The use of moisture flux convergence in forecasting convective initiation: Historical and operational perspectives

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 20, Issue 3, 2005, Pages 351-366

  Banacos, Peter C ^a   Schultz, David M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BOUNDARY LAYERS; CONSERVATION; HEAT CONVECTION; MASS TRANSFER; MOISTURE; POTENTIAL ENERGY; RAIN; VAPORS;

CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY (CAPE); CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN); MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE (MFC); SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CONVECTIVE SYSTEM; CONVERGENCE; FORECASTING METHOD; MOISTURE FLUX; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 23144444441     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF858.1     Document Type: Article

References (77)

1. Anderson, C. E., and L. W. Uccellini, 1973: Studies of meteorological factors involved in the formation of severe local storms in the northeast Colorado region. Preprints, Eighth Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Denver, CO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84-89.
2. Beckman, S. K., 1990: A study of 12-h NGM low-level moisture flux convergence centers and the location of severe thunderstorms/heavy rain. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Alberta, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78-83.
3. Beckman, S. K., 1993: Preliminary results of a study on NGM low-level moisture flux convergence and the location of severe thunderstorms. Preprints, 17th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, St. Louis, MO, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 138-142.
4. Bellamy, J. C., 1949: Objective calculations of divergence, vertical velocity, and vorticity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 30, 45-49.
5. Benjamin, S. G., G. A. Grell, J. M. Brown, T. G. Smirnova, and R. Bleck, 2004a: Mesoscale weather prediction with the RUC hybrid isentropic-terrain-following coordinate model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 473-494.
6. Benjamin, S. G., and Coauthors, 2004b: An hourly assimilation-forecast cycle: The RUC. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 495-518.
7. Bothwell, P. D., 1988: Forecasting convection with the AFOS Data Analysis Programs (ADAP-VERSION 2.0). NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS SR-122, 92 pp.
8. Bothwell, P. D., J. A. Hart, and R. L. Thompson, 2002: An integrated three-dimensional objective analysis scheme in use at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 21st Conf. on Severe Local Storms, San Antonio, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., J117-J120.
9. Bradbury, D. L., 1957: Moisture analysis and water budget in three different types of storms. J. Meteor., 14, 559-565.
10. Breiland, J. G., 1958: Meteorological conditions associated with the development of instability lines. J. Meteor., 15, 297-302.
11. Byers, H. R., and R. R. Braham Jr., 1949: The Thunderstorm. U.S. Govt. Printing Office, 287 pp.
12. Carlson, T. N., S. G. Benjamin, G. S. Forbes, and Y.-F. Li, 1983: Elevated mixed layers in the regional severe storm environment: Conceptual model and case studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1453-1473.
13. Charba, J. P., 1975: Operational scheme for short range forecasts of severe local weather. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Norman, OK, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 51-57.
14. Charba, J. P., 1979: Two to six hour severe local storm probabilities: An operational forecasting system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 107, 268-282.
15. Colman, B. R., 1990a: Thunderstorms above frontal surfaces in environments without positive CAPE. Part I: A climatology. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1103-1121.
16. Colman, B. R., 1990b: Thunderstorms above frontal surfaces in environments without positive CAPE. Part II: Organization and instability mechanisms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 1123-1144.
17. Doswell, C. A., III, 1977: Obtaining meteorologically significant surface divergence fields through the filtering property of objective analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 885-892.
18. Doswell, C. A., III, 1982: The operational meteorology of convective weather. Vol. 1: Operational mesoanalysis. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NSSFC-5, 135 pp.
19. Doswell, C. A., III, 1987: The distinction between large-scale and mesoscale contribution to severe convection: A case study example. Wea. Forecasting, 2, 3-16.
20. Doswell, C. A., III, and F. Caracena, 1988: Derivative estimation from marginally sampled vector point functions. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 242-253.
21. Emanuel, K. A., 1994: Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University Press, 580 pp.
22. Fankhauser, J. C., 1965: A comparison of kinematically computed precipitation with observed convective rainfall. National Severe Storms Laboratory Rep. 25, 28 pp.
23. Fritsch, J. M., and R. E. Carbone, 2004: Improving quantitative precipitation forecasts in the warm season: A USWRP research and development strategy. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 955-965.
