Sea-level rise impacts on transport infrastructure: The notorious case of the coastal railway line at Dawlish, England

Journal of Transport Geography

Volumn 51, Issue , 2016, Pages 97-109

  Dawson, David ^a   Shaw, Jon ^b   Roland Gehrels, W ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF PLYMOUTH   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF YORK   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Economic impact; Rail network; Resilience; Semi empirical

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; COASTAL ZONE; ECONOMIC IMPACT; FUTURE PROSPECT; MAINTENANCE; RAILWAY TRANSPORT; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE; TRANSPORTATION PLANNING;

DAWLISH; ENGLAND; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84949665000     PISSN: 09666923     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2015.11.009     Document Type: Article

References (110)

1. Adger W.N., Arnell N.W., Tompkins E.L. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change 2005, 15:77-86.
2. Alexander L.V., Tett S.F.B., Jonsson T. Recent observed changes in severe storms over the United Kingdom. Geophysical Research Letters 2005, 32.
3. Allan R., Tett S., Alexander L. Fluctuations in autumn-winter severe storms over the British Isles: 1920 to present. International Journal of Climatology 2009, 29:357-371.
4. Arns A., Wahl T., Haigh I.D., Jensen J., Pattiaratchi C. Estimating extreme water level probabilities: A comparison of the direct methods and recommendations for best practise. Coastal Engineering 2013, 81:51-66.
5. Banister D., Schwanen T., Anable J. Introduction to the special section on theoretical perspectives on climate change mitigation in transport. Journal of Transport Geography 2012, 24:467-470.
6. Bittermann K., Rahmstorf S., Perrette M., Vermeer M. Predictability of twentieth century sea-level rise from past data. Environmental Research Letters 2013, 8:014013. 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014013.
7. Bosello F., De Cian E. Climate change, sea level rise, and coastal disasters. A review of modelling practices. Energy Econ. 2014, 46:593-605.
8. BBC Tidal surge hits east UK coastal towns after storm (Accessed on 08/01/14). http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25253080.
9. BBC Millions paid to delayed South East rail passengers (Accessed on 08/01/14). http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25452424.
10. Burningham, R. and Phillips, J. (2014) West of Exeter Resilience Study-an alternative approach. Unpublished report, available from the Devon and Cornwall Rail Partnership. mailto:r.burningham@plymouth.ac.uk.
11. Challinor A.J., Ewert F., Arnold S., Simelton E., Fraser E. Crops and climate change: Progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. Journal of Experimental Botany 2009, 60(10):2775-2789.
12. Chapman L. Transport and climate change: A review. Journal of Transport Geography 2007, 7:354-367.
13. Church J.A., White N.J., Thorkild A., Wilson S., Woodworth P.L., Domingues C.M., Hunter J.R., Lambeck K. Understanding global sea levels: Past, present and future. Sustainability Science 2008, 3:9-22.
14. Church J.A., Clark P.U., Cazenave A., Gregory J.M., Jevrejeva S., Levermann A., Merrifield M.A., Milne G.A., Nerem R.S., Nunn P.D., Payne A.J., Pfeffer W.T., Stammer D., Unnikrishnan A.S., Qin D. Sea level change. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. T.F. Stocker, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, P.M. Midgley (Eds.).
15. Clinnick R. The railway's wall against the waves. Rail 2009, 626:48-55.
16. Clinnick R. Cost of Dawlish diversion could reach £3.1bn-NR. Rail 2014, 753:6-93.
17. Dawson, D.A. (2012) The impact of future sea-level rise on the London-Penzance railway line. Unpublished PhD Thesis, University of Plymouth.
18. Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Making space for water: Taking forward a new government strategy for flood and coastal erosion risk management in England. Making Space for Water Consultation Exercise 2005, First Government Response to the Autumn 2004, DEFRA, London.
19. Department for Transport Winter resilience in transport: An assessment of the case for additional investment 2011, DfT, London, (57 pp).
20. Department for Transport Transport resilience review: A review of the resilience of the transport network to extreme weather 2014, DfT, London, (161 pp).
