Probabilistic forecasts of snow water equivalent and runoff in mountainous areas

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Volumn 16, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 2169-2186

  Jörg Hess, Stefanie ^a   Griessinger, Nena ^b   Zappa, Massimiliano ^a  

^a SWISS FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE WSL   (Switzerland)

^b WSL INSTITUTE FOR SNOW AND AVALANCHE RESEARCH SLF   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Ensembles; Hindcasts; Hydrologic models; Model evaluation performance; Model initialization; Probability forecasts models distribution

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; HINDCASTING; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; MOUNTAIN STREAM; PROBABILITY; RUNOFF; SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT; WEATHER FORECASTING;

SWITZERLAND; THUR RIVER [SWITZERLAND];

EID: 84947582659     PISSN: 1525755X     EISSN: 15257541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0193.1     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Addor, N., S. Jaun, F. Fundel, and M. Zappa, 2011: An operational hydrological ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): Skill, case studies and scenarios. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2327-2347, doi:10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011.
2. Andreadis, K. M., and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2006: Assimilating remotely sensed snow observations into a macroscale hydrology model. Adv. Water Resour., 29, 872-886, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.08.004.
3. Aubert, D., C. Loumagne, and L. Oudin, 2003: Sequential assimilation of soil moisture and streamflow data in a conceptual rainfall-runoff model. J. Hydrol., 280, 145-161, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00229-4.
4. Begert, M., T. Schlegel, and W. Kirchhofer, 2005: Homogeneous temperature and precipitation series of Switzerland from 1864 to 2000. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 65-80, doi:10.1002/joc.1118.
5. Bernhard, L., and M. Zappa, 2012: Schlussbericht CCHydrologie: Natürlicher Wasserhaushalt der Schweiz und ihrer bedeutendsten Grosseinzugsgebiete. WSL Tech. Rep., 84 pp.
6. Blanc, P., and B. Schaedler, 2014: Water in Switzerland-An overview. Swiss Hydrological Commission Rep., 28 pp.
7. Brocca, L., F. Melone, T. Moramarco, W. Wagner, V. Naeimi, Z. Bartalis, and S. Hasenauer, 2010: Improving runoff prediction through the assimilation of the ASCAT soil moisture product. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1881-1893, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1881-2010.
8. Clark, M. P., A. G. Slater, A. P. Barrett, L. E. Hay, G. J. McCabe, B. Rajagopalan, and G. H. Leavesley, 2006: Assimilation of snow covered area information into hydrologic and land-surface models. Adv. Water Resour., 29, 1209-1221, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2005.10.001.
9. Cloke, H.L., and F. Pappenberger, 2009: Ensemble flood forecasting:A review. J. Hydrol., 375, 613-626, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005.
10. Dale, M., J. Wicks, K. Mylne, F. Pappenberger, S. Laeger, and S. Taylor, 2014: Probabilistic flood forecasting and decision-making: An innovative risk-based approach. Nat. Hazards, 70, 159-172, doi:10.1007/s11069-012-0483-z.
11. Demargne, J., and Coauthors, 2014: The science of NOAA's Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 79-98, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00081.1.
12. Demirel, M. C., M. J. Booij, and A. Y. Hoekstra, 2013: Effect of different uncertainty sources on the skill of 10 day ensemble low flow forecasts for two hydrological models. Water Resour. Res., 49, 4035-4053, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20294.
13. Dietz, A. J., C. Kuenzer, U. Gessner, and S. Dech, 2012: Remote sensing of snow-A review of available methods. Int. J. Remote Sens., 33, 4094-4134, doi:10.1080/01431161.2011.640964.
14. Evensen, G., 2007: Data Assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman Filter. Springer, 279 pp.
