메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 142, Issue 694, 2016, Pages 196-210

A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Author keywords

Diabatic processes; Potential temperature; Potential vorticity; Rossby waves; Systematic forecast error; Tracers; Warm conveyor belt

Indexed keywords

BELT CONVEYORS; CONVEYORS; ERRORS; FORECASTING; MECHANICAL WAVES; RADIOACTIVE TRACERS; VORTICITY;

EID: 84957842722     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: 1477870X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2645     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (48)

References (58)
  • 1
    • 0000094119 scopus 로고
    • Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the UCLA general circulation model
    • Arakawa, A, Lamb V. 1977. Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the UCLA general circulation model. Methods Comput. Phys. 17: 173-265.
    • (1977) Methods Comput. Phys , vol.17 , pp. 173-265
    • Arakawa, A.1    Lamb, V.2
  • 2
    • 84862195046 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Systematic model error: The impact of increased horizontal resolution versus improved stochastic and deterministic parameterizations
    • Berner J, Jung T, Palmer TN. 2012. Systematic model error: The impact of increased horizontal resolution versus improved stochastic and deterministic parameterizations. J. Clim. 25: 4946-4962, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00297.1.
    • (2012) J. Clim , vol.25 , pp. 4946-4962
    • Berner, J.1    Jung, T.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 3
    • 0035270690 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: Theoretical aspects
    • Bishop CH, Etherton BJ, Majumdar SJ. 2001. Adaptive sampling with the ensemble transform Kalman filter. Part I: Theoretical aspects. Mon. Weather Rev. 129: 420-436.
    • (2001) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.129 , pp. 420-436
    • Bishop, C.H.1    Etherton, B.J.2    Majumdar, S.J.3
  • 5
    • 69549083390 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The local ETKF and SKEB: Upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system
    • Bowler NE, Arribas A, Beare SE, Mylne KR, Shutts GJ. 2009. The local ETKF and SKEB: Upgrades to the MOGREPS short-range ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135: 767-776.
    • (2009) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.135 , pp. 767-776
    • Bowler, N.E.1    Arribas, A.2    Beare, S.E.3    Mylne, K.R.4    Shutts, G.J.5
  • 6
    • 0033403384 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Buizza R, Milleer M, Palmer T. 1999. Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125: 2887-2908.
    • (1999) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.125 , pp. 2887-2908
    • Buizza, R.1    Milleer, M.2    Palmer, T.3
  • 7
    • 70349598245 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale
    • Chagnon JM, Gray SL. 2009. Horizontal potential vorticity dipoles on the convective storm scale. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 135: 1392-1408.
    • (2009) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.135 , pp. 1392-1408
    • Chagnon, J.M.1    Gray, S.L.2
  • 8
    • 84943425086 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A diabatically generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones
    • Chagnon JM, Gray SL. 2015. A diabatically generated potential vorticity structure near the extratropical tropopause in three simulated extratropical cyclones. Mon. Weather Rev. 143: 2337-2347, doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00092.1.
    • (2015) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.143 , pp. 2337-2347
    • Chagnon, J.M.1    Gray, S.L.2
  • 9
    • 84880703390 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diabatic processes modifying potential vorticity in a North Atlantic cyclone
    • Chagnon JM, Gray SL, Methven J. 2013. Diabatic processes modifying potential vorticity in a North Atlantic cyclone. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 139: 1270-1282.
    • (2013) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.139 , pp. 1270-1282
    • Chagnon, J.M.1    Gray, S.L.2    Methven, J.3
  • 10
    • 0001873907 scopus 로고
    • Numerical integration of the quasi-geostrophic equations for barotropic and simple baroclinic flows
    • Charney JG, Phillips NA. 1953. Numerical integration of the quasi-geostrophic equations for barotropic and simple baroclinic flows. J. Meteorol. 10: 71-99.
    • (1953) J. Meteorol , vol.10 , pp. 71-99
    • Charney, J.G.1    Phillips, N.A.2
  • 11
    • 0027871044 scopus 로고
    • The effect of Gulf Stream-induced baroclinicity on US East Coast winter cyclones
    • Cione JJ, Raman S, Piatrafesa LJ. 1993. The effect of Gulf Stream-induced baroclinicity on US East Coast winter cyclones. Mon. Weather Rev. 121: 421-430.
    • (1993) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.121 , pp. 421-430
    • Cione, J.J.1    Raman, S.2    Piatrafesa, L.J.3
  • 12
    • 84880760836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diagnosis and dynamics of forecast error growth
    • Davies HC, Didone M. 2013. Diagnosis and dynamics of forecast error growth. Mon. Weather Rev. 141: 2483-2501.
    • (2013) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.141 , pp. 2483-2501
    • Davies, H.C.1    Didone, M.2
  • 14
    • 0027067194 scopus 로고
