Models of Migration: Observations and Judgements

International Migration in Europe: Data, Models and Estimates

Volumn , Issue , 2008, Pages 115-147

  Willekens, Frans ^a  

^a NETHERLANDS INTERDISCIPLINARY DEMOGRAPHIC INSTITUTE   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP); Continuous time multistate process; Empirical occurrence exposure rates or transition rates; Multistate survival analysis; Negative binomial variate; Origin destination migration flow model; Piecewise linear survival function; Polytomous random variable; Systematic and random factors; Transition data analysis (TDA)

Indexed keywords

ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS; CONTINUOUS TIME SYSTEMS;

ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP); MIGRATION FLOWS; MULTI-STATE; NEGATIVE BINOMIAL; POLYTOMOUS; RANDOM FACTORS; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS; SURVIVAL FUNCTION; TRANSITION DATA; TRANSITION RATES;

PIECEWISE LINEAR TECHNIQUES;

EID: 84952785304     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book    
DOI: 10.1002/9780470985557.ch6     Document Type: Chapter

References (76)

1. Agresti A. 1996. An introduction to categorical data analysis. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
2. Albert JH and Gupta AK. 1983. Estimation in contingency tables using prior information. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 45(1):60-69.
3. Andersen PJ, Borgan O, Gill RD and Keiding N. 1993. Statistical models based on counting processes. New York: Springer.
4. Aoki M. 1976. Optimal control and system theory in dynamic economic analysis. New York: North-Holland.
5. Armstrong JS and Collopy F. 1998. Integration of statistical methods for judgment for time series forecasting: principles and empirical research. In Forecasting with judgment. Wright G and Goodwin P, eds, pp. 269-293. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Available at http://design.cwru.edu/researchArticles/ForecastIntegration.pdf (accessed 7 September 2005).
6. Baydar N. 1983. Analysis of the temporal stability of migration in the context of multiregional forecasting. Working Paper no 38. Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute, Voorburg.
7. Bell M, Blake M, Boyle P, Duke-Williams O, Rees P, Stillwell J and Hugo G. 2002. Crossnational comparison of internal migration: issues and measures. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 165(3):435-464.
8. Berentsen WH and Cromley RG. 2005. Interstate migration flows in Germany since unification: temporal and spatial patterns. Eurasian Geography and Economics 46(3):185-201.
9. Blossfeld HP and Rohwer G. 2002. Techniques of event history modeling. New approaches to causal analysis, 2nd edn. Mawah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
10. Burch TK. 1999. Computer modelling of theory: explanation for the 21st century. Discussion Paper no. 99-4. Population Studies Center, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario.
11. Burch TK. 2003. Demography in a new key. A theory of population theory. Demographic Research 9(11):261-284.
12. Çinlar E. 1975. Introduction to stochastic processes. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
13. Congdon P. 2001. Bayesian statistical modelling. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
14. Cook T, Falchi P and Mariano R. 1984. An urban allocation model combining time series and analytic hierarchy methods. Management Science 30:198-208.
15. Cooke RM. 1991. Experts in uncertainty. Opinion and subjective probability in science. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
16. Courgeau D. 1973. Migrants et migrations. Population 28:95-128.
17. Courgeau D. 1982. Comparaison des migrations internes en France et aux Etats-Unis. Population 6:1184-1188.
18. De Mesnard L. 2004. Biproportional methods of structural change analysis: a typological survey. Economic Systems Research (16(2):205-230.
19. Director SW and Rohrer RA. 1972.Introduction to system theory. New York: McGraw-Hill.
20. Duke-Williams O and Blake M. 1999. Database fusion for the comparative study of migration data. Presented at the Fourth International Conference of Geocomputation, Fredricksburg, Virginia, 25-28 July. Available at http://www.geovista.psu.edu/sites/geocomp99/Gc99/068/gc_068.htm (accessed 10 September 2005).
21. Evans M, Hasting N and Peacock B. 2000. Statistical distributions, 3rd edn. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
22. George MV and Perreault J. 1992. Methods of external migration projections and forecasts. In National population forecasting in industrialized countries. Keilman N and Cruijsen H, eds, pp. 87-103. Amsterdam: Swets and Zeitlinger.