15. Frei, C., 2014: Interpolation of temperature in a mountainous region using nonlinear profiles and non-Euclidean distances. Int. J. Climatol., 34, 1585-1605, doi:10.1002/joc.3786.
16. Fundel, F., and M. Zappa, 2011: Hydrological ensemble forecasting in mesoscale catchments: Sensitivity to initial conditions and value of reforecasts. Water Resour. Res., 47, W09520, doi:10.1029/2010WR009996.
17. Fundel, F., A. Walser, M. A. Liniger, C. Frei, and C. Appenzeller, 2010: Calibrated precipitation forecasts for a limited-area ensemble forecast system using reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 176-189, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2977.1.
18. Fundel, F., S. Jörg-Hess, and M. Zappa, 2013: Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 395-407, doi:10.5194/hess-17-395-2013.
19. Gruber, S., 2007: A mass-conserving fast algorithm to parameterize gravitational transport and deposition using digital elevation models. Water Resour. Res., 43, W06412, doi:10.1029/2006WR004868.
20. Gurtz, J., A. Baltensweiler, and H. Lang, 1999: Spatially distributed hydrotope-based modelling of evapotranspiration and runoff in mountainous basins. Hydrol. Processes, 13, 2751-2768, doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(19991215)13:17<2751::AID-HYP897>3.0.CO;2-O.
21. Gurtz, J., M. Zappa, K. Jasper, H. Lang, M. Verbunt, A. Badoux, and T. Vitvar, 2003: A comparative study in modelling runoff and its components in two mountainous catchments. Hydrol. Processes, 17, 297-311, doi:10.1002/hyp.1125.
22. Hargrove, W. W., F. M. Hoffman, and P. F. Hessburg, 2006: Mapcurves: Aquantitative method for comparing categorical maps. J. Geogr. Syst., 8, 187-208, doi:10.1007/s10109-006-0025-x.
23. He, M., T. S. Hogue, S. A. Margulis, and K. J. Franz, 2012: An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 815-831, doi:10.5194/hess-16-815-2012.
24. Hock, R., 1999: A distributed temperature-index ice- and snowmelt model including potential direct solar radiation. J. Glaciol., 45, 101-111.
25. Hüsler, F., T. Jonas, M. Riffler, J. P. Musial, and S. Wunderle, 2014: A satellite-based snow cover climatology (1985-2011) for the European Alps derived from AVHRR data. Cryosphere, 8, 73-90, doi:10.5194/tc-8-73-2014.
26. Jonas, T., C. Marty, and J. Magnusson, 2009: Estimating the snow water equivalent from snow depth measurements in the Swiss Alps. J. Hydrol., 378, 161-167, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.09.021.
27. Jörg-Hess, S., F. Fundel, T. Jonas, and M. Zappa, 2014: Homogenisation of a gridded snow water equivalent climatology for alpine terrain: Methodology and applications. Cryosphere, 8, 471-485, doi:10.5194/tc-8-471-2014.
28. Jörg-Hess, S., S. B. Kempf, F. Fundel, and M. Zappa, 2015: The benefit of climatological and calibrated reforecast data for simulating hydrological droughts in Switzerland. Meteor. Appl., 22, 444-458, doi:10.1002/met.1474.
29. Kirchner, J. W., 2006: Getting the right answers for the right reasons: Linking measurements, analyses, and models to advance the science of hydrology. Water Resour. Res., 42, W03S04, doi:10.1029/2005WR004362.
30. Kobierska, F., T. Jonas, M. Zappa, M. Bavay, J. Magnusson, and S. M. Bernasconi, 2013: Future runoff from a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: A two-model approach. Adv. Water Resour., 55, 204-214, doi:10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.07.024.
31. Köplin, N., D. Viviroli, B. Schdler, and R. Weingartner, 2010: How does climate change affect mesoscale catchments in Switzerland? A framework for a comprehensive assessment. Adv. Geosci., 27, 111-119, doi:10.5194/adgeo-27-111-2010.
32. Koster, R. D., S. P. P. Mahanama, B. Livneh, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. H. Reichle, 2010: Skill in streamflow forecasts derived from large-scale estimates of soil moisture and snow. Nat. Geosci., 3, 613-616, doi:10.1038/ngeo944.
33. Krause, P., D. Boyle, and F. Bäse, 2005: Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Adv. Geosci., 5, 89-97, doi:10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005.