21. Department for Transport Transport analysis guidance: WebTAG Available at, (Accessed 14/11/14). https://www.gov.uk/transport-analysis-guidance-webtag.
22. Dixon M.J., Tawn J.A. A semi-parametric 2011 model for multivariate extreme values. Statistics and Computing 1995, 5:215-225.
23. Eddington R. The Eddington transport study: Transport's roles in sustaining the UK's productivity and competitiveness 2006, HM Treasury, London.
24. Environment Agency The state of the environment of England and Wales: Coasts 1999, The Stationery Office, London.
25. European Environment Agency Adaptation of transport to climate change in Europe: Challenges and options across transport modes and stakeholders. Report No 8/2014, Copenhagen, Denmark 2014, (ISSN: 1977-8449).
26. Feser F., Barcikowska M., Krueger O., Schenk F., Weisse R., Xia L. Storminess over the North Atlantic and northwestern Europe-a review. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2015, 141:350-382.
27. Fletcher S. Stakeholder representation and the democratic basis of coastal partnerships in the UK. Marine Policy 2003, 27:229-240.
28. Fletcher S. Influences on stakeholder representation in participatory coastal management programmes. Ocean Coast. Manag. 2007, 50:314-328.
29. French P.W. The changing nature of, and approaches to, UK coastal management at the start of the 21st century. The Geographical Journal 2004, 170:116-125.
30. Gehrels W.R. Sea-level rise and coastal subsidence in southwest England. Transactions of the Devonshire Association for the Advancement of Science 2006, 138:25-42.
31. Gehrels W.R., Dawson D.A., Shaw J., Marshall W.A. Using Holocene relative sea-level data to inform future sea-level predictions: An example from southwest England. Global and Planetary Change 2011, 78:116-126.
32. Gourvish T. British Rail, 1974-97: From integration to privatisation 2002, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
33. Gourvish T. Britain's railways, 1997-2005: Labour's strategic experiment 2008, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
34. Grinsted A., Moore J.C., Jevrejeva S. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD. Climate Dynamics 2010, 34:461-472. 10.1007/s00382-008-0507-2.
35. Haigh I.D., Nicholls R., Wells N. Mean sea level trends around the English Channel over the 20th century and their wider context. Continental Shelf Research 2009, 29:2083-2098.
36. Haigh I.D., Nicholls R., Wells N. A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels. Coastal Engineering 2010, 57:838-849.
37. Haigh I.D., Nicholls R., Wells N. Rising sea levels in the English Channel 1900 to 2100. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Maritime. Engineering 2011, 164:81-92.
38. Hall J.W., Sayers P.B., Walkden M.J.A., Panzeri I. Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 2006, 364:1027-1049.
39. Hanna E., Cappelen J., Allan R., Jonsson T., Le Blancq F., Lillington T., Hickey K. New insights into north European and North Atlantic surface pressure variability, storminess, and related climate change since 1830. Journal of Climate 2008, 21:6739-6766.
40. Heberger M., Cooley H., Herrera P., Gleick P.H., Moore E. The impacts of sea-level rise on the California coast 2009, Prepared for the, California Climate Change Center, (May 2009, CEC-500-2009-024-F).
41. Highways Agency Climate change risk assessment Available at, (Accessed 14/11/14). http://www.highways.gov.uk/publications/climate-change-mitigation/.
42. HM Government Climate resilient infrastructure: Preparing for a changing climate Presented to Parliament by the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs by Command of Her Majesty, May 2011. Downloaded at. http://www.official-documents.gov.uk.
43. HM Treasury National Infrastructure Plan 2013 2013, HM Treasury, London.
44. Hogg M. Coping with a soggy railway 2014, (Powerpoint presentation for First Great Western. Available with permission from corresponding author).
45. Hooper E., Chapman L. The impacts of climate change on national road and rail networks. Transport and climate change 2012, 105-136. Bingley, Emerald. T. Ryley, L. Chapman (Eds.).
46. House of Commons Flooding: Support for businesses Available at, (Accessed on 29/10/14). http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm140306/debtext/140306-0001.htm.
