The Role of Serotype Interactions and Seasonality in Dengue Model Selection and Control: Insights from a Pattern Matching Approach

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases

Volumn 10, Issue 5, 2016, Pages

  ten Bosch, Quirine A ^a   Singh, Brajendra K ^a   Hassan, Muhammad R A ^b   Chadee, Dave D ^c   Michael, Edwin ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME   (United States)

^b HOSPITAL SULTANAH BAHIYAH   (Malaysia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES   (Trinidad and Tobago)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CALIBRATION; CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK; DENGUE; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; DYNAMICS; HEALTH CARE PLANNING; NONHUMAN; PERFORMANCE; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; PROBABILITY; SEASONAL VARIATION; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SEROTYPE; VECTOR CONTROL; AUTOMATED PATTERN RECOGNITION; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CLASSIFICATION; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DENGUE VIRUS; HUMAN; IMMUNOLOGY; SEASON; TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; DENGUE; DENGUE VIRUS; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; PATTERN RECOGNITION, AUTOMATED; SEASONS; SEROGROUP; TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO;

EID: 84971624424     PISSN: 19352727     EISSN: 19352735     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004680     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. World Health OrganizationDengue guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control. World Health Organization, 2009.
2. Calisher CH, Karabatsos N, Dalrymple JM, Shope RE, Porterfield JS, Westaway EG, et al. Antigenic relationships between flaviviruses as determined by cross-neutralization tests with polyclonal antisera. J Gen Virol. 1989;70: 37–43. 2543738
3. Kalayanarooj S, Standardized clinical management: evidence of reduction of dengue haemorrhagic fever case-fatality rate in Thailand. Dengue Bull. 1999;23: 10–17.
4. Murrell S, Wu SC, Butler M, Review of dengue virus and the development of a vaccine. Biotechnol Adv. 2011;29: 239–247. doi: 10.1016/j.biotechadv.2010.11.00821146601
5. Nisalak A, Endy TP, Nimmannitya S, Kalayanarooj S, Scott RM, Burke DS, et al. Serotype-specific dengue virus circulation and dengue disease in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2003;68: 191–202. 12641411
6. Campione-Piccardo J, Ruben M, Vaughan H, Morris-Glasgow V, Dengue viruses in the Caribbean. Twenty years of dengue virus isolates from the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre. West Indian Med J. 2003;52: 191–198. 14649098
7. Cummings DAT, Irizarry RA, Huang NE, Endy TP, Nisalak A, Ungchusak K, et al. Travelling waves in the occurrence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Thailand. Nature. 2004;427: 344–347. 14737166
8. Andraud M, Hens N, Marais C, Beutels P, Dynamic Epidemiological Models for Dengue Transmission: A Systematic Review of Structural Approaches. PLoS one. 2012;7: e49085. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.004908523139836
9. Halstead SB, In vivo enhancement of dengue virus infection in rhesus monkeys by passively transferred antibody. J Infect Dis. 1979;140: 527–533. 117061
10. Halstead SB, Dengue Antibody-Dependent Enhancement: Knowns and Unknowns. Microbiol Spectr. 2014;2.
11. Gubler DJ, Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever. Clin Microbiol Rev. 1998;11: 480. 9665979
12. Cummings DA, Schwartz IB, Billings L, Shaw LB, Burke DS, Dynamic effects of antibody-dependent enhancement on the fitness of viruses. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005;102: 15259–15264. 16217017
13. Ferguson N, Anderson R, Gupta S, The effect of antibody-dependent enhancement on the transmission dynamics and persistence of multiple-strain pathogens. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1999;96: 790. 9892712
14. Schwartz IB, Shaw LB, Cummings DA, Billings L, McCrary M, Burke DS, Chaotic desynchronization of multistrain diseases. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2005;72: 066201. 16486034
15. Recker M, Blyuss KB, Simmons CP, Hien TT, Wills B, Farrar J, et al. Immunological serotype interactions and their effect on the epidemiological pattern of dengue. P Roy Soc B-Biol Sci. 2009;276: 2541.
16. Wikramaratna PS, Simmons CP, Gupta S, Recker M, The effects of tertiary and quaternary infections on the epidemiology of dengue2010; 5: e12347.
17. Mier-y-Teran-Romero L, Schwartz IB, Cummings DA, Breaking the symmetry: Immune enhancement increases persistence of dengue viruses in the presence of asymmetric transmission rates. J Theor Biol. 2013; 332: 203–210. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2013.04.03623665358
18. Adams B, Holmes EC, Zhang C, Mammen MP, JrNimmannitya S, Kalayanarooj S, et al. Cross-protective immunity can account for the alternating epidemic pattern of dengue virus serotypes circulating in Bangkok. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006;103: 14234–14239. 16966609
19. Wearing HJ, Rohani P, Ecological and immunological determinants of dengue epidemics. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006;103: 11802. 16868086
