Amplified subtropical stationary waves in boreal summer and their implications for regional water extremes

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 10, Issue 10, 2015, Pages

  Yuan, Jiacan ^a   Li, Wenhong ^a   Deng, Yi ^b  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

drought; heavy rainfall; moisture flux; precipitation; subtropical stationary waves; weather extremes

Indexed keywords

AMPLIFICATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; DROUGHT; MOISTURE; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); TROPICS;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; HEAVY RAINFALL; MOISTURE FLUXES; NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN; OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY; STATIONARY WAVES; WAVE AMPLITUDE INDEX; WEATHER EXTREMES;

RAIN;

AMPLIFICATION; AMPLITUDE; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; DROUGHT; EXTREME EVENT; MOISTURE FLUX; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; PROBABILITY; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEVERE WEATHER; STANDING WAVE; SUBTROPICAL REGION; SUMMER;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); CHINA; JAPAN; MEXICO [NORTH AMERICA]; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH); SOUTH ASIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84966355886     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104009     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Adams D K and Comrie A C 1997 The North American monsoon Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78 2197-213
2. Balk D, Deichmann U and Yetman G 2010 ISLSCP II global population of the world ISLSCP Initiative II Collection. Data set ed F G Hall et al ()
3. Banacos P C and Schultz D M 2005 The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: historical and operational perspectives Weather Forecast. 20 351-66
4. Barnes E A 2013 Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 4734-9
5. Braganza K, Karoly D J, Hirst A C, Stott P, Stouffer R J and Tett S F B 2004 Simple indices of global climate variability and change part II: attribution of climate change during the twentieth century Clim. Dyn. 22 823-38
6. Byrne M P and O'Gorman P A 2013 Land-ocean warming contrast over a wide range of climates: convective quasi-equilibrium theory and idealized simulations J. Clim. 26 4000-16
7. Chen M Y, Shi W, Xie P P, Silva V B S, Kousky V E, Higgins R W and Janowiak J E 2008 Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. 113 D04110
8. Chen M Y, Xie P P, Janowiak J E and Arkin P A 2002 Global land precipitation: A 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations J. Hydrometeorol. 3 249-66
9. Chen S C and Trenberth K E 1988 Forced planetary-waves in the northern hemisphere winter - wave-coupled orographic and thermal forcings J. Atmos. Sci. 45 682-704
10. Chen T C 2003 Maintenance of summer monsoon circulations: a planetary-scale perspective J. Clim. 16 2022-37
11. Chen T C 2010 Characteristics of summer stationary waves in the northern hemisphere J. Clim. 23 4489-507
12. Coumou D, Petoukhov V, Rahmstorf S, Petri S and Schellnhuber H J 2014 Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111 12331-6
13. Coumou D and Rahmstorf S 2012 A decade of weather extremes Nat. Clim. Change 2 491-6
14. Coumou D, Robinson A and Rahmstorf S 2013 Global increase in record-breaking monthly-mean temperatures Clim. Change 118 771-82
15. Davis R E, Hayden B P, Gay D A, Phillips W L and Jones G V 1997 The north atlantic subtropical anticyclone J. Clim. 10 728-44
16. Dee D P et al 2011 The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137 553-97
17. Dole R, Hoerling M, Perlwitz J, Eischeid J, Pegion P, Zhang T, Quan X, Xu T and Murray D 2011 Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L06702
18. Francis J A and Vavrus S J 2012 Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L06801
19. Francis J A and Vavrus S J 2015 Evidence for a wavier jet stream in response to rapid Arctic warming Environ. Res. Lett. 10 014005
20. Hassanzadeh P, Kuang Z M and Farrell B F 2014 Responses of midlatitude blocks and wave amplitude to changes in the meridional temperature gradient in an idealized dry GCM Geophys. Res. Lett. 41 5223-32
21. Higgins R W and Shi W 2000 Dominant factors responsible for interannual variability of the summer monsoon in the southwestern United States J. Clim. 13 759-76
22. Higgins R W, Yao Y, Yarosh E S, Janowiak J E and Mo K C 1997 Influence of the great plains low-level jet on summertime precipitation and moisture transport over the central United States J. Clim. 10 481-507
23. Holloway C E and Neelin J D 2009 Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection J. Atmos. Sci. 66 1665-83
24. Holton J R 1992 Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology 3rd edn (New York: Academic) pp 379-80
25. Hoskins B J and Ambrizzi T 1993 Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow J. Atmos. Sci. 50 1661-71
26. Hoskins B J and Karoly D J 1981 The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing J. Atmos. Sci. 38 1179-96
27. Hsu P, Li T and Wang B 2011 Trends in global monsoon area and precipitation over the past 30 years Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L08701
