El Ninõ-Southern Oscillation, local weather and occurrences of dengue virus serotypes

Scientific Reports

Volumn 5, Issue , 2015, Pages

  Huang, Xiaodong ^a   Clements, Archie C A ^b   Williams, Gail ^c   Devine, Gregor ^d   Tong, Shilu ^a   Hu, Wenbiao ^a  

^a QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY   (Australia)

^b AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND   (Australia)

^d QIMR BERGHOFER MEDICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLASSIFICATION; DENGUE VIRUS; EL NINO; HUMAN; QUEENSLAND; SEROTYPE; TIME FACTOR; WEATHER;

DENGUE VIRUS; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HUMANS; QUEENSLAND; SEROGROUP; TIME FACTORS; WEATHER;

EID: 84947567222     PISSN: None     EISSN: 20452322     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/srep16806     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Halstead, S. B. Dengue. The Lancet 370, 1644-1652 (2007).
2. Lam, S. K., Burke, D., Gubler, D., Mdez-Gvan, J., Thomas, L. Call for a World Dengue Day. The Lancet 379, 411-412 (2012).
3. Hay, S. I. et al. Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 97, 9335-9339 (2000).
4. Sirisena, P., Noordeen, F. Evolution of dengue in Sri Lanka-changes in the virus, vector, and climate. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 19, 6-12 (2014).
5. Deen, J. L. et al. The WHO dengue classification and case definitions: time for a reassessment. The Lancet 368, 170-173 (2006).
6. Kochel, T. J. et al. Effect of dengue-1 antibodies on American dengue-2 viral infection and dengue haemorrhagic fever. The Lancet 360, 310-312 (2002).
7. Normile, D. Surprising new dengue virus throws a spanner in disease control efforts. Science 342, 415-415 (2013).
8. Hales, S., de Wet, N., Maindonald, J., Woodward, A. Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model. The Lancet 360, 830-834 (2002).
9. Huang, X., Clements, A. C., Williams, G., Milinovich, G., Hu, W. A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia. Emerg. Microbes Infect. 2, e87, doi: 10.1038/emi.2013.85 (2013).
10. Huang, X., Williams, G., Clements, A. C., Hu, W. Imported Dengue Cases, Weather Variation and Autochthonous Dengue Incidence in Cairns, Australia. PloS ONE 8, e81887, doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0081887 (2013).
11. Johansson, M. A., Dominici, F., Glass, G. E. Local and global effects of climate on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 3, e382, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000382 (2009).
12. Hu, W., Clements, A., Williams, G., Tong, S. Dengue fever and El Nino/Southern Oscillation in Queensland, Australia: a time series predictive model. Occup. Environ. Med. 67, 307-311 (2010).
13. Tipayamongkholgul, M., Fang, C.-T., Klinchan, S., Liu, C.-M., King, C. C. Effects of the El Ni-Southern Oscillation on dengue epidemics in Thailand, 1996-2005. BMC Public Health 9, 422 (2009).
14. Cazelles, B., Chavez, M., McMichael, A. J., Hales, S. Nonstationary influence of El Ni on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand. PLoS Med. 2, e106, doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020106 (2005).
15. Shang, C. S. et al. The role of imported cases and favorable meteorological conditions in the onset of dengue epidemics. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 4, e775, doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0000775 (2010).
16. Morin, C. W., Comrie, A. C., Ernst, K. Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications. Environ. Health Perspect. 121, 1264-1272 (2013).
17. Messina, J. P. et al. Global spread of dengue virus types: mapping the 70 year history. Trends Microbiol. 22, 138-146 (2014).
18. Lee, K.-S. et al. Dengue virus surveillance for early warning, Singapore. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 16, 847 (2010).
19. Nisalak, A. et al. Serotype-specific dengue virus circulation and dengue disease in Bangkok, Thailand from 1973 to 1999. Am. J. Trop Med. Hyg. 68, 191-202 (2003).
20. Carrington, C. V., Foster, J. E., Pybus, O. G., Bennett, S. N., Holmes, E. C. Invasion and maintenance of dengue virus type 2 and type 4 in the Americas. J. Virol. 79, 14680-14687 (2005).
21. Halstead, S. B. Dengue virus-mosquito interactions. Annu. Rev. Entomol. 53, 273-291 (2008).
