Forcing of hydroclimatic variability in the northwestern Great Plains since AD 1406

Quaternary International

Volumn 310, Issue , 2013, Pages 47-61

  Lapp, Suzan L ^a   St Jacques, Jeannine Marie ^a   Sauchyn, David J ^a   Vanstone, Jessica R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF REGINA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE FORCING; CLIMATE VARIATION; DROUGHT STRESS; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HYDROMETEOROLOGY; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; PALEOCLIMATE; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD;

GREAT PLAINS; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH); PACIFIC OCEAN (TROPICAL);

EID: 84884412358     PISSN: 10406182     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2012.09.011     Document Type: Article

References (117)

1. Alley W.M. The Palmer Drought Severity Index, limitations and assumptions. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 1984, 23:1100-1109.
2. Ault T.R., St.George S. The magnitude of decadal and multidecadal variability in North American precipitation. Journal of Climate 2010, 23:842-850.
3. Axelson J.N., Sauchyn D.J., Barichivich J. New reconstructions of streamflow variability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin from a network of tree ring chronologies, Alberta, Canada. Water Resources Research 2009, 45:W09422.
4. Global Data Set of Derived Soil Properties, 0.5-Degree Grid (ISRIC-WISE). [Global Data Set of Derived Soil Properties, 0.5-Degree Grid (International Soil Reference and Information Centre - World Inventory of Soil Emission Potentials)] 2000, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, U.S.A, Data set. Available on-line:. http://www.daac.ornl.gov, N.H. Batjes (Ed.).
5. Biondi F., Gershunov A., Cayan D.R. North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. Journal of Climate 2001, 14:5-10.
6. Biondi F., Kozubowski T.J., Panorska A.K. Anew model for quantifying climate episodes. International Journal of Climate 2005, 25:1253-1264.
7. Bonsal B.R., Lawford R.G. Teleconnections between El Niño and La Niña events and summer extended dry spells on the Canadian Prairies. International Journal of Climatology 1999, 19:1445-1458.
8. Bonsal, B., Shabbar, A., 2011. Large-scale Climate Oscillations Influencing Canada, 1900-2008. Canadian Biodiversity: Ecosystem Status and Trends 2010, Technical Thematic Report No. 4. Canadian Councils of Resource Ministers, Ottawa, ON. iii+ 15 pp.
9. Bonsal B.R., Zhang X., Hogg W.D. Canadian Prairie growing season precipitation variability and associated atmospheric circulation. Climate Research 1999, 11:191-208.
10. Bonsal B.R., Shabbar A., Higuchi K. Impact of low frequency variability modes on Canadian winter temperature. International Journal of Climatology 2001, 21:95-108.
11. Bonsal B.R., Prowse T.D., Duguay C.R., Lacroix M.P. Impacts of large-scale teleconnections on freshwater-ice break/freeze-up dates over Canada. Journal of Hydrology 2006, 330:340-353.
12. Bonsal B.R., Wheaton E.E., Chipanshi A., Lin C., Sauchyn D.J., Wen L. Drought research in Canada, a review. Atmosphere-Ocean 2011, 4:303-319. 10.1080/07055900.2011.555103.
13. Briffa K., Jones P.D. Basic chronology statistics and assessment. Applications in the Environmental Science 1990, 137-152. Kluwer, Dordrecht. E.R. Cook, L. Kairiukstis (Eds.).
14. Case R.A., MacDonald G.M. Tree ring reconstructions of streamflow for three Canadian prairie rivers. Journal of American Water Resources Association 2003, 39:703-716.
15. Cayan D.R., Redmond K.T., Riddle L.G. ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the Western United States. Journal of Climate 1999, 12:2881-2893.
16. Chao Y., Ghil M., McWilliams J.C. Pacific interdecadal variability in this century's sea surface temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters 2000, 27:2261-2264.
17. Collins M., Osborn T.J., Tett S., Briffa K.R., Schweingruber F.H. Acomparison of the variability of a climate model with paleotemperature estimates from a network of tree-ring densities. Journal of Climate 2002, 15:1497-1515.
18. Cook, E.R., 1985. A Time Series Analysis Approach to Tree-ring Standardization. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Arizona, Tuscon.
