Modeling temporal variations in global residential energy consumption and pollutant emissions

Applied Energy

Volumn 184, Issue , 2016, Pages 820-829

  Chen, Han ^a   Huang, Ye ^a   Shen, Huizhong ^a   Chen, Yilin ^a   Ru, Muye ^a   Chen, Yuanchen ^a   Lin, Nan ^a   Su, Shu ^a   Zhuo, Shaojie ^a   Zhong, Qirui ^a   Wang, Xilong ^a   Liu, Junfeng ^a   Li, Bengang ^a   Tao, Shu ^a  

^a PEKING UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Climate warming; Emissions; Pollutants; Regression modeling; Residential energy; Seasonality

Indexed keywords

AIR POLLUTION; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GASES; HOUSING; PARTICULATE EMISSIONS; POLLUTION; POPULATION STATISTICS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SULFUR DIOXIDE;

CLIMATE WARMING; POLLUTANTS; REGRESSION MODEL; RESIDENTIAL ENERGY; SEASONALITY;

ENERGY UTILIZATION;

CLIMATE CHANGE; EMISSION; EMISSION INVENTORY; ENERGY USE; FUEL CONSUMPTION; POLLUTANT; RESIDENTIAL ENERGY; SEASONALITY; SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS; TEMPORAL VARIATION; URBANIZATION; WARMING;

EID: 84947969489     PISSN: 03062619     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.10.185     Document Type: Article

References (91)

