A comparison of the main methods for estimating probabilities of extreme still water levels

Coastal Engineering

Volumn 57, Issue 9, 2010, Pages 838-849

  Haigh, Ivan D ^a,b   Nicholls, Robert ^b   Wells, Neil ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; English Channel; Extreme value theory; Floods; Mean sea level

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL MAXIMA; DATA RANGES; DIRECT METHOD; ENGLISH CHANNEL; EXTREME VALUE THEORY; JOINT PROBABILITY METHOD; LONG-TERM TREND; MEAN SEA LEVEL; PREDICTION ERRORS; RETURN LEVEL; RETURN PERIODS; STILL WATER LEVELS; TIDAL VARIATIONS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ERRORS; FLOODS; SEA LEVEL; WATER LEVELS; WIND EFFECTS;

PROBABILITY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; FLOOD; LONG-TERM CHANGE; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; SEA LEVEL; WATER LEVEL;

ENGLISH CHANNEL;

EID: 77953810572     PISSN: 03783839     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.04.002     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Bell C., Vassie J.M., Woodworth P.L. The Tidal Analysis Software Kit (TASK Package). Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Internal Document 1996, (www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/training/).
2. Butler A., Heffernan J.E., Tawn J.A., Flather R.A., Horsburgh K.J. Extreme value analysis of long-term variations in storm surges. Journal of Marine Systems 2007, 67:189-200.
3. Coles S. An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values 2001, Springer, (207pp.).
4. Coles S.G., Tawn J.A. Statistics of coastal flood prevention. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society London 1990, A332:457-476.
5. Coles S.G., Tawn J.A. Modelling extreme multivariate events. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 1991, B53(2):377-392.
6. Coles S., Tawn J. Bayesian modelling of extreme surges on the UK east Coast. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 2005, A363(1831):1387-1406.
7. Davidson A.C., Smith R.L. Models for exceedances over high thresholds. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 1990, B52(3):393-442.
8. Dixon M.J., Tawn J.A. Extreme sea-levels at the UK A-class sites: site-by-site analysis. POL Internal Document Number 65 1994, (http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf/pdf/id65.pdf).
9. Dixon M.J., Tawn J.A. Extreme sea-levels at the UK A-class sites: optimal site-by-site analysis and spatial analyses for the East Coast. POL Internal Document Number 72 1995, (http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf/pdf/id72.pdf).
10. Dixon M.J., Tawn J.A. Estimates of extreme sea conditions - final report, spatial analysis for the UK coast. POL Internal Document Number 112 1997, (http://www.pol.ac.uk/ntslf/pdf/id112.pdf).
11. Dixon M.J., Tawn J.A. The effect of non-stationary on extreme sea-level estimation. Applied Statistics 1999, 48(2):135-151.
12. Dixon M.J., Tawn J.A., Vassie J.M. Spatial modelling of extreme sea-levels. Environmetrics 1998, 9:283-301.
13. Douglas B.C. Global sea level rise. Journal of Geophysical Research 1991, 96(C4):6981-6992.
14. Evans E.P., Ashley R., Hall J.W., Penning-Rowsell E.C., Saul A., Sayers P.B., Thorne C.R., Watkinson A. Foresight flood and coastal defence project: scientific summary. Future risks and their drivers 2004, vol. 1. Office of Science and Technology, London.
15. Flather R.A., Smith J.A., Richards J.D., Bell C., Blackman D.L. Direct estimates of extreme storm surge elevations from a 40-year numerical model simulation and from observations. The Global Atmosphere and Ocean Systems 1998, 6:165-176.
16. Gumbel E.J. Statistics of Extremes 1958, Columbia University Press, New York, 375pp.
17. Haigh I.D., Nicholls R.J., Wells N.C. Mean sea-level trends around the English Channel over the 20th century and their wider context. Continental Shelf Research 2009, 29(17):2083-2098.
18. Haigh I., Nicholls R., Wells N. Assessing changes in extreme sea levels: Application to the English Channel, 1900-2006. Continental Shelf Research 2010, 30:1042-1055.
19. Hamon B.V., Middleton J.F. Return periods of extreme sea levels: the exceedance probability method. International Hydrographic Review 1989, 66(2):165-177.
20. Heaps N.S. Storm surges, 1967-1982. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 1983, 74:331-376.
21. Horsburgh K.L., Wilson C. Tide-surge interaction and its role in the distribution of surge residuals in the North Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research 2007, 112:CO8003.
