Identifying habitats at risk: Simple models can reveal complex ecosystem dynamics

Ecological Applications

Volumn 25, Issue 2, 2015, Pages 573-587

  Maxwell, Paul S ^a,b   Pitt, Kylie A ^a   Olds, Andrew D ^a   Rissik, David ^a   Connolly, Rod M ^a  

^a GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b Healthy Waterways   (Australia)

Author keywords

Bayesian networks; Bistability; Feedbacks; Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia; Nonlinear ecosystem dynamics; Seagrass; Zostera muelleri

Indexed keywords

ECOSYSTEM DYNAMICS; ECOSYSTEM MODELING; ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE; ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE; HABITAT LOSS; SEAGRASS;

AUSTRALIA; BAY; BAYES THEOREM; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; BIOMASS; ECOSYSTEM; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; NONLINEAR SYSTEM; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION; ZOSTERACEAE;

AUSTRALIA; BAYES THEOREM; BAYS; BIOMASS; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; ECOSYSTEM; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; NONLINEAR DYNAMICS; PHYSIOLOGY; POPULATION; ZOSTERACEAE;

AUSTRALIA; MORETON BAY; QUEENSLAND;

ZOSTERA MUELLERI;

EID: 84964308861     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19395582     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/14-0395.1.sm     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. Abal, E., P. Greenfield, S. Bunn, and D. Tarte. 2006. Healthy waterways: Healthy catchments-an integrated research/ management program to understand and reduce impacts of sediments and nutrients on waterways in Queensland, Australia. Pages 1126-1135
2. th Asia-Pacific Web Conference. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany.
3. Abal, E., N. Loneragan, P. Bowen, C. Perry, J. Udy, and W. Dennison. 1994. Physiological and morphological responses of the seagrass, Zostera capricorni (Aschers), to light intensity. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 178:113-129.
4. Aguilera, P. A., A. Fernández, R. Ferná ndez, R. Rumí, and A. Salmeró n. 2011. Bayesian networks in environmental modelling. EnvironmentalModelling and Software 26:1376-1388.
5. Alcoverro, T., and S. Mariani. 2004. Patterns of fish and sea urchin grazing on tropical Indo-Pacific seagrass beds. Ecography 27:361-365.
6. Andersen, T., J. Carstensen, E. Herná ndez-Garciá, and C. M. Duarte. 2009. Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: Approaches to identification. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24:49-57.
7. Anton, A., J. Cebrian, K. Heck, C. Duarte, K. Sheehan, M. Miller, and C. Foster. 2011. Decoupled effect (positive to negative) of nutrient enrichment on ecosystem services. Ecological Applications 21:991-1009.
8. Apostolaki, E. T., S. Vizzini, and I. Karakassis. 2011. Leaf vs. epiphyte nitrogen uptake in a nutrient enriched Mediterranean seagrass (Posidonia oceanica) meadow. Aquatic Botany 96:58-62.
9. Arrivillaga, A., and D. M. Baltz. 1999. Comparison of fishes and macroinvertebrates on seagrass and bare-sand sites on Guatemala's Atlantic coast. Bulletin of Marine Science 65:301-319.
10. Baden, S., A. Emanuelsson, L. Pihl, C. Svensson, and P. Å berg. 2012. Shift in seagrass food web structure over decades is linked to overfishing. Marine Ecology Progress Series 451:61-73.
11. Beger, M., S. A. McKenna, and H. P. Possingham. 2007.Effectiveness of surrogate taxa in the design of coral reef reserve systems in the Indo-Pacific. Conservation Biology 21:1584-1593.
12. Beisner, B. E., D. T. Haydon, and K. Cuddington. 2003.Alternative stable states in ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:376-382.
13. BOM (Bureau of Meteorology). 2012. Climate and past weather. Australian Government. http://www.bom.gov.au/ climate/
14. Boon, P. 1986. Nitrogen pools in seagrass beds of Cymodocea serrulata and Zostera capricorni of Moreton Bay, Australia. Aquatic Botany 25:1-19.
15. Boon, P. L., D. Moriarty, and P. G. Saffigna. 1986. Nitrate metabolism in sediments from seagrass (Zostera capricorni) beds of Moreton Bay, Australia. Marine Biology 91:269-275.
