메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn , Issue , 2008, Pages 69-92

The Relation between Statistical Surveillance and Technical Analysis in Finance

Author keywords

Alarm statistic and alarm limit; Generalized filter rule (GFR); In sample performance and in sample estimation; Market value weighted index; Monotonicity and unimodality restrictions; Multivariate surveillance; Nonparametric and noninformative weights; On line turning point detection; Partial likelihood ratio; Piecewise linear regression

Indexed keywords

ALARM STATISTIC AND ALARM LIMIT; GENERALIZED FILTER RULE (GFR); NON-PARAMETRIC; ON-LINE TURNINGS; PARTIAL LIKELIHOODS; PIECEWISE LINEAR REGRESSION; SAMPLE ESTIMATIONS; UNIMODALITY; WEIGHTED INDEX;

EID: 84954322739     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1002/9780470987179.ch3     Document Type: Chapter
Times cited : (7)

References (73)
  • 1
    • 0002235761 scopus 로고
    • Price movements in speculative markets: Trends or random walks
    • Alexander, S. S. (1961). Price movements in speculative markets: Trends or random walks. Industrial Management Review, 2, 7-26.
    • (1961) Industrial Management Review , vol.2 , pp. 7-26
    • Alexander, S.S.1
  • 2
    • 0036736010 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach
    • Andersson, E. (2002). Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach. Journal of Applied Statistics, 29, 973-990.
    • (2002) Journal of Applied Statistics , vol.29 , pp. 973-990
    • Andersson, E.1
  • 3
  • 4
    • 67651139140 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effect of dependency in systems for multivariate surveillance
    • Technical Report 2007:1, Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, Göteborg University
    • Andersson, E. (2007). Effect of dependency in systems for multivariate surveillance. Technical Report 2007:1, Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, Göteborg University.
    • (2007)
    • Andersson, E.1
  • 5
    • 0010328677 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On seasonal filters and monotonicity
    • Technical Report 2001:4, Department of Statistics, Göteborg University
    • Andersson, E. and Bock, D. (2001). On seasonal filters and monotonicity. Technical Report 2001:4, Department of Statistics, Göteborg University.
    • (2001)
    • Andersson, E.1    Bock, D.2
  • 7
    • 28444485072 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical surveillance of cyclical processes with application to turns in business cycles
    • Andersson, E., Bock, D. and Frisén, M. (2005) Statistical surveillance of cyclical processes with application to turns in business cycles. Journal of Forecasting, 24, 465-490.
    • (2005) Journal of Forecasting , vol.24 , pp. 465-490
    • Andersson, E.1    Bock, D.2    Frisén, M.3
  • 8
    • 33644998828 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Some statistical aspects on methods for detection of turning points in business cycles
    • Andersson, E., Bock, D. and Frisén, M. (2006). Some statistical aspects on methods for detection of turning points in business cycles. Journal of Applied Statistics, 33, 257-278.
    • (2006) Journal of Applied Statistics , vol.33 , pp. 257-278
    • Andersson, E.1    Bock, D.2    Frisén, M.3
  • 9
    • 0031508322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new look at optimal stopping problems related to mathematical finance
    • Beibel, M. and Lerche, H. R. (1997). A new look at optimal stopping problems related to mathematical finance. Statistica Sinica, 7, 93-108.
    • (1997) Statistica Sinica , vol.7 , pp. 93-108
    • Beibel, M.1    Lerche, H.R.2
  • 10
    • 34248483578 scopus 로고
    • The pricing of commodity contracts
    • Black, F. (1976). The pricing of commodity contracts. Journal of Financial Economics, 3,167-179.
    • (1976) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.3 , pp. 167-179
    • Black, F.1
  • 11
    • 33644991669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Detection of financial time series turning points: A new approach CUSUM applied to IPO cycles
    • Blondell, D., Hoang, H., Powell, J. G. and Shi, J. (2002). Detection of financial time series turning points: A new approach CUSUM applied to IPO cycles. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 18, 293-315.
    • (2002) Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting , vol.18 , pp. 293-315
    • Blondell, D.1    Hoang, H.2    Powell, J.G.3    Shi, J.4
  • 12
    • 44949274935 scopus 로고
    • Financial market forecasts and rates of return based on leading index signals
    • Boehm, E. A. and Moore, G. H. (1991). Financial market forecasts and rates of return based on leading index signals. International Journal of Forecasting, 7, 357-374.
