Rapid systematic assessment of the detection and attribution of regional anthropogenic climate change

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 47, Issue 5-6, 2016, Pages 1399-1415

  Stone, Dáithí A ^a   Hansen, Gerrit ^b  

^a LAWRENCE BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^b POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Attribution; Climate change; Detection

Indexed keywords

ASSESSMENT METHOD; CLIMATE CHANGE; DETECTION METHOD; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RADIATIVE FORCING; REGIONAL CLIMATE;

EID: 84947752585     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2909-2     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Allen MR, Stott PA (2003) Estimating signal amplitudes in optical fingerprinting, part I: theory. Clim Dyn 21:477–491
2. Allen MR, Tett SFB (1999) Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Clim Dyn 15:419–434
3. Angélil O, Stone DA, Tadross M, Tummon F, Wehner M, Knutti R (2014) Attribution of extreme weather to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions: sensitivity to spatial and temporal scales. Geophys Res Lett 41:2150–2155. doi:10.1002/2014GL059234
4. Bhend J (2015) Regional evidence of global warming. In: BACC II Author Team (ed) Second assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea basin, Regional Climate Studies. Springer, pp 427–439. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1_23
5. Bindoff NL, Stott PA, AchutaRao KM, Allen MR, Gillett N, Gutzler D, Hansingo K, Hegerl G, Hu Y, Jain S, Mokhov II, Overland J, Perlwitz J, Sebbari R, Zhang X, et al (2013) Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate Change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp 867–952
6. Chen M, Xie P, Janowiak JE, Arkin PA (2002) Global land precipitation: a 50-yr monthly analysis based on gauge observations. J Hydrometeorol 3:249–266
7. Chervin RM, Schneider SH (1976) On determining the statistical significance of climate experiments with general circulation models. J Atmos Sci 33:405–412
8. Chervin RM, Gates WL, Schneider SH (1974) The effect of time averaging on the noise level of climatological statistics generated by atmospheric general circulation models. J Atmos Sci 31:2216–2219
9. Christidis N, Stott PA, Zwiers FW, Shiogama H, Nozawa T (2010) Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature: a multi-scale attribution analysis. Clim Dyn 34:1139–1156
10. Christidis N, Stott PA, Zwiers FW, Shiogama H, Nozawa T (2012) The contribution of anthropogenic forcings to regional changes in temperature during the last decade. Clim Dyn 39:1259–1274
11. Cramer W, Yohe GW, Auffhammer M, Huggel C, Molau U, da Silva Dias MAF, Solow A, Stone DA, Tibig L, et al (2014) Detection and attribution of observed impacts. In: Field CB, Barros VR, et al (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: global and sectoral aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp 979–1037
12. Flato G, Marotzke J, Abiodun B, Braconnot P, Chou SC, Collins W, Cox P, Driouech F, Emori S, Eyring V, Forest C, Gleckler P, Guilyardi E, Jakob C, Kattsov V, Reason C, Rummukainen M, et al (2013) Evaluation of climate models. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp 741–866
13. Gillett NP, Allan RJ, Ansell TJ (2005) Detection of external influence on sea level pressure with a multi-model ensemble. Geophys Res Lett 32:L19714. doi:10.1029/2005GL023640
14. Hannart A, Ribes A, Naveau P (2014) Optimal fingerprinting under multiple sources of uncertainty. Geophys Res Lett 41:1261–1268. doi:10.1002/2013GL058653
15. Hansen G, Stone DA (2015) Attributing observed climate change impacts to human influence. Nat Clim Change (in press)
16. Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, Lo K (2010) Global surface temperature change. Rev Geophys 48:RG4004. doi:10.1029/2010RG000345
17. Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Lister DH (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations—the CRU TS3.10 dataset. Int J Climatol 34:623–642
18. Hasselmann K (1979) On the signal-to-noise problem in atmospheric response studies. In: Shaw DB (ed) Meteorology of tropical oceans. Royal Meteorological Society of London, London, pp 251–259
19. Hegerl G, Zwiers F (2011) Use of models in detection and attribution of climate change. WIREs Clim Change 2:570–591
20. Hegerl GC, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Casassa G, Hoerling MP, Kovats RS, Parmesan C, Pierce DW, Stott PA (2010) Good practice guidance paper on detection and attribution related to anthropogenic climate change. In: Stocker TF, Field CB, Qin D, Barros V, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Midgley PM, Ebi KL (eds) Meeting report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change expert meeting on detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change. IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