19. Cook E.R. El Nino 3 index reconstruction. International Tree-Ring Data Bank, IGBP PAGES/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series 2000.
20. Methods of Dendrochronology, Applications in the Environmental Sciences 1990, 98-105. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. E.R. Cook, L.A. Kairiukstis (Eds.).
21. Cook E.R., D'Arrigo R., Mann M.E. Awell-verified, multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index since A.D. 1400. Journal of Climate 2002, 15:1754-1764.
22. Cook E.R., Woodhouse C.A., Eakin C.M., Meko D.M., Stahle D.W. Long-term aridity changes in the western United States. Science 2004, 306:1015-1018.
23. Cook E.R., Seager R., Cane M.A., Stahle D.W. North American drought, reconstructions, causes, and consequences. Earth Science Reviews 2007, 81:93-134.
24. Cook E.R., D'Arrigo R., Anchukaitis K.J. ENSO reconstructions from long tree-ring chronologies, unifying the differences. Talk Presented at a Special Workshop on Reconciling ENSO Chronologies for the Past 500 Years, Held in Moorea, French Polynesia on 2-3 April 2008 2008.
25. D'Arrigo R., Wilson R. On the Asian expression of the PDO. International Journal of Climatology 2006, 26:1607-1617.
26. D'Arrigo R., Villalba R., Wiles G. Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability. Climate Dynamics 2001, 18:219-224.
27. Dawdy D.R., Matalas N.C. Statistical and probability analysis of hydrologic data, part III, Analysis of variance, covariance and time series. Handbook of Applied Hydrology, a Compendium of Water-resources Technology 1964, 8.68-8.90. McGraw-Hill Book Company, New York. V. Te Chow (Ed.).
28. Diaz H.F., Hoerling M.P., Eischeid J.K. ENSO variability, teleconnections and climate change. International Journal of Climatology 2001, 21:1845-1862.
29. Dracup J.A., Lee K.S., Paulson E.G. On the statistical characteristics of drought events. Water Resources Research 1980, 16:289-296.
30. Edwards T.W.D., Birks S.J., Luckman B.H., MacDonald G.M. Climatic and hydrologic variability during the past millennium in the eastern Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains of western Canada. Quaternary Research 2008, 70:188-197.
31. Fritts H.C. Tree Rings and Climate 1976, Academic Press, New York.
32. Fye F.K., Stahle D.W., Cook E.R. Paleoclimatic analogs to twentieth-century moisture regimes across the United States. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2003, 84:901-909.
33. Gan T.Y., Gobena A.K., Wang Q. Precipitation of southwestern Canada, wavelet, scaling, multifractal analysis, and teleconnection to climate anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research 2007, 112. 10.1029/2006JD007157.
34. Garnett E.R., Nirupama N., Haque C.E., Murty T.S. Correlates of Canadian Prairie summer rainfall, implications for crop yields. Climate Research 2006, 32:25-33.
35. Gedalof Z., Smith D.J. Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America. Geophysical Research Letters 2001, 28:1515-1518.
36. Gedalof Z., Mantua N.J., Peterson D.L. Amulti-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, new insights from tree rings and coral. Geophysical Research Letters 2002, 29:57.1-57.4.
37. Gershunov A., Barnett T.P. Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1998, 79:2715-2725.
38. Ghil M., Allen R.M., Dettinger M.D., Ide K., Kondrashov D., Mann M.E., Robertson A., Saunders A., Tian Y., Varadi F., Yiou P. Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series. Review of Geophysics 2002, 40:3.1-3.41.
39. Girardin M.P., Sauchyn D.J. Three centuries of annual area burned variability in northwestern North America inferred from tree rings. Holocene 2008, 18:205-214.
40. Girardin M.P., Tardif J.C., Flannigan M.D., Bergeron Y. Synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation and boreal Canada summer drought variability of the past three centuries. Journal of Climate 2006, 19:1922-1947.
41. Gray S.T., Betancourt J.L., Jackson S.T., Eddy R.G. Role of multidecadal climate variability in a range extension of pinyon pine. Ecology 2006, 87:1124-1130.
