메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 77, Issue , 2016, Pages 56-66

The critical role of history in scenario thinking: Augmenting causal analysis within the intuitive logics scenario development methodology

Author keywords

Causation; History; Learning; Scenario planning

Indexed keywords

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; FUTURE PROSPECT; GUIDELINE; HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE; LEARNING; PLANNING METHOD;

EID: 84959387769     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2016.02.002     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (49)

References (43)
  • 1
    • 34247780311 scopus 로고
    • The dynamics of volunteer participation in futures research
    • Athey T.R. The dynamics of volunteer participation in futures research. Futures 1987, 19(2):168-183.
    • (1987) Futures , vol.19 , Issue.2 , pp. 168-183
    • Athey, T.R.1
  • 2
    • 84977867087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The science of making decisions. tech & science newsweek
    • Begley S. The science of making decisions. tech & science newsweek. 27/2/ 2011, 11.
    • (2011) 27/2/ , pp. 11
    • Begley, S.1
  • 3
    • 47149101976 scopus 로고
    • Applied metaphysics: truth and passing time
    • Brumbaugh R.S. Applied metaphysics: truth and passing time. The Review of Metaphysics 1966, 19:647-666.
    • (1966) The Review of Metaphysics , vol.19 , pp. 647-666
    • Brumbaugh, R.S.1
  • 4
    • 84885025830 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Drivers and outcomes of scenario planning: a canonical correlation analysis
    • Chermack T.J., Nimon K. Drivers and outcomes of scenario planning: a canonical correlation analysis. European Journal of Training and Development 2013, 37(9):811-834. 10.1108/EJTD-03-2013-0030.
    • (2013) European Journal of Training and Development , vol.37 , Issue.9 , pp. 811-834
    • Chermack, T.J.1    Nimon, K.2
  • 5
    • 58149271025 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of scenario planning on participant decision-making style
    • Chermack T.J., Nimon K. The effects of scenario planning on participant decision-making style. Human Resource Development Quarterly 2008, 19(4):351-372.
    • (2008) Human Resource Development Quarterly , vol.19 , Issue.4 , pp. 351-372
    • Chermack, T.J.1    Nimon, K.2
  • 6
    • 1642428816 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The mandate for theory in scenario planning
    • Chermack T. The mandate for theory in scenario planning. Futures Research Quarterly 2002, 18(2):25-28.
    • (2002) Futures Research Quarterly , vol.18 , Issue.2 , pp. 25-28
    • Chermack, T.1
  • 10
    • 33645647844 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why smart executives fail: four case histories of how people learnt the wrong history from history
    • Finkelstein S. Why smart executives fail: four case histories of how people learnt the wrong history from history. Business History 2006, 48(April (2)):153-170.
    • (2006) Business History , vol.48 , Issue.April 2 , pp. 153-170
    • Finkelstein, S.1
  • 11
    • 0041572359 scopus 로고
    • Integration of scenarios and strategic management: using relevant, Consistent and Likely Scenarios
    • Godet M. Integration of scenarios and strategic management: using relevant, Consistent and Likely Scenarios. Futures 1990, 22(7):730-739.
    • (1990) Futures , vol.22 , Issue.7 , pp. 730-739
    • Godet, M.1
  • 13
    • 0035217380 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning: a role for decision analysis
    • Goodwin P., Wright G. Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning: a role for decision analysis. Journal of Management Studies 2001, 38(1):1-16.
    • (2001) Journal of Management Studies , vol.38 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-16
    • Goodwin, P.1    Wright, G.2
  • 17
    • 33846632370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of strategy workshops in strategy development processes: formality, communication, co-ordination and inclusion
    • Hodgkinson G.P., Whittington R., Johnson G., Schwarz M. The role of strategy workshops in strategy development processes: formality, communication, co-ordination and inclusion. Long Range Planning 2006, 20:479-496.
    • (2006) Long Range Planning , vol.20 , pp. 479-496
