Coping with the wickedness of public policy problems: Approaches for decision making under deep uncertainty

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Volumn 142, Issue 3, 2016, Pages

  Kwakkel, Jan H ^a   Walker, Warren E ^a   Haasnoot, Marjolijn ^a,b  

^a DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

^b DELTARES   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84958581419     PISSN: 07339496     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000626     Document Type: Editorial

References (50)

1. Auping, W., Pruyt, E., and Kwakkel, J. H. (2015). "Societal ageing in the Netherlands: A robust system dynamics approach." Syst. Res. Behav. Sci., 32(4), 485-501.
2. Bankes, S. C., Lempert, R. J., and Popper, S. (2001). "Computer-assisted reasoning." Comput. Sci. Eng., 3(2), 71-77.
3. Bankes, S. C., Walker, W. E., and Kwakkel, J. H. (2013). "Exploratory modeling and analysis." Encyclopedia of operations research and management science, S. Gass and M. C. Fu, eds., Springer, Berlin.
4. Ben Haim, Y. (2001). Information-gap decision theory: Decision under severe uncertainty, Academic Press, London.
5. Brown, C., Ghile, Y., Laverty, M., and Li, K. (2012). "Decision scaling: Linking bottom-up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector." Water Resour. Res., 48(9), 1-12.
6. Bryant, B. P., and Lempert, R. J. (2010). "Thinking inside the box: A participatory computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery." Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change, 77(1), 34-49.
7. Churchman, C. W. (1967). "Wicked problems. Guest editorial." Manage. Sci., 14(4), B141-B142.
8. Delta Programme. (2014). "Delta Programme 2015: Working on the delta." Hague, Netherlands.
9. Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R. J., and Pielke, R., Jr. (2009). "Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changing climate?" EOS, 90(13), 111-112.
10. Dewulf, A., Craps, M., Bouwen, R., Taillieu, T., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2005). "Integrated management of natural resources: Dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames." Water Sci. Technol., 52(6), 115-124.
11. Fischbach, J. R. (2010). "Managing New Orleans flood risk in an uncertain future using non-structural risk mitigation." Ph. D. dissertation, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA.
12. Groves, D. G. (2005). "New methods for identifying robust long-term water resources management strategies for California." Ph. D. dissertation, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA.
13. Groves, D. G., Bloom, E., Lempert, R. J., Fischbach, J. R., Nevills, J., and Goshi, B. (2014). "Developing key indicators for adaptive water planning." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000471, 05014008.
14. Groves, D. G., and Lempert, R. J. (2007). "A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios." Global Environ. Change, 17(1), 73-85.
15. Haasnoot, M. (2013). "Anticipating change-Sustainable water policy pathways for an uncertain future." Ph. D. dissertation, Twente Univ., Enschede, Netherlands.
16. Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., and ter Maat, J. (2013a). "Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world." Global Environ. Change, 23(2), 485-498.
17. Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., and Ter Maat, J. (2013b). "Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A new method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world." Global Environ. Change, 23(2), 485-498.
18. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., van Beek, E., and van Deursen, W. P. A. (2012). "Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment." Clim. Change, 115(3-4), 795-819.
19. Hallegatte, S., Shah, A., Lempert, R., Brown, C., and Gill, S. (2012). "Investment decision making under deep uncertainty: Application to climate change." World Bank, Washington, DC.
20. Hamarat, C., Kwakkel, J. H., and Pruyt, E. (2013). "Adaptive robust design under deep uncertainty." Technol. Forecast. Social Change, 80(3), 408-418.
21. Herman, J. D., Reed, P. M., Zeff, H. B., and Characklis, G. W. (2015). "How should robustness be defined for water systems planning under change." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 0401501210.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000509.
22. Herman, J. D., Zeff, H. B., Reed, P. M., and Characklis, G. (2014). "Beyond optimality: Multistakeholder robustness tradeoffs for regional water portfolio planning under deep uncertainty." Water Resour. Res., 50(10), 7692-7713.
23. Kasprzyk, J. R., Nataraj, S., Reed, P. M., and Lempert, R. J. (2013). "Many objective robust decision making for complex environmental systems undergoing change." Environ. Modell. Software, 42, 55-71.
