Direct and indirect effects of climate and fishing on changes in coastal ecosystem services: a historical perspective from the North Sea

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 16, Issue 2, 2016, Pages 341-351

  Selim, Samiya A ^a   Blanchard, Julia L ^a   Bedford, Jacob ^a   Webb, Thomas J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SHEFFIELD   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Fisheries; Historical ecology; Marine ecosystem services; Path analysis

Indexed keywords

EID: 84956623520     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-014-0635-7     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Beaugrand G (2004) The North Sea regime shift: evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences. Prog Oceanogr 60:245–262. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2010.10.004
2. Beaumont NJ, Austen MC, Atkins JP, Burdon D, Degraer S, Dentinho TP, Derous S (2007) Identification, definition and quantification of goods and services provided by marine biodiversity: implications for the ecosystem approach. Mar Pollut Bull 54(3):253–265. doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2006.12.003
3. Bennett EM, Peterson GD, Gordon LJ (2009) Understanding relationships among multiple ecosystem services. Ecol Lett 12(12):1394–1404. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01387.x
4. Bowen RE, Riley C (2003) Socio-economic indicators and integrated coastal management. Ocean Coast Manag 46(3–4):299–312. doi:10.1016/S0964-5691(03)00008-5
5. Brien CMO, Fox CJ, Planque B, Casey J (2000) Climate variability and North Sea cod. Nature 404(3):1993–1994
6. Bullock JM, Aronson J, Newton AC, Pywell RF, Rey-Benayas JM (2011) Restoration of ecosystem services and biodiversity: conflicts and opportunities. Trends Ecol Evol 26(10):541–549. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.06.011
7. Cardinale BJ, Duffy JE, Gonzalez A, Hooper DU, Perrings C, Venail P, Narwani A et al (2012) Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity. Nature 486(7401):59–67. doi:10.1038/nature11148
8. Cattadori IM, Haydon DT, Hudson PJ (2005) Parasites and climate synchronize red grouse populations. Nature 433(7027):737–741. doi:10.1038/nature03276
9. Chan KM, Ruckelshaus M (2010) Characterizing changes in marine ecosystem services. F1000 Biol Rep 2(54). doi:10.3410/B2-54
10. Chin WW, Dibbern J, (2007) A permutation based procedure for multigroup PLS analysis: results of tests of differences on simulated data and a cross cultural analysis of the sourcing of information system services between Germany and the USA. In: V. Esposito Vinzi W, Chin J, Hensler H, Wold (eds) Handbook PLS and Marketing. Springer, Berlin
11. Craeymeersch JA, Duineveld GCA (2011) Abundance of benthic infauna in surface sediments from the North Sea sampled during cruise Tridens00/5. doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.756784
12. Cushing DH (1978) The decline of the herring stocks and the gadoid outburst. J du Conseil 39(1):70–81
13. Dulvy NK, Rogers SI, Jennings S, Stelzenmller V, Dye SR, Skjoldal HR (2008) Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: a biotic indicator of warming seas. J Appl Ecol 45(4):1029–1039. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01488.x
14. EC (2008) Directive 2008/56/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 June 2008 establishing a framework for community action in the field of marine environmental policy (Marine Strategy Framework Directive), OJ L 164, 25/06/2008, p 19–40
15. Engelhard GH, Payne A, Cotter J, Potter T (2009) Chapter 1. One Hundred and Twenty Years of Change in Fishing Power of English North Sea Trawlers, Advances in Fisheries Science: 50 years on from Beverton and Holt. doi:10.1002/9781444302653.ch1
16. Fauchald P, Skov H, Skern-Mauritzen M, Johns D, Tveraa T (2011) Wasp-waist interactions in the North Sea ecosystem. PLoS ONE 6(7):e22729. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0022729
17. Feld CK, Martins Da Silva P, Paulo Sousa J, De Bello F, Bugter R, Grandin U, Hering D et al (2009) Indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem services: a synthesis across ecosystems and spatial scales. Oikos 118(12):1862–1871. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17860.x
