Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality

Climatic Change

Volumn 134, Issue 3, 2016, Pages 441-455

  Lloyd, Simon J ^a   Kovats, R Sari ^a   Chalabi, Zaid ^a   Brown, Sally ^b   Nicholls, Robert J ^b  

^a LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; DISASTERS; FLOODS; KNOWLEDGE BASED SYSTEMS; RISK PERCEPTION; SEA LEVEL; STORMS;

DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONS; FUTURE PROJECTIONS; LOW INCOME COUNTRIES; SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGE; SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTOR; SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESS; STATISTICAL MODELING;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DATA SET; DISASTER MANAGEMENT; LOW INCOME POPULATION; MODEL VALIDATION; MORTALITY RISK; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS; STORM SURGE; TIME SERIES; VULNERABILITY;

EID: 84959229930     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: 15731480     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1376-4     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Ahern M, Kovats RS, Wilkinson P, Few R, Matthies F (2005) Global health impacts of floods: epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 27:36–46
2. Barro RJ, Lee J-W (2000) International data on educational attainment. Centre for International Development at Harvard University, Cambridge
3. Brown S, Nicholls RJ, Lowe JA & Hinkel J (2013) Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: an application of DIVA. Clim Chang. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y
4. Cash RA, Halder SR, Husain M, Islam MS, Mallick FH, May MA, Rahman M, Rahman MA (2013) Reducing the health effect of natural hazards in Bangladesh. Lancet 382:2094–2103
5. CRED (2011) Emergency events database (EM-DAT) [Online]. Louvain. Available: http://www.emdat.be/ [Accessed 11 May 2011]
6. Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Murray S, Wheeler D (2009) Climate change and the future impacts of storm-surge disasters in developing countries. Centre for Global Development, Washington
7. DE Haen H, Hemrich G (2007) The economics of natural disasters: implications and challenges for food security. Agric Econ 37:31–45
8. Donaldson LJ, Donaldson RJ (2003) Essential public health. 2nd Edn. Petroc Press, Newbury
9. Emanuel K (2005) Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436:686–688
10. Fewtrell L, Kay D (2008) An attempt to quantify the health impacts of flooding in the UK using an urban case study. Public Health 122:446–451
11. Fritz HM, Blount CD, Thwin S, Thu MK, Chan N (2009) Cyclone Nargis storm surge in Myanmar. Nat Geosci 2:448–449
12. Hinkel J, Klein RJT (2009) Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: the development of the DIVA tool. Glob Environ Chang 19:384–395
13. IPCC (2012) Summary for policymakers. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
14. Jonkman SN (2005) Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods. Nat Hazards 342:151–175
15. Jonkman SN, Vrijling JK, Vrouwenvelder ACWM (2008) Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method. Nat Hazards 46:353–389
16. Jonkman SN, Maaskant B, Boyd E, Levitan ML (2009) Loss of life caused by the flooding of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: analysis of the relationship between flood characteristics and mortality. Risk Anal 29(5):676–698
17. Kellenberg DK, Mobarak AM (2008) Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters? J Urban Econ 63:1315–1337
18. Knabb RD, Rhome JR, Brown DP (2006) Tropical cyclone report: hurricane katrina, 23-30 August 2005. National Hurricane Centre, Miami
19. Li X, Tan H, Li S, Zhou J, Liu A, Yang T, Wen SW, Sun Z (2007) Years of potential life lost in residents affected by floods in Hunan, China. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 101:299–304
20. Maaskant B, Jonkman SN, Bouwer LM (2009) Future risk of flooding: an analysis of changes in potential loss of life in South Holland (The Netherlands). Environ Sci Pol 12:157–169
21. McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urban 19:17–37
22. McMichael AJ, Campbell-Lendrum D, Kovats RS, Edwards S, Wilkinson P, Wilson T, Nicolls RJ, Hales S, Tanser F, Le Suer D, Schlesinger M, Andronova N (2004) Global climate change. In: Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJ (eds) Comparative quantification of health risks. WHO, Geneva
23. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Special report on emission scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
24. Nicholls RJ, Hanson S, Herwiejer C, Patmore N, Hallegatte S, Corfee-Morlot J, Chateau J, Muir-Wood R (2007) Ranking of the world’s cities most exposed to coastal flooding today and in the future. OECD, Paris
25. Patt AG, Tadross M, Nussbaumer P, Asante K, Metzger M, Rafael J, Goujon A, Brundrit G (2010) Estimating least-developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:1333–1337
26. Peduzzi P, Chatenoux B, Dao H, De Bono A, Herold C, Kossin J, Mouton F, Nordbeck O (2012) Global trends in tropical cyclone risk. Nat Clim Chang 2:289–294
27. Peltier WR (2000a) Global glacial isostatic adjustment and modern instrumental records of relative sea level history. In: Douglas BC, Kearny MS, Leatherman SP (eds) Sea level rise: history and consequences. Academic, San Diego
28. Peltier WR (2000b) ICE4G (VM2) glacial isostatic adjustment corrections. In: Douglas BC, Kearny MS, Leatherman SP (eds) Sea level rise: history and consequences. Academic, San Diego
29. Penning-Roswell E, Floyd P, Ramsbottom D, Surendran S (2005) Estimating injury and loss of life in floods: a deterministic framework. Nat Hazards 36:43–64
30. Rappaport EN (2000) Loss of life in the United States associated with recent Atlantic tropical cyclones. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:2065–2073
31. Reis JDS, Stedinger JR (2005) Bayesian MCMC flood frequency analysis with historical information. J Hydrol 313:97–116
32. Schoenberg FP (2003) Multidimensional residual analysis of point process models for earthquake occurrences. J Am Stat Assoc 98:789–795
33. Shultz JM, Russell J, Espinel Z (2005) Epidemiology of tropical cyclones: the dynamics of disaster, disease, and development. Epidemiol Rev 27:21–35
34. UNDP (2010) The human development index [Online]. New York. Available: http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi/ [Accessed 11 May 2011]
35. UNISDR (2011) GAR 2011: revealing risk, redefining development. United Nations International Stratety for Disaster Reduction, Geneva
36. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013) World population prospects: the 2012 revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables [Online]. New York. Available: http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2012_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf. Accessed 4 Apr 2015
37. Vafeidis AT, Nicholls RJ, McFadden L, Tol RSJ, Hinkel J, Spencer T, Grashoff PS, Boot G, Klein RJT (2008) A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. J Coast Res 24:917–924
38. Van Vuuren DP, Lucas PL, Hilderink H (2007) Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels. Glob Environ Chang 17:114–130
39. World Bank (2012) World bank development indicators [Online]. Available: http://www.worldbank.org/ [Accessed October 25th 2012]