1. [1] ECE (Economic Commission for Europe). Residential heating with wood and coal: health impacts and policy options in Europe and North America. Working group of the joint task force on the health aspects of air pollution. Economic and Social Council, United Nations; 2014.
2. [2] Kannan, R., Strachan, N., Modelling the UK residential energy sector under long-term decarbonisation scenarios: comparison between energy systems and sectoral modelling approaches. Appl Energy 86 (2009), 416–428.
3. [3] Fikru, M.G., Gautier, L., The impact of weather variation on energy consumption in residential houses. Appl Energy 144 (2015), 19–30.
4. [4] Zhu, D., Tao, S., Wang, R., Shen, H.Z., Huang, Y., Shen, G.F., et al. Temporal and spatial trends of residential energy consumption and air pollutant emissions in China. Appl Energy 106 (2013), 17–24.
5. [5] IEA (International Energy Agency). World Energy Statistics and Balances (2014 edition) < http://data.iea.org/ieastore/product.asp?dept_id=101&pf_id=205> [accessed on 13.02.14].
6. [6] DECC (Department of Energy & Climate Change). Energy Consumption in the UK (2014), chapter 3: Domestic energy consumption in the UK between 1970 and 2013. London, United Kingdom; 2014.
7. [7] EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). State Energy Data System (SEDS), 1960-2012 (Complete). < http://www.eia.gov/state/seds/seds-data-complete.cfm?sid=US> [accessed on 15.03.14].
8. [8] Lin, W.B., Chen, B., Luo, S.C., Liang, L., Factor analysis of residential energy consumption at the provincial level in china. Sustainability 6 (2014), 7710–7724.
9. [9] Wang, R., Tao, S., Shen, H.Z., Huang, Y., Chen, H., Balkanski, Y., et al. Trend in global black carbon emissions from 1960 to 2007. Environ Sci Technol 48 (2014), 6780–6787.
10. [10] Shen, H.Z., Huang, Y., Wang, R., Zhu, D., Li, W., Shen, G.F., et al. Global atmospheric emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from 1960 to 2008 and future predictions. Environ Sci Technol 47 (2013), 6415–6424.
11. [11] Huang, Y., Shen, H.Z., Chen, H., Wang, R., Zhang, Y.Y., Su, S., et al. Quantification of global primary emissions of PM2.5, PM10, and TSP from combustion and industrial process sources. Environ Sci Technol 48 (2014), 13834–13843.
12. [12] IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change). In: Expert Meeting on Uncertainty and Validation of Emission Inventories. Utrecht, the Netherlands; March 23–25, 2010.
13. [13] Andres, R.J., Gregg, J.S., Losey, L., Marland, G., Boden, T.A., Monthly, global emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel consumption. Tellus 63B (2011), 309–327.
14. [14] EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). International Energy Statistics. < http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm> [accessed on 04.03.15].
15. [15] UN data. MBS (Monthly Bulletin of Statistics Online). < http://unstats.un.org/unsd/mbs/app/DataSearchTable.aspx> [accessed on 04.03.15].
16. [16] IEA (International Energy Agency). Monthly Oil/Electricity/Gas Data Service; 2015 < http://www.iea.org/statistics/mods/> [accessed on 05.07.14].
17. [17] Clark, M.L., Peel, J.L., Balakrishnan, K., Breysse, P.N., Chillrud, S.N., Naeher, L.P., et al. Health and household air pollution from solid fuel use: the need for improved exposure assessment. Environ Health Perspect 121 (2013), 1120–1128.
18. 2 emission fluxes for the United States. Environ Sci Technol 43 (2009), 5535–5541.
19. [19] Blasing TJ, Broniak CT, Marland G. Estimates of annual fossil-fuel CO2 emitted for each state in the U.S.A. and the district of Columbia for each year from 1960 through 2001. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, U.S.A. 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/00003.
20. 2. J Geophys Res, 113, 2008, G01023, 10.1029/2007JG000435.
21. [21] Petrick S, Rehdanz K, Richard SJT. The impact of temperature changes on residential energy consumption. Kiel Working Paper No. 1618. Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany; 2010.
22. [22] Labanderia, X., Labeaga, J.M., Rodriguez, M., A residential energy demand system for Spain. The MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR), Massachusetts, USA. Energy J (IAEE) 27 (2006), 87–111.
23. [23] Alberini, A., Gans, W., Velez-Lopez, D., Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the U.S.: The role of prices and income. Energy Econ 33 (2011), 870–881.
24. [24] Wangpattarapong, k., Maneewan, S., Ketjoy, N., Rakwichian, W., The impacts of climatic and economic factors on residential electricity consumption of Bangkok Metropolis. Energy Buildings 40 (2008), 1419–1425.
25. [25] Kialashaki, A., Reisel, J.R., Modeling of the energy demand of the residential sector in the United States using regression models and artificial neural networks. Appl Energy 108 (2013), 271–280.
26. [26] ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics). Household Energy Consumption Survey, Australia: Summary of Results, 2012; 2013. < http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/4670.0> [accessed on 08.03.15].
27. [27] Hosgör, E., Fischbeck, P.S., Predicting residential energy and water demand using publicly available data. Energy Convers Manage 10 (2015), 106–117.
28. [28] Shimoda, Y., Yamaguchi, Y., Okamura, T., Taniguchi, A., Yamaguchi, Y., Prediction of greenhouse gas reduction potential in Japanese residential sector by residential energy end-use model. Appl Energy 87 (2010), 1944–1952.
29. [29] Olofsson, T., Mahlia, T.M.I., Modeling and simulation of the energy use in an occupied residential building in cold climate. Appl Energy 91 (2012), 432–438.
30. [30] Bigano A, Bosello F, Marano G. Energy demand and temperature: a dynamic panel analysis. Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei Working Paper No. 112.06. Italy; 2006.
31. [31] De Cian E, Lanzi E, Roson R. The impact of temperature change on energy demand: a dynamic panel analysis. FEEM Working Paper No. 46.2007. Italy; April 2007.
