The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 8, Issue 2, 2013, Pages

  Wilcox, L J ^a,b   Highwood, E J ^b   Dunstone, N J ^c  

^a University of Birmingham   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^c MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

anthropogenic aerosol; decadal; temperature hiatus

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION;

AEROSOL-CLOUD INTERACTION; ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOLS; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; DECADAL; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; INTER-DECADAL VARIABILITY; NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES;

AEROSOLS;

AEROSOL; ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCE; ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION; CLIMATE VARIATION; COOLING; DECADAL VARIATION; GLOBAL CLIMATE; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CHEMISTRY); TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

EID: 84880874790     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024033     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Balan Sarojini B, Stott P A, Black E and Polson D 2012 Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21706
2. Bellouin N, Boucher O, Haywood J, Johnson C, Jones A, Rae J and Woodward S 2007 Improved representation of aerosols for HadGEM2 Hadley Centre Technical Note 73 (Exeter: Met Office)
3. Booth B B, Dunstone N J, Halloran P R, Andrews T and Bellouin N 2012 Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability Nature 484 228-32
4. Chalmers N, Highwood E, Hawkins E, Sutton R and Wilcox L 2012 Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L18709
5. Chang C, Chiang J, Wehner M, Friedman A and Ruedy R 2011 Sulfate aerosol control of tropical Atlantic climate over the twentieth century J. Clim. 24 2540-55
6. Collins W, Rasch P, Boville B, Hack J, McCaa J, Williamson D, Briegleb B, Bitz C, Lin S and Zhang M 2006 The formulation and atmospheric simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) J. Clim. 19 2144-61
7. Collins W et al 2011 Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model - HadGEM2 Geosci. Model Dev. 4 1051-75
8. Donner L et al 2011 The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3 J. Clim. 24 3484-519
9. Duffy D 2004 The application of Hilbert-Huang transforms to meteorological datasets J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 21 599-611
10. Dufresne J et al 2013 Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 Clim. Dyn. 40 2123-65
11. Dunne J et al 2012 GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics J. Clim. 25 6646-65
12. Franzke C 2009 Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis Nonlinear Process. Geophys. 16 65-76
13. Harris I, Jones P, Osborn T and Lister D 2013 Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations the CRU TS3.10 data set Int. J. Climatol. at press (doi:10.1002/joc.3711)
14. Hazeleger W et al 2012 EC-Earth v2. 2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model Clim. Dyn. 39 2611-29
15. Holben B et al 2001 An emerging ground-based aerosol climatology: aerosol optical depth from AERONET J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. 106 12067-97
16. Hsu N, Gautam R, Sayer A, Bettenhausen C, Li C, Jeong M, Tsay S and Holben B 2012 Global and regional trends of aerosol optical depth over land and ocean using SeaWiFS measurements from 1997 to 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 12 8465-501
17. Huang N et al 2008 A review on Hilbert-Huang transform: method and its applications to geophysical studies Rev. Geophys. 46 1-23
18. Huang N E, Shen Z, Long S R, Wu M C, Shih H H, Zheng Q, Yen N C, Tung C C and Liu H H 1998 The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and non-stationary time series analysis Proc. R. Soc. A 454 903-95
19. Hunt B 2011 The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend Clim. Dyn. 36 509-21
20. Iversen T et al 2012 The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M - part 2: climate response and scenario projections Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 5 2933-98
21. Ji D 2013 personal communication
22. Johns T et al 2011 Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment Clim. Dyn. 37 1975-2003
23. Kaufmann R, Kauppi H, Mann M and Stock J 2011 Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 108 11790-3
24. Kinne S, O'Donnell D, Stier P, Kloster S, Zhang K, Schmidt H, Rast S, Giorgetta M, Eck T and Stevens B 2013 A new global aerosol climatology for climate studies J. Adv. Modelling Earth Syst. submitted