42. Grinsted A., Moore J.C., Jevrejeva S. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 2004, 11:561-566.
43. Guttmann N.B. Comparing the Palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index. Journal of American Water Resources Association 1998, 34:113-121.
44. Hamlet A.F., Mote P.W., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P. Twentieth-century trends in runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture in the Western United States. Journal of Climate 2007, 20:1468-1486.
45. Herweijer C., Seager R., Cook E.R. North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century, history, simulation and implications for Medieval drought. Holocene 2006, 16:159-171.
46. Hughes M.K. Dendrochronology in climatology - the state of the art. Dendrochronologia 2002, 20:95-116.
47. Hurrell J.W., Deser C. North Atlantic climate variability, the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Marine Systems 2009, 78:28-41.
48. IPCC4 Climate Change 2007, the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Avery, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
49. Kalnay E., Kanamitsu M., Kistler R., Collins W., Deaven D., Gandin L., Iredell M., Saha S., White G., Woollen J., Zhu Y., Leetmaa A., Reynolds R., Chelliah M., Ebisuzaki W., Higgins W., Janowiak J., Mo K.C., Ropelewski C., Wang J., Jenne R., Joseph D. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1996, 77:437-471.
50. Kharin V.V., Zwiers F.W., Zhang X., Hegerl G.C. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. Journal of Climate 2007, 20:1419-1444.
51. Kiem A.S., Verdon-Kidd D.C. Steps towards 'useful' hydroclimatic scenarios for water resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin. Water Resources Research 2011, 47:W00G06. 10.1029/2010WR009803.
52. Kiem A.S., Franks S.W., Kuczera G. Multi-decadal variability of flood risk. Geophysical Research Letters 2003, 30:1035. 10.1029/2002GL015992.
53. Kim K.W., North G.R. EOF analysis of surface temperature field in a stochastic noise model. Journal of Climate 1993, 6:1681-1690.
54. Keyantash J., Dracup J.A. The quantification of drought, an analysis of drought indices. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2002, 83:1167-1180.
55. Knox J.L., Lawford R.G. The relationship between Canadian Prairie dry and wet months and circulation anomalies in the mid-troposphere. Atmosphere-Ocean 1990, 28:189-215.
56. Lapp S.L., St.Jacques J.M., Barrow E.M., Sauchyn D.J. GCM projections for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation under greenhouse forcing for the early 21st century. International Journal of Climatology 2012, 32:1423-1442. 10.1002/joc.2364.
57. Lau N.C. Interactions between global SST anomalies and the midlatitude atmospheric circulation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1997, 78:21-33.
58. Luckman B.H., Wilson R.J.S. Summer temperature in the Canadian Rockies during the last millennium, a revised record. Climate Dynamics 2005, 24:131-144.
59. Lui J., Stewart R.E., Szeto K.K. Moisture transport and other hydrometeorological features associated with the severe 2000/01 drought over the Western and Central Canadian prairies. Journal of Climate 2004, 17:305-319.
60. MacDonald G.M., Case R.A. Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium. Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 32. 10.1029/2005GL022478.
61. Mann M.E., Lees J.M. Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series. Climatic Change 1996, 33:409-445.
62. Mann M.E., Bradley R.S., Hughes M.K. Multi-scale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts, Chap. Long-term Variability in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and Associated Teleconnections 2000, Cambridge University Press, 357-412.
63. Mantua N.J., Hare S.R. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Journal of Oceanography 2002, 58:35-44.
64. Mantua N.J., Hare S.R., Zhang Y., Wallace J.M., Francis R.C. APacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1997, 78:1069-1079.
65. Marchildon G.P., Kulshreshtha S., Wheaton E., Sauchyn D. Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914-1939. Natural Hazards 2008, 3:391-411.
66. McGregor S., Timmerman A., Timm O.A. Unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650. Climate of the Past 2010, 6:1-17.
67. McKenney D.W., Pedlar J.H., Papadopol P., Hutchinson M.F. The development of 1901-2000 historical monthly climate models for Canada and the United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2006, 138:69-81.
68. Meko D., Stockton C.W., Boggess W.R. The tree-ring record of severe sustained drought. Water Resources Bulletin 1995, 31:789-801.