22. Adams, B. et al. Cross-protective immunity can account for the alternating epidemic pattern of dengue virus serotypes circulating in Bangkok. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 14234-14239 (2006).
23. Duong, V. et al. Complex dynamic of dengue virus serotypes 2 and 3 in Cambodia following series of climate disasters. Infect. Genet. Evol. 15, 77-86 (2013).
24. De Simone, T. et al. Dengue virus surveillance: the co-circulation of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 98, 553-562 (2004).
25. Rigau-Pez, J. G. et al. The reappearance of dengue-3 and a subsequent dengue-4 and dengue-1 epidemic in Puerto Rico in 1998. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 67, 355-362 (2002).
26. RungeRanzinger, S., Horstick, O., Marx, M., Kroeger, A. What does dengue disease surveillance contribute to predicting and detecting outbreaks and describing trends Trop. Med. Int. Health 13, 1022-1041 (2008).
27. Queensland Government. Queensland Dengue Management Plan. (Queensland Government, 2011).
28. Kyle, J. L., Harris, E. Global spread and persistence of dengue. Annu. Rev. Microbiol. 62, 71-92 (2008).
29. Messer, W. B., Gubler, D. J., Harris, E., Sivananthan, K., de Silva, A. M. Emergence and global spread of a dengue serotype 3, subtype III virus. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 9, 800-809 (2003).
30. Gubler, D. J. The changing epidemiology of yellow fever and dengue, 1900 to 2003: full circle Comp. Immunol. Microbiol. Infect. Dis. 27, 319-330 (2004).
31. Warrilow, D., Northill, J. A., Pyke, A. T. Sources of Dengue Viruses Imported into Queensland, Australia, 2002-2010. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 18, 1850-1857 (2012).
32. Katrina, Knope & Carolein, Giele. Increasing notifications of dengue in Australia related to overseas travel, 1991 to 2012. Commun. Dis. Intell. Q. Rep. 37, E55-E59 (2013).
33. Rodenhuis-Zybert, I. A., Wilschut, J., Smit, J. M. Dengue virus life cycle: viral and host factors modulating infectivity. Cell. Mol. Life Sci. 67, 2773-2786 (2010).
34. Rebeca Rico-Hesse. Microevolution and virulence of dengue viruses. Adv. Virus Res. 59, 315-341 (2003).
35. Bureau of Meteorology. Climate Glossary Southern Oscillation Index (2014). Available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml. (Accessed: 19th March 2014).
36. Cobb, K. M. et al. Highly variable El Ni-Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene. Science 339, 67-70 (2013).
37. Watts, D. M., Burke, D. S., Harrison, B. A., Whitmire, R. E., Nisalak, A. Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of Aedes aegypti for dengue 2 virus. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 36, 143-152 (1987).
38. Focks, D. A., Brenner, R. J., Hayes, J., Daniels, E. Transmission thresholds for dengue in terms of Aedes aegypti pupae per person with discussion of their utility in source reduction efforts. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 62, 11-18 (2000).
39. Gagnon, A. S., Andrew BG Bush & Karen E. Smoyer-Tomic. Dengue epidemics and the El Ni southern oscillation. Clim. Res. 19, 35-43 (2001).
40. Bureau of Meteorology. Climate of Cairns (2012). Available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/cairns/climate.shtml . (Accessed: 15th January 2013).
41. Bureau of Meteorology. Climate statistics for Australian locations-Summary statistics CAIRNS AERO (2015). Available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/averages/tables/cw-031011.shtml. (Accessed: 6th July 2015).
42. Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. El Ni, La Ni and Australia's climate (2005). Available at: http://www.bom. gov.au/info/leaflets/nino-nina.pdf. (Accessed:15th September 2014).
43. Queensland Government. SOI data files (2014). Available at: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/index.php. (Accessed: 1st April 2014).
44. Breiman, L., Friedman, J. H., Olshen, R. A., Stone, C. G. Classification and Regression Trees. (Wadsworth International Group, California, 1984).
45. Banu, S., Hu, W., Hurst, C., Tong, S. Dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region: impact of climate change and socioenvironmental factors. Trop. Med. Int. Health 16, 598-607 (2011).
46. Chan, M., Michael A. Johansson. The incubation periods of dengue viruses. PLoS One 7, e50972, doi: 10.1371/journal. pone.0050972 (2012).
47. World Health Organisation. Dengue guidelines for diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control. (WHO, France, 2009).