    • (1991) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.7 , pp. 357-374
    • Boehm, E.A.1    Moore, G.H.2
  • 13
    • 84977707376 scopus 로고
    • Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns
    • Brock, W., Lakonishok, J. and LeBaron, B. (1992). Simple technical trading rules and the stochastic properties of stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47, 1731-1764.
    • (1992) Journal of Finance , vol.47 , pp. 1731-1764
    • Brock, W.1    Lakonishok, J.2    LeBaron, B.3
  • 14
    • 0031507877 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sign predictions of exchange rate changes: Charts as proxies for bayesian Inferences
    • Dewachter, H. (1997). Sign predictions of exchange rate changes: Charts as proxies for bayesian Inferences. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv-Review of World Economics, 133, 39-55.
    • (1997) Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv-Review of World Economics , vol.133 , pp. 39-55
    • Dewachter, H.1
  • 15
    • 0042829794 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can Markov switching models replicate chartist profits in the foreign exchange market?
    • Dewachter, H. (2001). Can Markov switching models replicate chartist profits in the foreign exchange market? Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 25-41.
    • (2001) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.20 , pp. 25-41
    • Dewachter, H.1
  • 16
    • 0039012102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Time and the price impact of a trade
    • Dufour, A. and Engle, R. F. (2000). Time and the price impact of a trade. Journal of Finance, 55, 2467-2498.
    • (2000) Journal of Finance , vol.55 , pp. 2467-2498
    • Dufour, A.1    Engle, R.F.2
  • 17
    • 84954333598 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear and nonparametric methods for analyzing financial time series
    • In eds. eds. P. Kall and H.-J. Luethi. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg
    • Franke, J. (1999). Nonlinear and nonparametric methods for analyzing financial time series. In Operation Research Proceedings 98, eds. P. Kall and H.-J. Luethi. Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg.
    • (1999) Operation Research Proceedings 98
    • Franke, J.1
  • 18
    • 0001352730 scopus 로고
    • Unimodal regression
    • Frisén, M. (1986). Unimodal regression. The Statistician, 35, 479-485.
    • (1986) The Statistician , vol.35 , pp. 479-485
    • Frisén, M.1
  • 19
    • 0026792952 scopus 로고
    • Evaluations of methods for statistical surveillance
    • Frisén, M. (1992). Evaluations of methods for statistical surveillance. Statistics in Medicine, 11, 1489-1502.
    • (1992) Statistics in Medicine , vol.11 , pp. 1489-1502
    • Frisén, M.1
  • 20
    • 0010327764 scopus 로고
    • Statistical surveillance of business cycles
    • Technical Report 1994:1 (Revised 2000), Department of Statistics, Göteborg University
    • Frisén, M. (1994). Statistical surveillance of business cycles. Technical Report 1994:1 (Revised 2000), Department of Statistics, Göteborg University.
    • (1994)
    • Frisén, M.1
  • 21
    • 0042360585 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical surveillance. Optimality and methods
    • Frisén, M. (2003). Statistical surveillance. Optimality and methods. International Statistical Review, 71, 403-434.
    • (2003) International Statistical Review , vol.71 , pp. 403-434
    • Frisén, M.1
  • 22
    • 0010405373 scopus 로고
    • Optimal surveillance
    • Frisén, M. and de Maré, J. (1991). Optimal surveillance. Biometrika, 78, 271-280.
    • (1991) Biometrika , vol.78 , pp. 271-280
    • Frisén, M.1    de Maré, J.2
  • 23
    • 34248195735 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal surveillance based on exponentially weighted moving averages
    • Frisén, M. and Sonesson, C. (2006). Optimal surveillance based on exponentially weighted moving averages. Sequential Analysis, 25, 379-403.
    • (2006) Sequential Analysis , vol.25 , pp. 379-403
    • Frisén, M.1    Sonesson, C.2
  • 24
  • 25
    • 0001342006 scopus 로고
    • A New approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle
    • Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57, 357-384.
    • (1989) Econometrica , vol.57 , pp. 357-384
    • Hamilton, J.D.1
  • 26
    • 0010061067 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles
    • Ivanova, D., Lahiri, K. and Seitz, F. (2000). Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles. International Journal of Forecasting, 16, 39-58.
