A new turning point signalling system using the Markov switching model with application to Japan, the USA and Australia

Applied Economics

Volumn 33, Issue 1, 2001, Pages 59-70

  Layton, Allan P ^a   Katsuura, Masaki ^a,b  

^a QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Australia)

^b MEIJO UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BUSINESS CYCLE; ECONOMIC ACTIVITY; NATIONAL ECONOMY; SIGNALING;

AUSTRALIA; JAPAN; UNITED STATES;

EID: 0035125999     PISSN: 00036846     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00036840121698     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities
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4. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle
5. Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime
6. A quasi-Bayesian approach to estimating parameters for mixtures of normal distributions
7. Dating and predicting phase changes in the US business cycle
8. A new approach to dating and predicting Australian business cycle phase changes
9. Do leading indicators really predict Australian business cycle turning points?
10. A further test of the influence of leading indicators on the probability of US business phase shifts
11. A further note on the three phases of the US business cycle
12. Optical prediction of cyclical downturns
13. An international application of Neftci’s probability approach for signaling growth recession and recoveries using turning point indicators
14. Inventories and three phases of the business cycle
15. A probability model of the coincident economic indicators
16. A procedure for predicting recessions with leading indicators: Econometric issues and recent experience
17. Predicting turning points of a time series
18. Cyclical indicators: An evaluation and new leading indexes
19. New composite indexes of coincident and lagging indicators
20. Sequential signals of recession and recovery