Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 113, Issue 11, 2016, Pages E1434-E1441

  Kopp, Robert E ^a,b,c   Kemp, Andrew C ^d   Bittermann, Klaus ^e   Horton, Benjamin P ^a,b,f,g   Donnelly, Jeffrey P ^h   Gehrels, W Roland ⁱ   Hay, Carling C ^a,b,j   Mitrovica, Jerry X ^j   Morrow, Eric D ^a,b   Rahmstorf, Stefan ^e  

^a RUTGERS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b USA   (United States)

^c Rutgers University   (United States)

^d TUFTS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^e POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^f NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY   (Singapore)

^g NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY   (Singapore)

^h WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION   (United States)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF YORK   (United Kingdom)

^j HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

Climate; Common Era; Late Holocene; Ocean; Sea level

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CARBON FOOTPRINT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTROLLED STUDY; GLACIER; GLOBAL SEA LEVEL; GULF STREAM; ICE COVER; PRIORITY JOURNAL; PROCESS MODEL; RADIATIVE FORCING; SEA LEVEL; SEDIMENT; TEMPERATURE; TIDE;

EID: 84962607393     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517056113     Document Type: Article

References (106)

1. Mann ME, et al. (2009) Global signatures and dynamical origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 326(5957):1256-1260.
2. Marcott SA, Shakun JD, Clark PU, Mix AC (2013) A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years. Science 339(6124):1198-1201.
3. PAGES 2K Consortium (2013) Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia. Nat Geosci 6(5):339-346.
4. Jevrejeva S, Grinsted A, Moore J (2009) Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850. Geophys Res Lett 36(20):L20706.
5. Kemp AC, et al. (2011) Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(27):11017-11022.
6. Lambeck K, Anzidei M, Antonioli F, Benini A, Esposito A (2004) Sea level in Roman time in the Central Mediterranean and implications for recent change. Earth Planet Sci Lett 224(3-4):563-575.
7. Sivan D, et al. (2004) Ancient coastal wells of Caesarea Maritima, Israel, an indicator for relative sea level changes during the last 2000 years. Earth Planet Sci Lett 222(1):315-330.
8. Woodroffe CD, McGregor HV, Lambeck K, Smithers SG, Fink D (2012) Mid-Pacific microatolls record sea-level stability over the past 5000 yr. Geology 40(10):951-954.
9. Lambeck K, Rouby H, Purcell A, Sun Y, Sambridge M (2014) Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 111(43):15296-15303.
10. Masson-Delmotte V, et al. (2013) Information from paleoclimate archives. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Stocker TF, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 383-464.
11. Van Veen J (1945) Bestaat er een geologische bodemdaling te amsterdam sedert 1700. Tijdschr K Ned Aardr Gen 62:2-36.
12. Hay CC, Morrow E, Kopp RE, Mitrovica JX (2015) Probabilistic reanalysis of twentiethcentury sea-level rise. Nature 517(7535):481-484.
13. Cressie N, Wikle CK (2011) Statistics for Spatio-Temporal Data (Wiley, New York).
14. Tingley MP, et al. (2012) Piecing together the past: Statistical insights into paleoclimatic reconstructions. Quat Sci Rev 35:1-22.
15. Rasmussen C, Williams C (2006) Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning (MIT Press, Cambridge, MA).
16. Yin J, Goddard PB (2013) Oceanic control of sea level rise patterns along the east coast of the United States. Geophys Res Lett 40(20):5514-5520.
17. Mitrovica JX, et al. (2011) On the robustness of predictions of sea level fingerprints. Geophys J Int 187(2):729-742.
18. Kopp RE, Hay CC, Little CM, Mitrovica JX (2015) Geographic variability of sea-level change. Curr Clim Change Rep 1(3):192-204.
19. Woodworth PL, Maqueda MÁM, Roussenov VM, Williams RG, Hughes CW (2014) Mean sea-level variability along the northeast American Atlantic coast and the roles of the wind and the overturning circulation. J Geophys Res 119(12):8916-8935.
20. Grinsted A, Moore JC, Jevrejeva S (2009) Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD. Clim Dyn 34(4):461-472.
21. Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315(5810):368-370.
22. Vermeer M, Rahmstorf S (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(51):21527-21532.