24. Fuhs, M. J., cited 1996: An evaluation of 12 and 18 hour NGM low-level moisture flux convergence and the proximity of severe thunderstorms. NWS Tech. Attachment 96-02. [Available online at http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ techa/ta6/tech9602/9602.html.]
25. Glickman, T. S., Ed., 2000: Glossary of Meteorology. 2d ed. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 855 pp.
26. Hirt, W. D., 1982: Short-term prediction of convective development using dew point convergence. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Seattle, WA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 201-205.
27. Hudson, H. R., 1970: On the relationship between horizontal moisture convergence and convective cloud formation. ESSA Tech. Memo. ERLTM-NSSL 45, 29 pp.
28. Hudson, H. R., 1971: On the relationship between horizontal moisture convergence and convective cloud formation. J. Appl. Meteor., 10, 755-762.
29. Johns, R. H., 1993: Meteorological conditions associated with bow echo development in convective storms. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 294-299.
30. Johns, R. H., and C. A. Doswell III, 1992: Severe local storms forecasting. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 588-612.
31. Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin, and S. J. Weiss, 2003a: Parameterized updraft mass flux as a predictor of convective intensity. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 106-116.
32. Kain, J. S., M. E. Baldwin., P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. P. Kay, and G. W. Carbin, 2003b: Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 847-860.
33. Kain, J. S., P. R. Janish, S. J. Weiss, M. E. Baldwin, R. S. Schneider, and H. E. Brooks, 2003c: Collaboration between forecasters and research scientists at the NSSL and SPC: The Spring Program. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 1797-1806.
34. Koch, S. E., and J. McCarthy, 1982: The evolution of an Oklahoma dryline. Part II: Boundary-layer forcing of mesoconvective systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 237-257.
35. Korotky, W. D., 1990: The Raleigh tornado of November 28, 1988: The evolution of a tornadic environment. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Kananaskis Park, Alberta, Canada, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 532-537.
36. Krishnamurti, T. N., 1968: A calculation of percentage area covered by convective clouds from moisture convergence. J. Appl. Meteor., 7, 184-195.
37. Kuo, H. L., 1965: On formation and intensification of tropical cyclones through latent heat release by cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 22, 40-63.
38. Kuo, H. L., 1974: Further studies of the parameterization of the influence of cumulus convection on large-scale flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1232-1240.
39. Matsumoto, S., K. Ninomiya, and T. Akiyama, 1967: Cumulus activities in relation to the mesoscale convergence field. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 45, 292-305.
40. McNulty, R. P., 1978a: On upper tropospheric kinematics and severe weather occurrence. Mon. Wea. Rev., 106, 662-672.
41. McNulty, R. P., 1978b: On the potential use of LFM II boundary layer moisture and moisture convergence in convective forecasting. Preprints, Seventh Conf. on Weather Forecasting and Analysis, Silver Spring, MD, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88-93.
42. Moller, A. R., 2001: Severe local storms forecasting. Severe Convective Storms, Meteor. Monogr., No. 50, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 433-480.
43. Moore, J. T., and J. M. Murray, 1982: The contribution of surface, horizontal moisture convergence to the severe convection of 10-11 April 1979. Natl. Wea. Dig., 7, 15-23.
44. Moore, J. T., A. C. Czarnetzki, and P. S. Market, 1998: Heavy precipitation associated with elevated thunderstorms formed in a convectively unstable layer aloft. Meteor. Appl., 5, 373-384.
45. Moore, J. T., F. H. Glass, C. E. Graves, S. M. Rochette, and M. J. Singer, 2003: The environment of warm-season elevated thunderstorms associated with heavy rainfall over the central United States. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 861-878.
46. Negri, A. J., and T. H. Vonder Haar, 1980: Moisture convergence using satellite-derived wind fields: A severe local storm case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1170-1182.
47. Newman, W. R., 1971: The relationship between horizontal moisture convergence and severe storm occurrences. M.S. thesis, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 54 pp. [Available from School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 100 E. Boyd, Rm. 1310, Norman, OK 73019.]
48. Nierow, A., 1989: An evaluation of the NGM's low-level moisture convergence forecasts in predicting heavy precipitation/severe weather. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 626-630.
49. Ostby, F. P., Jr., 1975: An application of severe storm forecast techniques to the outbreak of June 8, 1974. Preprints, Ninth Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Norman, OK, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 7-12.
50. Palmén, E., and E. O. Holopainen, 1962: Divergence, vertical velocity and conversion between potential and kinetic energy in an extratropical disturbance. Geophysica, 8, 89-113.
