Defining scenarios of future vectors of change in marine life and associated economic sectors

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science

Volumn 201, Issue , 2018, Pages 164-171

  Groeneveld, Rolf A ^a   Bosello, Francesco ^b,c,d   Butenschön, Momme ^e   Elliott, Mike ^f   Peck, Myron A ^g   Pinnegar, John K ^h  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b FONDAZIONE ENI ENRICO MATTEI   (Italy)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MILAN   (Italy)

^d CENTRO EURO MEDITERRANEO SUI CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI   (Italy)

^e PLYMOUTH MARINE LABORATORY   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF HULL   (United Kingdom)

^g UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG   (Germany)

^h CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENT   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climatic changes; Ecosystem management; International policy; Scenarios; Socioeconomic aspects

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPLEXITY; ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT; FUTURE PROSPECT; INTEGRATED APPROACH; INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT; MARINE POLICY; SCENARIO ANALYSIS; SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 84964506120     PISSN: 02727714     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecss.2015.10.020     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Baretta, J.W., Ebenhöh, W., Ruardij, P., The European regional seas ecosystem model, a complex marine ecosystem model. Neth. J. Sea Res. 33:3–4 (1995), 233–246.
2. Borja, A., Elliott, M., Andersen, J.H., Cardoso, A.C., Carstensen, J., Ferreira, J.G., Heiskanen, A.-S., Marques, J.C., Neto, J.M., Teixeira, H., Uusitalo, L., Uyarra, M.C., Zampoukas, N., Good environmental status of marine ecosystems: what is it and how do we know when we have attained it?. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 76:1–2 (2013), 16–27.
3. Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K.-H., Ekvall, T., Finnveden, G., Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide. Futures 38:7 (2006), 723–739.
4. Boyes, S.J., Elliott, M., Marine legislation – the ultimate ‘horrendogram’: International law, European directives & national implementation. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 86:1–2 (2014), 39–47.
5. Brand, F.S., Seidl, R., Le, Q.B., Brändle, J.M., Scholz, R.W., Constructing consistent multiscale scenarios by transdisciplinary processes: the case of mountain regions facing global change. Ecol. Soc., 18(2), 2013.
6. Bundy, A., Coll, M., Shannon, L.J., Shin, Y.-J., Global assessments of the status of marine exploited ecosystems and their management: what more is needed?. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 4:3 (2012), 292–299.
7. Butenschön, M., Kay, S., Future Scenarios of the Biogeochemistry of the Three Regional Seas. 2013, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, UK VECTORS Deliverable 5.1.1.
8. Butenschön, M., Clark, J., Aldridge, J.N., Allen, J.I., Artioli, Y., Blackford, J., Bruggeman, J., Cazenave, P., Ciavatta, S., Kay, S., Lessin, G., van Leeuwen, S., van der Molen, J., de Mora, L., Polimene, L., Sailley, S., Stephens, N., Torres, R., ERSEM 15.06: a generic model for marine biogeochemistry and the ecosystem dynamics of the lower trophic levels. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 8:8 (2015), 7063–7187.
9. Carpenter, S.R., Pingali, P.L., Bennett, E.M., Zurek, M.B., Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Scenarios. 2005, Island Press, Washington.
10. Christensen, V., Walters, C.J., Ecopath with ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecol. Model. 172 (2004), 109–139.
11. Chust, G., Allen, J.I., Bopp, L., Schrum, C., Holt, J., Tsiaras, K., Zavatarelli, M., Chifflet, M., Cannaby, H., Dadou, I., Daewel, U., Wakelin, S.L., Machu, E., Pushpadas, D., Butenschon, M., Artioli, Y., Petihakis, G., Smith, C., Garçon, V., Goubanova, K., Le Vu, B., Fach, B.A., Salihoglu, B., Clementi, E., Irigoien, X., Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean. Glob. Change Biol. 20:7 (2014), 2124–2139.
12. Cormier, R., Kannen, A., Elliott, M., Hall, P., Davies, I.M., Marine and Coastal Ecosystem-based Risk Management Handbook., 2013, International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, Copenhagen ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 317.
13. Cucco, A., Sinerchia, M., Lefrançois, C., Magni, P., Ghezzo, M., Georg Umgiesser, G., Angelo Perilli, A., Domenici, P., A metabolic scope based model of fish response to environmental changes. Ecol. Model. 237/238 (2012), 132–141.
14. Delgado, C.L., Wada, N., Rosegrant, M.W., Meijer, S., Ahmed, M., Fish to 2020: Supply and Demand in Changing Global Markets., 2003, World Fish Center, Penang World Fish Center Technical Report 62.
