Classifying and communicating uncertainties in model-based policy analysis

International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management

Volumn 10, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 299-315

  Kwakkel, Jan H ^a   Walker, Warren E ^a   Marchau, Vincent A W J ^a  

^a DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Integrated assessment; Model based decision support; Policy analysis; Risk analysis; Uncertainty; Uncertainty management

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; RISK ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT;

DECISION SUPPORTS; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; POLICY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY; UNCERTAINTY MANAGEMENT;

UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EID: 78449262698     PISSN: 14684322     EISSN: 17415292     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1504/IJTPM.2010.036918     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Ben-Haim, Y. (2006) Information-Gap Decision Theory: Decisions under Severe Uncertainty. New York: Wiley.
2. Brown, J.D. (2004) 'Knowledge, uncertainty and physical geography: Towards the development of methodologies for questioning belief', Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp.367-381.
3. Brugnach, M., Dewulf, A., Pahl-Wostl, C. and Taillieu, T. (2008) 'Towards a relational concept of uncertainty: About knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know', Ecology and Society, Vol. 13, No. 2, p.30, Available at: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/ vol13/iss2/art30/.
4. Courtney, H. (2001) 20|20 Foresight: Crafting Strategy in an Uncertain World. Boston: Harvard Business School Press.
5. Dewulf, A., Craps, M., Bouwen, R., Taillieu, T. and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2005) 'Integrated management of natural resources: Dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames', Water Science and Technology, Vol. 52, No. 6, pp.115-124.
6. Fijnvandraat, M.L. (2008) 'Shedding Light on the Black Hole the roll-out of broadband access networks by private operators', PhD, Faculty of Technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
7. Funtowicz, S.O. and Ravetz, J.R. (1990) Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
8. Gillund, F., Kjølber, K., Krayer Von Krauss, M.P. and Myhr, A.I. (2008) 'Do uncertainty analyses reveal uncertainties? Using the introduction of DNA vaccines to aquaculture as a case', Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 407, No. 1, pp.185-196.
9. Hodges, J.S. (1987) 'Uncertainty, policy analysis, and statistics', Statistical Science, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp.259-257.
10. Janssen, P.H.M., Petersen, A.C., Van der Sluijs, J.P., Risbey, J.S. and Ravetz, J.R. (2005) 'A guidance for assessing and communicating uncertainty', Water Science and Technology, Vol. 52, No. 6, pp.125-131.
11. Knight, F.H. (1921) Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Mineola, New York: Dover Publication.
12. Krayer von Krauss, M.P. (2005) 'Uncertainty in policy relevant sciences', PhD, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby.
13. Krayer von Krauss, M.P., Casman, E.A. and Small, M.J. (2004) 'Elicitation of expert judgments of uncertainty in the risk assessment of herbicide-tolerant oilseed crops', Risk Analysis, Vol. 24, No. 6, pp.1515-1527.
14. Krayer von Krauss, M.P., Kaiser, M., Almaas, V., Van der Sluijs, J.P. and Kloprogge, P. (2008) 'Diagnosing and prioritizing uncertainties according to their relevance for policy: The case of transgene silencing', Science of the Total Environment, Vol. 390, No. 1, pp.23-34.
15. Kwakkel, J.H. and Cunningham, S.W. (2009) 'Managing polysemy and synonymy in science mapping using the mixtures of factor analyzers model', Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Vol. 60, No. 10, pp.2064-2078.
16. Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E. and Wijnen, R.A.A. (2008) 'The treatment of uncertainty in airport strategic planning: The case of Schiphol Airport's long-term vision', in Papatheodorou, A. and Iatrou, K. (Eds.), 12th Air Transport Research Society World Conference. Athens, Greece.
17. Lempert, R.J. (2002) 'A new decision sciences for complex systems', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 99, No. 3, pp.7309-7313.
18. Lempert, R.J., Popper, S. and Bankes, S. (2002) 'Confronting surprise', Social Science Computer Review, Vol. 20, No. 4, pp.420-439.
19. Luce, R.D. and Raiffa, H. (1957) Games and Decisions. New York: Wiley.
20. Marchau, V.A.W.J., Walker, W.E. and Van Duin, R. (2009) 'An adaptive approach to implementing innovative urban transport solutions', Transport Policy, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp.405-412.
21. Meijer, I.S.M. (2008) Uncertainty and Entrepreneurial Action: The Role of Uncertainty in the Development of Emerging Energy Technologies. PhD, Utrecht: University of Utrecht.
22. Meijer, I.S.M., Hekkert, M.P., Faber, J. and Smits, R.E.H.M. (2006) 'Perceived uncertainties regarding socio-technological transformations: Towards a typology', Int. J. Foresight and Innovation Policy, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp.214-240.
23. Meijer, I.S.M., Hekkert, M.P. and Koppenjan, J.F.M. (2007) 'How perceived uncertainties influence transitions; the case of micro-CHP in the Netherlands', Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 74, No. 4, pp.519-537.
24. Morgan, M.G. (2003) 'Characterizing and dealing with uncertainty: Insights from the integrated assessment of climate change', The Integrated Assessment Journal, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp.46-55.
