Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

Canadian Water Resources Journal

Volumn 41, Issue 3, 2016, Pages 412-428

  Ryberg, Karen R ^a,b   Vecchia, Aldo V ^a   Akyüz, F Adnan ^b   Lin, Wei ^c  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^b NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c North Dakota State University   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; CLUSTER ANALYSIS; DISCRETE WAVELET TRANSFORMS; FORESTRY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RIVERS; TREES (MATHEMATICS); WATERSHEDS; WAVELET DECOMPOSITION; WAVELET TRANSFORMS;

ADDITIVE DECOMPOSITION; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; HISTORICAL CLIMATOLOGIES; MULTI RESOLUTION DECOMPOSITION; NATURAL VARIABILITY; PRECIPITATION DATA; SEASONAL PRECIPITATIONS; TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES;

CLIMATE MODELS;

EID: 84962339124     PISSN: 07011784     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/07011784.2016.1164627     Document Type: Article

References (82)

1. T.R.Ault, and S.S.GeorgeS. St. 2010. The magnitude of decadal and multidecadal variability in North American precipitation. Journal of Climate 23:842–850.
2. D.Blair, and W.F.Rannie. 1994. Wading to Pembina:1849 spring and summer weather in the Valley of the Red River of the North and some climatic implications. Great Plains Research 4:3–26.
3. T.S.Breusch, and A.R.Pagan. 1979. A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation. Econometrica 17:1287–1294.
4. G.R.Brooks, S.S.GeorgeS. St., C.F.M.Lewis, B.E.Medioli, E.Nielsen, S.Simpson, and L.H.Thorleifson. 2003. Geoscientific insights into Red River flood hazards in Manitoba:Open-File Report 4473, 36. Ottawa:Geological Survey of Canada.
5. A.G.Bunn, 2008. A dendrochronology program library in R (dplR). Dendrochronologia 26(2):115–124. doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2008.01.002.
6. A.G.Bunn, 2010. Statistical and visual crossdating in R using the dplR library. Dendrochronologia 28(4):251–258. doi:10.1016/j.dendro.2009.12.001.
7. A.G.Bunn, M.Korpela, F.Biondi, F.Campelo, P.Mérian, M.Mudelsee, F.Qeadan, M.Schulz, and C.Zang. 2014. dplR:Dendrochronology Program Library in R. R package version 1.6.0. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dplR (accessed July, 2014).
8. A.G.Bunn, T.J.Sharac, and L.J.Graumlich. 2004. Using a simulation model to compare methods of tree-ring detrending and to investigate the detectability of low-frequency signals. Tree-Ring Research 60(2):77–90. http://www.bioone.org/doi/full/10.3959/1536-1098-60.2.77.
9. U.Büntgen, W.Tegel, K.-U.Heussner, J.Hofmann, R.Kontic, T.Kyncl, and E.R.Cook. 2012. Effects of sample size in dendroclimatology. Climate Research 53:263–269.
10. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. 2014. Background:Long-term daily and monthly climate records from stations across the contiguous United States. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/background.html (accessed May, 2014).
11. W.J.Carlyle, 1984. Water in the Red River Valley of the North. Geographical Review 74(3):331–358.
12. R.A.Case, and G.M.MacDonald. 1995. A dendroclimatic reconstruction of annual precipitation on the western Canadian Prairies since AD 1505 from Pinus flexilis James. Quaternary Research 44:267–275.
13. R.A.Case, and G.M.MacDonald. 2003. Tree ring reconstructions of streamflow for three Canadian Prairie rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 39(3):703–716.
14. D.R.Cayan, M.D.Dettinger, H.F.Diaz, and N.E.Graham. 1998. Decadal variability of precipitation over western North America. Journal of Climate 11:3148–3166.
15. Commission for Environmental Cooperation. 1997. Ecological regions of North America – Toward a common perspective (revised 2006). Montreal:Commission for Environmental Cooperation, 71 pp. + map.
16. E.R.Cook, and L.A.Kairiukstis, ed. 1990. Methods of dendrochronology:Applications in the environmental sciences. Dordrecht, Netherlands:Springer. 394 pp.
