cherts in Sunan, north Qilian Mountains (in Chinese). Eearth Science-Jounal of China University of Geosciences. 2006; 31(1).
37. Yang Q, Xiao H, Zhao L, Yang Y, Li C, Zhao L, et al. Hydrological and isotopic characterization of river water, groundwater, and groundwater recharge in the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. Hydrol Process. 2011; 25(8):1271-83. doi: 10.1002/hyp.7896
38. Kang E, Lu L, Xu Z. Vegetation and carbon sequestration and their relation to water resources in an inland river basin of Northwest China. J Environ Manage. 2007; 85(3):702-10. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.09.007 PMID: 17126989
39. Wang L, Zhang X. Effect of the recent climate change on water resource in Heihe river basin (in Chinese). Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment. 2010; 24(4):60-5.
40. Wang J, Ge C, Zhao J, Hu X. Landuse/Landcover data of the Heihe River Basin in 2011. Heihe Plan Science Data Center. 2014. doi: 10.3972/heihe.093.2014.db
41. Yu W, Zhao Y, Nan Z, Li S. Improvement of snowmelt implementation in the SWAT hydrologic model (in Chinese). Acta Ecologica Sinica. 2013; 33(21). doi: 10.5846/stxb201207110977
42. Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR. Soil and Water Assessment Tool theoretical documentation: Version 2009: Texas Water Resources Institute; 2011. 1-24 p.
43. Gassman PW, Reyes MR, Green CH, Arnold JG. The soil and water assessment tool: historical development, applications, and future research directions. T ASABE. 2007; 50:1211-50.
44. Nejadhashemi A, Wardynski B, Munoz J. Evaluating the impacts of land use changes on hydrologic responses in the agricultural regions of Michigan and Wisconsin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions. 2011; 8(2):3421-68.
45. Shi P, Ma X, Hou Y, Li Q, Zhang Z, Qu S, et al. Effects of land-use and climate change on hydrological processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China. Water Resour Manage. 2013; 27(5):1263-78.
46. Wang G, Yang H, Wang L, Xu Z, Xue B. Using the SWAT model to assess impacts of land use changes on runoff generation in headwaters. Hydrol Process. 2014; 28(3):1032-42. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9645
47. Wu F, Zhan J, Chen J, He C, Zhang Q. Water Yield Variation due to Forestry Change in the Head- Water Area of Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. Adv Meteorol. 2015.
48. Province DoSIoG. Soil in Gansu Province (in Chinese). Beijing: Agricultural Press; 1993.
49. Lai Z, Li S, Li C, Nan Z, Yu W. Improvement and Applications of SWAT Model in the Upper-middle Heihe River Basin (in Chinese). Journal of Natural Resources. 2013; 28(8):1404-13.
50. Liston GE, Elder K. A meteorological distribution system for high-resolution terrestrial modeling (Micro-Met). J Hydrometeor. 2006; 7(2):217-34. doi: 10.1175/JHM486.1
51. Wu F, Zhan J, Wang Z, Zhang Q. Streamflow variation due to glacier melting and climate change in upstream Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. Phys Chem Earth Parts A/B/C. 2015; 79:11-9. doi: 10.1016/j.pce.2014.08.002
52. Moriasi D, Arnold J, Van Liew M, Bingner R, Harmel R, Veith T. Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. T ASABE. 2007; 50(3):885-900.
53. Nash J, Sutcliffe JV. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I - A discussion of principles. J Hydrol. 1970; 10(3):282-90. doi: 10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
54. Muller MR, Middleton J. A Markov model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara Region, Ontario, Canada. Landscape Ecol. 1994; 9(2):151-7.
55. Guan D, Li H, Inohae T, Su W, Nagaie T, Hokao K. Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model. Ecol Modell. 2011; 222(20):3761-72. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.09.009
56. Yang X, Zheng X-Q, Lv L-N. A spatiotemporal model of land use change based on ant colony optimization, Markov chain and cellular automata. Ecol Modell. 2012; 233:11-9. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.03.011
57. Hu Y, Zheng Y, Zheng X. Simulation of land-use scenarios for Beijing using CLUE-S and Markov composite models. Chinese Geogr Sci. 2013; 23(1):92-100. doi: 10.1007/s11769-013-0594-9
58. Verburg PH, Overmars KP. Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model. Landscape Ecol. 2009; 24(9):1167-81. doi: 10.1007/s10980-009-9355-7
59. Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Veldkamp A, Limpiada R, Espaldon V, Mastura SSA. Modeling the spatial dynamics of regional land use: the CLUE-S model. Environ Manage. 2002; 30(3):391-405. PMID: 12148073
60. Park J-Y, Park M-J, Joh H-K, Shin H-J, Kwon H-J, Srinivasan R, et al. Assessment of MIROC3.2 HiRes climate and CLUE-s land use change impacts on watershed hydrology using SWAT. T ASABE. 2011; 54(5):1713-24.
