An INCA model for pathogens in rivers and catchments: Model structure, sensitivity analysis and application to the River Thames catchment, UK

Science of the Total Environment

Volumn 572, Issue , 2016, Pages 1601-1610

  Whitehead, P G ^a   Leckie, H ^a   Rankinen, K ^b   Butterfield, D ^a   Futter, M N ^c   Bussi, G ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^b FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE   (Finland)

^c SWEDISH UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES   (Sweden)

Author keywords

E. coli; Land use change; Modelling; Pathogens; River Thames; Water quality

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURE; CATCHMENTS; DECAY (ORGANIC); GROUNDWATER; LAND USE; METEOROLOGICAL PROBLEMS; MODELS; RIVERS; RUNOFF; SEDIMENTS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SEWAGE TREATMENT; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER QUALITY;

AGRICULTURAL SOURCES; ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITIONS; E. COLI; INTEGRATED CATCHMENT MODEL; LAND-USE CHANGE; POINT SOURCE DISCHARGES; RIVER THAMES; SEWAGE TREATMENT WORKS;

PATHOGENS;

GROUND WATER;

CATCHMENT; COLIFORM BACTERIUM; LAND USE CHANGE; MODELING; PATHOGEN; RIVER WATER; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; WATER QUALITY;

ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERIC DEPOSITION; CATCHMENT; COLIFORM BACTERIUM; FECES; HUMAN; INTEGRATED CATCHMENT MODEL; LAND USE; MANURE; MICROBIAL CONTAMINATION; MODEL; MONTE CARLO METHOD; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RIVER; SEDIMENT; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SOIL; UNITED KINGDOM; WATER CONTAMINATION; WATER FLOW; AGRICULTURE; ENGLAND; ENTEROBACTERIACEAE; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; ISOLATION AND PURIFICATION; MICROBIOLOGY; PARASITOLOGY; PROCEDURES; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; THEORETICAL MODEL; VIROLOGY; WASTE WATER;

ENGLAND; THAMES RIVER [ENGLAND]; UNITED KINGDOM;

AGRICULTURE; ENGLAND; ENTEROBACTERIACEAE; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; MODELS, THEORETICAL; RIVERS; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; WASTE WATER;