34. Kruse, S., and I. Seidl, 2013: Social capacities for drought risk management in Switzerland. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3429-3441, doi:10.5194/nhess-13-3429-2013.
35. Liechti, K., M. Zappa, F. Fundel, and U. Germann, 2013: Probabilistic evaluation of ensemble discharge nowcasts in two nested alpine basins prone to flash floods. Hydrol. Processes, 27, 5-17, doi:10.1002/hyp.9458.
36. Lindström, G., B. Johansson, M. Persson, M. Gardelin, and S. Bergström, 1997: Development and test of the distributed HBV-96 hydrological model. J. Hydrol., 201, 272-288, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00041-3.
37. Magnusson, J., D. Gustafsson, F. Hüsler, and T. Jonas, 2014: Assimilation of point SWE data into a distributed snow cover model comparing two contrasting methods. Water Resour. Res., 50, 7816-7835, doi:10.1002/2014WR015302.
38. Marty, R., I. Zin, and C. Obled, 2013: Sensitivity of hydrological ensemble forecasts to different sources and temporal resolutions of probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Flash flood case studies in the Cevennes-Vivarais region (southern France). Hydrol. Processes, 27, 33-44, doi:10.1002/hyp.9543.
39. Mason, S. J., and A. P. Weigel, 2009: A generic forecast verification framework for administrative purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 331-349, doi:10.1175/2008MWR2553.1.
40. Moradkhani, H., 2008: Hydrologic remote sensing and land surface data assimilation. Sensors, 8, 2986-3004, doi:10.3390/s8052986.
41. Nash, J., and J. Sutcliffe, 1970: River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-A discussion of principles. J. Hydrol., 10, 282-290, doi:10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6.
42. Pappenberger, F., K. J. Beven, N. M. Hunter, P. D. Bates, B. T. Gouweleeuw, J. Thielen, and A. P. J. de Roo, 2005: Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictionswithin the European flood forecasting system (EFFS). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 381-393, doi:10.5194/hess-9-381-2005.
43. Ramos, M. H., S. J. van Andel, and F. Pappenberger, 2013: Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2219-2232, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2219-2013.
44. Rees, W.G., 2008: Comparing the spatial content of thematicmaps. Int. J. Remote Sens., 29, 3833-3844, doi:10.1080/01431160701852088.
45. Schaefli, B., and H. V. Gupta, 2007: Do Nash values have value? Hydrol. Processes, 21, 2075-2080, doi:10.1002/hyp.6825.
46. Schattan, P., M. Zappa, H. Lischke, L. Bernhard, E. Thurig, and B. Diekkruger, 2013: An approach for transient consideration of forest change in hydrological impact studies. IAHS Publ, 359, 311-319.
47. Seneviratne, S. I., and Coauthors, 2012: Swiss prealpine Rietholzbach research catchment and lysimeter: 32 year time series and 2003 drought event. Water Resour. Res., 48, W06526, doi:10.1029/2011WR011749.
48. Seneviratne, S. I., and Coauthors, 2013: Droughts in Switzerland (in German). Aqua Gas, 9, 38-47.
49. Sevruk, B., Ed., 1986: Correction of Precipitation Measurements. ETH/IASH/WMO Workshop on the Correction of Precipitation Measurements, Vol. 23, ETH Zürich, 288 pp.
50. Shukla, S., N. Voisin, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2012: Value of medium range weather forecasts in the improvement of seasonal hydrologic prediction skill. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2825-2838, doi:10.5194/hess-16-2825-2012.
51. Slater, A. G., and M. P. Clark, 2006: Snow data assimilation via an ensemble Kalman filter. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 478-493, doi:10.1175/JHM505.1.
52. Speich, M. J. R., B. Bernhard, A. J. Teuling, and M. Zappa, 2015: Application of bivariate mapping for hydrological classification and analysis of temporal change and scale effects in Switzerland. J. Hydrol., 523, 804-821, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.086.
53. Su, H., Z. L. Yang, G. Y. Niu, and R. E. Dickinson, 2008: Enhancing the estimation of continental-scale snow water equivalent by assimilating MODIS snow cover with the ensemble Kalman filter. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D08120, doi:10.1029/2007JD009232.