69. Meko D.M., Woodhouse C.A., Baisan C.A., Knight T., Lukas J.J., Hughes M.K., Salzer M.W. Medieval drought in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Geophysical Research Letters 2007, 34. 10.1029/2007GL029988.
70. Minobe S. A50-70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophysical Research Letters 1997, 24:683-686.
71. Minobe S. Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific, role in climatic regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters 1999, 26. 10.1029/1999GL900119.
72. Newton A., Thunell R., Stott L. Climate and hydrographic variability in the Indo-Pacific warm pool during the last millenium. Geophysical Research Letters 2006, 33. 10.1029/2006GL027234.
73. Nyenzi B., Lefale P.F. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and global warming. Advances in Geosciences 2006, 6:95-101.
74. Overland J.E., Wang M. Future climate of the North Pacific Ocean. EOS 2007, 88:178-182.
75. Palmer W.C. Meteorological Drought 1965, Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington, D.C, Research Paper No. 45, U.S.
76. Pederson G.T., Gray S.T., Woodhouse C.A., Betancourt J.L., Fagre D.B., Littell J.S., Watson E., Luckman B.H., Graumlich L.J. The unusual nature of recent snowpack declines in the North American Cordillera. Science 2011, 333:332-335.
77. Peterson D.W., Peterson D.L. Mountain hemlock growth responds to climatic variability at annual and decadal time scales. Ecology 2001, 82:3330-3345.
78. Pham S.V., Leavitt P.R., McGowan S., Wissel B., Wassenaar L.I. Spatial and temporal variability of prairie lake hydrology as revealed using stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen. Limnology and Oceanography 2009, 54:101-118.
79. Pomeroy J.W., de Boer D., Martz L.W. Hydrology and Water Resources of Saskatchewan 2005, Centre for Hydrology Report #1, University of Saskatchewan. http://www.usask.ca/hydrology/reports/CHRpt01_Hydrology-Water-Resources-Sask_Feb05.pdf.
80. Pomeroy J.W., de Boer D., Martz L.W. Hydrology and water resources. Saskatchewan: Geographic Perspectives 2007, 63-80. Canadian Plains Research Centre, Regina. B. Thraves, M.L. Lewry, J.E. Dale, H. Schlichtmann (Eds.).
81. Rasmussen E.M., Carpenter T.H. Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Monthly Weather Review 1982, 110:354-384.
82. Redmond K.T., Koch R.W. Surface climate and streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices. Water Resources Research 1991, 9:2381-2399.
83. Renwick J.A., Wallace J.M. Relationships between North Pacific wintertime blocking, El Niño, and the PNA pattern. Monthly Weather Review 1996, 124:2071-2076.
84. Sachs J.P., Sachse D., Smittenberg R.H., Zhang Z., Battisti D.S., Golubic S. Southward movement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone AD 1400-1850. Nature Geoscience 2009, 2:519-525.
85. Sauchyn D.J., Beaudoin A.B. Recent environmental change in the southwestern Canadian Plains. Canadian Geographer 1998, 42:337-353.
86. Sauchyn D.J., Skinner W.R. Aproxy PDSI record for the southwestern Canadian Plains. Canadian Water Resources Journal 2001, 26:253-272.
87. Sauchyn D.J., Stroich J., Beriault A. Apaleoclimatic context for the drought of 1999-2001 in the northern Great Plains. Geographical Journal 2003, 169:158-167.
88. Sauchyn D., Vanstone J., Perez-Valdivia C. Modes and forcing of hydroclimatic variability in the upper North Saskatchewan River Basin since 1063. Canadian Water Resources Journal 2011, 36:205-218.
89. Seager R. The turn of the century drought across North America, global context, dynamics and past analogues. Journal of Climate 2007, 20:5527-5552.
90. Shabbar A. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the Canadian climate. Advances in Geosciences 2006, 6:149-153.
91. Shabbar A., Bonsal B., Khandekar M.L. Canadian precipitation patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation. Journal of Climate 1997, 10:3016-3027.
92. Speer J. Fundamentals of Tree-ring Research 2010, University of Arizona Press, Tuscon, Arizona, USA.
93. Stokes M.A., Smiley T.L. An Introduction to Tree-ring Dating 1968, University Arizona Press, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
94. St.George S., Nielsen E. Hydroclimatic change in southern Manitoba since A.D. 1409 inferred from tree rings. Quaternary Research 2002, 58:103-111.