20. Nagao Y, Koelle K, Decreases in dengue transmission may act to increase the incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008;105: 2238–2243. doi: 10.1073/pnas.070902910518250338
21. Reich NG, Shrestha S, King AA, Rohani P, Lessler J, Kalayanarooj S, et al. Interactions between serotypes of dengue highlight epidemiological impact of cross-immunity. J R Soc Interface. 2013;10: 20130414. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2013.041423825116
22. Lourenço J, Recker M, Natural, Persistent Oscillations in a Spatial Multi-Strain Disease System with Application to Dengue. PLoS Comput Biol. 2013;9: e1003308. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.100330824204241
23. Aguiar M, Ballesteros S, Kooi BW, Stollenwerk N, The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic multi-strain dengue model capturing differences between primary and secondary infections: Complex dynamics and its implications for data analysis. J Theor Biol. 2011;289: 181–196. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.04321907213
24. Grimm V, Railsback SF, Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology. Philos T Roy Soc B. 2012;367: 298–310.
25. Spear R, Hornberger G, Eutrophication in Peel Inlet—II. Identification of critical uncertainties via generalized sensitivity analysis. Water Res. 1980;14: 43–49.
26. Hornberger G, Spear R, Eutrophication in Peel Inlet—I. The problem-defining behavior and a mathematical model for the phosphorus scenario. Water Res. 1980;14: 29–42.
27. Grimm V, Mathematical models and understanding in ecology. Ecol Model. 1994;75: 641–651.
28. Grimm V, Frank K, Jeltsch F, Brandl R, Uchmański J, Wissel C, Pattern-oriented modelling in population ecology. Sci Total Environ. 1996;183: 151–166.
29. Mitchell KM, Mutapi F, Savill NJ, Woolhouse ME, Explaining observed infection and antibody age-profiles in populations with urogenital schistosomiasis. PLoS Comput Biol. 2011; 7(10): e1002237. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.100223722028640
30. Mitchell KM, Mutapi F, Savill NJ, Woolhouse ME, Protective immunity to Schistosoma haematobium infection is primarily an anti-fecundity response stimulated by the death of adult worms. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012;109: 13347–13352. doi: 10.1073/pnas.112105110922847410
31. Coudeville L, Garnett GP, Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination. PloS one. 2012;7: e51244. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.005124423251466
32. Thai KT, Cazelles B, Van Nguyen N, Vo LT, Boni MF, Farrar J, et al. Dengue dynamics in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam: periodicity, synchronicity and climate variability. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010;4: e747. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000074720644621
33. Cuong HQ, Vu NT, Cazelles B, Boni MF, Thai KT, Rabaa MA, et al. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Dengue Epidemics, Southern Vietnam. Emerg Infect Dis. 2013;19(6): 945–953. doi: 10.3201/eid1906.12132323735713
34. Nishiura H, Mathematical and statistical analyses of the spread of dengue. Dengue Bull. 2006;30: 51.
35. Johansson MA, Dominici F, Glass GE, Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2009;3: e382. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000038219221592
36. Mohd-Zaki AH, Brett J, Ismail E, L'Azou M, Epidemiology of Dengue Disease in Malaysia (2000–2012): A Systematic Literature Review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8: e3159. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000315925375211
37. Limkittikul K, Brett J, L'Azou M, Epidemiological Trends of Dengue Disease in Thailand (2000–2011): A Systematic Literature Review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8: e3241. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000324125375766
38. L'Azou M, Taurel A, Flamand C, Quénel P, Recent Epidemiological Trends of Dengue in the French Territories of the Americas (2000–2012): A Systematic Literature Review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8: e3235. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000323525375627
39. Bravo L, Roque VG, Brett J, Dizon R, L'Azou M, Epidemiology of Dengue Disease in the Philippines (2000–2011): A Systematic Literature Review. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8: e3027. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000302725375119
40. L'Azou M, Brett J, Marsh G, Sarti E, Reviewing the Literature for Epidemiological Trends of Dengue Disease: Introduction to a Series of Seven National Systematic Literature Reviews. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8: e3260. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000326025375830
41. Dantés HG, Farfán-Ale JA, Sarti E, Epidemiological Trends of Dengue Disease in Mexico (2000–2011): A Systematic Literature Search and Analysis. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014;8: e3158. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000315825375162
42. Su GL, Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines. Ambio. 2008;37: 292–294. 18686509
43. Chau TNB, Hieu NT, Anders KL, Wolbers M, Hieu LTM, Hien TT, et al. Dengue virus infections and maternal antibody decay in a prospective birth cohort study of Vietnamese infants. J Infect Dis. 2009;200: 1893–1900. doi: 10.1086/64840719911991
