External validation and comparison of six prognostic models in a prospective cohort of HBV-ACLF in china

Annals of Hepatology

Volumn 15, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 236-245

  Shen, Yi ^a   Liu, Yan Mei ^a   Wang, Bin ^a   Zhu, Yong Gen ^a   Wang, Yuan Yuan ^a   Wang, Xu Lin ^a   Ji, Ju Ling ^a   Shao, Jian Guo ^a   Qin, Yan ^b   Qin, Gang ^a  

^a NANTONG UNIVERSITY   (China)

^b SINGAPORE GENERAL HOSPITAL   (Singapore)

Author keywords

Acute on chronic liver failure; Hepatitis B virus; Prognostic scores

Indexed keywords

SODIUM;

ACUTE ON CHRONIC LIVER FAILURE; ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; CHILD PUGH SCORE; CHINA; COHORT ANALYSIS; COMPARATIVE STUDY; CONTROLLED STUDY; DIAGNOSTIC ACCURACY; DIAGNOSTIC TEST ACCURACY STUDY; END STAGE LIVER DISEASE; FEMALE; HEPATITIS B; HUMAN; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MEDICAL RECORD REVIEW; PREDICTIVE VALUE; PROGNOSIS; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SURVIVAL RATE; VALIDATION STUDY; AGE; BLOOD; CHRONIC HEPATITIS B; COMPLICATION; DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS; MIDDLE AGED; MORTALITY; PROSPECTIVE STUDY; SEVERITY OF ILLNESS INDEX; YOUNG ADULT;