18. Garstang W (1900) The impoverishment of the sea. J Mar Biol Assoc UK 6:1–69
19. Gefen D, Straub D, Boudreau MC (2000) Structural Equation Modeling and Regression: Guidelines for Research Practice. Communications of the Association for Information Systems. 4(7)
20. Hair JF, Sarstedt M, Ringle CM, Mena JA (2011) An assessment of the use of partial least squares structural equation modeling in marketing research. J Acad Mark Sci 40(3):414–433. doi:10.1007/s11747-011-0261-6
21. Halpern BS, Longo C, Hardy D, McLeod KL, Samhouri JF, Katona SK, Kleisner K et al (2012) An index to assess the health and benefits of the global ocean. Nature 488(7413):615–620. doi:10.1038/nature11397
22. Harding D, Woolner L, Dann J (1986) The English groundfish surveys in the North Sea, 1977–85. ICES CM 1986/G:13, p 8
23. Hatcher A (1997) Producers’ organizations and devolved fisheries management in the United Kingdom: collective and individual quota systems. Mar Policy 21(6):519–534
24. Heath MR, Neat FC, Pinnegar JK, Reid DG, Sims DW, Wright PJ (2012) Review of climate change impacts on marine fish and shellfish around the UK and Ireland. Aquat Conserv 22(3):337–367. doi:10.1002/aqc.2244
25. Hislop J (1996) Changes in North Sea gadoid stocks. ICES J Mar Sci 53(6):1146–1156. doi:10.1006/jmsc.1996.0140
26. Hofstede R, Rijnsdorp AD (2011) Comparing demersal fish assemblages between periods of contrasting climate and fishing pressure. ICES J Mar Sci 68(6):1189–1198. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr053
27. Hurrell J (2013) National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (eds). Last modified 08 Oct 2013. “The Climate Data Guide: Hurrell North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index (PC-based).” https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/hurrell-north-atlantic-oscillation-nao-index-pc-based
28. ICES Catch Statistics and Stock Assessment, Extraction 3–30 May, 2013. ICES, Copenhagen http://www.ices.dk/marine-data/dataset-collections/Pages/Fish-catch-and-stock-assessment.aspx
29. ICES Working Group on the Assessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and Skagerrak; 6–15 September 2005. 2006. ICES Document CM 2006/ACFM:09. p 981
30. Jackson JB, Kirby MX, Berger WH, Bjorndal KA, Botsford LW, Bourque BJ, Bradbury RH et al (2001) Historical overfishing and the recent collapse of coastal ecosystems. Science 293(5530):629–637. doi:10.1126/science.1059199
31. Jennings S, Brander K (2010) Predicting the effects of climate change on marine communities and the consequences for fisheries. J Mar Syst 79(3–4):418–426. doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.12.016
32. Jennings S, Greenstreet SPR, Hill L, Piet GJ, Pinnegar JK, Warr KJ (2002) Long-term trends in the trophic structure of the North Sea fish community: evidence from stable-isotope analysis, size-spectra and community metrics. Mar Biol 141:1085–1097. doi:10.1007/s00227-002-0905-7
33. Kerby TK, Cheung WWL, Van Oosterhout C, Engelhard GH (2013) Wondering about wandering whiting: distribution of North Sea whiting between the 1920s and 2000s. Fish Res 145:54–65. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2013.02.012
34. Kremen C (2005) Managing ecosystem services: what do we need to know about their ecology? Ecol Lett 8(5):468–479. doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00751.x
35. Lauria V, Attrill MJ, Pinnegar JK, Brown A, Edwards M, Votier SC (2012) Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea. PLoS ONE 7(10):e47408. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047408
36. Link JS, Yemane D, Shannon LJ, Coll M, Shin YJ, Hill L, Borges MDF (2009) Relating marine ecosystem indicators to fishing and environmental drivers: an elucidation of contrasting responses ICES. J Mar Sci 67(4):787–795. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsp258
37. Lotze HK, Worm B (2009) Historical baselines for large marine animals. Trends Ecol Evol 24(5):254–262. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2008.12.004
38. Lotze HK, Coll M, Dunne JA (2010) Historical changes in marine resources, food-web structure and ecosystem functioning in the Adriatic Sea, Mediterranean. Ecosystems 14(2):198–222. doi:10.1007/s10021-010-9404-8
