Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 16, Issue 6, 2016, Pages 1715-1723

  Tao, Fulu ^a,c   Zhang, Zhao ^b   Zhang, Shuai ^a   Rötter, Reimund P ^c  

^a INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHIC SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES RESEARCH   (China)

^b BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY   (China)

^c FINNISH FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Finland)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Climate extremes; Drought; Impacts and vulnerability

Indexed keywords

EID: 84953377168     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-015-0920-0     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank AMG et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D05109. doi:10.1029/2005JD006290
2. Asseng S, Foster IAN, Turner NC (2011) The impact of temperature variability on wheat yields. Glob Change Biol 17:997–1012. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02262.x
3. Asseng S, Ewert F, Martre P, Rotter RP et al (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nat Clim Change 5:143–147. doi:10.1038/nclimate2470
4. Battisti DS, Naylor RL (2009) Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323:240–244. doi:10.1126/science.1164363
5. Challinor AJ, Wheeler TR, Craufurd PQ, Slingo JM (2005) Simulation of the impact of high temperature stress on annual crop yields. Agric For Meteorol 135:180–189. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.11.015
6. China Meteorological Administration (2009) Grade of chilling damage for rice and maize. Meteorological industry standard of People’s Republic of China (QX/T 101-2009). Beijing: China Meteorological Press. Delivered June 7, 2009, Implemented November 1, 2009
7. Coumou D, Rahmstorf S (2012) A decade of weather extremes. Nat Clim Change 2:491–496. doi:10.1038/nclimate1452
8. Craufurd PQ, Wheeler TR (2009) Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops. J Exp Bot 60:2529–2539. doi:10.1093/jxb/erp196
9. Fang S, Cammarano D, Zhou G, Tan K, Ren S (2015) Effects of increased day and night temperature with supplemental infrared heating on winter wheat growth in North China. Eur J Agron 64:67–77. doi:10.1016/j.eja.2014.12.012
10. Fu C, Wen G (1999) Variation of ecosystems over East Asia in association with seasonal, interannual and decadal monsoon climate variability. Clim Change 43:477–494. doi:10.1023/A:1005471600483
11. Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M, Alexander LV, Brönnimann S, Charabi Y, Dentener FJ, Dlugokencky EJ, Easterling DR, Kaplan A, Soden BJ, Thorne PW, Wild M, Zhai PM (2013) Observations: atmosphere and surface. In: Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY
12. Iizumi T, Sakuma H, Yokozawa M, Luo J, Challinor AJ, Brown ME, Sakurai G, Yamagata T (2013) Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production. Nat Clim Change 3:904–908. doi:10.1038/nclimate1945
13. Jagadish SVK, Craufurd PQ, Wheeler TR (2007) High temperature stress and spikelet fertility in rice (Oryza sativa L.). J Exp Bot 58:1627–1635. doi:10.1093/jxb/erm003
14. Ju H, van der Velde M, Lin E, Xiong W, Li Y (2013) The impacts of climate change on agricultural production systems in China. Clim Change 1–2:313–324. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0803-7
15. Li QX, Dong WJ (2009) Detection and adjustment of undocumented discontinuities in Chinese temperature series using a composite approach. Adv Atmos Sci 26:143–153. doi:10.1007/s00376-009-0143-8
16. Li Z, Yan ZW (2009) Homogenized daily mean/maximum/minimum temperature series for China from 1960–2008. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 2:237–243
17. Li Y, Xiong W, Hu W, Berry P, Ju H, Lin E, Wang W, Li K, Pan J (2015) Integrated assessment of China’s agricultural vulnerability to climate change: a multi-indicator approach. Clim Change 128:355–366. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1165-5
18. Liu B, Henderson M, Xu M, Zhang Y (2011) Observed changes in precipitation on the wettest days of the year in China, 1960–2000. Int J Clim 31:487–503. doi:10.1002/joc.2089
19. Liu Y, Yang X, Wang E, Xue C (2014) Climate and crop yields impacted by ENSO episodes on the North China Plain: 1956–2006. Reg Environ Change 14:49–59. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0455-1
20. Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333:616–620. doi:10.1126/science.1204531
21. Lobell DB, Sibley A, Ortiz-Monasterio JI (2012) Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India. Nat Clim Change 2:186–189. doi:10.1038/nclimate1356
22. Lobell DB, Hammer GL, McLean G, Messina C, Roberts MJ, Schlenker W (2013) The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States. Nat Clim Change 3:497–501. doi:10.1038/nclimate1832