17. J.Durbin, and G.S.Watson. 1950. Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression I. Biometrika 37:409–428.
18. J.Durbin, and G.S.Watson. 1951. Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression II. Biometrika 38:159–178.
19. J.Durbin, and G.S.Watson. 1971. Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression III. Biometrika 58:1–19.
20. Environment Canada. 2014. Adjusted and homogenized Canadian climate data (AHCCD). https://ec.gc.ca/dccha-ahccd/default.asp?lang=En&n=B1F8423A-1 (accessed July, 2014).
21. H.C.Fritts, 2001. Tree rings and climate. Caldwell, NJ:Blackburn Press, 567 pp.
22. H.C.Fritts, J.E.Mosimann, and C.P.Bottorff. 1969. A revised computer program for standardizing tree-ring series. Tree-Ring Bulletin 29:15–20.
23. J.D.Garbrecht, and F.E.Rossel. 2002. Decade-scale precipitation increase in Great Plains at end of 20th century. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 7(1):64–75.
24. C.Güler, G.D.Thyne, J.E.McCray, and K.A.Turner. 2002. Evaluation of graphical and multivariate statistical methods for classification of water chemistry data. Hydrogeology Journal 10:455–474.
25. S.S.Harrison, and J.P.Bluemle. 1980. Flooding in the Grand Forks-East Grand Forks area:Educational Series 12. Bismarck, ND:North Dakota Geological Survey, 66pp.
26. D.R.Helsel, and R.M.Hirsch. 1995. Statistical methods in water resources. Amsterdam, The Netherlands:Elsevier Science BV, 529 pp.
27. J.J.Higgins, 2004. Introduction to modern nonparametric statistics. Pacific Grove, CA:Brooks/Cole–Thomson Learning, 366 pp.
28. Q.Hu, C.M.Woodruff, and S.E.Mudrick. 1998. Interdecadal variations of annual precipitation in the central United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79(2):221–229.
29. I.Corporation, Insightful. 2001. S-PLUS 6 for Windows guide to statistics, vol. 2. Seattle, WA:Insightful Corporation, 622 pp.
30. International Souris River Board. 2013. Plan of study for the review of the operating plan contained in annex A of the 1989 international agreement between the government of Canada and the government of the United States:Task Force Report. Ottawa, Ontario and Washington, D.C.:International Joint Commission.
31. R.E.Kass, and A.E.Raftery. 1995. Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90(430):773–795.
32. L.Kaufman, and P.J.Rousseeuw. 1990. Finding groups in data – An introduction to cluster analysis. New York:Wiley, 368 pp.
33. S.L.Lapp, J.M.S.JaquesJ.-M. St., D.J.Sauchyn, and J.R.Vanstone. 2013. Forcing of hydroclimatic variability in the northwestern Great Plains since AD 1406. Quaternary International 310:47–61.
34. T.Lumley, using Fortran code by A.Miller. 2009. leaps:Regression subset selection. R package version 2.9. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=leaps (accessed July, 2014).
35. G.M.MacDonald, and R.A.Case. 2014. MacDonald – Boundary Bog – LALA – ITRDB CANA221. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo/f?p=519:1:::::P1_STUDY_ID:3899 (accessed July, 2014).
36. M.Maechler, P.Rousseeuw, A.Struyf, M.Hubert, and K.Hornik. 2014. cluster – Cluster analysis basics and extensions. R package version 1.15.2, https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/cluster/index.html (accessed July, 2014).
37. S.G.Mallat, 1989. A theory for multiresolution signal decomposition – The wavelet representation. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence 11(7):674–693.
38. S.D.Mamet, and G.P.Kershaw. 2011. Radial-growth response of forest-tundra tress to climate in the western Hudson Bay Lowlands. Arctic 64(4):446–458.
39. É.Mekis, and L.A.Vincent. 2011. An overview of the second generation adjusted daily precipitation dataset for trend analysis in Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean 49(2):163–177.
40. D.Meko, 1982. Drought history in the western Great Plains from tree rings. In Proceedings of the International Symposium of Hydrometeorology. ed. A.I.Johnson and R.A.Clark, Bethesda, MD:American Water Resources Association 321–326.
