Improved seasonal prediction of the hot summer of 2003 over Europe through better representation of uncertainty in the land surface

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 142, Issue 694, 2016, Pages 79-90

  Macleod, David A ^a   Cloke, Hannah L ^b   Pappenberger, Florian ^c   Weisheimer, Antje ^a,c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^c EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate models; Forecasting; Land surface; Seasonal climate; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; FORECASTING; HEAT FLUX; MOISTURE; SOIL MOISTURE; SOILS; STOCHASTIC MODELS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; SURFACE MEASUREMENT;

ATMOSPHERIC COMPONENTS; EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS; LAND SURFACE; SEASONAL CLIMATE; SOIL TEMPERATURE FIELDS; STOCHASTIC PERTURBATIONS; UNCERTAINTY; WEATHER AND CLIMATE MODELS;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; LAND SURFACE; SEASONAL VARIATION; SOIL MOISTURE; SUMMER; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EUROPE;

EID: 84957843179     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2631     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Adler RF, Susskind J, Huffman GJ, Bolvin D, Nelkin E, Chang A, Ferraro R, Gruber A, Xie PP, Janowiak J, Rudolf B, Schneider U, Curtis S, Arkin P. 2003. The version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present). J. Hydrometeorol. 4: 1147-1167, doi:10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004<1147:TVGPCP>2.0.CO;2.
2. Balmaseda MA, Mogensen K, Weaver AT. 2013. Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139: 1132-1161, doi:10.1002/qj.2063.
3. Balsamo G, Beljaars A, Scipal K, Viterbo P, van den Hurk B, Hirschi M, Betts AK. 2009. A revised hydrology for the ECMWF Model: Verification from field site to terrestrial water storage and impact in the integrated forecast system. J. Hydrometeorol. 10: 623-643, doi:10.1175/2008JHM1068.1.
4. Balsamo G, Albergel C, Beljaars A, Boussetta S, Brun E, Cloke H, Dee D, Dutra E, Muñoz Sabater J, Pappenberger F, de Rosnay P, Stockdale T, Vitart F. 2015. ERA-Interim/Land: A global land surface reanalysis data set. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 19: 389-407, doi:10.5194/hess-19-389-2015.
5. Berner J, Shutts GJ, Leutbecher M, Palmer TN. 2009. A spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. J. Atmos. Sci. 66: 603-626, doi:10.1175/2008JAS2677.1.
6. Beven K, Cloke H, Pappenberger F, Lamb R, Hunter N. 2014. Hyperresolution information and hyperresolution ignorance in modelling the hydrology of the land surface. Sci. China Earth Sci. 58: 25-35, doi:10.1007/s11430-014-5003-4.
7. Brier GW. 1950. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Mon. Weather Rev. 78: 1-3, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2.
8. Bröcker J, Smith LA. 2008. From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions. Tellus, Ser. A: Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanogr. 60 A: 663-678, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00333.x.
9. Carsel RF, Parrish RS. 1988. Developing joint probability distributions of soil water retention characteristics. Water Resour. Res. 24: 755-769, doi:10.1029/WR024i005p00755.
10. Cloke HL, Pappenberger F, Renaud JP. 2008. Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling flood plain hydrological processes. Hydrol. Processes 22: 1660-1674, doi:10.1002/hyp.6734.
11. Cosby BJ, Hornberger GM, Clapp RB, Ginn TR. 1984. A statistical exploration of the relationships of soil moisture characteristics to the physical properties of soils. Water Resour. Res. 20: 682-690, doi:10.1029/WR020i006p00682.
12. Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Andrae U, Balmaseda MA, Balsamo G, Bauer P, Bechtold P, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Delsol C, Dragani R, Fuentes M, Geer AJ, Haimberger L, Healy SB, Hersbach H, Hólm EV, Isaksen L, Kållberg P, Köhler M, Matricardi M, McNally AP, Monge-Sanz BM, Morcrette JJ, Park BK, Peubey C, de Rosnay P, Tavolato C, Thépaut JN, Vitart F. 2011. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 553-597, doi:10.1002/qj.828.
13. FAO. 2014. 'Digital soil map of the world'. http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/soil-survey/soil-maps-and-databases/faounesco-soil-map-of-the-world/en/ (accessed 7 September 2015).
14. Ferro CAT, Fricker TE. 2012. A bias-corrected decomposition of the Brier score. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 1954-1960, doi:10.1002/qj.1924.
15. Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Schär C. 2007a. Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34: L06 707, doi:10.1029/2006GL029068.