16. Bos, A. R., and M. M. van Katwijk. 2007. Planting density, hydrodynamic exposure and mussel beds affect survival of transplanted intertidal eelgrass. Marine Ecology Progress Series 336:121-129.
17. Brown, C., M. Saunders, H. Possingham, and A. Richardson.2013. Interactions between global and local stressors of ecosystems determine management effectiveness in cumulative impact mapping. Diversity and Distributions 20:538-546.
18. Burfeind, D. D., I. R. Tibbetts, and J. W. Udy. 2009. Habitat preference of three common fishes for seagrass, Caulerpa taxifolia, and unvegetated substrate in Moreton Bay, Australia. Environmental Biology of Fishes 84:317-322.
19. Carr, J., P. D'Odorico, K. McGlathery, and P. Wiberg. 2010.Stability and bistability of seagrass ecosystems in shallow coastal lagoons: Role of feedbacks with sediment resuspension and light attenuation. Journal of Geophysical Research 115:G03011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009JG001103
20. Carr, J. A., P. D'Odorico, K. J. McGlathery, and P. L. Wiberg.2012. Stability and resilience of seagrass meadows to seasonal and interannual dynamics and environmental stress. Journal of Geophysical Research 117:G01007. http://dx.doi.org/10. 1029/2011JG001744
21. Coastal Engineering Research Centre (CERC). 1984. Shore protection manual. Volume 1. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Waterways Experiment Station, Vicksburg, Mississippi, USA.
22. CSIRO. 2012. Receiving Water Quality Model 3 [WWW Document]. CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research. http://www.emg.cmar.csiro.au/www/en/emg/projects/SEQ/ Results/2007- - -08-hindcast.html
23. de Boer, W. F. 2007. Seagrass-sediment interactions, positive feedbacks and critical thresholds for occurrence: A review. Hydrobiologia 591:5-24.
24. Dennison, W. C., and E. G. Abal. 1999. Moreton Bay study: A scientific basis for the Healthy Waterways campaign. South East Queensland Regional Water Quality Management Strategy Team, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
25. DERM (Department of Environment and Resource Management).2008. Marine Parks (Moreton Bay) Zoning Plan 2008:Subordinate Legislation 2008 No.343. Queensland Government, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
26. deYoung, B., M. Barange, G. Beaugrand, R. Harris, R. I. Perry, M. Scheffer, and F. Werner. 2008. Regime shifts in marine ecosystems: Detection, prediction and management. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 23:402-409.
27. Duarte, C. M. 2002. The future of seagrass meadows. Environmental Conservation 29:192-206.
28. Duarte, C. M., J. J. Middelburg, and N. Caraco. 2005. Major role of marine vegetation on the oceanic carbon cycle. Biogeosciences 2:1-8.
29. EHMP (Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program). 2010. Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program 2008-09 Annual Technical Report. South East Queensland Healthy Waterways Partnership, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
30. Foley, M. M., B. S. Halpern, F. Micheli, M. H. Armsby, M. R. Caldwell, C. M. Crain, E. Prahler, N. Rohr, D. Sivas, and M. W. Beck. 2010. Guiding ecological principles for marine spatial planning. Marine Policy 34:955-966.
31. Fonseca, G., P. Hutchings, and F. Gallucci. 2011. Meiobenthic communities of seagrass beds (Zostera capricorni) and unvegetated sediments along the coast of New South Wales, Australia. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 91:69-77.
32. Gil, M., A. R. Armitage, and J. W. Fourqurean. 2006.Nutrient impacts on epifaunal density and species composition in a subtropical seagrass bed. Hydrobiologia 569:437-447.
33. Gray, C. A., D. J. McElligott, and R. C. Chick. 1996. Intra- and inter-estuary differences in assemblages of fishes associated with shallow seagrass and bare sand. Marine and Freshwater Research 47:723-735.
34. Grech, A., and R. G. Coles. 2010. An ecosystem-scale predictive model of coastal seagrass distribution. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 20:437-444.
35. Grinham, A., D. Gale, and J. Udy. 2011. Impact of sediment type, light and nutrient availability on benthic diatom communities of a large estuarine bay: Moreton Bay, Australia. Journal of Paleolimnology 46:511-523.