23. Hachen DS. 1988. The competing risk model. Sociological methods and research, 17(1): 21-54. Reprinted in Readings in population research methodology. Bogue DJ, Arriaga EE and Anderton DL, eds, pp. 21.85-21.101. Chicago: Social Development Center; and New York: UNFPA.
24. Harker PT. 1986. The use of expert judgments in predicting interregional migration patterns: an analytic hierarchy approach. Geographical Analysis 18(1):62-80.
25. Harris B. 1983. Positive and normative aspects of modelling large-scale social systems. In Systems analysis in urban policy-making and planning. Batty M and Hutchinson B, eds, pp. 475-490. New York: Plenum.
26. Jackson RW, Rogerson P, Plane D and O'Huallachain B. 1990. A causative matrix approach to interpreting structural change. Economic Systems Research 2(3):259-269.
27. Jörnsten KO, Larsson T, Lundgren JT and Migdalas A. 1990. An entropy model with variable target. Environment and Planning A 22(4):493-506.
28. Kitsul P and Philipov D. 1981. The one year/five year migration problem. In Advances in multiregional demography. Rogers A, ed. Research Report RR-81-6, pp. 1-33. Laxenburg: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
29. Knudsen DC. 1992. Generalizing Poisson regression: including a priori information using the method of offsets. Professional Geographer 44(2):202-208.
30. Kupiszewski M and Kupiszewska D. 2003. Internal migration component in subnational population projections in member states of the European Union. CEFMR Working Paper 2/2003. Central European Forum for Migration Research, Warsaw.
31. Lahr M. 2004. Biproportional techniques in input-output analysis: table updating and structural analysis. Economic Systems Research 16(22):115-134.
32. Ledent J. 1980. Multistate life tables: movement versus transition perspectives. Environment and Planning A 12:533-562
33. Long JF and Boertlein CG. 1981. Using migration measures having different intervals. Washington, DC: US Bureau of the Census.
34. McLachlan GJ and Krishnan T. 1997. The EM algorithm and extensions. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
35. Mueser P. 1989. The spatial structure of migration: an analysis of flows between states in the USA over three decades. Regional Studies 23(3):185-200.
36. Plane DA and Mulligan GF. 1997. Measuring spatial focusing in a migration system. Demography 34:251-262.
37. Plane DA and Rogerson PA. 1986. Dynamic flow modeling with inter-regional dependency effects: an application to structural change in the US migration system. Demography 23(1):91-104.
38. Pooler J. 1992. Spatial uncertainty and spatial dominance in interaction modelling: a theoretical perspective on spatial competition. Environment and Planning A 24(7):5-1008.
39. Rajulton F. 1999. LIFEHIST: Analysis of life histories: a state-space approach. Presented at the Workshop on Longitudinal Research in Social Science: A Canadian Focus. Windermere Manor, London, Ontario, 25-27 October.
40. Rees P and Willekens FJ. 1986. Data and accounts. In Migration and settlement: A multi- regional comparative study, Rogers A and Willekens FJ, eds, pp. 19-58. Dordrecht: Reidel.
41. Rogers A and Raymer J. 1998. The spatial focus of US interstate migration flows. International Journal of Population Geography 4:63-80.
42. Rogers A and Raymer J. 2001. Immigration and the regional demographics of the elderly population in the United States. The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 56(1):S44-S55.
43. Rogers A and Sweeney S. 1998. Measuring the spatial focus of migration patterns. Professional Geographer 50(2):232-242.
44. Rogers A and Willekens FJ. 1986. A short course on multiregional demography. In Migration and settlement: A multiregional comparative study. Rogers A and Willekens FJ, eds, pp. 355-384. Dordrecht: Reidel.
45. Rogers A, Willekens FJ and Raymer J. 2001. Modeling interregional migration flows: continuity and change. Mathematical Population Studies 9:231-263.
46. Rogers A, Willekens FJ and Raymer J. 2002a. Capturing the age and spatial structures of migration. Environment and Planning A 34:341-359.
47. Rogers A, Willekens FJ, Little K and Raymer J. 2002b. Describing migration spatial structure. Papers in Regional Science: Journal of the Regional Science Association International 81(1):29-48.
48. Rogers A, Willekens FJ and Raymer J. 2003a. Imposing age and spatial structures on inadequate migration flow data sets. The Professional Geographer 55(1):56-69.
49. Rogers A, Raymer J and Newbold KB. 2003b. Reconciling and translating migration data collected over time intervals of different widths. The Annals of Regional Science 37(4):581-601.