    • A potential-vorticity diagnosis of the importance of initial structure and condensational heating in observed extratropical cyclogenesis
    • Davis CA. 1992. A potential-vorticity diagnosis of the importance of initial structure and condensational heating in observed extratropical cyclogenesis. Mon. Weather Rev. 120: 2409-2428.
    • (1992) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.120 , pp. 2409-2428
    • Davis, C.A.1
  • 15
    • 0001264490 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The March 1993 Superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic- and convective-scale flow interaction and model performance
    • Dickinson MJ, Bosart LF, Bracken WE, Hakim GJ, Schultz DM, Bedrick MA, Tyle KR. 1997. The March 1993 Superstorm cyclogenesis: Incipient phase synoptic- and convective-scale flow interaction and model performance. Mon. Weather Rev. 125: 3041-3072.
    • (1997) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.125 , pp. 3041-3072
    • Dickinson, M.J.1    Bosart, L.F.2    Bracken, W.E.3    Hakim, G.J.4    Schultz, D.M.5    Bedrick, M.A.6    Tyle, K.R.7
  • 16
    • 0030470929 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Studies with a flexible new radiation code. Part I: Choosing a configuration for a large-scale model
    • Edwards J, Slingo A. 1996. Studies with a flexible new radiation code. Part I: Choosing a configuration for a large-scale model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 122: 689-719.
    • (1996) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.122 , pp. 689-719
    • Edwards, J.1    Slingo, A.2
  • 17
    • 79960744938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet
    • Frame T, Ambaum M, Gray S, Methven J. 2011. Ensemble prediction of transitions of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137: 1288-1297.
    • (2011) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.137 , pp. 1288-1297
    • Frame, T.1    Ambaum, M.2    Gray, S.3    Methven, J.4
  • 19
    • 33847064241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mechanisms of midlatitude cross-tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach
    • Gray SL. 2006. Mechanisms of midlatitude cross-tropopause transport using a potential vorticity budget approach. J. Geophys. Res. 111: D17113, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006259.
    • (2006) J. Geophys. Res , vol.111
    • Gray, S.L.1
  • 20
  • 21
    • 0025590082 scopus 로고
    • A mass flux convection scheme with representation of cloud ensemble characteristics and stability-dependent closure
    • Gregory D, Rowntree PR. 1990. A mass flux convection scheme with representation of cloud ensemble characteristics and stability-dependent closure. Mon. Weather Rev. 118: 1483-1506.
    • (1990) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.118 , pp. 1483-1506
    • Gregory, D.1    Rowntree, P.R.2
  • 22
    • 84876888276 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation
    • Holloway CE, Woolnough SJ, Lister GMS. 2013. The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation. J. Atmos. Sci. 70: 1342-1369, doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0227.1.
    • (2013) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.70 , pp. 1342-1369
    • Holloway, C.E.1    Woolnough, S.J.2    Lister, G.M.S.3
  • 23
    • 84858291553 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of microphysical processes on the potential vorticity development in a warm conveyor belt: A case-study with the limited-area model COSMO
    • Joos H, Wernli H. 2012. Influence of microphysical processes on the potential vorticity development in a warm conveyor belt: A case-study with the limited-area model COSMO. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138: 407-418.
    • (2012) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.138 , pp. 407-418
    • Joos, H.1    Wernli, H.2
  • 24
    • 20544446370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Systematic errors of the atmospheric circulation in the ECMWF forecasting system
    • 256/qj.04.93.
    • Jung T. 2005. Systematic errors of the atmospheric circulation in the ECMWF forecasting system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 1045-1073, doi: 256/qj.04.93.
    • (2005) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.131 , pp. 1045-1073
    • Jung, T.1
  • 25
    • 27544487121 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Some aspects of systematic error in the ECMWF model
    • Jung T, Tompkins AM, Rodwell MJ. 2005. Some aspects of systematic error in the ECMWF model. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 6: 133-139, doi: 10.1002/asl.105.
    • (2005) Atmos. Sci. Lett , vol.6 , pp. 133-139
    • Jung, T.1    Tompkins, A.M.2    Rodwell, M.J.3
  • 27
    • 84896045783 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of two numerical weather prediction methods for diagnosing fast-physics errors in climate models
    • Klocke D, Rodwell M. 2014. A comparison of two numerical weather prediction methods for diagnosing fast-physics errors in climate models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: 517-524, doi: 10.1002/qj.2172.
    • (2014) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.140 , pp. 517-524
    • Klocke, D.1    Rodwell, M.2
  • 28
    • 0036326218 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cold-frontal potential vorticity maxima, the low-level jet, and moisture transport in extratropical cyclones