EID: 84957667662     PISSN: 00489697     EISSN: 18791026     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.01.128     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Alcamo, J., Floerke, M., Maerker, M., Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes. Hydrol. Sci. J. 52:2 (2007), 247–275.
2. Amirat, L., Wildeboer, D., Abuknesha, R.A., Price, R.G., Escherichia coli contamination of the river Thames in different seasons and weather conditions. Water and Environment Journal 26:4 (2012), 482–489.
3. Avery, S.M., Moore, A., Hutchison, M.L., Fate of Escherichia coli originating from livestock faeces deposited directly onto pasture. Lett. Appl. Microbiol. 38:5 (2004), 355–359.
4. BGS, Groundwater Science in the Thames Basin. 2014, British Geological Society, Nottingham, UK [online],available: http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/groundwater/waterResources/thames/home.html [accessed 6/08/2014].
5. Castellazzi, M.S., Matthews, J., Angevin, F., Sausse, C., Wood, G.A., Burgess, P.J., Brown, I., Conrad, K.F., Perry, J.N., Simulation scenarios of spatio-temporal arrangement of crops at the landscape scale. Environ. Model Softw. 25 (2010), 1881–1889, 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.006.
6. Chapra, S.C., Chapter 27. Pathogens. Surface Water-Quality Modelling, 2013, Waveland Pr Inc. (ISBN-10:1577666054).
7. Coffey, R., Dorai-Raj, S., O'Flaherty, V., Cormican, M., Cummins, E., Modeling of pathogen indicator organisms in a small-scale agricultural catchment using SWAT. Hum. Ecol. Risk. Assess. 19 (2013), 232–253.
8. Collins, R., Rutherford, K., Modelling bacterial water quality in streams draining pastoral land. Water Res. 38:3 (2004), 700–712.
9. Crossman, J., Whitehead, P.G., Futter, M.N., Jin, L., Shahgedanova, M., Castellazzi, M., Wade, A.J., The interactive responses of water quality and hydrology to changes in multiple stressors, and implications for the long-term effective management of phosphorus. Sci. Total Environ. 454-455 (2013), 230–244.
10. de Brauwere, A., Ouattara, N.K., Servais, P., Modeling fecal indicator bacteria concentrations in natural surface waters: a review. Crit. Rev. Environ. Sci. Technol. 44 (2014), 2380–2453.
11. DEFRA, UK Agricultural Census Database (2008)., 2014 [online], available: http://edina.ac.uk/agcensus/description.html [accessed 1/08/2014].
12. Domingo, J.W.S., Bambic, D.G., Edge, T.A., Wuertz, S., Quo vadis source tracking? Towards a strategic framework for environmental monitoring of fecal pollution. Water Res. 41:16 (2007), 3539–3552.
13. Donsel, D.J.V., Geldreich, E.E., Clarke, N.A., Seasonal variations in survival of indicator bacteria in soil and their contribution to storm-water pollution. Appl. Microbiol. 15:6 (1967), 1362–1370.
14. DWI (2015), Drinking water 2014: private water supplies in England, A report by the Chief Inspector of Drinking Water, Drinking Water Inspectorate, London, UK.
15. Entry, J.A., Farmer, N., Asae, A., Influence of Aquifers on Movement and Survival of Coliform Bacteria in Groundwater, Preferential Flow: Water Movement and Chemical Transport in the Environment. 2000.
16. Environment Agency, The Microbiology of Sewage Sludge (2003) — Part 1 — An Overview of the Treatment and Use in Agriculture of Sewage Sludge in Relation to Its Impact on the Environment and Public Health. 2003, Environment Agency, UK.
17. European Commission, Seventh Report on the Implementation of the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC) {SWD(2013) 298 final}. 2013, European Commission, Brussels, UK.
18. Feighery, J., Mailloux, B.J., Ferguson, A.S., Ahmed, K.M., van Geen, A., Culligan, P.J., Transport of E. coli in aquifer sediments of Bangladesh: implications for widespread microbial contamination of groundwater. Water Resour. Res. 49:7 (2013), 3897–3911.
19. Ferguson, C.M., Croke, B.F.W., Beatson, P.J., Ashbolt, N.J., Deere, D.A., Development of a process-based model to predict pathogen budgets for the Sydney drinking water catchment. Journal of Water and Health 5 (2007), 187–208.