36. Gunderson, L. H. 2000. Ecological resilience-in theory and application. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 31:425-439.
37. Hansen, J., and M. Reidenbach. 2012. Wave and tidally driven flows in eelgrass beds and their effect on sediment suspension. Marine Ecology Progress Series 448:271-287.
38. Harborne, A. R., P. J. Mumby, C. V. Kappel, C. P. Dahlgren, F. Micheli, K. E. Holmes, and D. R. Brumbaugh. 2008. Tropical coastal habitats as surrogates of fish community structure, grazing, and fisheries value. Ecological Applications 18:1689-1701.
39. Hauxwell, J., J. Cebriá n, C. Furlong, and I. Valiela. 2001.Macroalgal canopies contribute to eelgrass (Zostera marina) decline in temperate estuarine ecosystems. Ecology 82:1007-1022.
40. Hays, C. G. 2005. Effect of nutrient availability, grazer assemblage and seagrass source population on the interaction between Thalassia testudinum (turtle grass) and its algal epiphytes. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 314:53-68.
41. Heck, K., G. Hays, and R. Orth. 2003. Critical evaluation of the nursery role hypothesis for seagrass meadows. Marine Ecology Progress Series 253:123-136.
42. Heck, K., Jr., J. Pennock, J. Valentine, L. Coen, and S. Sklenar.2000. Effects of nutrient enrichment and small predator density on seagrass ecosystems: An experimental assessment. Limnology and Oceanography 45:1041-1057.
43. Heck, K. L., Jr., and J. F. Valentine. 2006. Plant-herbivore interactions in seagrass meadows. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 330:420-436.
44. Holzkä mper, A., V. Kumar, B. Surridge, A. Paetzold, and D. Lerner. 2012. Bringing diverse knowledge sources together-A meta-model for supporting integrated catchment management. Journal of Environmental Management 96:116-127.
45. Hootsmans, M., and J. E. Vermaat. 1985. The effect of periphyton-grazing by three epifaunal species on the growth of Zostera marina under experimental conditions. Aquatic Botany 22:83-88.
46. Hyland, S. J., A. J. Courtney, and C. T. Butler. 1989.Distribution of seagrass in the Moreton region from Coolangatta to Noosa. QDPI Information Series QI89010. Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
47. Kirkman, H. 1978. Decline of seagrass in northern areas of Moreton Bay, Queensland. Aquatic Botany 5:63-76.
48. Koch, E. W., E. B. Barbier, B. R. Silliman, D. J. Reed, G. M. E. Perillo, S. D. Hacker, E. F. Granek, J. H. Primavera, N. Muthiga, and S. Polasky. 2009. Non-linearity in ecosystem services: Temporal and spatial variability in coastal protection. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 7:29-37.
49. Korb, K. B., and A. E. Nicholson. 2004. Bayesian artificial intelligence. Chapman and Hall/CRC, London, UK. Larkum, A. W. D., R. J. Orth, and C. M. Duarte. 2006. Seagrasses: Biology, ecology and conservation, ecology and conservation. Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
50. Leigh, C., B. Stewart-Koster, F. Sheldon, and M. Burford.2012. Understanding multiple ecological responses to anthropogenic disturbance: Rivers and potential flow regime change. Ecological Applications 22:250-263.
51. Lewis, R. J., L. M. Johnson, and K. D. Hoagland. 2002. Effects of cell density, temperature, and light intensity on growth and stalk production in the biofouling diatom Achnanthes longipes (Bacillariophyceae). Journal of Phycology 38:1125-1131.
52. Lohrer, A. M., S. F. Thrush, and M. M. Gibbs. 2004.Bioturbators enhance ecosystem function through complex biogeochemical interactions. Nature 431:1092-1095.
53. Longstaff, B., N. Loneragan, M. O'Donohue, and W. Dennison. 1999. Effects of light deprivation on the survival and recovery of the seagrass Halophila ovalis (R. Br.) Hook. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 234:1-27.
54. Marcot, B. G., J. D. Steventon, G. D. Sutherland, and R. K. McCann. 2006. Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36:3063-3074.
55. Maxwell, P., K. Pitt, D. Burfeind, A. Olds, R. Babcock, and R. Connolly. 2014. Phenotypic plasticity promotes persistence following severe events: Physiological and morphological responses of seagrass to flooding. Journal of Ecology 102:54-64.