23. Schaeffer M, Hare W, Rahmstorf S, Vermeer M (2012) Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming levels. Nat Clim Change 2:867-870.
24. Bittermann K, Rahmstorf S, Perrette M, VermeerM (2013) Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data. Environ Res Lett 8(1):014013.
25. Gregory JM, et al. (2013) Twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts? J Clim 26(13):4476-4499.
26. Becker M, Karpytchev M, Lennartz-Sassinek S (2014) Long-term sea level trends: Natural or anthropogenic? Geophys Res Lett 41(15):5571-5580.
27. Dangendorf S, et al. (2015) Detecting anthropogenic footprints in sea level rise. Nat Commun 6:7849.
28. Meehl G, et al. (2007) Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, eds Solomon S, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 747-845.
29. Church JA, et al. (2013) Sea level change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, eds Stocker TF, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 1137-1216.
30. Kopp RE, et al. (2014) Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide gauge sites. Earths Future 2(8):383-406.
31. Horton BP, Rahmstorf S, Engelhart SE, Kemp AC (2014) Expert assessment of sealevel rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quat Sci Rev 84:1-6.
32. Joughin I, Smith BE, Medley B (2014) Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica. Science 344(6185):735-738.
33. Angulo RJ, Giannini PCF, Suguio K, Pessenda LCR (1999) Relative sea-level changes in the last 5500 years in southern Brazil (Laguna-Imbituba region, Santa Catarina State) based on vermetid 14C ages. Mar Geol 159(1-4):323-339.
34. Barlow NLM, et al. (2014) Salt-marsh reconstructions of relative sea-level change in the North Atlantic during the last 2000 years. Quat Sci Rev 99:1-16.
35. Baxter AJ (1997) Late Quaternary palaeoenvironments of the Sandveld, Western Cape Province, South Africa. Ph.D. thesis (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa).
36. Cinquemani LJ, Newman WS, Sperling JA, Marcus LF, Pardi RR (1982) Holocene sea level changes and vertical movements along the east coast of the United States: A preliminary report. Holocene Sea Level Fluctuations, Magnitude and Causes, ed Colquhoun D (Univ South Carolina, Columbia), pp 13-33.
37. Compton JS (2001) Holocene sea-level fluctuations inferred from the evolution of depositional environments of the southern Langebaan Lagoon salt marsh, South Africa. Holocene 11(4):395-405.
38. Dawson S, Smith D (1997) Holocene relative sea-level changes on the margin of a glacio-isostatically uplifted area: An example from northern Caithness, Scotland. Holocene 7(1):59-77.
39. Deevey ES, Gralenski LJ, Hoffren V (1959) Yale natural radiocarbon measurements IV. Radiocarbon 1:144-159.
40. Delibras C, Laborel J (1969) Recent variations of the sea level along the Brazilian coast. Quaternaria 14:45-49.
41. Donnelly JP, et al. (2001) Sedimentary evidence of intense hurricane strikes from New Jersey. Geology 29(7):615-618.
42. Donnelly JP, Cleary P, Newby P, Ettinger R (2004) Coupling instrumental and geological records of sea-level change: Evidence from southern New England of an increase in the rate of sea-level rise in the late 19th century. Geophys Res Lett 31(5): L05203.
43. Donnelly JP, Butler J, Roll S, Wengren M, Webb T (2004) A backbarrier overwash record of intense storms from Brigantine, New Jersey. Mar Geol 210:107-121.
44. Donnelly JP (2006) A revised late Holocene sea-level record for northern Massachusetts, USA. J Coast Res 22(5):1051-1061.
45. Engelhart SE, Horton BP (2012) Holocene sea level database for the Atlantic coast of the United States. Quat Sci Rev 54:12-25.
46. Garcia-Artola A, Cearreta A, Leorri E, Irabien M, Blake W (2009) Coastal salt-marshes as geological archives of recent sea-level changes. Geogaceta 47:109-112.
47. Gehrels WR, et al. (2005) Onset of recent rapid sea-level rise in the western Atlantic Ocean. Quat Sci Rev 24:2083-2100.
48. Gehrels WR, et al. (2006) Late Holocene sea-level changes and isostasy in western Denmark. Quat Res 66(2):288-302.
49. Gehrels WR, et al. (2006) Rapid sea-level rise in the North Atlantic Ocean since the first half of the nineteenth century. Holocene 16(7):949-965.
50. Gehrels WR, Hayward B, Newnham RM, Southall KE (2008) A 20th century acceleration of sea-level rise in New Zealand. Geophys Res Lett 35(2):L02717.
51. Gehrels WR, Dawson DA, Shaw J, Marshall WA (2011) Using Holocene relative sealevel data to inform future sea-level predictions: An example from southwest England. Global Planet Change 78(3-4):116-126.