32. [32] Isaac, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. Energy Policy 37 (2009), 507–521.
33. [33] MNP (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency). D-S.1 Preliminary ADAM scenarios (deliverable for the ADAM project); 2007.
34. [34] National Bureau of Statistics and National Energy Administration. China Energy Statistical Yearbook, 1996–2009; China Statistics Press: Beijing; 1997–2010.
35. [35] Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics. Australian Energy Statistics Data. < http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/publications/display?url=http://143.188.17.20/anrdl/DAFFService/display.php?fid=pe_abares99010610_12c.xml> [accessed on 13.02.15]).
36. [36] Natural Resources Canada. Comprehensive Energy Use Database, 1990-2011. < http://oee.nrcan.gc.ca/corporate/statistics/neud/dpa/menus/trends/comprehensive_tables/list.cfm> [accessed on 13.02.15].
37. [37] EEA (European Environment Agency). Heating Degree Days. < http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/heating-degree-days-1> [accessed on 13.02.15].
38. [38] Blazquez L, Boogen N, Filippini M. Residential electricity demand for Spain: new empirical evidence using aggregated data; CEPE Working Paper No. 82. Center for Energy Policy and Economics, Zürichbergstrasse, Switzerland; 2012.
39. [39] Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven, D., Gandin, L., et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year reanalysis project. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77 (1996), 437–471.
40. [40] ORNL (Oak Ridge National Laboratory). LandScan Global Population Database. < http://www.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/> [accessed on 13.02.15].
41. [41] The World Bank. World Development Indicators; 2014. < http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators> [accessed on 13.02.15].
42. [42] BEA (U. S. Bureau of Economic Analysis). Per Capita Personal Income by State, 1990–2011. < http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm> [accessed on 13.02.15].
43. [43] National Bureau of Statistics of China. China statistical yearbook 1994–2008. China Statistics Press: Beijing, 1995–2009.
44. [44] Australian Bureau of Statistics. Australian National Accounts: State Accounts. < http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/5220.02010-11> (released at November 23, 2011). [accessed on 23.03.15].
45. [45] Statistics Canada. Provincial and Territorial Economic Accounts; Data Tables, catalogue number 13-018-X. < http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/13-018-x/2011001/t/tab1801-eng.htm> [accessed on 23.03.15].
46. [46] IEA (International Energy Agency). IEA Energy Prices and Taxes Statistics; 2014. < http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/data/end-use-prices/energy-prices-in-us-dollars_data-00442-en?isPartOf=/content/datacollection/ene-pric-data-en/> [accessed on 23.03.15].
47. [47] Eurostat. Gas and electricity prices, 1985-2012. < http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nrg_pc_204&lang=en> [accessed on 23.03.15].
48. [48] U. S. Census Bureau. National and State Housing Unit Estimates, 2010-2012. < https://www.census.gov/popest/data/housing/totals/2012/index.html> [accessed on 23.03.15].
49. [49] DECC (Department of Energy & Climate Change). Sub-national electricity sales and numbers of customers 2005-2011. < https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/sub-national-electricity-consumption-data> [accessed on 11.04.15].
50. [50] Tsuji K, Saeki O, Suzuhigashi A, Sano F, Ueno T. An end-use energy demand monitoring project for estimating the potential of energy savings in the residential sector. ACEEE (American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy), Washington, D.C.; 1998. < http://www.eceee.org/library/conference_proceedings/ACEEE_buildings/2000/Panel_2/p2_2> [accessed on 26.03.15].
51. [51] Proof of Concept Residential Energy Monitoring Program: Final Report. A whole house metering ‘proof of concept’ project. Melbourne, Australia; March 2012.
52. [52] RTE (Réseau de Transport d'Electricité). Electrical Energy Statistics for France 2009; 2010. < http://www.rte-france.com/uploads/Mediatheque_docs/vie_systeme/annuelles/Statistiques_energie_electrique/an/statistiques_annuelles_2010_an.pdf> [accessed on 26.03.15].
53. [53] Houri, A., Korfali, S.I., Residential energy consumption patterns: the case of Lebanon. Int J Energy Res 29 (2005), 755–766.
54. [54] Kucukbahar D. Modeling monthly electricity demand in Turkey for 1990–2006. A thesis submitted to Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences of Middle East Technical University. (Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Gülser Köksal); 2008.
55. [55] Nahata, B., Izyumov, A., Busygin, V., Mishura, A., Application of Ramsey model in transition economy: a Russia case study. Energy Econ 29 (2005), 105–125.
56. [56] Davaki M. Analysis of energy use in typical Greek residential buildings and proposed retrofit strategies. A thesis presented to high performance building in the School of Architecture in Georgia Institute of Technology. (Advisor: Dr Gentry TR); 2011.
57. [57] Qin, F., Liu, H.Y., Jing, L., Liu, W., Yin, J., Wei, X.D., The investigation of energy consumption in the village of Jilin province. J Jilin Architect Civil Eng Ins 24 (2007), 37–40 [in Chinese].
58. [58] U.S. Energy Information Administration. Monthly Energy Review. < http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/previous.cfm> [accessed on 26.03.15].
59. [59] Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, et al. IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) Special report on emission scenarios; Nakicenovic N, Swart R Eds.; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 2000; 608.
60. [60] CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network). Country level GDP and downscaled projections based on the SRES A1, A2, B1, and B2 scenarios 1990–2100. CIESIN, New York, USA; 2002. < http://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/datasets/downscaled/> [accessed on 26.03.15].