ACUTE-ON-CHRONIC LIVER FAILURE; ADULT; AGE FACTORS; AGED; CHINA; COHORT STUDIES; DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS; END STAGE LIVER DISEASE; FEMALE; HEPATITIS B, CHRONIC; HUMANS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; PROGNOSIS; PROSPECTIVE STUDIES; SEVERITY OF ILLNESS INDEX; SODIUM; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 84957096648     PISSN: 16652681     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5604/16652681.1193720     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Seto WK, Lai CL, Yuen MF. Acute-on-chronic liver failure in chronic hepatitis B. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2012; 27: 662-9.
2. Arroyo V, Moreau R, Jalan R, Gines P, Study E-CCC. Acuteon-chronic liver failure: A new syndrome that will re-classify cirrhosis. J Hepatol 2015; 62: S131-S143.
3. Li LJ. Diagnostic and treatment guidelines for Iiver failure. Zhonghua Gan Zang Bing Za Zhi 2006; 14: 643-6.
4. Si CW, Zhuang H. Prevention and cure project of viral hepatitis. Zhonghua Gan Zang Bing Za Zhi 2000; 8: 324-9.
5. Sarin SK, Kumar A, Almeida JA, Chawla YK, Fan ST, Garg H, de Silva HJ, et al. Acute-on-chronic liver failure: consensus recommendations of the Asian Pacific Association for the study of the liver (APASL). Hepatol Int 2009; 3: 269-82.
6. Olson JC, Kamath PS. Acute-on-chronic liver failure: concept, natural history, and prognosis. Curr Opin Crit Care 2011; 17: 165-9.
7. Jalan R, Gines P, Olson JC, Mookerjee RP, Moreau R, GarciaTsao G, Arroyo V, et al. Acute-on chronic liver failure. J Hepatol 2012; 57: 1336-48.
8. Malinchoc M, Kamath PS, Gordon FD, Peine CJ, Rank J, ter Borg PC. A model to predict poor survival in patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunts. Hepatology 2000; 31: 864-71.
9. Zhang Q, Yang F, Li X, Wang LW, Chu XG, Zhang H, Gong ZJ. Trichostatin A Protects Against Experimental Acute-onChronic Liver Failure in Rats Through Regulating the Acetylation of Nuclear Factor-kappaB. Inflammation 2015.
10. Cholongitas E, Senzolo M, Triantos C, Samonakis D, Patch D, Burroughs AK. MELD is not enough-enough of MELD? J Hepatol 2005; 42: 475-7; author reply 478-9.
11. Biggins SW, Kim WR, Terrault NA, Saab S, Balan V, Schiano T, Benson J, et al. Evidence-based incorporation of serum sodium concentration into MELD. Gastroenterology 2006; 130: 1652-60.
12. Kim WR, Biggins SW, Kremers WK, Wiesner RH, Kamath PS, Benson JT, Edwards E, et al. Hyponatremia and mortality among patients on the liver-transplant waiting list. N Engl J Med 2008; 359: 1018-26.
13. Huo TI, Wang YW, Yang YY, Lin HC, Lee PC, Hou MC, Lee FY, et al. Model for end-stage liver disease score to serum sodium ratio index as a prognostic predictor and its correlation with portal pressure in patients with liver cirrhosis. Liver Int 2007; 27: 498-506.
14. Luca A, Angermayr B, Bertolini G, Koenig F, Vizzini G, Ploner M, Peck-Radosavljevic M, et al. An integrated MELD model including serum sodium and age improves the prediction of early mortality in patients with cirrhosis. Liver Transpl 2007; 13: 1174-80.
15. Sharma P, Schaubel DE, Sima CS, Merion RM, Lok AS. Reweighting the model for end-stage liver disease score components. Gastroenterology 2008; 135: 1575-81.
16. Neuberger J, Gimson A, Davies M, Akyol M, O’Grady J, Burroughs A, Hudson M, et al. Selection of patients for liver transplantation and allocation of donated livers in the UK. Gut 2008; 57: 252-7.
17. Halldorson JB, Bakthavatsalam R, Fix O, Reyes JD, Perkins JD. D-MELD, a simple predictor of post liver transplant mortality for optimization of donor/recipient matching. Am J Transplant 2009; 9: 318-26.
18. Koller H, Rosenkranz A. Hyponatremia to be an excellent predictor of outcome in patients with advanced cirrhosis. Liver Transpl 2005; 11: 1001; author reply 1001-2.
19. Biselli M, Gitto S, Gramenzi A, Di Donato R, Brodosi L, Ravaioli M, Grazi GL, et al. Six score systems to evaluate candidates with advanced cirrhosis for orthotopic liver transplant: Which is the winner? Liver Transpl 2010; 16: 964-73.
20. Marroni CP, de Mello Brandao AB, Hennigen AW, Marroni C, Zanotelli ML, Cantisani G, Fuchs SC, et al. MELD scores with incorporation of serum sodium and death prediction in cirrhotic patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation: a single center experience in southern Brazil. Clin Transplant 2012; 26: E395-E401.
21. Pugh RN, Murray-Lyon IM, Dawson JL, Pietroni MC, Williams R. Transection of the oesophagus for bleeding oesophageal varices. Br J Surg 1973; 60: 646-9.