25. Morgan, M.G. and Henrion, M. (1990) Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
26. Norton, J.P., Brown, J.D. and Mysiak, J. (2006) 'To what extent, and how, might uncertainty be defined?' Comments engendered by "Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support" Walker et al. Integrated Assessment, Vol. 4, No. 1, 2003;
27. The Integrated Assessment Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1, pp.82-88.
28. O'Hagan, A. and Oakley, J.E. (2004) 'Probability is perfect, but we can't elicit it perfectly', Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 85, Nos. 1-3, pp.239-248.
29. Pahl-Wostl, C., Moltgen, J., Sendzimir, J. and Kabat, P. (2005) 'New methods for adaptive water management under uncertainty - the NeWater Project', EWRA Conference.
30. Pahl-Wostl, C., Sendzimir, J., Jeffrey, P., Aerts, J., Berkamp, G. and Cross, K. (2007) 'Managing change towards adaptive water management through social learning', Ecology and Society, Vol. 12, No. 2, p.30. Available at: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss2/art30/.
31. Petersen, A.C. (2006) 'Simulating nature: A philosophical study of computer-simulation uncertainties and their role in climate science and policy advice', PhD, Universiteit Amsterdam.
32. Quade, E.S. (1982) Analysis for Public Decisions. New York: Elsevier Science Publishing Co. Inc.
33. Rechard, R.P. (1999) 'Historical relationship between performance assessment for radioactive waste disposal and other types of risk assessment', Risk Analysis, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp.763-807.
34. Refsgaard, J.C. (2007) Hydrological Modelling and River Basin Management. PhD, Copenhagen: Faculty of Natural Science, University of Copenhagen.
35. Refsgaard, J.C., Henriksen, H.J., Harrar, W.G., Scholten, H. and Kassahun, A. (2005) 'Quality assurance in model based water management - review of existing practice and outline of new approaches', Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 20, No. 10, pp.1201-1215.
36. Refsgaard, J.C., Van der Sluijs, J.P., Brown, J. and van der Keur, P. (2006) 'A framework for dealing with uncertainty due to model structure error', Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 26, No. 11, pp.1586-1597.
37. Refsgaard, J.C., Van der Sluijs, J.P., Hojberg, A. and Vanrolleghem, P.A. (2007) 'Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - a framework and guidance', Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 22, No. 22, pp.1543-1556.
38. Salling, K.B. and Leleur, S. (2006) 'Assessment of transport infrastructure projects by the use of Monte Carlo simulation: The CBA-DK model', Winter Simulation Conference. Monterey, California.
39. Salling, K.B. and Leleur, S. (2007) 'Appraisal of airport alternatives in Greenland by the use of risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation', in S.G. Henderson, B. Biller, M-H. Hsieh, J. Shortle, J.D. Tew and R.R. Barton (Eds.) Winter Simulation Conference. Washington, DC.
40. Samson, S., Reneke, J.A. and Wiecek, M.W. (2009) 'A review of different perspectives on uncertainty and risk and an alternative modeling paradigm', Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 94, No. 2, pp.558-567.
41. Skeels, M., Bongshin, L., Smith, G. and Robertson, G. (2008) 'Revealing uncertainty for information visualization', in S. Levialdi (Ed.), Working Conference on Advanced Visual Interfaces. Napoli, Italy: Association for Computing Machinery.
42. Stevens, S.S. (1946) 'On the theory of scales of measurement', Science, Vol. 103, No. 2684, pp.667-680.
43. van Asselt, M.B.A. (2000) Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
44. van Asselt, M.B.A. and Rotmans, J. (2002) 'Uncertainty in integrated assessment modelling. From positivism to pluralism', Climate Change, Vol. 54, Nos. 1-2, pp.75-105.
45. van der Keur, P., Henriksen, H.J., Refsgaard, J.C., Brugnach, M., Pahl-Wostl, C., Dewulf, A. and Buitenveld, H. (2008) 'Identification of major sources of uncertainty in current IWRM practice, illustrated for the Rhine Basin', Water Resource Management, Vol. 22, No. 11, pp.1677-1708.
46. Van der Sluijs, J.P. (2007) 'Uncertainty and precaution in environmental management: Insights from the UPEM conference', Environmental Modelling and Software, Vol. 22, No. 5, pp.590-598.
47. Van der Sluijs, J.P., Petersen, A.C., Janssen, P.H.M., Risbey, J.S. and Ravetz, J.R. (2008) 'Exploring the quality of evidence for complex and contested policy decisions', Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 3, No. 024008, pp.1-9.
48. Van der Sluis, J.P. (1997) Anchoring Amid Uncertainty: On the Management Of Uncertainties in Risk Assessment of Anthropogenic Climate Change. PhD, University of Utrecht, Utrecht.
49. Van Eeten, M.J.G. (1998) Dialogues of the Deaf: Defining New Agendas for Environmental Deadlocks. Dekft: Eburon.
50. Walker, W.E., Harremoës, J., Rotmans, J.P., Van der Sluijs, J.P., van Asselt, M.B.A., Janssen, P.H.M. and Krayer von Krauss, M.P. (2003) 'Defining uncertainty: A conceptual basis for uncertainty management in model-based decision support', Integrated Assessment, Vol. 4, No. 1, pp.5-17.
51. Warmink, J.J., Booij, M.J., van der Klis, H. and Hulscher, S.J.M.H. (2007) 'Uncertainty in water level predictions due to various calibrations', International Conference on Adaptive and Integrative Water Management. Basel, Switzerland.
52. Xu, Y.P., Holzhauer, H., Booij, M.J. and Sun, H.Y. (2008) 'A two-step approach to investigate the effect of rating curve uncertainty in the Elbe decision support system', Journal of Zhejiang University - Science a, Vol. 9, No. 9, pp.1229-1238.
53. Xu, Y.P. and Tung, Y.K. (2008) 'Decision-making in water management under uncertainty', Water Resource Management, Vol. 22, No. 5, pp.535-550.