    • (2000) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 39-58
    • Ivanova, D.1    Lahiri, K.2    Seitz, F.3
  • 28
    • 33748419898 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A note on Bayesian detection of change-points with an expected miss criterion
    • Karatzas, I. (2003). A note on Bayesian detection of change-points with an expected miss criterion. Statistics & decisions, 21, 3-13.
    • (2003) Statistics & decisions , vol.21 , pp. 3-13
    • Karatzas, I.1
  • 29
    • 0042045273 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Control charts for time series
    • Kramer, H. and Schmid, W. (1997). Control charts for time series. Nonlinear Analysis, 30, 4007-4016.
    • (1997) Nonlinear Analysis , vol.30 , pp. 4007-4016
    • Kramer, H.1    Schmid, W.2
  • 30
    • 0001300222 scopus 로고
    • Sequential changepoint detection in quality control and dynamic systems
    • Lai, T. L. (1995). Sequential changepoint detection in quality control and dynamic systems. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B, 57, 613-658.
    • (1995) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B , vol.57 , pp. 613-658
    • Lai, T.L.1
  • 31
    • 11244307476 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal stopping for Brownian motion with applications to sequential analysis and option pricing
    • Lai, T. L. and Lim, T. W. (2005). Optimal stopping for Brownian motion with applications to sequential analysis and option pricing. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 130, 21-47.
    • (2005) Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference , vol.130 , pp. 21-47
    • Lai, T.L.1    Lim, T.W.2
  • 33
    • 31644443900 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CUSUM techniques for technical trading in financial markets
    • Lam, K. and Yam, H. C. (1997). CUSUM techniques for technical trading in financial markets. Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets, 4, 257-274.
    • (1997) Financial Engineering and the Japanese Markets , vol.4 , pp. 257-274
    • Lam, K.1    Yam, H.C.2
  • 34
    • 0030239878 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dating and predicting phase changes in the US business cycle
    • Layton, A. P. (1996). Dating and predicting phase changes in the US business cycle. International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 417-428.
    • (1996) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.12 , pp. 417-428
    • Layton, A.P.1
  • 35
    • 0035125999 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new turning point signalling system using the Markov switching model with application to Japan, the USA and Australia
    • Layton, A. P. and Katsuura, M. (2001). A new turning point signalling system using the Markov switching model with application to Japan, the USA and Australia. Applied Economics, 33, 59-70.
    • (2001) Applied Economics , vol.33 , pp. 59-70
    • Layton, A.P.1    Katsuura, M.2
  • 36
    • 0005650578 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Foundations of technical analysis: Computational algorithms, statistical inference, and empirical implementation
    • Lo, A. W. (2000). Foundations of technical analysis: Computational algorithms, statistical inference, and empirical implementation. Journal of Finance, 55, 1705-1770.
    • (2000) Journal of Finance , vol.55 , pp. 1705-1770
    • Lo, A.W.1
  • 37
    • 1842713110 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • News arrival, jump dynamics, and volatility components for individual stock returns
    • Maheu, J. M. and McCurdy, T. H. (2004). News arrival, jump dynamics, and volatility components for individual stock returns. Journal of Finance, 59, 755-793.
    • (2004) Journal of Finance , vol.59 , pp. 755-793
    • Maheu, J.M.1    McCurdy, T.H.2
  • 38
    • 0009955839 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • High-frequency Markov switching models in the foreign exchange market
    • Marsh, I. W. (2000). High-frequency Markov switching models in the foreign exchange market. Journal of Forecasting, 19, 123-134.
    • (2000) Journal of Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 123-134
    • Marsh, I.W.1
  • 39
    • 34247361449 scopus 로고
    • Using economic indicators to reduce risk in stock-market investments
    • Moore, G. H., Boehm, E. A. and Banerji, A. (1994). Using economic indicators to reduce risk in stock-market investments. International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 405-417.
    • (1994) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.10 , pp. 405-417
    • Moore, G.H.1    Boehm, E.A.2    Banerji, A.3
  • 40
    • 0002492940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: A layman's guide
    • Neely, C. J. (1997). Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market: A layman's guide. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 79, 23-38.
    • (1997) The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review , vol.79 , pp. 23-38
    • Neely, C.J.1
  • 42
    • 0001048637 scopus 로고
    • Naive trading rules in financial-markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction-theory - A study of technical analysis
    • Neftci, S. N. (1991). Naive trading rules in financial-markets and Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction-theory - A study of technical analysis. Journal of Business, 64, 549-571.
