Drought prediction using a wavelet based approach to model the temporal consequences of different types of droughts

Journal of Hydrology

Volumn 539, Issue , 2016, Pages 417-428

  Maity, Rajib ^a   Suman, Mayank ^a   Verma, Nitesh Kumar ^a  

^a INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (India)

Author keywords

Drought prediction; Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI); Standardized Stream Flow Index (SSFI); Wavelet Transform (WT)

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; ECONOMICS; FORECASTING; LAND USE; SOIL MOISTURE; STREAM FLOW; WAVELET DECOMPOSITION;

HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS; MATHEMATICAL FRAMEWORKS; METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT; SOIL MOISTURE INDEX; STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX; STANDARDIZED STREAM FLOW INDEX (SSFI); TEMPORAL DEPENDENCE; WAVELET-BASED APPROACH;

DROUGHT;

CALIBRATION; CATCHMENT; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DROUGHT; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; INDEX METHOD; LAND COVER; MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; SOIL MOISTURE; STANDARDIZATION; STREAMFLOW; TEMPORAL ANALYSIS; WAVELET ANALYSIS;

EID: 84973154763     PISSN: 00221694     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.042     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. American Meteorological Society Policy statement: meteorological drought. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 1997, 78:847-849.
2. Bayazit M., Onoz B., Aksoy H. Nonparametric streamflow simulation by wavelet or Fourier analysis. Hydrol. Sci. J. 2001, 46(4):623-634.
3. Burrus C.S., Gopinath R.A., Guo H. Introduction to Wavelets and Wavelet Transforms 1998, Prentice Hall, New Jersey.
4. Cao L., Hong Y., Fang H., He G. Predicting chaotic time series with wavelet networks. Physica D 1995, 85(1):225-238.
5. CPC, 2014. Soil Moisture (V2), NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, Available on <> (accessed in November, 2014). http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cpcsoil.html.
6. Das, M., Ghosh, S.K., 2014. A probabilistic approach for weather forecast using spatio-temporal inter-relationships among climate variables. In: Industrial and Information Systems (ICIIS), 2014, 9th International Conference on. IEEE, pp. 1-6.
7. Das S.K., Maity R. A hydrometeorological approach for probabilistic simulation of monthly soil moisture under bare and crop land conditions. Water Resour. Res. 2015, 51:2336-2355. 10.1002/2014WR016043.
8. Daubechies I. Orthonormal bases of compactly supported wavelets. Commun. Pure Appl. Math. 1988, 41(7):909-996.
9. Dieppois B., Diedhiou A., Durand A., Fournier M., Massei N., Sebag D., Xue Y., Fontaine B. Quasi-decadal signals of Sahel rainfall and West African monsoon since the mid-twentieth century. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 2013, 118(22):12-587.
10. Duhamel P., Vetterli M. Fast Fourier transforms: a tutorial review and a state of the art. Signal Process. 1990, 19(4):259-299.
11. Fan Y., van den Dool H. Climate Prediction Center global monthly soil moisture data set at 0.5 degree resolution for 1948 to present. J. Geophys. Res. 2004, 109:D10102. 10.1029/2003JD004345.
12. Fleming S.W., Lavenue A.M., Aly A.H., Adams A. Practical applications of spectral analysis to hydrologic time series. Hydrol. Process. 2002, 16(2):565-574.
13. Huang J., van den Dool H.M., Georgarakos K.P. Analysis of model-calculated soil moisture over the United States (1931-1993) and applications to long-range temperature forecasts. J. Clim. 1996, 9:1350-1362.
14. India-WRIS version 4, 2014. Non Classified Hydro Observation data at Jondhra Station, India, Available on <> (accessed in November, 2014). http://india-wris.nrsc.gov.in/HydroObservationStationApp.html.
15. Jiang C., Xiong L., Wang D., Liu P., Guo S., Xu C.-Y. Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using the Budyko-type equations with time-varying parameters. J. Hydrol. 2015, 522:326-338. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.060.
16. Kang S., Lin H. Wavelet analysis of hydrological and water quality signals in an agricultural watershed. J. Hydrol. 2007, 338(1):1-14. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2007.01.047.
17. Karthikeyan L., Nagesh Kumar D. Predictability of nonstationary time series using wavelet and EMD based ARMA models. J. Hydrol. 2013, 502:103-119. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.030.
18. Keyantash J., Dracup J.A. The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 2002, 83(8):1167-1180.
