Strategic foresight for (coastal) urban tourism market complexity: The case of Bournemouth

Tourism Management

Volumn 54, Issue , 2016, Pages 81-95

  Carlisle, Sheena ^a   Johansen, Aleksander ^b   Kunc, Martin ^c  

^a CARDIFF METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b University of Warwick ^*  (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Educational visitors; Scenario planning; System modelling; Urban tourism planning

Indexed keywords

COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT; LEISURE INDUSTRY; STRATEGIC APPROACH; TOURISM DEVELOPMENT; TOURISM MARKET; URBAN AREA; URBAN PLANNING;

BOURNEMOUTH [BOURNEMOUTH (ADS)]; BOURNEMOUTH [ENGLAND]; ENGLAND; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84946763188     PISSN: 02615177     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2015.10.005     Document Type: Article

References (97)

1. Agarwal S. Restructuring seaside tourism. Annals of Tourism Research 2002, 29(1):25-55.
2. Andereck K.L., Valentine K.M., Knopf R.C., Vogt C.A. Residents' perceptions of community tourism impacts. Annals of Tourism Research 2005, 32(4):1056-1076.
3. Ashworth G.J. Do we understand urban tourism?. Journal of tourism hospitality, Open Access Journal 2012, 1:4.
4. Ashworth G., Page S.J. Urban tourism research: recent progress and current paradoxes. Tourism Management 2011, 32:1-15.
5. Bosch T.V.M., Kambiz M.E. Towards a shared systems model of stakeholders in tourism development in the Cat Ba biosphere reserve of Vietnam. Paper presented at 29th International Conference of the system dynamics Society, Washington, DC, USA 2011, http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2011/proceed/papers/P1201.pdf.
6. Bournemouth Borough Council Visitor survey 2011, http://www.bournemouth2026.org.uk/visitorssurvey2011.
7. Bournemouth Borough Council Headline corporate plan 2012, http://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/CouncilDemocracy/CouncilPerformance/HeadlineCorporatePlan201215.pdf.
8. Bournemouth Borough Council Bournemouth local plan: Core strategy 2012, http://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/PlanningBuildings/Planning/Policy/Local-Plan/CoreStrategy/CoreStrategyFiles/Adopted/Core-Strategy.pdf.
9. Bournemouth Statistics Population 2008, http://www.bournemouth.gov.uk/PeopleLiving/Bournemouth%20Statistics/Themes/Population%20Migration/Population/Population.aspx.
10. Bournemouth Vision 2026 Bournemouth 2026 2006, http://www.bournemouth2026.org.uk.
11. BTMB Bournemouth tourism management board 2012, http://www.bournemouth.co.uk/business/btmb.
12. Carlisle S., Kunc M., Jones E., Tiffin S. Supporting innovation for tourism development through multi-stakeholder approaches: experiences from Africa. Tourism Management 2013, 35:59-69.
13. Chatterton P. University students and city centres - the formation of exclusive geographies: the case of Bristol, UK. Geoforum 1999, 30(2):117-133.
14. Chatterton P. The student city: an ongoing story of neoliberalism, gentrification, and commodification. Environment and Planning A 2010, 42(3):509-514.
15. Chen K.C. Decision support system for tourism development: system dynamics approach. Journal of Computer Information Systems, Fall 2004, 104-112.
16. Chettiparamb A., Thomas H. Editorial: tourism and spatial planning. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events 2012, 4(3):215-220.
17. Chi C.G.Q., Qu H. Examining the structural relationships of destination image, tourist satisfaction and destination loyalty: an integrated approach. Tourism Management 2008, 29(4):624-636.
18. Cooper C., Hall M. Contemporary Tourism: An International approach 2008, Butterworth-Heinemann, London.
19. Cronin M., Gonzalez C., Sterman J.D. Why don't well-educated adults understand accumulation? A challenge to researchers, educators, and citizens. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 2009, 108:116-130.