21. Hewitson B, Janetos AC, Carter TR, Giorgi F, Jones RG, Kwon WT, Mearns LO, Schipper ELF (2014) Regional context. In: Barros VR, Field CB, et al (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp 1133–1197
22. Hurrell JW, Hack JJ, Shea D, Caron JM, Rosinski J (2008) A new sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model. J Clim 21:5145–5153
23. James R, Otto F, Parker H, Boyd E, Cornforth R, Mitchell D, Allen M (2014) Characterizing loss and damage from climate change. Nat Clim Change 4:938–939
24. Jones GS, Stott PA (2011) Sensitivity of the attribution of near surface temperature warming to the choice of observational dataset. Geophys Res Lett 38:L21702. doi:10.1029/2011GL049324
25. Jones GS, Stott PA, Christidis N (2013) Attribution of observed historical near-surface temperature variations to anthropogenic and natural causes using CMIP5 simulations. J Geophys Res 118:4001–4024. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50239
26. Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR (1997) Sampling errors in large-scale temperature averages. J Clim 10:2548–2568
27. Jun M, Knutti R, Nychka DW (2008) Spatial analysis to quantify numerical model bias and dependence: how many climate models are there. J Am Stat Assoc 103:934–947
28. Karoly DJ, Wu Q (2005) Detection of regional surface temperature trends. J Clim 18:4337–4343
29. Kennedy JJ, Rayner NA, Smith RO, Saunby M, Parker DE (2011a) Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea-surface temperature observations since 1850 part 1: measurement and sampling errors. J Geophys Res 116:D14103. doi:10.1029/2010JD015218
30. Kennedy JJ, Rayner NA, Smith RO, Saunby M, Parker DE (2011b) Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea-surface temperature observations since 1850 part 2: biases and homogenisation. J Geophys Res 116:D14104. doi:10.1029/2010JD015220
31. Mahlstein I, Knutti R, Solomon S, Portmann RW (2011) Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries. Environ Res Lett 6:034009
32. Mastrandrea MD, Field CB, Stocker TF, Edenhofer O, Ebi KL, Frame DJ, Held H, Kriegler E, Mach KJ, Matschoss PR, Plattner GK, Yohe GW, Zwiers FW (2010) Guidance note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). http://www.ipcc.ch
33. Matsuura K, Willmott CJ (2012) Terrestrial air temperature and precipitation: 1900–2010 gridded monthly time series (v3.01). Tech. rep., University of Delaware. http://climate.geog.udel.edu/~climate/html_pages/Global2011/index.html
34. New M, Hulme M, Jones P (2000) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part II: development of 1901–96 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate. J Clim 13:2217–2238
35. Niang I, Ruppel OC, Abdrabo MA, Essel A, Lennard C, Padgham J, Urquhart P, et al (2014) Africa. In: Barros VR, Field CB, et al (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, pp 1199–1265
36. Pennell C, Reichler T (2010) On the effective number of climate models. J Clim 24:2358–2367
37. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J Geophys Res 108:4407. doi:10.1029/2002JD002670
38. Reynolds RW, Smith TM (1994) Improved global sea surface temperature analysis using optimum interpolation. J Clim 7:929–948
39. Santer BD, Taylor KE, Gleckler P, Bonfils C, Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Wigley TML, Mears C, Wentz FJ, Brüggemann W, Gillett NP, Klein SA, Solomon S, Stott PA, Wehner MF (2009) Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:14778–14783
40. Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M, Rudolf B (2014) GPCC’s new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor Appl Climatol 115:15–40
41. Seneviratne SI, Nicholls N, Easterling D, Goodess CM, Kanae S, Kossin J, Luo Y, Marengo J, McInnes K, Rahimi M, Reichstein M, Sorteberg A, Vera C, Zhang X et al (2012) Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner GK, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 109–230
42. Shiogama H, Stone DA, Nagashima T, Nozawa T, Emori S (2012) On the linear additivity of climate forcing-response relationships at global and continental scales. Int J Climatol 33:2542–2550
43. Stone D, Auffhammer M, Carey M, Hansen G, Huggel C, Cramer W, Lobell D, Molau U, Solow A, Tibig L, Yohe G (2013) The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems. Clim Change 121:381–395
44. Stott PA, Allen MR, Christidis N, Dole R, Hoerling M, Huntingford C, Pall P, Perlwitz J, Stone DA (2013) Attribution of weather and climate-related extreme events. In: Asrar GR, Hurrell JW (eds) Climate science for serving society: research, modelling and prediction priorities. Springer, Berlin, pp 307–337
45. Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498
46. Wigley TML, Barnett TP et al (1990) Detection of the greenhouse effect in the observations. In: Houghton JT, Jenkins GJ, Ephraums JJ (eds) Climate change. The IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 241–255
47. World Meteorological Organization (2014) Annex to the implementation plan of the global framework for climate services—climate services information system component. Switzerland, Geneva