A temporal kernel method to compute effective radiative forcing in CMIP5 transient simulations

Journal of Climate

Volumn 29, Issue 4, 2016, Pages 1497-1509

  Larson, Erik J L ^a,b   Portmann, Robert W ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC RADIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; GREENHOUSE GASES; SURFACE PROPERTIES; VOLCANOES;

COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; ENERGY BALANCE METHOD; GLOBAL MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE; RADIATIVE FORCINGS; TEMPERATURE CHANGES; TOP OF THE ATMOSPHERES; TRANSIENT SIMULATION; VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; RADIATIVE FORCING; TEMPORAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 84959499752     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0577.1     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Allan, R. P., C. Liu, N. G. Loeb, and M. D. Palmer, 2014: Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5588-5597, doi:10.1002/2014GL060962.
2. Andrews, T., J. M. Gregory, M. J. Webb, and K. E. Taylor, 2012: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, doi:10.1029/2012GL051607.
3. Boucher, O., and Coauthors, 2013: Clouds and aerosols. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 571-657. [Available online at https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter07_FINAL.pdf.]
4. Forster, P. M., and K. E. Taylor, 2006: Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from coupled climate model integrations. J. Climate, 19, 6181-6194, doi:10.1175/JCLI3974.1.
5. Forster, P. M., and K. E. Taylor, T. Andrews, P. Good, J. M. Gregory, L. S. Jackson, and M. Zelinka, 2013: Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 1139-1150, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50174.
6. Good, P., J. M. Gregory, and J. A. Lowe, 2011: A step-response simple climate model to reconstruct and interpret AOGCM projections. Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L01703, doi:10.1029/2010GL045208.
7. Good, P., J. M. Gregory, and J. A. Lowe, and T. Andrews, 2013: Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections. Climate Dyn., 40, 1041-1053, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1410-4.
8. Gregory, J.M., and Coauthors, 2004:Anew method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L03205, doi:10.1029/2003GL018747.
9. Gupta, A. S., N. C. Jourdain, J. N. Brown, and D. Monselesan, 2013: Climate drift in the CMIP5 models. J. Climate, 26, 8597-8615, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00521.1.
10. Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1997: Radiative forcing and climate response. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6831-6864, doi:10.1029/96JD03436.
11. Hansen, J., and Coauthors, 2002: Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
12. Hansen, J., and Coauthors, 2005: Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.
13. IPCC, 1990: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, 410 pp.
14. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 1535 pp., doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
15. Meinshausen, M., and Coauthors, 2011: The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109, 213-241, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z.
16. Murphy, D. M., S. Solomon, R. W. Portmann, K. H. Rosenlof, P. M. Forster, and T. Wong, 2009: An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D17107, doi:10.1029/2009JD012105.
17. Myhre, G., and Coauthors, 2013: Anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 659-740.
18. Sato, M., J. E. Hansen, M. P. McCormick, and J. B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990. J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22 987-22 994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553.
19. Senior, C. A., and J. F. B. Mitchell, 2000: The time-dependence of climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2685-2688, doi:10.1029/2000GL011373.
20. Shell, K. M., J. T. Kiehl, and C. A. Shields, 2008: Using the radiative kernel technique to calculate climate feedbacks in NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model. J. Climate, 21, 2269-2282, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2044.1.
21. Shine, K. P., 2003: An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2047, doi:10.1029/2003GL018141.
22. Smith, D. M., R. P. Allan, and A. C. Coward, 2015: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1205-1213, doi:10.1002/2014GL062669.
23. Soden, B. J., I. M. Held, R. Colman, K. M. Shell, J. T. Kiehl, and C. A. Shields, 2008: Quantifying climate feedbacks using radiative kernels. J. Climate, 21, 3504-3520, doi:10.1175/2007JCLI2110.1.
24. Solomon, S., K. H. Rosenlof, R. W. Portmann, J. S. Daniel, S. M. Davis, T. J. Sanford, and G.-K. Plattner, 2010: Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming. Science, 327, 1219-1223, doi:10.1126/science.1182488.
25. Solomon, S., J. S. Daniel, R. R. Neely, J.-P. Vernier, E. G. Dutton, and L.W. Thomason, 2011: The persistently variable ''background'' stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science, 333, 866-870, doi:10.1126/science.1206027.
26. Taylor, K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and G. A. Meehl, 2012: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1.
27. Trenberth, K. E., and J. T. Fasullo, 2013: An apparent hiatus in global warming? Earth's Future, 1, 19-32, doi:10.1002/2013EF000165.
28. Williams, K. D., W. J. Ingram, and J. M. Gregory, 2008: Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in GCMs. J. Climate, 21, 5076-5090, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2371.1.
29. Zhang, M., and Y. Huang, 2014: Radiative forcing of quadrupling CO2. J. Climate, 27, 2496-2508, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00535.1.