28. Jones P D, Osborn T J, Briffa K R, Folland C K, Horton E B, Alexander L V, Parker D E and Rayner N A 2001 Adjusting for sampling density in grid box land and ocean surface temperature time series J. Geophys. Res. 106 3371-80
29. Kalnay E et al 1996 The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project Bull Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77 437-70
30. Kamae Y, Watanabe M, Kimoto M and Shiogama H 2014 Summertime land-sea thermal contrast and atmospheric circulation over east asia in a warming climate: I. Past changes and future projections Clim. Dyn. 43 2553-68
31. Kobayashi S et al 2015 The JRA-55 reanalysis: general specifications and basic characteristics J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, Ser. II 93 5-48
32. Li W, Li L, Fu R, Deng Y and Wang H 2011 Changes to the North Atlantic subtropical high and its role in the intensification of summer rainfall variability in the Southeastern United States J. Clim. 24 1499-506
33. Li W, Li L, Ting M F, Deng Y, Kushnir Y, Liu Y, Lu Y, Wang C and Zhang P 2013 Intensification of the Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical anticyclones in a warming climate Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 5959-64
34. Li W, Li L, Ting M F and Liu Y M 2012 Intensification of northern hemisphere subtropical highs in a warming climate Nat. Geosci. 5 830-4
35. Liu J, Curry J A, Wang H, Song M and Horton R M 2012 Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109 4074-9
36. Min S K, Zhang X, Zwiers F W and Hegerl G C 2011 Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes Nature 470 378-81
37. Miyasaka T and Nakamura H 2005 Structure and formation mechanisms of the northern hemisphere summertime subtropical highs J. Clim. 18 5046-65
38. Nigam S and DeWeaver E 2003 Stationary waves (orographic and thermally forced) Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences ed J R Holton et al (London: Academic) pp 2243-69
39. Pall P, Aina T, Stone D A, Stott P A, Nozawa T, Hilberts A G J, Lohmann D and Allen M R 2011 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 Nature 470 382-5
40. Petoukhov V, Rahmstorf S, Petri S and Schellnhuber H J 2013 Quasiresonant amplification of planetary waves and recent northern hemisphere weather extremes Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110 5336-41
41. Rahmstorf S and Coumou D 2011 Increase of extreme events in a warming world Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108 17905-9
42. Rayner N A, Parker D E, Horton E B, Folland C K, Alexander L V, Rowell D P, Kent E C and Kaplan A 2003 Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century J. Geophys. Res. 108 4407
43. Rienecker M M et al 2011 MERRA: NASA's modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications J. Clim. 24 3624-48
44. Rodwell M J and Hoskins B J 2001 Subtropical anticyclones and summer monsoons J. Clim. 14 3192-211
45. Schmitz J T and Mullen S L 1996 Water vapor transport associated with the summertime north american monsoon as depicted by ECMWF analyses J. Clim. 9 1621-34
46. Screen J A and Simmonds I 2010 The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification Nature 464 1334-7
47. Screen J A and Simmonds I 2013 Exploring links between Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 959-64
48. Screen J A and Simmonds I 2014 Amplified mid-latitude planetary waves favour particular regional weather extremes Nat. Clim. Change 4 704-9
49. Shaw T A and Voigt A 2015 Tug of war on summertime circulation between radiative forcing and sea surface warming Nat. Geosci. 8 560-6
50. Sui C H, Chung P-H and Li T 2007 Interannual and interdecadal variability of the summertime western north pacific subtropical high Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L11701
51. Sutton R T, Dong B and Gregory J M 2007 Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 L02701
52. Tang Q H, Zhang X J and Francis J A 2014 Extreme summer weather in northern mid-latitudes linked to a vanishing cryosphere Nat. Clim. Change 4 45-50
53. Ting M F 1994 Maintenance of northern summer stationary waves in a Gcm J. Atmos. Sci. 51 3286-308
54. Wang B, Liu J, Kim H J, Webster P J and Yim S Y 2012 Recent change of the global monsoon precipitation (1979-2008) Clim. Dyn. 39 1123-35
55. Wang B, Liu J, Kim H J, Webster P J, Yim S Y and Xiang B Q 2013 Northern hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Nino/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110 5347-52
56. Wang B, Wu R and Lau K-M 2001 Interannual variability of the asian summer monsoon: contrasts between the indian and the western north pacific-east asian monsoons J. Clim. 14 4073-90
57. Weaver S J and Nigam S 2008 Variability of the great plains low-level jet: large-scale circulation context and hydroclimate impacts J. Clim. 21 1532-51
58. White G H 1982 An Observational Study of the Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Summertime General-Circulation J. Atmos. Sci. 39 24-40
59. Woollings T, Harvey B and Masato G 2014 Arctic warming, atmospheric blocking and cold European winters in CMIP5 models Environ. Res. Lett. 9 014002
60. Zhou T et al 2009 Why the western pacific subtropical high has extended westward since the late 1970s J. Clim. 22 2199-215
61. Zhou T and Yu R 2005 Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China J. Geophys. Res. 110 D08104