54. Tharme, R. E., 2003: A global perspective on environmental flow assessment: Emerging trends in the development and application of environmental flow methodologies for rivers. River Res. Appl., 19, 397-441, doi:10.1002/rra.736.
55. Thirel, G., E. Martin, J.-F. Mahfouf, S. Massart, S. Ricci, and F. Habets, 2010a: A past discharges assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France-Part 1: Description and validation of the assimilation system. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1623-1637, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1623-2010.
56. Thirel, G., E. Martin, J.-F. Mahfouf, S. Massart, S. Ricci, F. Regimbeau, and F. Habets, 2010b: A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France-Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1639-1653, doi:10.5194/hess-14-1639-2010.
57. Thirel, G., P. Salamon, P. Burek, and M. Kalas, 2013: Assimilation of MODIS snow cover area data in a distributed hydrological model using the particle filter. Remote Sens., 5, 5825-5850, doi:10.3390/rs5115825.
58. Verbunt, M., J. Gurtz, K. Jasper, H. Lang, P. Warmerdam, and M. Zappa, 2003: The hydrological role of snow and glaciers in alpine river basins and their distributed modeling. J. Hydrol., 282, 36-55, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00251-8.
59. Verbunt, M., A. Walser, J. Gurtz, A. Montani, and C. Schär, 2007: Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system: Selected case studies. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 897-909, doi:10.1175/JHM594.1.
60. Vitart, F., and Coauthors, 2008: The new VarEPS-monthly forecasting system: A first step towards seamless prediction. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1789-1799, doi:10.1002/qj.322.
61. Viviroli, D., H. Mittelbach, J. Gurtz, and R. Weingartner, 2009a: Continuous simulation for flood estimation in ungauged mesoscale catchments of Switzerland-Part II: Parameter regionalisation and flood estimation results. J. Hydrol., 377, 208-225, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.022.
62. Viviroli, D., M. Zappa, J. Gurtz, and R. Weingartner, 2009b: An introduction to the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools. Environ. Modell. Software, 24, 1209-1222, doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2009.04.001.
63. Viviroli, D., M. Zappa, J. Schwanbeck, J. Gurtz, and R. Weingartner, 2009c: Continuous simulation for flood estimation in ungauged mesoscale catchments of Switzerland-Part I: Modelling framework and calibration results. J. Hydrol., 377, 191-207, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.023.
64. Weigel, A. P., and S. J. Mason, 2011: The generalized discrimination score for ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3069-3074, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-10-05069.1.
65. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, 627 pp.
66. Zappa, M., and C. Kan, 2007: Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 7, 375-389, doi:10.5194/nhess-7-375-2007.
67. Zappa, M., F. Pos, U. Strasser, P. Warmerdam, and J. Gurtz, 2003: Seasonal water balance of an alpine catchment as evaluated by different methods for spatially distributed snowmelt modelling. Nord. Hydrol., 34, 179-202.
68. Zappa, M., and Coauthors, 2008: MAP D-PHASE: Real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 80-87, doi:10.1002/asl.183.
69. Zappa, M., S. Jaun, U. Germann, A. Walser, and F. Fundel, 2011: Superposition of three sources of uncertainties in operational flood forecasting chains. Atmos. Res., 100, 246-262, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.005.
70. Zappa, M., L. Bernhard, F. Fundel, and S. Jörg-Hess, 2012: Forecasts and scenarios of snow and water resources in alpine environments (in German). Forum für Wissen 2012, Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, 19-27.
71. Zappa, M., L. Bernhard, C. Spirig, K. Stahl, I. Seidl, and M. Stähli, 2014: A prototype platform for water resources monitoring and early recognition of critical droughts in Switzerland. IAHS Publ., 364, 492-498.