15. EC, Directive 2014/89/EU of the European Parliament and of the council of 23 July 2014 establishing a framework for maritime spatial planning. Off. J. Eur. Comm., 2014 L 257/135.
16. EIA, International Energy Outlook 2011. 2011, US Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011 http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484(2011).pdf.
17. Elliott, M., Marine science and management means tackling exogenic unmanaged pressures and endogenic managed pressures – a numbered guide. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 62:4 (2011), 651–655.
18. Elliott, M., The 10-tenets for integrated, successful and sustainable marine management. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 74:1 (2013), 1–5.
19. Elliott, M., Integrated marine science and management: wading through the morass. Mar. Pollut. Bull. 86:1–2 (2014), 1–4.
20. Elliott, M., Borja, Á., McQuatters-Gollop, A., Mazik, K., Birchenough, S., Andersen, J.H., Painting, S., Peck, M., Force majeure: will climate change affect our ability to attain good environmental status for marine biodiversity?. Mar. Pollut. Bull 95:1 (2015), 7–27.
21. Elliott, M., Cutts, N.D., Trono, A., A typology of marine and estuarine hazards and risks as vectors of change: a review for vulnerable coasts and their management. Ocean Coast. Manag. 93 (2014), 88–99.
22. EU, Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy (Marine Strategy Framework Directive). Off. J. Eur. Commun., 2008 L 164/19.
23. EU, Regulation (EU) No 1380/2013 of the European Parliament and of the council of 11 December 2013 on the common fisheries policy, amending Council Regulations (EC) No 1954/2003 and (EC) No 1224/2009 and repealing Council Regulations (EC) No 2371/2002 and (EC) No 639/2004 and council decision 2004/585/EC. Off. J. Eur. Commun., 2013 L 354/22.
24. EURELECTRIC, Power Choices: Pathways to Carbon-neutral Electricity in Europe by 2050. 2010, Union of the European Electricity Industry, Brussels http://www.eurelectric.org/media/45274/power__choices_finalcorrection_page70_feb2011-2010-402-0001-01-e.pdf.
25. Failler, P., Van de Walle, G., Lecrivain, N., Himbes, A., Lewins, R., Future Prospects for Fish and Fishery Products: 4. Fish Consumption in the European Union in 2015 and 2030: Part 1. European Overview. 2007, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, Italy FAO Fisheries Circular No. 972/4, Part 1.
26. Fulton, E.A., Interesting times: winners, losers, and system shifts under climate change around Australia. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 68:6 (2011), 1329–1342.
27. Groeneveld, R.A., Bartelings, H., Börger, T., Bosello, F., Buisman, E., Delpiazzo, E., Eboli, F., Fernandes, J.A., Hamon, K.G., Hattam, C., Loureiro, M., Nunes, P.A.L.D., Piwowarczyk, J., Schasfoort, F.E., Simons, S.L., Walker, A.N., Economic impacts of marine ecological change: review and recent contributions. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 2015 Submitted.
28. Halpern, B.S., Walbridge, S., Selkoe, K.A., Kappel, C.V., Micheli, F., D'Agrosa, C., Bruno, J.F., Casey, K.S., Ebert, C., Fox, H.E., Fujita, R., Heinemann, D., Lenihan, H.S., Madin, E.M.P., Perry, M.T., Selig, E.R., Spalding, M., Steneck, R., Watson, R., A global map of human impact on marine ecosystems. Science 319:5865 (2008), 948–952.
29. Haward, M., Davidson, J., Lockwood, M., Hockings, M., Kriwoken, L., Allchin, R., Climate change, scenarios and marine biodiversity conservation. Mar. Pol. 38 (2013), 438–446.
30. Hirschi, C., Widmer, A., Briner, S., Huber, R., Combining policy network and model-based scenario analyses: an assessment of future ecosystem goods and services in Swiss mountain regions. Ecol. Soc., 18(2), 2013, 42.
31. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2009. 2009, International Energy Agency, Paris http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2009/.
32. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011. 2011, International Energy Agency, Paris http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/publications/weo-2011/.
33. IIASA, GGI Scenario Database. 2013, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/GGI/DB/.
34. Jones, M.C., Dye, S.R., Fernandes, J.A., Frölicher, T.L., Pinnegar, J.K., Warren, R., Cheung, W.W.L., Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters. PLoS ONE, 8(1), 2013, e54216.
35. Kay, S., Butenschön, M., Projections for change in environmental conditions in European Marine Protected areas under two scenarios of climate change. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 2015 Submitted.
36. Langmead, O., McQuatters-Gollop, A., Mee, L.D., European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems: Exploring Challenges for Managing Europe's Seas. 2007, University of Plymouth Marine Institute, Plymouth, UK.