    • (1991) Journal of Business , vol.64 , pp. 549-571
    • Neftci, S.N.1
  • 43
    • 0002916530 scopus 로고
    • Continuous inspection schemes
    • Page, E. S. (1954). Continuous inspection schemes. Biometrika, 41, 100-114.
    • (1954) Biometrika , vol.41 , pp. 100-114
    • Page, E.S.1
  • 44
    • 0010410814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of some methods for statistical surveillance of an autoregressive Process
    • Technical Report 1998:4, Department of Statistics, Göteborg University
    • Pettersson, M. (1998). Evaluation of some methods for statistical surveillance of an autoregressive Process. Technical Report 1998:4, Department of Statistics, Göteborg University.
    • (1998)
    • Pettersson, M.1
  • 45
    • 10944241761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Surveillance of longitudinal models. Detection of intrauterine growth retardation
    • Petzold, M., Sonesson, C., Bergman, E. and Kieler, H. (2004). Surveillance of longitudinal models. Detection of intrauterine growth retardation. Biometrics, 60, 1025-1033.
    • (2004) Biometrics , vol.60 , pp. 1025-1033
    • Petzold, M.1    Sonesson, C.2    Bergman, E.3    Kieler, H.4
  • 47
    • 84924169426 scopus 로고
    • A comparison of some control chart procedures
    • Roberts, S. W. (1966). A comparison of some control chart procedures. Technometrics, 8, 411-430.
    • (1966) Technometrics , vol.8 , pp. 411-430
    • Roberts, S.W.1
  • 48
    • 0036643511 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymptotic behavior of posterior distribution of the change-point parameter
    • Rukhin, A. L. (2002). Asymptotic behavior of posterior distribution of the change-point parameter. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 105, 327-345.
    • (2002) Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference , vol.105 , pp. 327-345
    • Rukhin, A.L.1
  • 50
    • 0035424335 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Control charts for GARCH processes
    • Schipper, S. and Schmid, W. (2001a). Control charts for GARCH processes. Nonlinear Analysis, 47, 2049-2060.
    • (2001) Nonlinear Analysis , vol.47 , pp. 2049-2060
    • Schipper, S.1    Schmid, W.2
  • 51
    • 19944419944 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sequential methods for detecting changes in the variance of economic time series
    • Schipper, S. and Schmid, W. (2001b). Sequential methods for detecting changes in the variance of economic time series. Sequential Analysis, 20, 235-262.
    • (2001) Sequential Analysis , vol.20 , pp. 235-262
    • Schipper, S.1    Schmid, W.2
  • 52
    • 84954321610 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tail behaviour of a general family of control charts
    • Schmid, W. and Okhrin, Y. (2003). Tail behaviour of a general family of control charts. Statistics & Decisions, 21, 79-92.
    • (2003) Statistics & Decisions , vol.21 , pp. 79-92
    • Schmid, W.1    Okhrin, Y.2
  • 53
    • 34248164199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical surveillance of the parameters of a one-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model
    • Schmid, W. and Tzotchev, D. (2004). Statistical surveillance of the parameters of a one-factor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model. Sequential Analysis, 23, 379-412.
    • (2004) Sequential Analysis , vol.23 , pp. 379-412
    • Schmid, W.1    Tzotchev, D.2
  • 54
    • 77951744380 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical process control and its application in finance. In
    • In eds. G. Bol, G. Nakhaeizadeh and C.-H. Vollmer. Physica Verlag, Heidelberg
    • Severin, T. and Schmid, W. (1998). Statistical process control and its application in finance. In Contributions to Economics: Risk Measurement, Econometrics and Neural Networks, eds. G. Bol, G. Nakhaeizadeh and C.-H. Vollmer. Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 83-104.
    • (1998) Contributions to Economics: Risk Measurement, Econometrics and Neural Networks , pp. 83-104
    • Severin, T.1    Schmid, W.2
  • 58
    • 33748439360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quickest detection problems in the technical analysis of financial data
    • In, eds. H. Geman, D. Madan, S. Pliska and T. Vorst. Springer-Verlag, Berlin
    • Shiryaev, A. N. (2002). Quickest detection problems in the technical analysis of financial data. In Mathematical Finance - Bachelier Congress 2000, eds. H. Geman, D. Madan, S. Pliska and T. Vorst. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
    • (2002) Mathematical Finance - Bachelier Congress 2000
    • Shiryaev, A.N.1
  • 59
    • 33847242699 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A remark on the quickest detection problems
    • Shiryaev, A. N. (2004). A remark on the quickest detection problems. Statistics & Decisions, 22, 79-82.