41. D.Meko, and C.H.Sieg. 2014a. Meko – Burning Coal Vein – PIPO – ITRDB ND001. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo/f?p=519:1:::::P1_STUDY_ID:3932 (accessed July, 2014).
42. D.Meko, and C.H.Sieg. 2014b. Meko – Theodore Roosevelt National Park – JUSC – ITRDB ND006. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo/f?p=519:1:::::P1_STUDY_ID:3969 (accessed July, 2014).
43. D.Meko, and C.H.Sieg. 2014c. Meko – Cedar Butte – PIPO – ITRDB SD004. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo/f?p=519:1:::::P1_STUDY_ID:3935 (accessed July, 2014).
44. M.J.Menne, C.N.Williams, Jr., and R.S.Vose. 2014. United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) Version 2.5 serial monthly dataset. National Climatic Data Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ushcn_v2.5_monthly/ (accessed May, 2014).
45. J.E.Miller, and D.L.Frink. 1984. Changes in flood response of the Red River of the North Basin, North Dakota–Minnesota:Water Supply Paper 2243. Reston, Virginia:United States Geological Survey, 103 pp., http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/wsp2243.
46. C.J.Mock, 1991. Drought and precipitation fluctuations in the Great Plains during the late nineteenth century. Great Plains Research 1:26–57.
47. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Observatory. 2013. A decade of water. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82266 (accessed January, 2014).
48. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climate Data Center (NCDC). 2014. Tree ring. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/tree-ring (accessed July, 2014).
49. J.Neter, M.H.Kutner, C.J.Nachtsheim, and W.Wasserman. 1996. Applied linear statistical models, 4th ed. Boston:WCB/McGraw–Hill, 1408 pp.
50. R Core Team. 2014. R – A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria:R Foundation for Statistical Computing, http://www.R-project.org/ (accessed May, 2014).
51. W.F.Rannie, 1998. A survey of hydroclimate, flooding, and runoff in the Red River Basin prior to 1870:Open-File Report 3705. Ottawa:Geological Survey of Canada, 189 pp.
52. S.Razavi, A.Elshorbagy, H.Wheater, and D.Sauchyn. 2015. Toward understanding nonstationarity in climate and hydrology through tree ring proxy records. Water Resources Research 51(3):1813–1830. doi:10.1002/2014WR015696.
53. S.Razavi, A.Elshorbagy, H.Wheater, and D.Sauchyn. 2016. Time scale effect and uncertainty in reconstruction of paleohydrology. Hydrological Processes. doi:10.1002/hyp.10754.
54. Red River Basin Board. 2000. Hydrology:Inventory Team report. Moorhead, MN:Red River Basin Board, 71 pp.
55. K.R.Ryberg, 2015. The impact of climate variability on streamflow and water quality in the North Central United States. PhD thesis, Fargo, North Dakota State University.
56. K.R.Ryberg, W.Lin, and A.V.Vecchia. 2014. Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 19(1):40–147. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000775.
57. K.R.Ryberg, K.M.Macek-Rowland, T.A.Banse, and G.J.Wiche. 2007. A history of flooding in the Red River Basin:General Information Product 55. Reston, Virginia:United States Geological Survey, 1 sheet, http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/2007/55/ (accessed July, 2014).
58. D.J.Sauchyn, and A.B.Beaudoin. 1998. Recent environmental change in the southwestern Canadian Plains. Canadian Geographer 42:337–353.
59. Service Assessment Team. 2012. The Missouri/Souris River floods of May–August 2011:Service Assessment. United States Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service, 68 p. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/Missouri_floods11.pdf (accessed January, 2015).
60. K.E.Severson, and C.H.Sieg. 2006. The nature of eastern North Dakota – Pre-1880 historical ecology. Fargo, ND:North Dakota Institute for Regional Studies, 308 pp.
61. M.D.Shapley, W.C.Johnson, D.R.Engstrom, and W.R.Osterkamp. 2005. Late-Holocene flooding and drought in the Northern Great Plains, USA, reconstructed from tree rings, lake sediments, and ancient shorelines. The Holocene 15:29–41.