37. Maynou, F., Coviability analysis of western Mediterranean fisheries under MSY scenarios for 2020. ICES J. Mar. Sci. J. Conseil 71:7 (2014), 1563–1571.
38. Moss, R.H., Edmonds, J.A., Hibbard, K.A., Manning, M.R., Rose, S.K., van Vuuren, D.P., Carter, T.R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G.A., Mitchell, J.F.B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S.J., Stouffer, R.J., Thomson, A.M., Weyant, J.P., Wilbanks, T.J., The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:7282 (2010), 747–756.
39. Nakićenović, N., Greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 65:2 (2000), 149–166.
40. Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J., Davis, G., de Vries, B., Fenhann, J., Gaffin, S., Gregory, K., Grübler, A., Jung, T.Y., Kram, T., Lebre La Rovere, E., Michaelis, L., Mori, S., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Pitcher, H., Price, L., Riahi, K., Roehrl, A., Rogner, H.-H., Sankovski, A., Schlesinger, M., Shukla, P., Smith, S., Swart, R., van Rooijen, S., Victor, N., Zhou, D., Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: a Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change., 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
41. Peck, M.A., Hufnagl, M., Can IBMs explain why most larvae die in the sea? Model scenarios and sensitivity analyses reveal research needs. J. Mar. Syst. 93 (2012), 77–93.
42. Peck, M.A., Arvanitidis, C., Butenschön, M., Melaku Canu, D., Chatzinikolaou, E., Cucco, A., Domenici, P., Fernandes, J.A., Gasche, L., Huebert, K.B., Hufnagl, M., Jones, M.C., Kempf, A., Keyl, F., Maar, M., Mahévas, S., Marchal, P., Nicolas, D., Pinnegar, J.K., Rivot, E., Rochette, S., Sell, A.F., Sinerchia, M., Solidoro, C., Somerfield, P.J., Teal, R.L., Travers-Trolet, M., van de Wolfshaar, K.E., Understanding and projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: a critical review of modelling approaches. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 2015 Submitted.
43. Pikitch, E.K., Santora, C., Babcock, E.A., Bakun, A., Bonfil, R., Conover, D.O., Dayton, P., Doukakis, P., Fluharty, D., Heneman, B., Houde, E.D., Link, J., Livingston, P.A., Mangel, M., McAllister, M.K., Pope, J., Sainsbury, K.J., Ecosystem-based fishery management. Science 305:5682 (2004), 346–347.
44. Pinnegar, J.K., Viner, D., Hadley, D., Dye, S., Harris, M., Berkout, F., Simpson, M., Alternative Future Scenarios for Marine Ecosystems: Technical Report., 2006, CEFAS, Lowestoft, UK.
45. Schindler, D.E., Hilborn, R., Prediction, precaution, and policy under global change. Science 347:6225 (2015), 953–954.
46. Simons, S.L., Bartelings, H., Hamon, K.G., Kempf, A.J., Döring, R., Temming, A., Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into complex fisheries economic models for management evaluations: the North sea saithe fishery as a case study. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 71:7 (2014), 1638–1652.
47. Soma, K., Ramos, J., Bergh, Ø., Schulze, T., van Oostenbrugge, H., van Duijn, A.P., Kopke, K., Stelzenmüller, V., Grati, F., Mäkinen, T., Stenberg, C., Buisman, E., The “mapping out” approach: effectiveness of marine spatial management options in European coastal waters. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 71:9 (2014), 2630–2642.
48. Stolte, W., Troost, T., Friocourt, Y., Future projection of primary production and phytoplankton composition in the southern North Sea. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 2015 Submitted.
49. Teal, L.R., Van Hal, R., Van Kooten, T., Ruardij, P., Rijnsdorp, A.D., Bio-energetics underpins the spatial response of North sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa L.) and sole (Solea solea L.) to climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 18 (2012), 3291–3305.
50. Toke, D., The UK offshore wind power programme: a sea-change in UK energy policy?. Energy Policy 39:2 (2011), 526–534.
51. UNEP, Global Environment Outlook 3: Past, Present and Future Perspectives. 2002, Earthscan, London.
52. van Hoof, L., Hendriksen, A., Bloomfield, H.J., Sometimes you cannot make it on your own; drivers and scenarios for regional cooperation in implementing the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Mar. Policy 50:Part B (2014), 339–346.
53. van Vuuren, D.P., Riahi, K., Moss, R., Edmonds, J., Thomson, A., Nakicenovic, N., Kram, T., Berkhout, F., Swart, R., Janetos, A., Rose, S.K., Arnell, N., A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Glob. Environ. Change 22:1 (2012), 21–35.
54. Walker, A.N., Weikard, H.-P., Farsightedness, changing stock location and the stability of international fisheries agreements. Environ. Resour. Econ., 2014 (in press).
55. World Bank, Fish to 2030: Prospects for Fisheries and Aquaculture., 2013, World Bank, Washington DC World Bank Report Number 83177-GLB.