    • (2004) Statistics & Decisions , vol.22 , pp. 79-82
    • Shiryaev, A.N.1
  • 61
    • 14644417221 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monitoring the cross-covariances of a multivariate time series
    • Sliwa, P. and Schmid, W. (2005). Monitoring the cross-covariances of a multivariate time series. Metrika, 61, 89-115.
    • (2005) Metrika , vol.61 , pp. 89-115
    • Sliwa, P.1    Schmid, W.2
  • 62
    • 28044438482 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health
    • Sonesson, C. and Bock, D. (2003). A Review and discussion of prospective statistical surveillance in public health. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A, 166, 5-21.
    • (2003) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A , vol.166 , pp. 5-21
    • Sonesson, C.1    Bock, D.2
  • 63
    • 84889374685 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multivariate surveillance
    • in, eds. A. Lawson and K. Kleinman. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, New York
    • Sonesson, C. and Frisén, M. (2005). Multivariate surveillance. in Spatial Surveillance for Public Health, eds. A. Lawson and K. Kleinman. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, New York, pp. 169-186.
    • (2005) Spatial Surveillance for Public Health , pp. 169-186
    • Sonesson, C.1    Frisén, M.2
  • 64
    • 21144474527 scopus 로고
    • Comparison of EWMA, CUSUM and Shiryayev-Roberts procedures for detecting a shift in the mean
    • Srivastava, M. S. and Wu, Y. (1993). Comparison of EWMA, CUSUM and Shiryayev-Roberts procedures for detecting a shift in the mean. Annals of Statistics,21, 645-670.
    • (1993) Annals of Statistics , vol.21 , pp. 645-670
    • Srivastava, M.S.1    Wu, Y.2
  • 65
    • 0036666016 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonparametric monitoring of financial time series by jump-preserving control charts
    • Steland, A. (2002). Nonparametric monitoring of financial time series by jump-preserving control charts. Statistical Papers, Berlin, 43, 401-422.
    • (2002) Statistical Papers, Berlin , vol.43 , pp. 401-422
    • Steland, A.1
  • 66
    • 10044261752 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Jump-preserving monitoring of dependent time series using pilot estimators
    • Steland, A. (2003). Jump-preserving monitoring of dependent time series using pilot estimators. Statistics & Decisions, 21, 343-366.
    • (2003) Statistics & Decisions , vol.21 , pp. 343-366
    • Steland, A.1
  • 67
    • 15844384013 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal sequential kernel detection for dependent processes
    • Steland, A. (2005). Optimal sequential kernel detection for dependent processes. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 132, 131-147.
    • (2005) Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference , vol.132 , pp. 131-147
    • Steland, A.1
  • 68
    • 0000935002 scopus 로고
    • Beating the foreign exchange market
    • Sweeney, R. J. (1986). Beating the foreign exchange market. The Journal of Finance, 41, 163-182.
    • (1986) The Journal of Finance , vol.41 , pp. 163-182
    • Sweeney, R.J.1
  • 70
    • 84889394085 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Studies on the surveillance of univariate and multivariate processes
    • Doctoral Thesis, Göteborg University, Sweden, Department of Statistics
    • Wessman, P. (1999). Studies on the surveillance of univariate and multivariate processes. Doctoral Thesis, Göteborg University, Sweden, Department of Statistics.
    • (1999)
    • Wessman, P.1
  • 72
    • 0001941409 scopus 로고
    • Sequential signals of recessions and recovery
    • Zarnowitz, V. and Moore, G. H. (1982). Sequential signals of recessions and recovery. Journal of Business, 55, 57-85.
    • (1982) Journal of Business , vol.55 , pp. 57-85
    • Zarnowitz, V.1    Moore, G.H.2
  • 73
    • 0011247415 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration model with applications to financial transaction data
    • Zhang, M. Y., Russell, J. R. and Tsay, R. S. (2001). A nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration model with applications to financial transaction data. Journal of Econometrics, 104, 179-207.
    • (2001) Journal of Econometrics , vol.104 , pp. 179-207
    • Zhang, M.Y.1    Russell, J.R.2    Tsay, R.S.3


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.