61. Zhou F, Xu Y, Chen Y, Xu C-Y, Gao Y, Du J. Hydrological response to urbanization at different spatiotemporal scales simulated by coupling of CLUE-S and the SWAT model in the Yangtze River Delta region. J Hydrol. 2013; 485:113-25. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.040
62. Zhang P, Liu Y, Pan Y, Yu Z. Land use pattern optimization based on CLUE-S and SWAT models for agricultural non-point source pollution control. Math Comput Model. 2013; 58(3):588-95. doi: 10.1016/j.mcm.2011.10.061
63. Chu HJ, Lin YP, Huang CW, Hsu CY, Chen HY. Modelling the hydrologic effects of dynamic land-use change using a distributed hydrologic model and a spatial land-use allocation model. Hydrol Process. 2010; 24(18):2538-54.
64. Verburg PH, de Nijs TC, van Eck JR, Visser H, de Jong K. A method to analyse neighbourhood characteristics of land use patterns. Comput Environ Urban Syst. 2004; 28(6):667-90. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2003.07.001
65. Wang Y, Yan C, Wang J. Landuse/Landcover data of the Heihe river basin in 1986. Heihe Plan Science Data Center. 2011. doi: 10.3972/heihe.021.2013.db
66. Wang J, Zhao J, Hu X, Ge C. Landuse/Landcover data of the Heihe River Basin in 2000. Heihe Plan Science Data Center. 2014. doi: 10.3972/heihe.039.2014.db
67. Cohen J. A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educ Psychol Meas. 1960; 20(1):37-46.
68. Xu C-y. Climate change and hydrologic models: A review of existing gaps and recent research developments. Water Resour Manage. 1999; 13(5):369-82. doi: 10.1023/A:1008190900459
69. Tanzeeba S, Gan TY. Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewan River Basin. Clim Change. 2012; 112(2):355-86. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0221-7
70. Xu C-y. Modelling the effects of climate change on water resources in central Sweden. Water Resour Manage. 2000; 14(3):177-89. doi: 10.1023/A:1026502114663
71. Mengistu D, Sorteberg A. Sensitivity of SWAT simulated streamflow to climatic changes within the Eastern Nile River basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc. 2012; 16(2):391-407. doi: 10.5194/hess-16-391-2012
72. Islam A, Sikka AK, Saha B, Singh A. Streamflow response to climate change in the Brahmani River Basin, India. Water Resour Manage. 2012; 26(6):1409-24. doi: 10.1007/s11269-011-9965-0
73. Jiang T, Chen YD, Xu C-y, Chen X, Chen X, Singh VP. Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China. J Hydrol. 2007; 336 (3):316-33. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.010
74. Xu C-y. From GCMs to river flow: a review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches. Prog Phys Geog. 1999; 23(2):229-49. doi: 10.1177/030913339902300204
75. Lan Y, Ding Y, Kang E. Variations and trends of temperature and precipitation in the mountain drainage basin of the Heihe River in recent 50 years (in Chinese). Plateau Meteorology. 2004; 23(4):723-7.
76. Li Z, Liu W-z, Zhang X-c, Zheng F-l. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China. J Hydrol. 2009; 377(1):35-42. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.007
77. Cheng G, Li X, Zhao W, Xu Z, Feng Q, Xiao S, et al. Integrated study of the water-ecosystem-economy in the Heihe River Basin. National Science Review. 2014; 1(3):413-28. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwu017
78. Wang Y, Feng Q, Chen L, Yu T. Significance and effect of ecological rehabilitation project in inland river basins in northwest China. Environ Manage. 2013; 52(1):209-20. doi: 10.1007/s00267-013-0077-x PMID: 23716005
79. Li Z, Shao Q, Xu Z, Cai X. Analysis of parameter uncertainty in semi-distributed hydrological models using bootstrap method: A case study of SWAT model applied to Yingluoxia watershed in northwest China. J Hydrol. 2010; 385(1):76-83. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.01.025
80. Huang Q, Zhang W. Improvement and application of GIS-based distributed SWAT hydrological modeling on high altitude, cold, semi-arid catchment of Heihe River Basin, China (in Chinese). Journal of Nanjing Forestry University (Natural Sciences Edition). 2004; 28(2):22-6.