    • Lackmann GM. 2002. Cold-frontal potential vorticity maxima, the low-level jet, and moisture transport in extratropical cyclones. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 59-74.
    • (2002) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.130 , pp. 59-74
    • Lackmann, G.M.1
  • 29
    • 0036538427 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initial condition sensitivity and error growth in forecasts of the 25 January 2000 East Coast snowstorm
    • Langland RH, Shapiro MA, Gelaro R. 2002. Initial condition sensitivity and error growth in forecasts of the 25 January 2000 East Coast snowstorm. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 957-974.
    • (2002) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.130 , pp. 957-974
    • Langland, R.H.1    Shapiro, M.A.2    Gelaro, R.3
  • 30
    • 0037113446 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Air-sea interactions during the passage of a winter storm over the Gulf Stream: A three-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean model study
    • 21-1-21-13
    • Li Y, Xue H, Bane JM. 2002. Air-sea interactions during the passage of a winter storm over the Gulf Stream: A three-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean model study. J. Geophys. Res. 107: 21-1-21-13, doi: 10.1029/2001JC001161.
    • (2002) J. Geophys. Res , vol.107
    • Li, Y.1    Xue, H.2    Bane, J.M.3
  • 31
    • 0034276838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new boundary layer mixing scheme. Part I: Scheme description and single-column model tests
    • Lock AP, Brown AR, Bush MR, Martin GM, Smith RNB. 2000. A new boundary layer mixing scheme. Part I: Scheme description and single-column model tests. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 3187-3199.
    • (2000) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.128 , pp. 3187-3199
    • Lock, A.P.1    Brown, A.R.2    Bush, M.R.3    Martin, G.M.4    Smith, R.N.B.5
  • 33
    • 84892450411 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979-2010). PartI: Climatology and potential vorticity evolution
    • Madonna E, Wernli H, Joos H, Martius O. 2014. Warm conveyor belts in the ERA-Interim dataset (1979-2010). PartI: Climatology and potential vorticity evolution. J. Clim. 27: 3-26.
    • (2014) J. Clim , vol.27 , pp. 3-26
    • Madonna, E.1    Wernli, H.2    Joos, H.3    Martius, O.4
  • 35
    • 67349233042 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of systematic errors in the Southeast Pacific on ENSO variability and prediction in a coupled GCM
    • Manganello JV, Huang B. 2009. The influence of systematic errors in the Southeast Pacific on ENSO variability and prediction in a coupled GCM. Clim. Dyn. 32: 1015-1034, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0407-5.
    • (2009) Clim. Dyn , vol.32 , pp. 1015-1034
    • Manganello, J.V.1    Huang, B.2
  • 36
    • 78650085932 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Analysis and reduction of systematic errors through a seamless approach to modeling weather and climate
    • Martin GM, Milton SF, Senior CA, Brooks ME, Ineson S, Reichler T, Kim J. 2010. Analysis and reduction of systematic errors through a seamless approach to modeling weather and climate. J. Clim. 23: 5933-5957, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3541.1.
    • (2010) J. Clim , vol.23 , pp. 5933-5957
    • Martin, G.M.1    Milton, S.F.2    Senior, C.A.3    Brooks, M.E.4    Ineson, S.5    Reichler, T.6    Kim, J.7
  • 37
    • 84957849394 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Implications of model error for numerical climate prediction
    • Martínez-Alvarado O. 2014. Implications of model error for numerical climate prediction. Nonlinear Processes Geophys. Discuss. 1: 131-153, doi: 10.5194/npgd-1-131-2014.
    • (2014) Nonlinear Processes Geophys. Discuss , vol.1 , pp. 131-153
    • Martínez-Alvarado, O.1
  • 38
    • 84905025331 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Parameterised diabatic processes in numerical simulations of an extratropical cyclone
    • Martínez-Alvarado O, Plant RS. 2014. Parameterised diabatic processes in numerical simulations of an extratropical cyclone. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140: 1742-1755, doi: 10.1002/qj.2254.
    • (2014) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.140 , pp. 1742-1755
    • Martínez-Alvarado, O.1    Plant, R.S.2
  • 40
    • 84932197501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow
    • Methven J. 2015. Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141: 1065-1071.
    • (2015) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.141 , pp. 1065-1071
    • Methven, J.1
  • 42
    • 0036693049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An assessment of the surface turbulent heat fluxes from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis over the Western Boundary Currents
    • Moore GWK, Renfrew IA. 2002. An assessment of the surface turbulent heat fluxes from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis over the Western Boundary Currents. J. Clim. 15: 2020-2037.
    • (2002) J. Clim , vol.15 , pp. 2020-2037
    • Moore, G.W.K.1    Renfrew, I.A.2
  • 43
    • 58049196895 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles
    • Park YY, Buizza R, Leutbecher M. 2008. TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 134: 2029-2050, doi: 10.1002/qj.334.