20. Decrop A. Trustworthiness in qualitative tourism research. Qualitative research in tourism: Ontologies, epistemologies and methodologies 2004, 156-169. Routledge, London. J. Phillimore, L. Goodson (Eds.).
21. Dorset for you Statistics and census information 2014, https://www.dorsetforyou.com/statistics.
22. Dredge D. Place change and tourism development conflict: evaluating public interest. Tourism Management 2010, 31:104-112.
23. International handbook on the economics of tourism 2006, Edward Elgar:, Cheltenham, UK. L. Dwyer, P. Forsyth (Eds.).
24. Supporting strategy: Frameworks, methods and models 2007, Wiley & Sons, Chichester. R. Dyson, F. O'Brien (Eds.).
25. Edwards D., Griffin T., Hayllar B. Urban tourism research: developing an agenda. Annals of Tourism Research 2008, 35(4):1032-1052.
26. Fernández-Güell J.M., Collado M. Foresight in designing sun-beach destinations. Tourism Management 2014, 41:83-95.
27. Formica S., Kothari T.H. Strategic destination planning: analysing the future of tourism. Journal of Travel Research 2008, 46(4):355-367.
28. Friedmann J. Planning in the public domain: From knowledge to action 1987, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
29. Fyall A., Garrod B. Tourism marketing: A collaborative approach 2005, Channel View, Clevedon.
30. Gale T. Modernism, Post- modernism and the decline of British Seaside resorts as long holiday destinations: a case study of Rhyl, North Wales. Tourism Geographies 2005, 7(1):86-112.
31. Georgantzas N.C. Tourism dynamics: Cyprus' hotel value chain and profitability. System Dynamics Review 2003, 19:175-212.
32. Gössling S., Scott D. Scenario planning for sustainable tourism: an introduction. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 2012, 20(6):773-778.
33. HM Government International education - global growth and prosperity. An accompanying analytical narrative 2013, UK Government, Report July 2013.
34. Hall C.M. Trends in ocfean and coastal tourism: the end of the last Frontier?. Ocean and Coastal Management 2001, 44(9-10):601-618.
35. Hall C.M. Tourism planning: Policies, processes and relationships 2008, Pearson Education, Harlow.
36. Hannigan J. Fantasy city 1998, Routledge, London.
37. Haugland S.A., Ness H., Grønseth B.O., Aarstad J. Development of tourism destinations: an integrated multilevel perspective. Annals of Tourism Research 2011, 38(1):268-290.
38. Healey P. Transforming governance: challenges of institutional adaptation and a new politics of space. European Planning Journal 2006, 14(3):299-320.
39. Hernantes J., Rich E., Laugé A., Labaka L., Sarriegi J.M. Learning before the storm: modeling multiple stakeholder activities in support of crisis management, a practical case. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2013, 80(9):1742-1755.
40. Housing Statistical Release 2011, 11 March 2011. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/family-demography/families-and-households/2011/stb-families-households.html.
41. Jemala M. Evolution of foresight in the global historical context. Foresight 2010, 12(4):65-81.
42. Jennings S. Coastal tourism and shoreline management. Annals of Tourism Research 2004, 31(4):899-922.
43. Jiang J., Li J., Xu H. System dynamics model for transportation infrastructure investment and cultural heritage tourism development: A case study of Xidi and Hongcun historical villages. Paper presented at 28th International system dynamics Conference, Seoul, Korea 2010, http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2010/proceed/papers/P1149.pdf.
44. Judd D.R., Fainsten S.S. The tourist city 1999, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.
45. Klosterman R.E. Arguments for and against planning. Town Planning Review 1985, 56(1):5.
46. Koltchanov V., Casanova P. SimTour: The simulation model of the foreign tourist flow to France. Paper presented at 22nd International System Dynamics Conference, Keble College 2004, Oxford, England. http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2004/SDS_2004/PROCEED.pdf,75.