56. McCann, R. K., B. G. Marcot, and R. Ellis. 2006. Bayesian belief networks: Applications in ecology and natural resource management. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36:3053-3062.
57. McGlathery, K. J., K. Sundback, and I. C. Anderson. 2007.Eutrophication in shallow coastal bays and lagoons: The role of plants in the coastal filter. Marine Ecology Progress Series 348:1-18.
58. Moss, A. 1998. Impacts of the May 1996 flood on water quality in Moreton Bay. Pages 553-568 in I. R. Tibbetts, N. J. Hall, and W. C. Dennison, editors. Moreton Bay and Catchment. School of Marine Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
59. Neckles, H. A., R. L. Wetzel, and R. J. Orth. 1993. Relative effects of nutrient enrichment and grazing on epiphyte-macrophyte (Zostera marina L.) dynamics. Oecologia 93:285-295.
60. Norsys. 2012. Netica version 4.16. Norsys Software Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. http://www. norsys.com
61. Nyström, M., A. V. Norström, T. Blenckner, M. la Torre-Castro, J. S. Eklö f, C. Folke, H. Ö sterblom, R. S. Steneck, M. Thyresson, and M. Troell. 2012. Confronting feedbacks of degraded marine ecosystems. Ecosystems 15:695-710.
62. O'Brien, K., D. Tuazon, A. R. Grinham, and D. Callaghan.2012. Impact of mud deposited by 2011 flood on marine and estuarine habitats in Moreton Bay. Healthy Waterways Partnership, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
63. Orth, R. J., T. J. B. Carruthers, W. C. Dennison, C. M. Duarte, J. W. Fourqurean, K. L. Heck, Jr., A. R. Hughes, G. A.Kendrick, W. J. Kenworthy, and S. Olyarnik. 2006. A global crisis for seagrass ecosystems. BioScience 56:987-996.
64. Pattiaratchi, C. B., and P. T. Harris. 2002. Hydrodynamic and sand-transport controls on an echelon sandbank formation: An example from Moreton Bay, eastern Australia. Marine Freshwater Research 53:1101.
65. Pollino, C. A., O. Woodberry, A. Nicholson, K. Korb, and B. T. Hart. 2007. Parameterisation and evaluation of a Bayesian network for use in an ecological risk assessment. Environmental Modelling Software 22:1140-1152.
66. Reckhow, K. H. 1994. Importance of scientific uncertainty in decision making. Environmental Management 18:161-166.
67. Renken, H., and P. J. Mumby. 2009. Modelling the dynamics of coral reef macroalgae using a Bayesian belief network approach. Ecological Modelling 220:1305-1314.
68. Roelfsema, C., E. M. Kovacs, M. I. Saunders, S. Phinn, M. Lyons, and P. S. Maxwell. 2013. Challenges of remote sensing for quantifying changes in large complex seagrass environments. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 133:161-171.
69. Roelfsema, C., S. Phinn, N. Udy, and P. Maxwell. 2009. An integrated field and remote sensing approach for mapping seagrass cover, Moreton Bay, Australia. Journal of Spatial Science 54:45-62.
70. Saunders, M., J. Leon, S. Phinn, D. Callaghan, K. O'Brien, C. Roelfsema, C. Lovelock, M. Lyons, and P. Mumby. 2013.Coastal retreat and improved water quality mitigate losses of seagrass from sea level rise. Global Change Biology 19:2569-2583.
71. Stapel, J., T. L. Aarts, B. Van Duynhoven, J. D. De Groot, P. Van den Hoogen, and M. A. Hemminga. 1996. Nutrient uptake by leaves and roots of the seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in the Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia. Marine Ecology Progress Series 134:195-206.
72. Stewart-Koster, B., S. Bunn, S. J. Mackay, N. Poff, R. Naiman, and P. Lake. 2010. The use of Bayesian networks to guide investments in flow and catchment restoration for impaired river ecosystems. Freshwater Biology 55:243-260.
73. Suding, K. N., K. L. Gross, and G. R. Houseman. 2004.Alternative states and positive feedbacks in restoration ecology. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19:46-53.
74. Suding, K. N., and R. J. Hobbs. 2009. Threshold models in restoration and conservation: A developing framework. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24:271-279.
75. Suykerbuyk, W., T. J. Bouma, T. van der Heide, C. Faust, L. L. Govers, W. B. J. T. Giesen, D. J. de Jong, and M. M. van Katwijk. 2012. Suppressing antagonistic bioengineering feedbacks doubles restoration success. Ecological Applications 22:1224-1231.