22. IOC, 2006. Manual on sea level measurement and interpretation, volume IV: An update to 2006. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission Manuals and Guides. Number 14. IOC, Paris, 88 pp. (). http://www.pol.ac.uk/psmsl/manuals/manual_14_final_21_09_06.pdf.
23. Jenkinson A.F. The frequency distribution of annual maximum (or minimum) values of meteorological elements. Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society 1953, 81:158-172.
24. Lennon G.W. A frequency investigation of abnormally high tidal levels at certain west coast ports. Proceedings of the Institution Civil Engineers 1963, 25:451-484.
25. The Big Flood: North Sea storm surge. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 2005, A363 (1831):1263-1370. A. McRobie, T. Spencer, H. Gerritsen (Eds.).
26. Meehl G.A., Stocker T.F., Collins W.D., Friedlingstein P., Gaye A.T., Gregory J.M., Kitoh A., Knutti R., Murphy J.M., Noda A., Raper S.C.B., Watterson I.G., Weaver A.J., Zhao Z.-C. Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 747-845. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
27. Middleton J.F., Thompson K.R. Return periods of extreme sea levels from short records. Journal of Geophysical Research 1986, 91(C10):11707-11716.
28. NERC Flood Studies Report 1975, Natural Environment Research Council, London (five volumes).
29. Pirazzoli P.A., Tomasin A. Estimation of return periods for extreme sea levels: a simplified empirical correction of the joint probabilities method with examples from the French Atlantic coast and three points in the southwest of the UK. Ocean Dynamics 2007, 57:91-107.
30. Prandle D., Wolf J. The interaction of surge and tide in the North Sea and River Thames. Geophysical Journal Royal Astronomical Society 1978, 55:203-216.
31. Pugh D.J. Tides, Surges and Mean Sea-Level 1987, A handbook for engineers and scientists, Wiley, Chichester, 472pp.
32. Pugh D.J., Vassie J.M. Extreme sea-levels from tide and surge probability. Proceedings of the Sixteenth Coastal Engineering Conference, Hamburg, German, 27 Aug-3 Sep 1978. American Society of Civil Engineers. New York 1979, 1:911-930.
33. Pugh D.J., Vassie J.M. Applications of the joint probability method for extreme sea-level computations. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers Part 1980, 2(69):959-975.
34. Rossiter J.R. Interaction between tide and surge in the Thames. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society 1961, 6:29-53.
35. Shennan I., Milne G., Bradley S.L. Late Holocene relative land- and sea-level changes: providing information for stakeholders. GSA Today 2009, 19.
36. Smith R.L. Extreme value theory based on the r largest annual events. Journal of Hydrology 1986, 86:27-43.
37. Suthons C.T. Frequency of occurrence of abnormally high sea levels on the east and south coasts of England. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers 1963, 25:433-450.
38. Swift R. Extreme water levels - an interregional comparison. ABPmer Internal Report Number R1058 2003.
39. Tawn J.A. An extreme value theory model for dependent observations. Journal of Hydrology 1988, 101:227-250.
40. Tawn J.A. Bivariate extreme value theory: models and estimation. Biometrika 1988, 75:397-415.
41. Tawn, J.A., 1988c. Extreme value theory with oceanographic applications. PhD thesis, University of Surrey, United Kingdom.
42. Tawn J.A. Estimating probabilities of extreme sea-levels. Applied Statistics 1992, 41:77-93.
43. Tawn J.A., Vassie J.M. Extreme sea-levels: the joint probabilities method revisited and revised. Proceedings of the Institute of Civil Engineering Part 1989, 2(87):249-442.
44. Tawn J.A., Vassie J.M. Recent improvements in the joint probability method for estimating extreme sea-levels. Tidal Hydrodynamics 1991, 813-828. Wiley, New York. B.B. Parker (Ed.).
45. Tsimplis M.N., Marcos M., Pérez B., Challenor P., Garcia-Fernandez M.J., Raicich F. On the effect of the sampling frequency of sea level measurements on return period estimate of extremes - Southern European examples. Continental Shelf Research 2009, 29(18):2214-2221.
46. Walden A.T., Prescott P., Webber N.B. An alternative approach to the joint probability method for extreme high sea level computations. Coastal Engineering 1982, 6:71-82.
47. Woodworth P.L., Blackman D.L. Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970s. Journal of Climate 2004, 17(6):1190-1197.