24. Kwadijk, J. C. J., et al. (2010). "Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: A case study in the Netherlands." Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Change, 1(5), 729-740.
25. Kwakkel, J. H., Auping, W. L., and Pruyt, E. (2013). "Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty: The future of copper." Technol. Forecast. Social Change, 80(4), 789-800.
26. Kwakkel, J. H., Haasnoot, M., and Walker, W. E. (2015). "Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world." Clim. Change., 132(3), 373-386.
27. Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., and Marchau, V. A. W. J. (2010). "Classifying and communicating uncertainties in model-based policy analysis." Int. J. Technol. Policy Manage., 10(4), 299-315.
28. Lempert, R. J., and Groves, D. G. (2010). "Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American West." Technol. Forecast. Social Change, 77(6), 960-974.
29. Lempert, R. J., Groves, D. G., Popper, S. W., and Bankes, S. C. (2006). "A general, analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios." Manage. Sci., 52(4), 514-528.
30. Lempert, R. J., Popper, S., and Bankes, S. (2003). Shaping the next one hundred years: New methods for quantitative, long term policy analysis, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
31. Lempert, R. J., Schlesinger, M. E., and Bankes, S. C. (1996). "When we don't know the cost or the benefits: Adaptive strategies for abating climate change." Clim. Change, 33(2), 235-274.
32. Lempert, R. J., Sriver, R. L., and Keller, K. (2012). "Characterizing uncertain sea level rise projections to support investment decisions." California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA.
33. Liebman, J. C. (1976). "Some simple-minded observations on the role of optimization in public systems decision-making." Interfaces, 6(4), 102-108.
34. Lund, J. R. (2012). "Provoking more productive discussion of wicked problems." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000190, 193-195.
35. Matrosov, E. S., Padula, S., and Harou, J. J. (2013a). "Selecting portfolios of water supply and demand management strategies under uncertainty-Contrasting economic optimisation and 'robust decision making' approaches." Water Resour. Manage., 27(4), 1123-1148.
36. Matrosov, E. S., Woords, A. M., and Harou, J. J. (2013b). "Robust decision making and info-gap decision theory for water resource system planning." J. Hydrol., 494, 43-58.
37. McInerney, D., Lempert, R., and Keller, K. (2012). "What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses." Clim. Change, 112(3), 547-568.
38. Offermans, A. (2012). "Perspectives Method: towards socially robust river management." Ph. D. thesis, Univ. ofMaastricht, Maastricht, Netherlands.
39. Offermans, A., Haasnoot, M., and Valkering, P. (2011). "A method to explore social response for sustainable water management strategies under changing conditions." Sustainable Dev., 19(5), 312-324.
40. Parker, A. M., Srinivasan, S. V., Lempert, R. J., and Berry, S. H. (2015). "Evaluating simulation-derived scenarios for effective decision support." Technol. Forecast. Social Change, 91, 64-77.
41. Popper, S., Griffin, J., Berrebi, C., Light, T., and Min, E. Y. (2009). Natural gas and Israel's energy future: A strategic analysis under conditions of deep uncertainty, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
42. Pruyt, E., and Kwakkel, J. H. (2014). "Radicalization under deep uncertainty: A multi-model exploration of activism, extremism and terrorism." Syst. Dyn. Rev., 30(1-2), 1-28.
43. Reed, P. M., and Kasprzyk, J. R. (2009). "Water resources management: The myth, the wicked and the future." J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000047, 411-413.
44. Reeder, T., and Ranger, N. (2015). "How do you adapt in an uncertain world? Lessons from the Thames Estuary 2100 project." World Resources Rep., Washington, DC.
45. Rittel, H. W. J., and Webber, M. W. (1973). "Dilemmas in a general theory of planning." Policy Sci., 4(2), 155-169.
46. Rosenzweig, C., and Solecki, W. D. (2014). "Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in New York: Lessons from a first-responder city." Global Environ. Change, 28, 395-408.
47. Seong, S., Popper, S., and Zheng, K. (2005). Strategic choices in science and technology: Korea in the era of a rising China, RAND, Santa Monica, CA.
48. Singh, R., Reed, P. M., and Keller, K. (2015). "Many-objective robust decision making for managing an ecosystem with a deeply uncertain threshold response." Ecol. Soc., 20(3), 12.
49. Walker, W. E., Lempert, R., and Kwakkel, J. H. (2013). "Deep uncertainty." Encyclopedia of operations research and management science, S. Gass, and M. Fu, eds., Springer, Berlin.
50. Walker, W. E., Rahman, S. A., and Cave, J. (2001). "Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policymaking." Eur. J. Oper. Res., 128(2), 282-289.