25. Kloster S, Dentener F, Feichter J, Raes F, Lohmann U, Roeckner E and Fischer-Bruns I 2010 A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions Clim. Dyn. 34 1177-94
26. Lamarque J et al 2010 Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 7017-39
27. Lee T and Ouarda T 2011 Prediction of climate nonstationary oscillation processes with empirical mode decomposition J. Geophys. Res. 116 D06107
28. Levy H, Horowitz L, Daniel Schwarzkopf M, Ming Y, Golaz J, Naik V and Ramaswamy V 2013 The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change J. Geophys. Res. - Atmos. at press (doi:10.1002/jgrd. 50192)
29. McDonald A et al 2007 Empirical mode decomposition of the atmospheric wave field Ann. Geophys. 25 375-84
30. Meehl G, Arblaster J, Fasullo J, Hu A and Trenberth K 2011 Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods Nature Clim. Change 1 360-4
31. Meehl G, Washington W, Arblaster J, Hu A, Teng H and Tebaldi C 2012 Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4 J. Clim. 25 3661-83
32. Meehl G, Washington W, Santer B, Collins W, Arblaster J, Hu A, Lawrence D, Teng H, Buja L and Strand W 2006 Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3 J. Clim. 19 2597-616
33. Mishchenko M I, Liu L, Geogdzhayev I V, Li J, Carlson B E, Lacis A A, Cairns B and Travis L D 2012 Aerosol retrievals from channel-1 and-2 AVHRR radiances: long-term trends updated and revisited J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer 113 1974-80
34. Morice C, Kennedy J, Rayner N and Jones P 2012 Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 data set J. Geophys. Res. 117 D08101
35. Penner J et al 2006 Model intercomparison of indirect aerosol effects Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6 3391-405
36. Rotstayn L, Jeffrey S, Collier M, Dravitzki S, Hirst A, Syktus J and Wong K 2012 Aerosol- and greenhouse gas-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12 6377-404
37. Shindell D, Voulgarakis A, Faluvegi G and Milly G 2012 Precipitation response to regional radiative forcing Atmos. Chem. Phys. 12 6969-82
38. Song Z 2013 personal communication
39. Stevens B et al 2013 The atmospheric component of the MPI-M earth system model: ECHAM6 J. Adv. Modelling Earth Syst. at press (doi:10.1002/jame.20015)
40. Stott P, Mitchell J, Allen M, Delworth T, Gregory J, Meehl G and Santer B 2006 Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming J. Clim. 19 3055-69
41. Strand G 2013 personal communication
42. Szopa S et al 2013 Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100 Clim. Dyn. 40 2223-50
43. Tett S et al 2002 Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to twentieth century temperature change J. Geophys. Res. 107 4306
44. Thompson D, Wallace J, Kennedy J and Jones P 2010 An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970 Nature 467 444-7
45. Voldoire A et al 2012 The CNRM-CM5. 1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation Clim. Dyn. 40 2091-121
46. Volodin E 2013 personal communication
47. von Salzen K et al 2013 The Canadian fourth generation atmospheric global climate model (CanAM4). Part I: representation of physical processes Atmos.-Ocean 51 104-25
48. Watanabe M et al 2010 Improved climate simulation by MIROC5: mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity J. Clim. 23 6312-35
49. Watanabe S et al 2011 MIROC-ESM: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 4 1063-128
50. Wu T, Yu R, Zhang F, Wang Z, Dong M, Wang L, Jin X, Chen D and Li L 2010 The Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model: description and its performance for the present-day climate Clim. Dyn. 34 123-47
51. Wu Z, Huang N, Long S and Peng C 2007 On the trend, detrending, and variability of nonlinear and nonstationary time series Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 104 14889-94
52. Wu Z and Norden E 2009 Ensemble empirical mode decomposition: a noise-assisted data analysis method Adv. Adapt. Data Anal. 1 1-41
53. Yukimoto S 2013 personal communication
54. Yukimoto S, Adachi Y and Hosaka M 2012 A new global climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3: model description and basic performance (special issue on recent development on climate models and future climate projections) J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 90 23-64
55. Zhang R et al 2013 Have aerosols caused the observed atlantic multidecadal variability? J. Atmos. Sci. 70 1135-44