16. Fischer EM, Seneviratne SI, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Schär C. 2007b. Soil moisture atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heat wave. J. Clim. 20: 5081-5099, doi:10.1175/JCLI4288.1.
17. van Genuchten MT. 1980. A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 44: 892, doi:10.2136/sssaj1980.03615995004400050002x.
18. Guo Z, Dirmeyer PA. 2013. Interannual variability of land atmosphere coupling strength. J. Hydrometeorol. 14: 1636-1646, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-12-0171.1.
19. Hillel D. 1998. Environmental Soil Physics. Academic Press.
20. Koster RD, Dirmeyer PA, Guo Z, Bonan G, Chan E, Cox P, Gordon CT, Kanae S, Kowalczyk E, Lawrence D, Liu P, Lu CH, Malyshev S, McAvaney B, Mitchell K, Mocko D, Oki T, Oleson K, Pitman A, Sud YC, Taylor CM, Verseghy D, Vasic R, Xue Y, Yamada T. 2004. Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science (New York) 305: 1138-1140, doi:10.1126/science.1100217.
21. Miralles DG, van den Berg MJ, Teuling AJ, de Jeu Ra M. 2012. Soil moisture-temperature coupling: A multiscale observational analysis. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L21707, doi:10.1029/2012GL053703.
22. Palmer TN. 2012. Towards the probabilistic Earth-system simulator: A vision for the future of climate and weather prediction. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 841-861, doi:10.1002/qj.1923.
23. Palmer TN, Buizza R, Jung T, Leutbecher M, Shutts GJ, Steinheimer M, Weisheimer A. 2009, Stochastic Parametrization and Model Uncertainty, ECMWF Technical Memorandum 598. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts: Reading, UK.
24. Richards LA. 1931. Capillary conduction of liquids through porous mediums. Physics 1: 318, doi:10.1063/1.1745010.
25. Robine JM, Cheung SLK, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel JP, Herrmann FR. 2008. Death toll exceeded 70, 000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C.R. Biol. 331: 171-178, doi:10.1016/j.crvi.2007.12.001.
26. Rodell M, Houser PR, Berg AA, Famiglietti JS. 2005. Evaluation of 10 methods for initializing a land surface model. J. Hydrometeorol. 6: 146-155, doi:10.1175/JHM414.1.
27. Seneviratne SI, Lüthi D, Litschi M, Schär C. 2006. Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature 443: 205-209, doi:10.1038/nature05095.
28. Seneviratne SI, Corti T, Davin EL, Hirschi M, Jaeger EB, Lehner I, Orlowsky B, Teuling AJ. 2010. Investigating soil moisture climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth Sci. Rev. 99: 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004.
29. Seneviratne SI, Mueller B, Koster RD, Orth R. 2012. 'Role of land-surface processes for seasonal predictions'. In ECMWF Seminar on Seasonal Prediction: Science and Applications, 3-7 September. http://old.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/3072013 (accessed 7 September 2015).
30. Shao Y, Irannejad P. 1999. On the choice of soil hydraulic models in land-surface schemes. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 90: 83-115.
31. Shrestha R, Houser P. 2010. A heterogeneous land-surface model initialization study. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 115: D19111, doi:10.1029/2009JD013252.
32. Shutts G. 2005. A kinetic energy backscatter algorithm for use in ensemble prediction systems. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 3079-3102, doi:10.1256/qj.04.106.
33. Taylor CM, Birch CE, Parker DJ, Dixon N, Guichard F, Nikulin G, Lister GMS. 2013. Modeling soil moisture-precipitation feedback in the Sahel: Importance of spatial scale versus convective parametrization. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40: 6213-6218, doi:10.1002/2013GL058511.
34. Trangmar BB, Yost RS, Uehara G. 1986. Application of geostatistics to spatial studies of soil properties. Adv. Agron. 38(C): 45-94.
35. Weisheimer A, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Jung T, Palmer TN. 2011a. On the predictability of the extreme summer 2003 over Europe. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L05704, doi:10.1029/2010GL046455.
36. Weisheimer A, Palmer TN, Doblas-Reyes FJ. 2011b. Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38: L16703, doi:10.1029/2011GL048123.
37. Weisheimer A, Corti S, Palmer T, Vitart F. 2014. Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: Impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A 372: 20130, doi:10.1098/rsta.2013.0290.
38. Wilks DS. 2011. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (3rd edn), International Geophysics. Academic Press.