44. Gibbons RV, Kalanarooj S, Jarman RG, Nisalak A, Vaughn DW, Endy TP, et al. Analysis of repeat hospital admissions for dengue to estimate the frequency of third or fourth dengue infections resulting in admissions and dengue hemorrhagic fever, and serotype sequences. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2007;77: 910–913. 17984352
45. Welch PD, The use of fast Fourier transform for the estimation of power spectra: a method based on time averaging over short, modified periodograms. IEEE T Acoust Speech. 1967;15: 70–73.
46. Bloomfield P, Fourier analysis of time series: an introduction: John Wiley & Sons; 2004.
47. Recker M, Pybus OG, Nee S, Gupta S, The generation of influenza outbreaks by a network of host immune responses against a limited set of antigenic types. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007;104: 7711. 17460037
48. Stocki R, A method to improve design reliability using optimal Latin hypercube sampling. Comput Assis Mech Eng Sci. 2005;12: 393.
49. Gubler DJ, Suharyono W, Tan R, Abidin M, Sie A, Viraemia in patients with naturally acquired dengue infection. Bull World Health Organ. 1981;59: 623–630. 6976230
50. Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM, Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of dengue: insights from age–stratified sero–prevalence surveys. Philos T Roy Soc B. 1999;354: 757.
51. Lourenco J, Recker M, Viral and epidemiological determinants of the invasion dynamics of novel dengue genotypes. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010;4: e894. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.000089421124880
52. Alfaro-Murillo JA, Towers S, Feng Z, A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift. Journal of Biological Dynamics2013;7: 199–211. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2013.80152323701386
53. Kramer-Schadt S, Revilla E, Wiegand T, Breitenmoser U, Fragmented landscapes, road mortality and patch connectivity: modelling influences on the dispersal of Eurasian lynx. J Appl Ecol. 2004;41: 711–723.
54. Toni T, Welch D, Strelkowa N, Ipsen A, Stumpf MP, Approximate Bayesian computation scheme for parameter inference and model selection in dynamical systems. J R Soc Interface. 2009;6: 187–202. 19205079
55. Saltelli A, Ratto M, Andres T, Campolongo F, Cariboni J, Gatelli D, et al. Global sensitivity analysis: the primer: John Wiley & Sons; 2008.
56. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek J, Metz J, On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J Math Biol. 1990;28: 365–382. 2117040
57. Van den Driessche P, Watmough J, Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math Biosci. 2002;180: 29–48. 12387915
58. Diekmann O, Heesterbeek JAP, Mathematical epidemiology of infectious diseases: model building, analysis and interpretation. West Sussex: Wiley; 2000.
59. Billings L, Schwartz IB, Shaw LB, McCrary M, Burke DS, Cummings DAT, Instabilities in multiserotype disease models with antibody-dependent enhancement. J Theor Biol. 2007;246: 18–27. 17270219
60. Von Bertalanffy L, General system theory: Foundations, development, applications: George BrazillerNew York; 1968.
61. Beven K, A manifesto for the equifinality thesis. J Hydrol. 2006;320: 18–36.
62. Singh BK, Savill NJ, Ferguson NM, Robertson C, Woolhouse MEJ, Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza. BMC Public Health. 2010;10: 726. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-10-72621106071
63. Pedersen EM, Stolk WA, Laney SJ, Michael E, The role of monitoring mosquito infection in the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis. Trends Parasitol. 2009;25: 319. doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2009.03.01319559649
64. Koelle K, Rodo X, Pascual M, Yunus M, Mostafa G, Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature. 2005;436: 696–700. 16079845
65. Topping CJ, Dalkvist T, Grimm V, Post-Hoc Pattern-Oriented Testing and Tuning of an Existing Large Model: Lessons from the Field Vole. PloS one. 2012;7: e45872. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.004587223049882
66. Spear RC, Large simulation models: calibration, uniqueness and goodness of fit. Environ Modell Softw. 1997;12: 219–228.
67. Beck M, Water quality modeling: a review of the analysis of uncertainty. Water Resour Res. 1987;23: 1393–1442.
68. Dilks DW, James RT, Parameter uncertainty in a highly parameterized model of Lake Okeechobee. Lake Reserv Manage. 2011;27: 376–389.
69. Hu K, Thoens C, Bianco S, Edlund S, Davis M, Douglas J, et al. The effect of antibody-dependent enhancement, cross immunity, and vector population on the dynamics of dengue fever. J Theor Biol. 2012; 319: 62–74. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.11.02123206388
70. The World BankWorld Development Indicators 2011. Washington, D.C. USA; 2011.
71. Cummings DA, Iamsirithaworn S, Lessler JT, McDermott A, Prasanthong R, Nisalak A, et al. The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. PLoS Med. 2009;6: e1000139. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.100013919721696
72. Guzman MG, Halstead SB, Artsob H, Buchy P, Farrar J, Gubler DJ, et al. Dengue: a continuing global threat. Nat Rev Microbiol. 2010;8: S7–S16. doi: 10.1038/nrmicro246021079655