47. House of Commons Transport's winter resilience Available at, (Accessed on 14/11/14). http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/transport-committee/inquiries/parliament-2010/winter-weather/.
48. House of Commons Committee holds fourth evidence session on investing in the railway. House of Commons Transport Committee, 27 October, 2014 Available at:, (Accessed 14/11/14). http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/transport-committee/news/investing-railway-ev4/.
49. Hulme M., Jenkins G.J., Lu X., Turnpenny J.R., Mitchell T.D., Jones R.G., Lowe J., Murphy J.M., Hassell D., Boorman P., McDonald R., Hill S. Climate change scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report 2002, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK, 120 pp.
50. Huntingford C., Marsh T., Scaife A.a., Kendon E.J., Hannaford J., Kay A.L., Lockwood M., Prudhomme C., Reynard N.S., Parry S., Lowe J.a., Screen J.a., Ward H.C., Roberts M., Stott P.a., Bell V.a., Bailey M., Jenkins A., Legg T., Otto F.E.L., Massey N., Schaller N., Slingo J., Allen M.R. Potential influences on the United Kingdom's floods of winter 2013/14. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2014, 4:769-777. 10.1038/nclimate2314.
51. The Institute of Civil Engineers The State of the Nation Briefing Sheet-South west. Defending Critical Infrastructure 2009, ICE, London.
52. Italferr Conventional Line Projects: Adriatic Route Available at, (Accessed on 29/10/2014). http://www.italferr.it/cms/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=475907660aeda110VgnVCM1000003f16f90aRCRD.
53. Jacob K., Gornitz V., Rosenzweig C. Vulnerability of the New York City Metropolitan Area to Coastal Hazards, including sea-level rise: Inferences for urban coastal risk management and adaptation policies. Managing Coastal Vulnerability 2007, Elsevier Publishing, Oxford. L. McFadden, R. Nicholls, E. Penning-Rowsell (Eds.).
54. Jaroszweski D., Chapman L., Petts J. Assessing the potential impact of climate change on transportation: The need for an interdisciplinary approach. J. Transp. Geogr. 2010, 18:331-335.
55. Jaroszweski D., McNamara T. The influence of rainfall on road accidents in urban areas: A weather radar approach. Travel Behav. Soc. 2014, 1:15-21.
56. Kay P. Exeter-Newton Abbot: A Railway History 1993, Platform 5, Sheffield.
57. Koetse M.J., Rietveld P. The impact of climate change and weather on transport: an overview of empirical findings. Transp. Res. Part D: Transp. Environ. 2009, 14(3):205-221.
58. Lakshmanan T.R. The broader economic consequences of transport infrastructure investments. J. Transp. Geogr. 2011, 19:1-12.
59. Lowe J.A., Howard T.P., Pardaens A., Tinker J., Holt J., Wakelin S., Milne G., Leake J., Wolf J., Horsburgh K., Reeder T., Jenkins G., Ridley J., Dye S., Bradley S. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Marine and Coastal Projections 2009, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.
60. Marsden G. Will it be 'all change' on the railways after Dawlish? More likely just the usual service. The Conversation 26 February 2014. Available at, (Accessed 25/05/14). http://theconversation.com/will-it-be-all-change-on-the-railways-after-dawlish-more-likely-just-the-usual-service-23701.
61. Marsden G., Docherty I. Insights on disruptions as opportunities for transport policy. Transp. Res. A 2013, 51:46-55.
62. Metcalf G., Chambers F., Charlesworth A., Forrest V., Hunt J., McEwen L., Russell K., Schofield S. Warming to the Idea, Technical Report, South West Region Climate Change Impacts Scoping Study, Cheltenham, UK 2003.
63. Metroeconomica Costing the impacts of climate change in the UK: Overview of guidelines. UKCIP Technical Report 2004, UKCIP, Oxford.
64. Metz R. The myth of travel time saving. Transp. Rev. 2008, 28:321-336.
65. The Mirror (2002) Wavy Line. The Mirror. (October 10, 15).
66. National Audit Office Reducing passenger rail delays by better management of incidents (Accessed 20 November 2014). http://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/0708308.pdf.