47. Kunc M. Forecasting the development of wine tourism: the case of Chile. International Journal of Wine Business Research 2009, 21:325-338.
48. Kunc M. Teaching strategic thinking using system dynamics: lessons from a strategic development course. System Dynamics Review 2012, 28(1):28-45.
49. Kunc M., Morecroft J. System dynamics modelling for strategic development. Supporting Strategy: Frameworks, Methods and models 2007, Wiley & Sons, Chichester. R. Dyson, F. O'Brien (Eds.).
50. Lacher R.G., Oh C.-O., Jodice L.W., Norman W.C. The role of heritage and cultural tourism destination preferences: a choice modelling-based analysis. Journal of Travel Research 2013, 52(4):534-546.
51. Language Course Directory International student statistics 2015, http://www.language-course-directory.com/language-schools/bournemouth.html.
52. Law M.C. Urban tourism: Attracting visitors to large cities 1994, Mansell Publishing, London.
53. Law M.C. Tourism in major cities 1996, International Thomson Business Press, London.
54. Law A., De Lacy T., McGrath G.M., Whitelaw P.A., Lipman G., Buckley G. Towards a green economy decision support system for tourism destinations. Journal of Sustainable Tourism 2012, 20(6):823-843.
55. Lei K., Chan S.K., Cao J., Zhou S. Modelling and simulation of ecological footprint of Macao. Paper presented at 28th International system dynamics Conference, Seoul, Korea 2010, http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2010/proceed/papers/P1149.pdf.
56. Maitland R. How can we manage the tourist-historic city? tourism strategy in Cambridge, UK, 1978-2003. Tourism Management 2006, 27(6):1262-1273.
57. Manning R., Lawson S., Newman P., Laven D., Valliere W. Methodological issues in measuring crowding-related norms in outdoor recreation. Leisure Sciences: An Interdisciplinary Journal 2010, 24(3-4):339-348.
58. Mingers J., White L. A review of the recent contribution of systems thinking to operational research and management science. European Journal of Operational Research 2010, 207(3):1147-1161.
59. Mullins P. Class relations and tourism urbanisation: the regeneration of the petite bourgeoisie and the emergence of a new urban form. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 1994, 18(4):591-607.
60. National Coastal Tourism Academy Facts and figures about Bournemouth's visitors 2014, http://coastaltourismacademy.co.uk/resource-hub/resource/facts-and-figures-about-bournemouths-visitors.
61. Office for National Statistics (ONS) Detailed towns data, International passenger survey 2010, 2013, http://www.visitbritain.org/insightsandstatistics/inboundvisitorstatistics/regions/towns.aspx.
62. Page S.J. Urban tourism 1995, Routledge, London.
63. Page S.J. Tourism management: Managing for change 2007, Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford. 3rd ed.
64. Page S.J., Hall C.M. Managing urban tourism 2003, Pearson Education, London.
65. Pappalepore I., Maitland R., Smith A. Exploring urban creativity: visitor experiences of Spitalfields, London. Tourism Culture & Communication 2010, 10(3):217-230.
66. Paskaleva-Shapira K.A. New paradigms in city tourism management: redefining destination promotion. Journal of Travel Research 2007, 46(1):108-114.
67. Philipson, A. (2013). http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/10012254/Average-one-bedroom-new-build-no-bigger-than-an-underground-train-carriage.html.
68. Richards G., Wilson J. Developing creativity in tourist experiences: a solution to the serial reproduction of culture?. Tourism Management 2006, 27(6):1209-1223.
69. Ritchie B.W. Managing educational tourism 2003, Channel View Publications, Bristol.
70. Ritchie J.R.B., Crouch G.I. The competitive destination: A sustainable tourism perspective 2003, CAB International, Wallingford, Oxon.