95. St.George S., Meko D.M., Girardin M.P., MacDonald G.M., Nielsen E., Pederson G.T., Sauchyn D.J., Tardif J.C., Watson E. The tree-ring record of drought on the Canadian Prairies. Journal of Climate 2009, 22:689-710.
96. St.George S., Meko D.M., Cook E.R. The seasonality of precipitation signals embedded within the North American Drought Atlas. Holocene 2010, 20. 10.1177/0959683610365937.
97. St.Jacques J.M., Sauchyn D.J., Zhao Y. Northern Rocky Mountain streamflow records, global warming trends, human impacts or natural variability?. Geophysical Research Letters 2010, 37. 10.1029/2009GL042045.
98. St.Jacques J.M., Lapp S.L., Zhao Y., Barrow E., Sauchyn D.J. Twenty-first century northern Rocky Mountain river discharge scenarios under greenhouseforcing. Quaternary International 2013, 310:34-46. 10.1016/j.quaint.2012.06.023.
99. Sun D.-Z. Apossible effect of an increase in the warm-pool SST on the magnitude of El Niño warming. Journal of Climate 2003, 16:185-205.
100. Thomson D.J. Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis. Proceedings IEEE 1982, 70:1055-1096.
101. Trenberth K.E. Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the northern hemisphere. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1990, 71:988-993.
102. Trenberth K.E. The definition of El Niño. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 1997, 78:2771-2777.
103. Trenberth K.E., Hurrell J.W. Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific. Climate Dynamics 1994, 9:303-319.
104. Trenberth K.E., Stepaniak D.P. Indices of El Niño evolution. Journal of Climate 2001, 14:1697-1701.
105. Vanstone J.R., Sauchyn D.J. Q.macrocarpa annual, early- and late-wood widths as hydroclimatic proxies, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada. IOP Conference Series, Earth and Environmental Science 2010, 9.
106. Verdon D.C., Franks S.W. Long-term behavior of ENSO, interactions with the PDO over the past 400 years inferred from paleoclimate records. Geophysical Research Letters 2006, 33. 10.1029/2005GL025052.
107. Verdon-Kidd D.C., Kiem A.S. Quantifying drought risk in a nonstationary climate. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2010, 11:1019-1031.
108. Wallace J.M., Gutzler D.S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Monthly Weather Review 1981, 109:784-812.
109. Watson E., Luckman B.H. Tree-ring based reconstructions of precipitation for the southern Canadian Cordillera. Climatic Change 2004, 65:209-241.
110. Watson E., Luckman B.H. Spatial patterns of preinstrumental moisture variability in the southern Canadian Cordillera. Journal of Climate 2005, 18:2847-2863.
111. Watson E., Luckman B.H. An exploration of the controls of pre-instrumental streamflow using multiple tree-ring proxies. Dendrochronologia 2005, 22:225-234.
112. Wheaton, E., Wittrock, V., Kulshreshtha, S., Koshida, G., Grant, C., Chipanshi, A., Bonsal, B.R., 2005. Lessons Learned from the Canadian Drought Years of 2001 and 2002, Synthesis Report, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Saskatchewan Research Council Publication No. 11602-11646E03, Saskatoon, SK.
113. Wise E.K. Spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation dipole transition zone in the western United States. Geophysical Research Letters 2010, 37. 10.1029/2009GL042193.
114. Woodhouse C.A. Winter climate and atmospheric circulation patterns in the Sonoran Desert region, USA. International Journal of Climatology 1997, 17:859-873.
115. Woodhouse C.A., Stahle D.W., Villanueva Diaz J. Rio Grande and Rio Conchos water supply variability over the past 500 years. Climate Research 2012, 51:125-136.
116. Yu B., Zwiers F.W. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate, a 1,000-year climate modeling study. Climate Dynamics 2007, 29:837-851.
117. Zhang Y., Wallace J.M., Battisti D.S. ENSO-like interdecadal variability, 1900-1993. Journal of Climate 1997, 10:1004-1020.