52. Gehrels WR, et al. (2012) Nineteenth and twentieth century sea-level changes in Tasmania and New Zealand. Earth Planet Sci Lett 315-316:94-102.
53. Gehrels WR, Anderson WP (2014) Reconstructing Holocene sea-level change from coastal freshwater peat: A combined empirical and model-based approach. Mar Geol 353:140-152.
54. Gibb J (1986) A New Zealand regional Holocene eustatic sea-level curve and its application to determination of vertical tectonic movement. R Soc N Z Bull 24:377-395.
55. González JL, Törnqvist TE (2009) A new Late Holocene sea-level record from the Mississippi Delta: Evidence for a climate/sea level connection? Quat Sci Rev 28:1737-1749.
56. Goodwin ID, Harvey N (2008) Subtropical sea-level history from coral microatolls in the Southern Cook Islands, since 300 AD. Mar Geol 253(1-2):14-25.
57. Horton BP, et al. (2009) Holocene sea-level changes along the North Carolina coastline and their implications for glacial isostatic adjustment models. Quat Sci Rev 28:1725-1736.
58. Horton BP, et al. (2013) Influence of tidal-range change and sediment compaction on holocene relative sea-level change in New Jersey, USA. J Quaternary Sci 28(4):403-411.
59. Ireland S (1988) Holocene coastal changes in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. Doctoral thesis (Durham University, Durham, UK).
60. Kemp AC, et al. (2013) Sea-level change during the last 2500 years in New Jersey, USA. Quat Sci Rev 81:90-104.
61. Kemp AC, et al. (2014) Late Holocene sea-and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic coast. Mar Geol 357:90-100.
62. Kemp AC, et al. (2015) Relative sea-level change in Connecticut (USA) during the last 2200 yrs. Earth Planet Sci Lett 428:217-229.
63. Leorri E, Horton BP, Cearreta A (2008) Development of a foraminifera-based transfer function in the Basque marshes, N. Spain: Implications for sea-level studies in the Bay of Biscay. Mar Geol 251(1-2):60-74.
64. Leorri E, Cearreta A (2009) Anthropocene versus Holocene relative sea-level rise rates in the southern Bay of Biscay. Geogaceta 46:127-130.
65. Leorri E, Cearreta A, Milne G (2012) Field observations and modelling of Holocene sea-level changes in the southern Bay of Biscay: Implication for understanding current rates of relative sea-level change and vertical land motion along the Atlantic coast of SW Europe. Quat Sci Rev 42:59-73.
66. Long A, Tooley M (1995) Holocene sea-level and crustal movements in Hampshire and Southeast England, United Kingdom. J Coast Res 17:299-310.
67. Long A, Scaife R, Edwards R (2000) Stratigraphic architecture, relative sea-level, and models of estuary development in southern England: New data from Southampton Water. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ 175:253-279.
68. Long AJ, et al. (2012) Relative sea-level change in Greenland during the last 700 yrs and ice sheet response to the Little Ice Age. Earth Planet Sci Lett 315-316:76-85.
69. Long AJ, et al. (2014) Contrasting records of sea-level change in the eastern and western North Atlantic during the last 300 years. Earth Planet Sci Lett 388:110-122.
70. Martin A (1968) Pollen analysis of Groenvlei lake sediments, Knysna (South Africa). Rev Palaeobot Palynol 7(2):107-144.
71. Martin L, Suguio K (1978) Excursion route along the coastline between the town of Cananéia (State of São Paulo) and Guaratiba outlet (State of Rio de Janeiro). International Symposium on Global Changes in South America during the Quaternary (Univ Sao Paolo, Sao Paolo, Brazil), Vol 2, pp 264-274.
72. Miller KG, et al. (2009) Sea-level rise in New Jersey over the past 5000 years: Implications to anthropogenic changes. Global Planet Change 66(1-2):10-18.
73. Nydick KR, Bidwell AB, Thomas E, Varekamp JC (1995) A sea-level rise curve from Guilford, Connecticut, USA. Mar Geol 124(1-4):137-159.
74. Pardi RR, Tomecek L, Newman WS (1984) Queens College radiocarbon measurements IV. Radiocarbon 26(3):412-430.
75. Redfield AC, Rubin M (1962) The age of salt marsh peat and its relation to recent changes in sea level at Barnstable, Massachusetts. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 48(10): 1728-1735.
76. Saher MH, et al. (2015) Sea-level changes in Iceland and the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last half millennium. Quat Sci Rev 108:23-36.
77. Scott DB, Gayes PT, Collins ES (1995) Mid-Holocene precedent for a future rise in sea level along the Atlantic Coast of North America. J Coast Res 11(3):615-622.