71. Rouwette E.A.J.A., Vennix J.A.M., Van Mullekom T. Group model building effectiveness: a review of assessment studies. System Dynamics Review 2002, 18(1):5-45.
72. Rydin Y. The purpose of planning: Creating sustainable towns and cities 2011, The Policy Press, Bristol.
73. Sautter E.T., Leisen B. Managing stakeholders a tourism planning model. Annals of Tourism Research 1999, 26(2):312-328.
74. Schianetz K., Kavanagh L., Lockington D. The learning tourism Destination: the potential of a learning organisation approach for improving the sustainability of tourism destinations. Tourism Management 2007, 28:1485-1496.
75. Sedmak G., Mihalič T. Authenticity in mature seaside resorts. Annals of Tourism Research 2008, 35(4):1007-1031.
76. Sheehan L., Ritchie J.R.B. Destination stakeholders - exploring identity and salience. Annals of Tourism Research 2005, 32(3):711-734.
77. Shen W. A study on Chinese student migration in the United Kingdom. Asia Europe Journal 2005, 3(3):429-436.
78. Simão J.N., Partidário M.R. How does tourism planning contribute to sustainable development?. Sustainable Development 2010, 20(6):372-385.
79. Smith S. Tourism chiefs brief the minister 2011, http://www.businessdorset.co.uk/news/news/9224274.Tourism_chiefs_brief_the_minister.
80. Smith M., Macleod N., Robertson M.H. Key concepts in tourist studies 2010, Sage Publications Ltd.
81. Song H., Li G. Tourism demand modelling and forecasting-A review of recent research. Tourism Management 2008, 29(2):203-220.
82. South West Tourism Alliance Volume and value of tourism 2009, http://www.swtourismalliance.org.uk/research-facts-and-figures/regional-tourism-data.
83. Sterman J.D. Modeling managerial behavior: misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment. Management Science 1989, 35(3):321-339.
84. Sterman J.D. Business dynamics systems thinking and modelling for a complex world 2000, McGraw-Hill Education, New York.
85. Study Travel Magazine The global market 2012, Special report December 2012. http://www.hothousemedia.com/ltm/ltmbackissues/dec12web/dec12specreport.html.
86. Team Consulting Poole and Bournemouth strategic framework and action plan 2008 2008, http://www.team-tourism.com/results.asp?interest=Select&clienttype=Select&location=UK&submit=Search.
87. Tollefson J. Copenhagen: the scientists' view. Nature 2009, 462:714-715.
88. Townsley M., Grimshaw R. The consequences of queuing: crowding, situational features and aggression in entertainment precincts. Crime Prevention & Community Safety 2013, 15:23-47.
89. UKCISA International student statistics 2015, UK Council for International Student Affairs. http://www.ukcisa.org.uk/Info-for-universities-colleges%13schools/Policy-research%13statistics/Research%13statistics/International-student-statistics/.
90. Van den Belt M. Mediated modeling: A system dynamics approach to environmental consensus building 2004, Island Press, Washington, DC.
91. Van der Berg L., Russo A.P. The student city: Strategic planning for student communities in EU cities 2004, Ashgate Publishing, London.
92. Walsh P.R. Dealing with the uncertainties of environmental change by adding scenario planning to the strategy reformulation equation. Management Decision 2005, 43(1):113-122.
93. Wright G., Goodwin P. Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method. International Journal of Forecasting 2009, 25(4):813-825.
94. Xiang Z., Formica S. Mapping environmental change in tourism: a study of the incentive travel industry. Tourism Management 2007, 28(5):1193-1202.
95. Xing Y., Dangerfield B. Modelling the sustainability of mass tourism in island tourist economies. Journal of the Operational Research Society 2010, 62:1742-1752.
96. Xu F., Morgan M., Song P. Students' travel behaviour: a cross-cultural comparison of UK and China. International Journal of Tourism Research 2009, 11(3):255-268.
97. Yeoman I., McMahon-Beattie U. Developing a scenario planning process using a blank piece of paper. Tourism and Hospitality Research 2004, 5(3):273-285.