62. C.H.Sieg, D.Meko, A.T.DeGaetano, and W.Ni. 1996. Dendroclimatic potential in the northern Great Plains. In Tree rings, environment and humanity:Proceedings of the international conference, ed. J.S.Dean, D.M.Meko, and T.W.Swetnam, Tucson, AZ:Radiocarbon, University of Arizona, 295–302.
63. D.Small, and S.Islam. 2008. Low frequency variability in fall precipitation across the United States. Water Resources Research 44:W04426, 13 pp.
64. D.Small, and S.Islam. 2009. A synoptic view of trends and decadal variations in autumn precipitation across the United States from 1948 to 2004. Journal of Geophysical Research 114:D10102, 14 pp.
65. S.St. George, and E.Nielsen. 2002. Hydroclimatic change in southern Manitoba since AD 1409 inferred from tree rings. Quaternary Research 58:103–111.
66. S.St. George, and E.Nielsen. 2003. Palaeoflood records for the Red River, Manitoba, Canada, derived from anatomical tree-ring signatures. The Holocene 13(4):547–555.
67. S.St. George, and W.Rannie. 2003. The causes, progression and magnitude of the 1826 Red River flood in Manitoba. Canadian Water Resources Journal 28(1):99–120.
68. D.W.Stockton, and D.M.Meko. 1983. Drought recurrence in the Great Plains reconstructed from long-term tree-ring records. Journal of Climate and Meteorology 22:17–29.
69. H.Thorleifson, G.Brooks, I.Hanuta, S.Kroker, G.Matile, E.Nielsen, C.Prévost, and W.Rannie. 1998. Red River flooding:Evolutionary geomorphic trends and evidence for major floods in recent centuries (NTS 62H/W):Report of activities. Winnipeg, Manitoba:Manitoba Energy and Mines, Geological Services, pp. 186–195
70. C.Torrence, and G.P.Compo. 1998. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79(1):61–78.
71. United States Geological Survey. 2014. Peak streamflow for North Dakota. http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/nd/nwis/peak/ (accessed December, 2014).
72. R.E.Vance, R.W.Mathewes, and J.J.Clague. 1992. 7,000-year record of lake-level change on the northern Great Plains:A high-resolution proxy of past climate. Geology 20:879–882.
73. A.V.Vecchia, 2008. Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008–40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota:Scientific investigations report 2008–5011. Reston, Virginia:United States Geological Survey, 28 pp., http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2008/5011/ (accessed August, 2014).
74. L.A.Vincent, X.L.Wang, E.J.Milewska, H.Wan, F.Yang, and V.Swail. 2012. A second generation of homogenized Canadian monthly surface air temperature for climate trend analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research 117:D18110. doi:10.1029/2012JD017859.
75. G.Voronoi, 1908. Nouvelles applications des paramètres continus à la théorie des formes quadratiques. Journal für die Reine und Angewandte Mathematik 133:97–178. doi:10.1515/crll.1908.133.97.
76. E.Watson, and B.H.Luckman. 2001. Dendroclimatic reconstruction of precipitation for sites in the southern Canadian Rockies. The Holocene 11:203–213.
77. J.J.Wettstein, J.S.Littell, J.M.Wallace, and Z.Gedalof. 2011. Coherent region-, species-, and frequency-dependent local climate signals in Northern Hemisphere tree-ring widths. Journal of Climate 24:5998–6012.
78. B.Whitcher, 2013. waveslim – Basic wavelet routines for one-, two- and three-dimensional signal processing. R package version 1.7.3. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=waveslim (accessed July, 2014).
79. T.M.L.Wigley, K.R.Briffa, and P.D.Jones. 1984. On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23:201–213.
80. D.J.Wishart, (ed.). 2004. Encyclopedia of the Great Plains, 940. Lincoln, NE:University of Nebraska Press.
81. S.Yang, X.Ding, D.Zheng, and Q.Li. 2007. Depiction of the variations of Great Plains precipitation and its relationship with Tropical Central-Eastern Pacific SST. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 46(2):136–153.
82. A.Zeileis, and T.Hothorn. 2002. Diagnostic checking in regression relationships. R News 2 (3):7–10.