    • Hodgkinson, G.P.1    Whittington, R.2    Johnson, G.3    Schwarz, M.4
  • 18
    • 39749124882 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards a (pragmatic) science of strategic intervention: design propositions for scenario planning
    • Hodgkinson G.P., Healey M.P. Towards a (pragmatic) science of strategic intervention: design propositions for scenario planning. Organisation Studies 2008, 20(03):435-457.
    • (2008) Organisation Studies , vol.20 , Issue.3 , pp. 435-457
    • Hodgkinson, G.P.1    Healey, M.P.2
  • 19
    • 84977831562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NSA chief says Snowden leaked up to 200,000 secret documents
    • Hosenball M. NSA chief says Snowden leaked up to 200,000 secret documents. Reuters 2013, (November). http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/14/us-usa-security-nsa-idUSBRE9AD19B20131114.
    • (2013) Reuters , Issue.November
    • Hosenball, M.1
  • 22
    • 20444471947 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution
    • Summer
    • Martelli A. Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution. Futures Research Quarterly 2001, Summer.
    • (2001) Futures Research Quarterly
    • Martelli, A.1
  • 24
    • 84976590254 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Futures studies, Scenarios, and the possibility-space approach
    • OECD Publication, 7/4/2006
    • Miller R. Futures studies, Scenarios, and the possibility-space approach. Think scenarios, rethink education 2006, OECD Publication, 7/4/2006.
    • (2006) Think scenarios, rethink education
    • Miller, R.1
  • 25
  • 27
    • 84959402850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • History: the meaning and role of history in human development, theme 4.3
    • UNESCO/EOLSS Publishers, Oxford, UK
    • Nasson W. History: the meaning and role of history in human development, theme 4.3. The UNESCO encyclopaedia of life support systems 2004, UNESCO/EOLSS Publishers, Oxford, UK.
    • (2004) The UNESCO encyclopaedia of life support systems
    • Nasson, W.1
  • 28
    • 0012116189 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies
    • Phelps R., Chan C., Kapsalis S.C. Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies. Journal of Business Research 2001, 51(3):223-232.
    • (2001) Journal of Business Research , vol.51 , Issue.3 , pp. 223-232
    • Phelps, R.1    Chan, C.2    Kapsalis, S.C.3
  • 37
    • 35349000731 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Against history: the role of history in current Dutch society
    • van der Duin P.A. Against history: the role of history in current Dutch society. Foresight 2007, 9(6):11-21.
    • (2007) Foresight , vol.9 , Issue.6 , pp. 11-21
    • van der Duin, P.A.1
  • 40
    • 77951626144 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Directions in scenario planning literature-A review of past decades
    • Varum C.A., Melo C. Directions in scenario planning literature-A review of past decades. Futures 2010, 42:355-369.
    • (2010) Futures , vol.42 , pp. 355-369
    • Varum, C.A.1    Melo, C.2
  • 41
    • 0003376794 scopus 로고
    • Scenarios: shooting the rapids
    • November, December
    • Wack P. Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review 1985, 139--150. November, December.
    • (1985) Harvard Business Review , pp. 139-150
    • Wack, P.1
  • 42
    • 84875381994 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does the intuitive logics method - and its recent enhancements - produce effective scenarios?
    • Special Issue
    • Wright G., Bradfield R., Cairns G. Does the intuitive logics method - and its recent enhancements - produce effective scenarios?. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 2013, 80(4):631-642. Special Issue.
    • (2013) Technological Forecasting & Social Change , vol.80 , Issue.4 , pp. 631-642
    • Wright, G.1    Bradfield, R.2    Cairns, G.3
  • 43
    • 70349947934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method
    • Wright G., Goodwin P. Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method. International Journal of Forecasting 2009, 25(4):813-825.
    • (2009) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.25 , Issue.4 , pp. 813-825
    • Wright, G.1    Goodwin, P.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.