19. Kim T.W., Valdés J.B. Nonlinear model for drought forecasting based on a conjunction of wavelet transforms and neural networks. J. Hydrol. Eng. 2003, 8(6):319-328.
20. Krause P., Boyle D.P., Bäse F. Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Adv. Geosci. 2005, 5:89-97.
21. Labat D., Ababou R., Mangin A. Rainfall-runoff relations for karstic springs. Part II: continuous wavelet and discrete orthogonal multiresolution analyses. J. Hydrol. 2000, 238(3):149-178.
22. Mabrouk A.B., Abdallah N.B., Dhifaoui Z. Wavelet decomposition and autoregressive model for time series prediction. Appl. Math. Comput. 2008, 199:334-340. 10.1016/j.amc.2007.09.067.
23. Madhu S., Kumar T.L., Barbosa H., Rao K.K., Bhaskar V.V. Trend analysis of evapotranspiration and its response to droughts over India. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 2015, 41-51.
24. Mallat S.G., Zhang Z. Matching pursuits with time-frequency dictionaries. IEEE Trans. Signal Process. 1993, 41(12):3397-3415.
25. Mallat S. A Wavelet Tour of Signal Processing 1999, Academic Press, San Diego, CA.
26. Massmann C., Wagener T., Holzmann H. A new approach to visualizing time-varying sensitivity indices for environmental model diagnostics across evaluation time-scales. Environ. Model. Softw. 2014, 51:190-194. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.09.033.
27. Maybank J., Bonsai B., Jones K., Lawford R., O'brien E.G., Ripley E.A., Wheaton E. Drought as a natural disaster. Atmos.-Ocean 1995, 33(2):195-222.
28. McKee T.B., Doesken N.J., Kleist J. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology 1993, vol. 17(22):179-183. American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.
29. Mo K.C. Model-based drought indices over the United States. J. Hydrometeorol. 2008, 9(6):1212-1230.
30. Ozger M., Mishra A.K., Singh V.P. Estimating Palmer Drought Severity Index using a wavelet fuzzy logic model based on meteorological variables. Int. J. Climatol. 2011, 31:2021-2032. 10.1002/joc.2215.
31. Özger M., Mishra A.K., Singh V.P. Long lead time drought forecasting using a wavelet and fuzzy logic combination model: a case study in Texas. J. Hydrometeorol. 2012, 13:284-297. 10.1175/JHM-D-10-05007.1.
32. Pan, F., Smerdon, J.E., Stieglitz, M., Webster, P., 2005. A wavelet approach to reconstructing near-surface temperature time series from observations of subsurface temperatures at several meters depth. In: AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts.
33. Peters, E., 2003. Propagation of drought through groundwater systems: illustrated in the Pang (UK) and Upper-Guadiana (ES) catchments, Wageningen Universiteit.
34. Rajeevan, M., Bhate, J., 2008. A high resolution daily gridded rainfall Data Set (1971-2005) for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, NCC research report, No. 9/2008. Available at <> (accessed in November, 2014). http://www.imdpune.gov.in/ncc_rept/RESEARCH%20REPORT%209.pdf.
35. Sang Y., Singh V., Sun F., Chen Y., Liu Y., Yang M. Wavelet-based hydrological time series forecasting. J. Hydrol. Eng. 2016, 06016001. 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001347.
36. Shannon C.E. Communication in the presence of noise. Proc. IRE 1949, 37(1):10-21.
37. Shukla S., Steinemann A.C., Lettenmaier D.P. Drought monitoring for Washington State: indicators and applications. J. Hydrometeorol. 2011, 12(1):66-83.
38. Smith L.C., Turcotte D.L., Isacks B.L. Stream flow characterization and feature detection using a discrete wavelet transform. Hydrol. Process. 1998, 12(2):233-249.
39. Soltani S. On the use of the wavelet decomposition for time series prediction. Neurocomputing 2002, 48(1):267-277.
40. Ujeneza E.L., Abiodun B.J. Drought regimes in Southern Africa and how well GCMs simulate them. Clim. Dyn. 2014, 44:1595-1609. 10.1007/s00382-014-2325-z.
41. van den Dool H. Performance and analysis of the constructed analogue method applied to U.S. soil moisture over 1981-2001. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108. 10.1029/2002JD003114.
42. Wang H., Chen Y., Pan Y., Li W. Spatial and temporal variability of drought in the arid region of China and its relationships to teleconnection indices. J. Hydrol. 2015, 523:283-296. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.055.
43. Westra S., Sharma A. Dominant modes of interannual variability in Australian rainfall analyzed using wavelets. J. Geophys. Res. 2006, 111(D5). 10.1029/2005JD005996.
44. Willmott C.J., Robeson S.M., Matsuura K. A refined index of model performance. Int. J. Climatol. 2012, 32(13):2088-2094.