78. Shennan I, Horton B (2002) Relative sea-level changes and crustal movements of the UK. J Quaternary Sci 16:511-526.
79. Spaur C, Snyder S (1999) Coastal wetlands evolution at the leading edge of the marine transgression: Jarrett Bay, North Carolina. J N C Acad Sci 115(1):20-46.
80. Stéphan P, et al. (2015) Holocene salt-marsh sedimentary infilling and relative sealevel changes in West Brittany (France) using foraminifera-based transfer functions. Boreas 44(1):153-177.
81. Strachan K, Finch J, Hill T, Barnett R (2014) A late Holocene sea-level curve for the east coast of South Africa. S Afr J Sci 110(1/2):2013-0198.
82. Stuiver M, Daddario JJ (1963) Submergence of the New Jersey Coast. Science 142(3594):951.
83. Stuiver M, Deevey ES, Rouse I (1963) Yale natural radiocarbon measurements. Radiocarbon 5:312-341.
84. Szkornik K, GehrelsWR,Murray AS (2008) Aeolian sand movement and relative sea-level rise in Ho Bugt, western Denmark, during the 'Little Ice Age.' Holocene 18(6):951-965.
85. Van de Plassche O (1991) Late Holocene sea-level fluctuations on the shore of Connecticut inferred from transgressive and regressive overlap boundaries in saltmarsh deposits. J Coast Res 11:159-179.
86. Van de Plassche O, Van Der Borg K, de Jong AF (1998) Sea level-climate correlation during the past 1400 yr. Geology 26(4):319-322.
87. Van de Plassche O, Van Der Borg K, De Jong A (2002) Relative sea-level rise across the Eastern Border fault (Branford, Connecticut): Evidence against seismotectonic movements. Mar Geol 184(1-2):61-68.
88. Woodroffe SA, Long AJ, Milne GA, Bryant CL, Thomas AL (2015) New constraints on late Holocene eustatic sea-level changes from Mahé, Seychelles. Quat Sci Rev 115:1-16.
89. McGregor H, Fischer M, Gagan M, Fink D, Woodroffe C (2011) Environmental control of the oxygen isotope composition of Porites coral microatolls. Geochim Cosmochim Acta 75(14):3930-3944.
90. Milne GA, Long AJ, Bassett SE (2005) Modelling Holocene relative sea-level observations from the Caribbean and South America. Quat Sci Rev 24:1183-1202.
91. Angulo RJ, de Souza MC, Reimer PJ, Sasaoka SK (2005) Reservoir effect of the southern and southeastern Brazilian coast. Radiocarbon 47(1):67-73.
92. Reimer PJ, et al. (2013) IntCal13 and Marine13 radiocarbon age calibration curves 0-50,000 years cal BP. Radiocarbon 55(4):1869-1887.
93. Holgate SJ, et al. (2013) New data systems and products at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level. J Coast Res 29(3):493-504.
94. Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) (2014) Tide gauge data. Available at www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/. Accessed September 29, 2014.
95. Bogdanov VI, Laitos G (2000) Mean Monthly Series of Sea Level Observations (1777 ?1993) at the Kronstadt Gauge (Finnish Geodetic Inst, Kirkkonummi, Finland).
96. Ekman M (1988) The world's longest continued series of sea level observations. Pure Appl Geophys 127(1):73-77.
97. McHutchon A, Rasmussen C (2011) Gaussian process training with input noise. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (Neural Inf Process Syst Found, La Jolla, CA), Vol 24, pp 1341-1349.
98. Peltier WR (2004) Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the ice-age Earth: The ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 32: 111-149.
99. Hastings WK (1970) Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika 57(1):97-109.
100. Brohan P, Kennedy JJ, Harris I, Tett SFB, Jones PD (2006) Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. J Geophys Res 111(D12):D12106.
101. Meinshausen M, Raper SCB, Wigley TML (2011) Emulating coupled atmosphereocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6-Part 1: Model description and calibration. Atmos Chem Phys 11(4):1417-1456.
102. Rasmussen DM, Kopp RE (2015) Appendix A. Physical climate projections. Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus, eds Houser T, Hsiang S, Kopp R, Larsen K (Columbia Univ Press, New York), pp 219-248.
103. Meinshausen M, et al. (2009) Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C. Nature 458(7242):1158-1162.
104. Rogelj J, Meinshausen M, Knutti R (2012) Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nat Clim Change 2: 248-253.
105. Collins M, et al. (2013) Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, eds Stocker TF, et al. (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK), pp 1029-1136.
106. Church J, White N (2011) Sea-level rise from the late 19th to the early 21st century. Surv Geophys 32(4):585-602.