20. Futter, M.N., Butterfield, D., Cosby, B.J., Dillon, P.J., Wade, A.J., Whitehead, P.G., Modeling the mechanisms that control in-stream dissolved organic carbon dynamics in upland and forested catchments. Water Resour. Res., 43(2), 2007.
21. Futter, M.N., Poste, A.E., Dillon, P.J., Butterfield, D., Lean, D.R.S., Dastoor, A.P., Whitehead, P.G., Using the INCA-Hg model of mercury cycling to simulate total and methyl mercury concentrations in forest streams and catchments. Sci. Total Environ., 2012, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.02.048.
22. Futter, M.N., Erlandsson, M.A., Butterfield, D., Whitehead, P.G., Oni, S.K., Wade, A.J., PERSiST: A flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 18 (2014), 855–873, 10.5194/hess-18-855-2014.
23. Garzio-Hadzick, A., Shelton, D.R., Hill, R.L., Pachepsky, Y.A., Guber, A.K., Rowland, R., Survival of manure-borne E. coil in streambed sediment: effects of temperature and sediment properties. Water Res. 44:9 (2010), 2753–2762.
24. Gonzalez, J.M., Modelling enteric bacteria survival in aquatic systems. Hydrobiologia 316:2 (1995), 109–116.
25. IPCC (2014) Chapter 11. Human Health: Impacts, Adaptation, and Co-Benefits. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
26. Jin, L., Whitehead, P.G., Futter, M.N., Lu, Z., Modelling the impacts of climate change on flow and nitrate in the River Thames: assessing potential adaptation strategies. Hydrol. Res. 43:6 (2012), 902–916.
27. Kay, D. (2014) Summary of T90 values (hr) for Escherichia coli and Intertestinal enterococci die-off in microcosm studies undertaken on water samples from the River Ribble under irradiated and dark conditions, Recent unpublished dataset, Received by author via email 22 July 2014 (personal communication).
28. Kay, D., Edwards, A.C., Ferrier, R.C., Francis, C., Kay, C., Rushby, L., Watkins, J., McDonald, A.T., Wyer, M., Crowther, J., Wilkinson, J., Catchment microbial dynamics: the emergence of a research agenda. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 31:1 (2007), 59–76.
29. Kay, D., Watkins, J., Francis, C.A., Wyn-Jones, A.P., Stapleton, C.M., Fewtrell, L., Wyer, M.D., Drury, D., The microbiological quality of seven large commercial private water supplies in the United Kingdom. Journal of Water and Health 5:4 (2007), 523–538.
30. Kay, D., Crowther, J., Stapleton, C.M., Wyer, M.D., Fewtrell, L., Edwards, A., Francis, C.A., McDonald, A.T., Watkins, J., Wilkinson, J., Faecal indicator organism concentrations in sewage and treated effluents. Water Res. 42:1–2 (2008), 442–454.
31. Kay, D., Anthony, S., Crowther, J., Chambers, B.J., Nicholson, F.A., Chadwick, D., Stapleton, C.M., Wyer, M.D., Microbial water pollution: a screening tool for initial catchment-scale assessment and source apportionment. Sci. Total Environ. 408:23 (2010), 5649–5656.
32. Keswick, B.H., Gerba, C.P., Secor, S.L., Cech, I., Survival of enteric viruses and indicator bacteria in groundwater. J. Environ. Sci. Health, Part A: Environ. Sci. Eng. 17:6 (1982), 903–912.
33. Lang, N.L., Bellett-Travers, M.D., Smith, S.R., Field investigations on the survival of Escherichia coli and presence of other enteric micro-organisms in biosolids-amended agricultural soil. J. Appl. Microbiol. 103:5 (2007), 1868–1882.
34. Lazar, A.N., Butterfield, D., Futter, M.N., Rankinen, K., Thouvenot-Korppoo, M., Jarritt, N., Lawrence, D.S.L., Wade, A.J., Whitehead, P.G., An assessment of the fine sediment dynamics in an upland river system: INCA-Sed modifications and implications for fisheries. Sci. Total Environ. 408:12 (2010), 2555–2566.
35. Liu, C., Hofstra, N., Franz, E., Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp. Int. J. Food Microbiol. 163:2–3 (2013), 119–128.
36. Ludicello, J.J., Chin, D.A., In-stream bacteria modelling as a function of the hydrologic state of a watershed. J. Environ. Eng., 141, 2015.
37. Maszle, D.R., Whitehead, P.G., Johnson, R., Spear, R.C., Hydroleogical studies of schistosomiasis transport in Sichuan Province, China. Sci. Total Environ. 216 (1998), 193–203.
38. McGrane, S.J., Tetzlaff, D., Soulsby, C., Application of a linear regression model to assess the influence of urbanised areas and grazing pastures on the microbiological quality of rural streams. Environ. Monit. Assess. 186 (2014), 7141–7155.