23. Manton MJ, Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Hennessy KJ et al (2001) Trends in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961–1998. Int J Climatol 21:269–284. doi:10.1002/joc.610
24. Matsui T, Omasa K, Horie T (2000) High temperature at flowering inhibits swelling of pollen grains, a driving force for thecae dehiscence in rice (Oryza sativa L.). Plant Prod Sci 3:430–434
25. Porter JR, Xie L, Challinor AJ, Cochrane K, Howden SM, Iqbal MM, Lobell DB, Travasso MI (2014) Food security and food production systems. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, pp 485-533
26. Salinger MJ, Stigter CJ, Das HP (2000) Agrometeorological adaptation strategies to increasing climate variability and climate change. In: Sivakumar MVK, Stigter CJ, Rijks DA (eds) Agrometeorology in the twenty-first century needs and perspectives, vol 103, pp 167–184
27. Sánchez B, Rasmussen A, Porter JR (2014) Temperatures and the growth and development of maize and rice: a review. Glob Change Biol 20:408–417. doi:10.1111/gcb.12389
28. Shi W, Tao F (2014) Spatio-temporal distributions of climate disasters and the response of wheat yields in China from 1983 to 2008. Nat Hazards 74:569–583. doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1197-1
29. Shuai J, Zhang Z, Liu X, Chen Y, Wang P, Shi P (2013a) Increasing concentrations of aerosols offset the benefits of climate warming on rice yields during 1980–2008 in Jiangsu province, China. Reg Environ Change 13:287–297. doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0332-3
30. Shuai J, Zhang Z, Sun DZ, Tao F, Shi P (2013b) ENSO, climate variability and crop yields in China. Clim Res 58:133–148. doi:10.3354/cr01194
31. Tao F, Zhang Z (2013) Climate change, high temperature stress, rice productivity and water use in Eastern China: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 52:531–551. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0100.1
32. Tao F, Yokozawa M, Zhang Z, Hayashi Y, Grassl H, Fu C (2004) Variability in climatology and agricultural production variability in China in association with East Asian monsoon and El Niño Southern Oscillation. Clim Res 28:23–30. doi:10.3354/cr028023
33. Tao F, Zhang Z, Zhang S, Zhu Z, Shi W (2012) Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China. Clim Res 54:233–247. doi:10.3354/cr01131
34. Tao F, Zhang S, Zhang Z (2013) Changes in rice disasters across China in recent decades and the meteorological and agronomic causes. Reg Environ Change 13:743–759. doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0357-7
35. Tao F, Zhang Z, Zhang S, Rötter RP (2015) Heat stress impacts on wheat growth and yield were reduced in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain of China in the past three decades. Eur J Agron 71:44–52. doi:10.1016/j.eja.2015.08.003
36. Wang S, Huo Z, Guo J, Wang C (2005) Agrometeorological disaster risk management in China. In: Das HP, Sivakumar MVK, Motha RP (eds) Natural disasters and extreme events in agriculture. Springer, Heidelberg, pp 241–258
37. Wang P, Zhang Z, Song X, Chen Y, Wei X, Shi P, Tao F (2014) Temperature variations and rice yields in China: historical contributions and future trends. Clim Change 124:777–789. doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1136-x
38. Xiong W, Holman I, You L, Yang J, Wu W (2014) Impacts of observed growing-season warming trends since 1980 on crop yields in China. Reg Environ Change 14:7–16. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0418-6
39. Zhai PM, Zhang XB, Pan XH (2005) Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China. J Clim 18:1096–1108. doi:10.1175/JCLI-3318.1
40. Zhang T, Huang Y (2013) Estimating the impacts of warming trends on wheat and maize in China from 1980 to 2008 based on county level data. Int J Climatol 33:699–708. doi:10.1002/joc.3463
41. Zhang S, Tao F (2013) Modeling the response of rice phenology to climate change and variability in different climatic zones: comparisons of five models. Eur J Agron 45:165–176. doi:10.1016/j.eja.2012.10.005
42. Zhang J, Zhang J, Yao F, Men Y, Gao X (2013) Effects of free air temperature increasing on the rice growth and grain yield in Northeast China. Chin J Ecol 32:15–21
43. Zhang Z, Wang P, Chen Y, Zhang S, Tao F, Liu X (2014) Spatial pattern and decadal change of agro-meteorological disasters in the main wheat production area of China during 1991–2009. J Geogr Sci 24:387–396. doi:10.1007/s11442-014-1095-1
44. Zhang Z, Song X, Tao F, Zhang S, Shi W (2015) Climate trends and crop production in China at county scale, 1980–2008. Theory Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1343-4