81. Gan R, Sun L, Luo Y. Baseflow characteristics in alpine rivers - a multi-catchment analysis in Northwest China. Journal of Mountain Science. 2015; 12(3):614-25.
82. Zhou J, Hu BX, Cheng G, Wang G, Li X. Development of a three-dimensional watershed modelling system for water cycle in the middle part of the Heihe rivershed, in the west of China. Hydrol Process. 2011; 25(12):1964-78.
83. Wang N, Zhang S, He J, Pu J, Wu X, Jiang X. Tracing the major source area of the mountainous runoff generation of the Heihe River in northwest China using stable isotope technique (in Chinese). Chin Sci Bull. 2009; 54(16):2751-7.
84. Lin B, Chen Y, Chen X. A study on regional difference of hydrological parameters of SWAT model (in Chinese). Journal of Natural Resource. 2013; 28(11):1988-99.
85. Zhang W, Zha X, Li J, Liang W, Ma Y, Fan D, et al. Spatiotemporal Change of Blue Water and Green Water Resources in the Headwater of Yellow River Basin, China. Water Resour Manage. 2014; 28 (13):4715-32. doi: 10.1007/s11269-014-0769-x
86. Li C. Study on improvement of SWAT model and integrated simulation in the upper-middle Heihe river basin (in Chinese): Nanjing Normal University; 2012.
87. Cheng C, Xu Z, Zhang S, Liu C, Wang Z. Temporal-spatial variations in evapotranspiration in the Heihe River basin and their correction with different meteorological/hydrological factors (in Chinese). Journal of Beijng Normal University (Natural Science). 2014; 50(5):535-42.
88. Zang C, Liu J, Velde M, Kraxner F. Assessment of spatial and temporal patterns of green and blue water flows under natural conditions in inland river basins in Northwest China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc. 2012; 16(8):2859-70. doi: 10.5194/hess-16-2859-2012
89. Wu W, Li J, Tian J, Zhao C. Simulation of daily streamflow from the Heihe watershed (in Chinese). Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment. 2013; 27(8):143-7.
90. Karlsson IB, Sonnenborg TO, Refsgaard JC, Trolle D, Børgesen CD, Olesen JE, et al. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change. J Hydrol. 2016; 535:301-17. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.069
91. Zhou D, Zhao S, Zhu C. The Grain for Green Project induced land cover change in the Loess Plateau: A case study with Ansai County, Shanxi Province, China. Ecol Indic. 2012; 23(0):88-94. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.03.021
92. The Ministry of Water Resources of the People's Republic of China. Recent Management Planning of Heihe River Basin (in Chinese). Beijing: China Water Power Press; 2000.
93. Morán-Tejeda E, Ceballos-Barbancho A, Llorente-Pinto JM, López-Moreno JI. Land-cover changes and recent hydrological evolution in the Duero Basin (Spain). Reg Environ Change. 2012; 12(1):17-33. doi: 10.1007/s10113-011-0236-7
94. Sriwongsitanon N, Taesombat W. Effects of land cover on runoff coefficient. J Hydrol. 2011; 410 (3):226-38. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.09.021
95. Hurkmans R, Terink W, Uijlenhoet R, Moors E, Troch P, Verburg P. Effects of land use changes on streamflow generation in the Rhine basin. Water Resour Res. 2009; 45(6). doi: 10.1029/2008WR007574
96. Jiao W, Xu Z. A distributed runoff model for the mountainous region of the Heihe River Basin (China) based on the spatial modeling environment (SME) I: model structure and equations. Environ Earth Sci. 2013; 68(3):881-8. doi: 10.1007/s12665-012-1793-x
97. Tu J. Combined impact of climate and land use changes on streamflow and water quality in eastern Massachusetts, USA. J Hydrol. 2009; 379(3):268-83. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.009
98. Kim J, Choi J, Choi C, Park S. Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea. Sci Total Environ. 2013; 452:181-95. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.02.005 PMID: 23506851