76. Syphard, A. D., K. C. Clarke, J. Franklin, H. M. Regan, and M. Mcginnis. 2011. Forecasts of habitat loss and fragmentation due to urban growth are sensitive to source of input data. Journal of Environmental Management 92:1882-1893.
77. Thomas, F. I. M., C. D. Cornelisen, and J. M. Zande. 2000.Effects of water velocity and canopy morphology on ammonium uptake by seagrass communities. Ecology 81:2704-2713.
78. Thrush, S. F., J. E. Hewitt, P. K. Dayton, G. Coco, A. M. Lohrer, A. Norkko, J. Norkko, and M. Chiantore. 2009.Forecasting the limits of resilience: Integrating empirical research with theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 276:3209-3217.
79. Thursby, G. B., and M. M. Harlin. 1984. Interaction of leaves and roots of Ruppia maritima in the uptake of phosphate, ammonia and nitrate. Marine Biology 83:61-67.
80. Ticehurst, J. L., L. T. Newham, D. Rissik, R. A. Letcher, and A. J. Jakeman. 2007. A Bayesian network approach for assessing the sustainability of coastal lakes in New South Wales, Australia. Environmental Modelling Software 22:1129-1139.
81. Tomasko, D., and B. Lapointe. 1991. Productivity and biomass of Thalassia testudinum as related to water column nutrient availability and epiphyte levels: Field observations and experimental studies. Marine Ecology Progress Series 75:9-17.
82. Udy, J. W., and W. C. Dennison. 1997. Growth and physiological responses of three seagrass species to elevated sediment nutrients in Moreton Bay, Australia. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology 217:253-277.
83. Valentine, J. F., and K. Heck, Jr. 1999. Seagrass herbivory: Evidence for the continued grazing of marine grasses. Marine Ecology Progress Series 176:291-302.
84. van der Heide, T., E. H. van Nes, G. W. Geerling, A. J. P. Smolders, T. J. Bouma, and M. M. van Katwijk. 2007.Positive feedbacks in seagrass ecosystems: Implications for success in conservation and restoration. Ecosystems 10:1311-1322.
85. van der Heide, T., E. H. van Nes, M. M. van Katwijk, H. Olff, and A. J. P. Smolders. 2011. Positive feedbacks in seagrass ecosystems-evidence from large-scale empirical data. PLoS One 6:e16504.
86. van Katwijk, M., and D. Hermus. 2000. Effects of water dynamics on Zostera marina: Transplantation experiments in the intertidal Dutch Wadden Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series 208:107-118.
87. van Katwijk, M. M., A. R. Bos, V. N. de Jonge, L. S. A. M. Hanssen, D. C. R. Hermus, and D. J. de Jong. 2009.Guidelines for seagrass restoration: Importance of habitat selection and donor population, spreading of risks, and ecosystem engineering effects. Marine Pollution Bulletin 58:179-188.
88. van Nes, E. H., T. Amaro, M. Scheffer, and G. C. Duineveld.2007. Possible mechanisms for a marine benthic regime shift in the North Sea. Marine Ecology Progress Series 330:39-47.
89. Viaroli, P., M. Bartoli, G. Giordani, M. Naldi, S. Orfanidis, and J. M. Zaldivar. 2008. Community shifts, alternative stable states, biogeochemical controls and feedbacks in eutrophic coastal lagoons: A brief overview. Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems 18:S105-S117.
90. Ward, L. G., W. Michael Kemp, and W. R. Boynton. 1984. The influence of waves and seagrass communities on suspended particulates in an estuarine embayment. Marine Geology 59:85-103.
91. Waycott, M., C. M. Duarte, T. J. B. Carruthers, R. J. Orth, W. C. Dennison, S. Olyarnik, A. Calladine, J. W. Fourqurean, K. L. Heck, and A. R. Hughes. 2009. Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 106:12377-12381.
92. Webster, I. T., and G. P. Harris. 2004. Anthropogenic impacts on the ecosystems of coastal lagoons: Modelling fundamental biogeochemical processes and management implications. Marine and Freshwater Research 55:67-78.
93. Young, T. P. 2000. Restoration ecology and conservation biology. Biological Conservation 92:73-83.
94. Young, T. P., J. M. Chase, and R. T. Huddleston. 2001.Community succession and assembly: Comparing, contrasting and combining paradigms in the context of ecological restoration. Ecological Restoration 19:5-18.