22. Huo TI, Lin HC, Wu JC, Lee FY, Hou MC, Lee PC, Chang FY, et al. Proposal of a modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh scoring system and comparison with the model for end-stage liver disease for outcome prediction in patients with cirrhosis. Liver Transpl 2006; 12: 65-71.
23. Xun YH, Shi JP, Li CQ, Li D, Shi WZ, Pan QC, Guo JC, et al. Prognostic performance of a series of model for end-stage liver disease and respective Delta scores in patients with hepatitis B acute-on-chronic liver failure. Mol Med Rep 2014; 9: 1559-68.
24. Berg CL, Steffick DE, Edwards EB, Heimbach JK, Magee JC, Washburn WK, Mazariegos GV. Liver and intestine transplantation in the United States 1998-2007. Am J Transplant 2009; 9: 907-31.
25. Hessel FP, Bramlage P, Wasem J, Mitzner SR. Cost-effectiveness of the artificial liver support system MARS in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure. Eur J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2010; 22: 213-20.
26. Qin G, Shao JG, Wang B, Shen Y, Zheng J, Liu XJ, Zhang YY, et al. Artificial Liver Support System Improves Shortand Long-Term Outcomes of Patients With HBV-Associated Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Single-Center Experience. Medicine (Baltimore) 2014; 93: e338.
27. Hosmer DWJ, Lemeshow S, Sturdivant R. Applied Logistic Regression. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2013.
28. Nagelkerke NJ. A note on a general definition of the coefficient of determination. Biometrika 1991; 78: 691-2.
29. Steyerberg EW, Vickers AJ, Cook NR, Gerds T, Gonen M, Obuchowski N, Pencina MJ, et al. Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for traditional and novel measures. Epidemiology 2010; 21: 128-38.
30. Wan Z, Wu Y, Yi J, You S, Liu H, Sun Z, Zhu B, et al. Combining serum cystatin C with total bilirubin improves shortterm mortality prediction in patients with HBVRelated acute on-chronic liver failure. PLoS One 2015; 10: e0116968.
31. Finkenstedt A, Dorn L, Edlinger M, Prokop W, Risch L, Griesmacher A, Graziadei I, et al. Cystatin C is a strong predictor of survival in patients with cirrhosis: is a cystatin C-based MELD better? Liver Int 2012; 32: 1211-6.
32. Myers RP, Shaheen AA, Aspinall AI, Quinn RR, Burak KW. Gender, renal function, and outcomes on the liver transplant waiting list: assessment of revised MELD including estimated glomerular filtration rate. J Hepatol 2011; 54: 462-70.
33. Yan H, Wu W, Yang Y, Wu Y, Yang Q, Shi Y. A novel integrated Model for End-Stage Liver Disease model predicts shortterm prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure patients. Hepatol Res 2014; 45(4): 405-14.
34. Londono MC, Cardenas A, Guevara M, Quinto L, de Las Heras D, Navasa M, Rimola A, et al. MELD score and serum sodium in the prediction of survival of patients with cirrhosis awaiting liver transplantation. Gut 2007; 56: 1283-90.
35. Cywinski JB, Mascha EJ, You J, Sessler DI, Kapural L, Argalious M, Parker BM. Pre-transplant MELD and sodium MELD scores are poor predictors of graft failure and mortality after liver transplantation. Hepatol Int 2011; 5: 841-9.
36. Tsubota A, Arase Y, Suzuki Y, Suzuki F, Sezaki H, Hosaka T, Akuta N, et al. Lamivudine monotherapy for spontaneous severe acute exacerbation of chronic hepatitis B. J Gastroenterol Hepatol 2005; 20: 426-32.
37. Xia Q, Dai X, Huang J, Xu X, Yang Q, Liu X, Chen Y, et al. A single-center experience of non-bioartificial liver support systems among Chinese patients with liver failure. Int J Artif Organs 2014; 37: 442-54.
38. Liu JP, Gluud LL, Als-Nielsen B, Gluud C. Artificial and bioartificial support systems for liver failure. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2004:CD003628
39. Cui YL, Yan F, Wang YB, Song XQ, Liu L, Lei XZ, Zheng MH, et al. Nucleoside analogue can improve the long-term prognosis of patients with hepatitis B virus infection-associated acute on chronic liver failure. Dig Dis Sci 2010; 55: 2373-80.
40. Wu SJ, Yan HD, Zheng ZX, Shi KQ, Wu FL, Xie YY, Fan YC, et al. Establishment and Validation of ALPH-Q Score to Predict Mortality Risk in Patients With Acute-on-Chronic Hepatitis B Liver Failure: A Prospective Cohort Study. Medicine (Baltimore) 2015; 94: e403.
41. Kim DH, Kim SH, Kim KS, Lee WJ, Kim NK, Noh SH, Kim CB. Predictors of mortality in cirrhotic patients undergoing extrahepatic surgery: comparison of Child-Turcotte-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease-based indices. ANZ J Surg 2014; 84: 832-6.
42. Silva PE, Fayad L, Lazzarotto C, Ronsoni MF, Bazzo ML, Colombo BS, Dantas-Correa EB, et al. Single-centre validation of the EASL-CLIF consortium definition of acute-on-chronic liver failure and CLIF-SOFA for prediction of mortality in cirrhosis. Liver Int 2015; 35: 1516-23.