51. Peslen, C. A., 1980: Short-interval SMS wind vector determinations for a severe local storms area. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1407-1418.
52. Petersen, R. A., W. F. Feltz, J. Schaefer, and R. Schneider, 2000: An analysis of low-level moisture-flux convergence prior to the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City tornadoes. Preprints, 20th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 619-621.
53. Petterssen, S., 1956: Weather Analysis and Forecasting. Vol. 1, Motion and Motion Systems, 2d ed. McGraw-Hill, 428 pp.
54. Rasmusson, E. M., 1967: Atmospheric water vapor transport and the water balance of North America: Part I. Characteristics of the water vapor flux field. Mon. Wea. Rev., 95, 403-426.
55. Raymond, D. J., and K. A. Emanuel, 1993: The Kuo cumulus parameterization. The Representation of Cumulus Convection in Numerical Models, Meteor. Monogr., No. 46, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 145-147.
56. Reed, R. J., G. A. Grell, and Y.-H. Kuo, 1993: The ERICA IOP 5 storm. Part II: Sensitivity tests and further diagnosis based on model output. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1595-1612.
57. Rogash, J. A., and R. D. Smith, 2000: Multiscale overview of a violent tornado outbreak with attendant flash flooding. Wea. Forecasting, 15, 416-431.
58. Schaefer, J. T., and C. A. Doswell III, 1980: The theory and practical application of antitriptic balance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 746-756.
59. Spar, J., 1953: A suggested technique for quantitative precipitation forecasting. Mon. Wea. Rev., 81, 217-221.
60. Spencer, P. L., and C. A. Doswell III, 2001: A quantitative comparison between traditional and line integral methods of derivative estimation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2538-2554.
61. Stensrud, D. J., and R. A. Maddox, 1988: Opposing mesoscale circulations: A case study. Wea. Forecasting, 3, 189-204.
62. Tegtmeier, S. A., 1974: The role of the surface, sub-synoptic, low pressure system in severe weather forecasting. M.S. thesis, School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 66 pp. [Available from School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, 100 E. Boyd, Rm. 1310, Norman, OK 73019.]
63. Ulanski, S. L., and M. Garstang, 1978a: The role of surface divergence and vorticity in the life cycle of convective rainfall. Part I: Observation and analysis. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1047-1062.
64. Ulanski S. L., and M. Garstang, 1978b: The role of surface divergence and vorticity in the life cycle of convective rainfall. Part II: Descriptive model. J. Atmos. Sci., 35, 1063-1069.
65. Väisänen, A., 1961: Investigation of the vertical air movement and related phenomena in selected synoptic situations. Comment. Physico-Math., Soc. Sci. Fenn., 26 (7), 1-73.
66. Waldstreicher, J. S., 1989: A guide to utilizing moisture flux convergence as a predictor of convection. Natl. Wea. Dig., 14 (4), 20-35.
67. Wang, W., and N. L. Seaman, 1997: A comparison study of convective parameterization schemes in a mesoscale model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 252-278.
68. Weckwerth, T. M., and Coauthors, 2004: An overview of the International H2O Project (IHOP-2002) and some preliminary highlights. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 253-277.
69. Wilson, J. W., and W. E. Schreiber, 1986: Initiation of convective storms at radar-observed boundary-layer convergence lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 2516-2536.
70. Wilson, J. W., and C. K. Mueller, 1993: Nowcasts of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 113-131.
71. Wilson, J. W., and D. L. Megenhardt, 1997: Thunderstorm initiation, organization, and lifetime associated with Florida boundary layer convergence lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1507-1525.
72. Wilson, J. W., and R. D. Roberts, 2004: Thunderstorm initiation and evolution during IHOP: Implications for aviation thunderstorm nowcasting. Preprints, 22d Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., CD-ROM, J1.1.
73. Wilson, J. W., J. A. Moore, G. B. Foote, B. Martner, A. R. Rodi, T. Uttal, and J. M. Wilczak, 1988: Convection Initiation and Downburst Experiment (CINDE). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 69, 1328-1348.
74. Wilson, J. W., G. B. Foote, N. A. Crook, J. C. Fankhauser, C. G. Wade, J. D. Tuttle, C. K. Mueller, and S. K. Krueger, 1992: The role of boundary-layer convergence zones and horizontal rolls in the initiation of thunderstorms: A case study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 1785-1815.
75. Wilson, J. W.,, N. A. Crook, C. K. Mueller, J. Sun, and M. Dixon, 1998: Nowcasting thunderstorms: A status report. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 2079-2099.
76. Wilson, J. W., E. E. Ebert, T. R. Saxen, R. D. Roberts, C. K. Mueller, M. Sleigh, C. E. Pierce, and A. Seed, 2004: Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project: Convective storm nowcasting. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 131-150.
77. Ziegler, C. L., and E. N. Rasmussen, 1998: The initiation of moist convection at the dryline: Forecasting issues from a case study perspective. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 1106-1131.