67. National Oceanographic Centre UK real-time data, Immingham/Lowestoft, 5-6th December 2013. National tide and sea-level facility 2014, National Oceanographic Centre, (Available at http://www.ntslf.org/data/uk-network-real-time. Accessed on 29/10/14).
68. Network Rail Dawlish Sea Wall: Adverse Weather Operations Protocol Network Rail, London 2009, (Supplied by personal communication with NR, available from the corresponding author).
69. Network Rail CP5 activity and Expenditure Plans: maintenance Activity and Expenditure. SBPT222, Version 0.14 2013, 1-27.
70. Network Rail Weather and climate change resilience: how our routes are mitigating the impact of weather and climate change to maintain an efficient service Available at, (Accessed on 14/11/14). http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/weather-and-climate-change-resilience/.
71. Network Rail Dawlish Railway information Available at, (Accessed on 10/04/2014). https://www.networkrail.co.uk/timetables-and-travel/storm-damage/dawlish/.
72. Network Rail West of Exeter Route Resilience Study Available at, (Accessed on 14/11/14). http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/weather-and-climate-change-resilience/west-of-exeter-route-resilience-study/.
73. Network Rail Gallery (Accessed 09/12/14). http://www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk/imagelibrary/default.aspx?NewsAreaId=28&MediaFilter=1.
74. Network Rail Route weather resilience and climate adaptation plans, western route WRCCA plan (42 pp). Available at, (Accessed on 14/11/14). http://www.networkrail.co.uk/publications/weather-and-climate-change-resilience/.
75. Network Rail Harbury tunnel landslip (Accessed 18 June 2015). http://www.networkrail.co.uk/HarburyLandslip/.
76. Nicholls R.J., Wong P.P., Burkett V., Woodroffe C.D., Hay J. Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: scenarios for integrated assessment. Sustain. Sci. 2008, 3:89-102.
77. Nicholls R.J., Townend I.H., Bradbury A.P., Ramsbottom D., Day S.A. Planning for long-term coastal change: experiences from England and Wales. Ocean Eng. 2013, 71:3-16.
78. O'Breasail B., Corgordan F., Gibson J.R., Fiadizigbey E. Impact of climate change on coastal rail infrastructure. Prepared for Rail Safety Standards Board (RSSB) 2007, Mouchel Parkman, Surrey.
79. O'Riordan T., Watkinson A., Milligan J. Living with a changing coastline: exploring new form of governance for sustainable coastal futures. Technical Report 49 2006, (Available at: http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/tr49.pdf Accessed on 14/11/14).
80. Office of Rail Regulation Draft determination of Network Rail's outputs and funding for 2014-19 2013, ORR, London.
81. Permanent service for mean sea level. Tide gauge data. Available at: (Accessed on 29/10/2014). http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/:.
82. Plymouth Chambers of Commerce & Industry (PCCI) Survey results highlight impact of travel disruption for SW businesses Available from, (Accessed on 9/06/14). http://www.plymouth-chamber.co.uk/News/news-story.cfm?story=320.
83. Plymouth City Council New peninsula rail task force sets out priorities Available at, (Accessed on 29/10/2014). http://www.plymouth.gov.uk/newsreleases?newsid%3D308861.
84. Pullen T., Allsop N., Bruce T., Kortenhaus A., Schüttrumpf H., van der Meer J. EurOtop-wave overtopping of sea defences and related structures: assessment manual Available at, (Accessed on 14/11/14). http://www.overtopping-manual.com/eurotop.pdf.
85. Rahmstorf S. A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 2007, 315:368.
86. Railtrack The Dawlish Sea Wall: What's New? Service Information Series, Winter 96 1996, Railtrack Great Western, Swindon.
87. Rail Safety and Standards Board Tomorrow's railway and climate change adaptation: T925 Research Brief Available at, (Accessed on 29/10/14). http://www.rssb.co.uk/library/research-development-and-innovation/research-brief-T925.pdf.