39. McIntyre, N., Jackson, B., Wade, A.J., Butterfield, D., Wheater, H.S., Sensitivity analysis of a catchment-scale nitrogen model. J. Hydrol. 315:1–4 (2005), 71–92.
40. Meays, C.L., Broersma, K., Nordin, R., Mazumder, A., Source tracking fecal bacteria in water: a critical review of current methods. J. Environ. Manag. 73:1 (2004), 71–79.
41. Muirhead, R.W., Elliot, A.H., Monaghan, R.M., A model framework to assess the effect of dairy farms and wild fowl on microbial water quality during base-flow. Water Res. 45 (2011), 2863–2874.
42. Nichols, G., Lane, C., Asgari, N., Verlander, N.Q., Charlett, A., Rainfall and outbreaks of drinking water related disease and in England and Wales. Journal of Water and Health 7:1 (2009), 1–8.
43. Nicholson, F.A., Groves, S.J., Chambers, B.J., Pathogen survival during livestock manure storage and following land application. Bioresour. Technol. 96:2 (2005), 135–143.
44. Personné, J., Poty, F., Vaute, L., Drogue, C., Survival, transport and dissemination of Escherichia coli and enterococcci in a fissured environment. Study of a flood in a karstic aquifer. J. Appl. Microbiol. 84 (1998), 431–438.
45. Rankinen, K., Karvonen, T., Butterfield, D., An application of the GLUE methodology for estimating the parameters of the INCA-N model. Sci. Total Environ. 365:1–3 (2006), 123–139.
46. Rodda, J.C., Sustaining water resources in South East England. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 7:3 (2006), 75–77.
47. Sjogren, R.E., Prolonged survival of an environmental Escherichia coli in laboratory soil microcosms. Water Air Soil Pollut. 75:3–4 (1994), 389–403.
48. Thomann, R.V., Mueller, J.A., Principles of Surface Water Quality Modeling and Control. 1987, Harper, New York.
49. Wade, A.J., Durand, P., Beaujouan, V., Wessel, W.W., Raat, K.J., Whitehead, P.G., Butterfield, D., Rankinen, K., Lepisto, A., Towards a generic nitrogen model of European ecosystems: INCA, new model structure and equations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 6 (2002), 559–582.
50. Wade, A.J., Whitehead, P.G., Butterfield, D., The integrated catchments model of phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P), a new approach for multiple source assessment in heterogeneous river systems: model structure and equations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 6:3 (2002), 583–606.
51. Whitehead, P.G., Wilson, E.J., Butterfield, D., A semi-distributed integrated nitrogen model for multiple source assessment in catchments (INCA): part I — model structure and process equations. Sci. Total Environ. 210:1–6 (1998), 547–558.
52. Whitehead, P., Wilby, R.L., Battarbee, R.W., Kernan, M., Wade, A.J., A review of the potential impacts of climate change on surface water quality. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54:1 (2009), 101–123 (ISSN 0262-6667).
53. Whitehead, P.G., Jin, L., Baulch, H.M., Butterfield, D.A., Oni, S.K., Dillon, P.J., Futter, M., Wade, A.J., North, R., OConnor, E.M., Jarvie, H.P., Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: A study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada. Sci. Total Environ. 412 (2011), 315–323.
54. Whitehead, P.G., Crossman, J., Balana, B.B., Futter, M.N., Comber, S., Jin, L., Skuras, D., Wade, A.J., Bowes, M.J., Read, D.S., A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system. Philosophical Transactions Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences, 371(2002), 2013, 20120413.
55. Wilkinson, J., Jenkins, A., Wyer, M., Kay, D., Modeling fecal-coliform dynamics in streams and rivers. Water Res. 29:3 (1995), 847–855.
56. Wilkinson, J., Jenkins, A., Wyer, M., Kay, D., Modelling total coliform concentrations in streams. Report No. 127, 1995, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire.
57. Wilkinson, J., McKergow, L.A., Davies-Colley, R.J., Ballantine, D.J., Young, R.G., Modelling storm-event E. coli pulses from the Motueka and Sherry Rivers in the South Island, New Zealand. N. Z. J. Mar. Freshw. Res. 45:3 (2011), 369–393.