61. [61] Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. IPCC DDC AR4 (IPCC Data Distribution Centre: Assessment Report Four data sets) GFDL-CM2.1; 2005. < http://www.ipcc-data.org/sim/gcm_monthly/SRES_AR4/index.html> [accessed on 26.03.15].
62. [62] European Commission. Energy roadmap 2050; 2011. < http://ec.europa.eu/energy/energy2050/roadmap/index_en.htm> [accessed on 26.03.15].
63. [63] Alfsen, K.H., Bjart, H., PPP correction of the IPCC emission scenarios: does it matter?. Climatic Change 68 (2005), 11–19.
64. [64] van der Werf, G.R., Randerson, J.T., Giglio, L., Collatz, G.J., Mu, M., Kasibhatla, P.S., et al. Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmos Chem Phys 10 (2010), 11707–11735.
65. [65] CIESIN (Center for International Earth Science Information Network). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scenarios 1992 (IS92); A to F, Digital Version 1.1; William JP, Xing XS, Robert S, Richard HM Eds. New York, USA; 2005. < http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/ddc> [accessed on 26.03.15].
66. [66] Eom JL, Clarke LE, Kim SH. China's building energy use: a long-term perspective based on a detailed assessment; PNNL (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Richland: Washington D.C.; 2012.
67. [67] Bhattacharyya, S.C., Influence of India's transformation on residential energy demand. Appl Energy 1434 (2015), 228–237.
68. [68] Dzioubinski, O., Chipman, R., Trends in consumption and production: household energy consumption. 1999, DESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs), New York: USA.
69. [69] Lin, B., Jiang, Z., Estimating of energy subsidies in China and impact of energy subsidy reform. Energy Econ 33 (2010), 273–283.
70. [70] Grubler AX, Bai T, Buettner S, Dhakal DJ, Fisk T, Ichinose JE, et al. Chapter 18—Urban Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment – Toward a Sustainable Future, 1307–1400; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK and New York. IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis), Luxemburg, Austria, 2012.
71. [71] Holtedahl, P., Joutz, F.L., Residential electricity demand in Taiwan. Energy Econ 26 (2003), 201–224.
72. [72] Fell H, Li S, Paul A. A new look at residential electricity demand using household expenditure data; Working Paper 2012-04; Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado; July 2012.
73. [73] Dergiades, T., Tsoulfidis, L., Estimating residential demand for electricity in the United States, 1965–2006. Energy Econ 30 (2008), 2722–2730.
74. [74] Fumo, N., Biswas Rafe, M.A., Regression analysis for prediction of residential energy consumption. Renew Sust Energy Rev 47 (2015), 332–343.
75. [75] Dawit, Diriba Guta, Application of an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) to Ethiopian rural residential energy use: panel data evidence. Energy Policy 50 (2012), 528–539.
76. [76] Baland, J., Das, S.B., Mookherjee, D., Sarkar, R., The environmental impact of poverty: evidence from firewood collection in rural Nepal. 2007, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi.
77. [77] Sivak, M., Air conditioning versus heating: climate control is more energy demanding in Minneapolis than in Miami. Environ Res Lett, 8, 2013, 014050.
78. [78] Craig J. Australia homes are biggest in the world. Economic insights. CommSec, New South Wales; 2009. < http://images.comsec.com.au/ipo/UploadedImages/craigjames3f6189175551497fada1a4769f74d09c.pdf> [accessed on 18.04.15].
79. [79] Statistics Canada. Households and the Environment Survey: Energy Use Supplement; 2007. < http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-526-s/2010001/ct001-eng.htm> [accessed on 18.06.15].
80. [80] Sidorenko A. Chapter 16 Electricity in Russia. In: APEC Policy Support Unit, the impacts and benefits of structural reforms in transport, energy and telecommunications sectors, APEC; 2011.< http://publications.apec.org/publication-detail.php?pub_id=1113> [accessed on 18.08.13].
81. [81] Lapillonne B, Pollier K, Samci N. Energy efficiency trends for households in the EU. Report of Enerdata, Odyssey Energy; 2014.
82. [82] Nekrasov, A.S., Voronina, S.A., Semikashev, V.V., Problems of residential heat supply in Russia. Stud Russ Econ Dev 23 (2012), 128–134.
83. [83] Lam, J.C., Tang, H.L., Li, D.H.W., Seasonal variations in residential and commercial sector electricity consumption in Hong Kong. Energy 33 (2008), 513–523.
84. [84] Hadke A, Abhyankar N, Shah N. Avoiding 100 new power plants by increasing efficiency of room air conditioners in India: opportunities and challenges (LBNL-6674). Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California; 2014.
85. [85] Park, M.S., Joo, J.S., Park, S.U., Carbon dioxide concentration and flux in an urban residential area in Seoul. Korea. Adv Atmos Sci 31 (2014), 1101–1112.
86. [86] Lu, Z., Zhang, Q., Streets, D.G., Sulfur dioxide and primary carbonaceous aerosol emissions in China and India, 1996–2010. Atmos Chem Phys 11 (2011), 9839–9864.
87. [87] Streets, D.G., Bond, T.C., Carmichael, G.R., Fernandes, S.D., Fu, Q., He, D., An in ventory of gaseous and primary aerosol emissions in Asia in the year 2000. J Geophys Res, 108, 2003, 10.1029/2002JD00309 D21, 8809.
88. [88] Nezhad H. World energy scenarios to 2050: Issues and options. State University of Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; 2009.
89. [89] Jylhä, K., Jokisalo, J., Ruosteenoja, K., Pilli-Sihvola, K., Kalamees, T., Seitola, T., Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate. Energy Buildings 99 (2015), 104–116.
90. [90] Wang, H.J., Chen, Q.Y., Impact of climate change heating and cooling energy use in buildings in the United States. Energy Buildings 82 (2014), 428–436.
91. [91] Wilbanks, T., Leiby, P., Perlack, R., Ensminger, J.T., Wright, S.B., Toward an integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation: some preliminary findings. Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change 12 (2007), 713–725.