39. Luczak C, Beaugrand G, Lindley JA, Dewarumez JM, Dubois PJ, Kirby RR (2012) North Sea ecosystem change from swimming crabs to seagulls. Biol Lett 8(5):821–824. doi:10.1098/rsbl.2012.0474
40. Mace GM, Norris K, Fitter AH (2012) Biodiversity and ecosystem services: a multilayered relationship. Trends Ecol Evol 27(1):19–26. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.08.006
41. MacKenzie BR, Ojaveer H, Eero M (2011) Historical ecology provides new insights for ecosystem management: eastern Baltic cod case study. Mar Policy 35(2):266–270. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2010.10.004
42. Nelson E, Mendoza G, Regetz J, Polasky S, Tallis H, Cameron Dr, Chan KM et al (2009) Modeling multiple ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation, commodity production, and tradeoffs at landscape scales. Front Ecol Environ 7(1):4–11. doi:10.1890/080023
43. Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD (2005) Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science NY 308(5730):1912–1915. doi:10.1126/science.1111322
44. Pinnegar J (2007) ‘HMAP Dataset 17: North Sea Demersal Fish, Supporting Documentation’, in D.J. Starkey and J.H. Nicholls (comp.),, HMAP Data Pages (www.hull.ac.uk/hmap). Accessed 18 Dec 2013
45. Pinnegar JK, Viner D, Hadley D, Dye S, Harris M, Berkout F, Simpson M (2006) Alternative future scenarios for marine ecosystems: technical report. Cefas Lowestoft, Crown. p 109
46. R Development Core Team (2013) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, http://www.R-project.org
47. Raffaelli D, Friedlander AM (2012) Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: an ecosystem-level approach, in: Solan M et al. (ed) (2012). Marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning: Frameworks, methodologies, and integration. Oxford University Press, pp 149–163
48. Rijnsdorp A (1996) Changes in abundance of demersal fish species in the North Sea between 1906–1909 and 1990–1995. ICES J Mar Sci 53(6):1054–1062. doi:10.1006/jmsc.1996.0132
49. Roberts CM (2003) Our shifting perspectives on the oceans. Oryx 37(02):166–177. doi:10.1017/S0030605303000358
50. Roberts CM (2007) The Unnatural History of the Sea. Island Press, Washington, D.C
51. Rochet M-J, Trenkel VM, Carpentier A, Coppin F, De Sola LG, Léauté J-P, Mahé J-C et al (2010) Do changes in environmental and fishing pressures impact marine communities? An empirical assessment. J Appl Ecol 47(4):741–750. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01841.x
52. Rounsevell MDA, Dawson TP, Harrison PA (2010) A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Biodivers Conserv 19(10):2823–2842. doi:10.1007/s10531-010-9838-5
53. Sanchez G (2013) PLS Path Modeling with R Trowchez (eds) Berkeley 2013. http://gastonsanchez.com/PLS_Path_Modeling_with_R.pdf
54. Sirabella P, Giuliani A, Colosimo A, Dippner JW (2001) Breaking down the climate effects on cod recruitment by principal component analysis and canonical correlation. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 216(1996):213–222
55. Solan M, Aspden RJ, Paterson DM (2012) Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning: Frameworks, methodologies, and integration, Oxford University Press
56. Sparholt H (1990) An estimate of the total biomass of fish in the North Sea. ICES J Mar Sci 46(2):200–210
57. Sumaila UR, Cheung WWL, Lam VWY, Pauly D, Herrick S (2011) Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries. Nat Clim Chang 1(9):449–456. doi:10.1038/nclimate1301
58. Szabó P (2010) Why history matters in ecology: an interdisciplinary perspective. Environ Conserv 37(04):380–387. doi:10.1017/S0376892910000718
59. Tenenhaus M, Vinzi VE, Chatelin Y-M, Lauro C (2005) PLS path modeling. Comput Stat Data Anal 48(1):159–205. doi:10.1016/j.csda.2004.03.005
60. Vinzi VE, Trinchera L, Amato S (2010) Handbook of Partial Least Squares. Esposito Vinzi V, Chin WW, Henseler J, Wang H (eds). Berlin, Heidelberg, pp 47–83. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-32827-8
61. Worm B, Barbier EB, Beaumont N, Duffy JE, Folke C, Halpern BS, Jackson JBC et al (2006) Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science 314(5800):787. doi:10.1126/science.1132294