88. Rogers J., O'Breasail B. Frontage Management Strategy, Dawlish to Teignmouth Seawall 2006, Mouchel Parkman, Surrey.
89. Ryley T., Chapman L. Transport and Climate Change 2012, Bingley, Emerald.
90. Seneviratne S.I., Nicholls R., Easterling C.M., Goodess S., Kanae J., Kossin Y., Luo J., Marengo K., McInnes M., Rahimi M., Reichstein A., Sorteberg C.V., Zhang X. Changes in Climate Extremes and Their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation 2012, 109-230. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). C.B. Field, V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, P.M. Midgley (Eds.).
91. Shaw J., Docherty I. The Transport Debate 2014, Policy Press, Bristol.
92. Shennan I., Horton B. Holocene land- and sea-level changes in Great Britain. J. Quat. Sci. 2002, 17:511-526.
93. Slingo J., Belcher S., Scaife A., McCarthy M., Saulter A., McBeath K., Jenkins A., Huntingford C., Marsh T., Hannaford J., Parry S. The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK 2014, 1-27. Met Office, Exeter.
94. Suarez P., Anderson W., Mahal V., Lakshmanan T.R. Impacts of flooding and climate change on urban transportation: a systemwide performance assessment of the Boston metro area. Transp. Res. Part D: Transp. Environ. 2005, 10(3):231-244.
95. The Times (1846) Regional News. October 13. The Times. London, 5.
96. The Times (2004) Waves take trains by storm, The times, October 28, London, 15.
97. Titus J. Does Sea Level Rise Matter to Transportation Along the Atlantic Coast?. Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting: The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation. Federal Research Partnership Workshop October 1-2, 2002 2002, Department of Transportation, Washington DC, USA.
98. Turner R.K., Burgess D., Hadley D., Coombes E., Jackson N. A cost-benefit appraisal of coastal managed realignment policy. Glob. Environ. Chang.-Human Policy Dimens. 2007, 17:397-407.
99. de la Vega-Leinert A.C., Nicholls R.J. Potential implications of sea-level rise for Great Britain. J. Coast. Res. 2008, 24:342-357.
100. Vermeer M., Rahmstorf S. Global sea level linked to global temperature. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 2009, 106:21527-21532. 10.1073/pnas.0907765106.
101. Wadey M., Haigh I., Brown J. A century of sea level data and the UK's 2013/14 storm surges: an assessment of extremes and clustering using the Newlyn tide gauge record. Ocean Sci. Discuss. 2014, 11:1995-2028.
102. Wenban-Smith A. Where's the evidence that time savings from new roads deliver tangible economic benefits?. Transport Times 2010, (19 March, 18).
103. Western Morning News Huge seas, torrential rail bring havoc to Westcountry 1974, February 12, 9, Plymouth Library Archives, Devon.
104. Williams H.E., Briganti R., Pullen T. The role of offshore boundary conditions in the uncertainty of numerical prediction of wave overtopping using non-linear shallow water equations. Coast. Eng. 2014, 89:30-44.
105. Woodworth P.L. Trends in U.K. mean sea level. Mar. Geod. 1987, 11:57-87.
106. Woodworth P.L., Blackman D.L. Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970s. J. Clim. 2004, 17:1190-1197.
107. Woodworth P.L., White N.J., Jevrejeva S., Holgate S.J., Church J.A., Gehrels W.R. Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi-decade and century timescales. Int. J. Climatol. 2009, 29:777-789.
108. Wöppelmann G., Pouvreau N., Coulomb A., Simon B., Woodworth P.L. Tide gauge datum continuity at Brest since 1711: France's longest sea-level record. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2008, 35.
109. Zimmerman R. Global climate change and transportation infrastructure: lessons from the New York area. Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting: The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation. Federal Research Partnership Workshopn 1-2, 2002 2002, Department of Transportation, Washington DC, USA.
110. Zong Y., Tooley M.J. A historical record of coastal floods in Britain: frequencies and associated storm tracks. Nat. Hazards 2003, 29(1):13-36.