50. Rohwer G and Potter U. 1999. TDA user's manual. Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Fakultät für Sozialwissenschaften, Bochum, Germany.
51. Roy JR and Thill JC. 2004. Spatial interaction modelling. Papers in Regional Science 83(1):339-361.
52. Schoen R. 1988. Modeling multigroup populations. New York: Plenum Press.
53. Sen A and Smith T. 1995. Gravity models of spatial interaction behavior. Berlin: Springer.
54. Singer B and Spilerman S. 1979. Mathematical representations of development. theories. In Longitudinal research in the study of behavior and development. Nesselroade JR and Baltes PB, eds, pp. 155-177. New York: Academic Press.
55. Snickars F and Weibull JW. 1977. A minimum information principle. Theory and practice. Regional Science and Urban Economics 7:137-168.
56. Stillwell J. 2005. Inter-regional migration modeling: a review and assessment. Presented at the 45th Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Amsterdam, 23-27 August.
57. Stone R. 1961. Input-Output and national accounts. Organization for Economic Cooperation, Paris
58. Strang G. 1980. Linear algebra and its applications, 2nd edn. New York: Academic Press.
59. Taylor HE and Karlin S. 1998. An introduction to stochastic modeling, 3rd edn. San Diego: Academic Press.
60. Tinbergen J. 1981. The use of models: experiences and prospects. American Economic Review 71(6):17-29.
61. van de Kaa DJ. 1993. European migration at the end of history. European Review 1(1):87-108.
62. van der Gaag NE, van Imhoff E and van Wissen L. 2000. Internal migration scenarios and regional population projections for the European Union. International Journal of Population Geography 6:1-19.
63. van Imhoff E. 1990. The exponential multidimensional demographic projection model. Mathematical Population Studies 2(3):171-182.
64. van Imhoff E and Keilman N. 1991. LIPRO 2.0: An application of a dynamic demographic projection model to household structure in the Netherlands. Amsterdam: Sweets and Zeitlinger.
65. van Imhoff E, van Wissen L and Spiess K. 1994. Regional population projection in the countries of the European Economic Area. NIDI & CBGS Publication no. 31. Amsterdam: Swets & Zeitlinger.
66. van Imhoff E, van der Gaag N, van Wissen L and Rees P. 1997. The selection of internal migration models for European regions. International Journal of Population Geography 3:137-159.
67. van Wissen LJG, van der Gaag N, Rees P and Stillwell J. 2005. In search of a modelling strategy for projecting internal migration in European countries: demographic versus economic-geographical approaches. Presented at the 45th Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Amsterdam, 23-27 August. Available at http://www.feweb.vu.nl/ersa2005/final_chapters/787.pdf
68. Willekens FJ. 1980. Entropy, multiproportional adjustment and the analysis of contingency tables. Systemi Urbani 2:171-201.
69. Willekens FJ. 1982. Multidimensional population analysis with incomplete data. In Multidimensional mathematical demography. Land KC and Rogers A, eds, pp. 43-112. New York: Academic Press. Reprinted in Readings in population research methodology. Bogue DJ, Arriaga EE and Anderton DL, eds, pp. 22.49-22.82. Chicago: Social Development Center; and New York: UNFPA.
70. Willekens FJ. 1983. Log-linear modelling of spatial interaction. Papers of the Regional Science Association 52:187-205.
71. Willekens FJ. 1994. Monitoring international migration in Europe: towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources. European Journal of Population 10(1):1-42.
72. Willekens FJ. 1999. Modeling approaches to the indirect estimation of migration flows: from entropy to EM. Mathematical Population Studies 7(3):239-278.
73. Willekens FJ. 2001. Theoretical and technical orientations toward longitudinal research in the social sciences. Canadian Journal of Population 28(2):189-217. Revised version of The life course: models and analysis. In Population issues: An interdisciplinary focus. van Wissen LJG and Dykstra PA, eds, pp. 23-51. New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum.
74. Willekens FJ and Drewe P. 1984. A multiregional model for regional demographic projection. In Demographic research and spatial policy. ter Heide H and Willekens FJ, eds, pp. 309-334. London: Academic Press.
75. Wilson T and Bell M. 2004. Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections. Journal of Population Research 21(2):127-160.
76. Yamaguchi K. 1991. Event history analysis. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.