    • (2008) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.134 , pp. 2029-2050
    • Park, Y.Y.1    Buizza, R.2    Leutbecher, M.3
  • 45
    • 33947263828 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models
    • Rodwell MJ, Palmer TN. 2007. Using numerical weather prediction to assess climate models. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133: 129-146, doi: 10.1002/qj.23.
    • (2007) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.133 , pp. 129-146
    • Rodwell, M.J.1    Palmer, T.N.2
  • 47
    • 84878350437 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What are climate models missing?
    • Stevens B, Bony S. 2013. What are climate models missing?. Science 340: 1053-1054, doi: 10.1126/science.1237554.
    • (2013) Science , vol.340 , pp. 1053-1054
    • Stevens, B.1    Bony, S.2
  • 48
    • 0001715108 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A potential vorticity-based study of the role of diabatic heating and friction in a numerically simulated baroclinic cyclone
    • Stoelinga MT. 1996. A potential vorticity-based study of the role of diabatic heating and friction in a numerically simulated baroclinic cyclone. Mon. Weather Rev. 124: 849-874.
    • (1996) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.124 , pp. 849-874
    • Stoelinga, M.T.1
  • 49
    • 79955142260 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme to improve MOGREPS probabilistic forecast skill
    • Tennant WJ, Shutts GJ, Arribas A, Thompson SA. 2011. Using a stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme to improve MOGREPS probabilistic forecast skill. Mon. Weather Rev. 139: 1190-1206.
    • (2011) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.139 , pp. 1190-1206
    • Tennant, W.J.1    Shutts, G.J.2    Arribas, A.3    Thompson, S.A.4
  • 51
    • 84892897418 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments
    • Vannière B, Guilyardi E, Toniazzo T, Madec G, Woolnough S. 2014. A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments. Clim. Dyn. 43: 2261-2282, doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2051-6.
    • (2014) Clim. Dyn , vol.43 , pp. 2261-2282
    • Vannière, B.1    Guilyardi, E.2    Toniazzo, T.3    Madec, G.4    Woolnough, S.5
  • 52
    • 0031417907 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. II: A detailed case-study
    • Wernli H. 1997. A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. II: A detailed case-study. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 123: 1677-1706.
    • (1997) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.123 , pp. 1677-1706
    • Wernli, H.1
  • 53
    • 0031450396 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. I: The method and some applications
    • Wernli H, Davies HC. 1997. A Lagrangian-based analysis of extratropical cyclones. I: The method and some applications. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 123: 467-489.
    • (1997) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.123 , pp. 467-489
    • Wernli, H.1    Davies, H.C.2
  • 54
    • 57249100726 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • SAL-A novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts
    • Wernli H, Paulat M, Hagen M, Frei C. 2008. SAL-A novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts. Mon. Weather Rev. 136: 4470-4487.
    • (2008) Mon. Weather Rev , vol.136 , pp. 4470-4487
    • Wernli, H.1    Paulat, M.2    Hagen, M.3    Frei, C.4
  • 55
    • 84928300858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Potential vorticity: Measuring consistency between GCM dynamical cores and tracer advection schemes
    • Whitehead JP, Jablonowski C, Kent J, Rood RB. 2015. Potential vorticity: Measuring consistency between GCM dynamical cores and tracer advection schemes. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141: 739-751, doi: 10.1002/qj.2389.
    • (2015) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.141 , pp. 739-751
    • Whitehead, J.P.1    Jablonowski, C.2    Kent, J.3    Rood, R.B.4
  • 56
    • 0032740909 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A microphysically based precipitation scheme for the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model
    • Wilson DR, Ballard SP. 1999. A microphysically based precipitation scheme for the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125: 1607-1636.
    • (1999) Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc , vol.125 , pp. 1607-1636
    • Wilson, D.R.1    Ballard, S.P.2
  • 57
    • 0038656650 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability
    • Zhang F, Snyder C, Rotunno R. 2003. Effects of moist convection on mesoscale predictability. J. Atmos. Sci. 60: 1173-1185.
    • (2003) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.60 , pp. 1173-1185
    • Zhang, F.1    Snyder, C.2    Rotunno, R.3
  • 58
    • 34248324431 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Convection-permitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics
    • Zhang F, Bei N, Rotunno R, Snyder C, Epifanio CC. 2007. Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Convection-permitting experiments and multistage error growth dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci. 64: 3579-3594.
    • (2007) J. Atmos. Sci , vol.64 , pp. 3579-3594
    • Zhang, F.1    Bei, N.2    Rotunno, R.3    Snyder, C.4    Epifanio, C.C.5


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.