Space matters: Geographic variability of electoral turnout determinants in the 2012 London mayoral election

Electoral Studies

Volumn 40, Issue , 2015, Pages 322-334

  Mansley, Ewan ^a   Demšar, Urška ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ST ANDREWS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Electoral geography; Geographically weighted regression; Socio demographic characteristics; Spatial analysis; Spatial variability; Turnout

Indexed keywords

DEMOCRACY; ELECTION; ELECTORAL SYSTEM; LOCAL GOVERNMENT; POLITICAL SYSTEM; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SPATIAL ANALYSIS; SPATIAL VARIATION; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

ENGLAND; LONDON [ENGLAND]; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84945135143     PISSN: 02613794     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.10.003     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Agnew J. Place and Politics: the Geographical Mediation of State and Society 1987, Allen & Unwin, Boston.
2. Arrow K.J. Social Choice and Individual Values 1951, John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY. first ed.
3. Arzheimer K., Evans J. Geolocation and voting: candidate-voter distance effects on party choice in the 2010 UK general election in England. Polit. Geogr. 2012, 31:301-310.
4. Barnett M.J. Aggregate models of British voting behaviour. Polit. Stud. 1973, 21(2):121-134.
5. Bhatti Y., Hansen K.M., Wass H. The relationship between age and turnout: a roller-coaster ride. Elect. Stud. 2012, 31(3):588-593.
6. Blair T. Leading the Way: a New Vision for Local Government 1998, Research Institute for Public Policy, London.
7. Blais A. To Vote or Not to Vote: the Merits and Limits of Rational Choice Theory 2000, University of Pittsburgh Press, Pittsburgh.
8. Blais A., Gidengil E., Nevitte N., Nadeau R. Where does turnout decline come from?. Eur. J. Polit. Res. 2004, 43(2):221-236.
9. Bowyer B. Local context and extreme right support in England: the British National Party in the 2002 and 2003 local elections. Elect. Stud. 2008, 27:611-620.
10. Brunsdon C., Fotheringham A.S., Charlton M. Geographically weighted discriminant analysis. Geogr. Anal. 2007, 39(4):376-396.
11. Byrne T. Local Government in Britain: Everyone's Guide to How it All Works 1983, Penguin, Harmondsworth. second ed.
12. Clarke H.D., Sanders D., Stewart M.C., Whiteley P. Political Choice in Britain 2004, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
13. Cox G.W. Closeness and turnout: a methodological note. J. Polit. 1988, 50(3):768-775.
14. Crespin M., Darmofal D., Eaves C. The political geography of congressional elections. Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, 31 March-3 April, Chicago, IL 2011.
15. Crewe I. Electoral participation. Democracy at the Polls: a Comparative Study of Competitive National Elections 1981, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C. D. Butler, H.R. Penniman, A. Ranney (Eds.).
16. Crewe I., Fox A., Alt J. Non-voting in British general elections 1966-October 1974. British Political Sociology Yearbook: Vol. III, Political Participation 1977, Croom Helm, London. C. Crouch (Ed.).
17. Curtice J.K., Seyd B., Thomson K. Do mayoral elections work? Evidence from London. Polit. Stud. 2008, 56(3):653-678.
18. Davies P., Newton K. An aggregate data analysis of turnout and party voting in local elections. Sociology 1974, 8(2):213-231.
19. Denny K.J., Doyle O.M. ". . . Take up thy bed, and vote" measuring the relationship between voting behaviour and indicators of health. Eur. J. Public Health 2007, 17(4):400-401.
20. Denver D.T., Halfacree K. Inter-constituency migration and party support in Britain. Polit. Stud. 1992, 40(3):571-580.
21. Denver D.T., Hands H.T.G. Marginality and turnout in British general elections. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 1974, 4(1):17-35.
22. Dormann C.F., Elith J., Bacher S., Buchmann C., Carl G., Carré G., Garcia Marguéz J.R., Gruber B., Lafourcade B., Leitao P.J., Münkemüller T., McClean C., Osborne P.E., Reineking B., Schröder B., Skidmore A.K., Zurell D., Lautenbach S. Collinearity: a review of methods to deal with it and a simulation study evaluating their performance. Ecography 2013, 36(1):27-46.
23. Downs A. An Economic Theory of Democracy 1957, Harper & Row, New York, NY.
24. Eagles M., Erfle S. Community cohesion and voter turnout in English parliamentary constituencies. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 1989, 19(1):115-125.
25. Foley P., Demšar U. Using geovisual analytics to compare the performance of geographically weighted discriminant analysis versus its global counterpart, linear discriminant analysis. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci. 2013, 27(4):633-661.
26. Fotheringham A.S., Brunsdon C., Charlton M. Geographically Weighted Regression: the Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships 2002, Wiley, Chichester.
27. Fotheringham A.S., Kelly M.H., Charlton M. The demographic impacts of the Irish famine: towards a greater geographical understanding. Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr. 2012, 38(2):221-237.
28. Franklin M.N. Electoral participation. Elections and Voting in Global Perspective II 1996, Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA. L. LeDuc, R.G. Niemi, R. Norirs (Eds.).
29. Getis A. Spatial weights matrices. Geogr. Anal. 2009, 41:404-410.
30. Geys B. 'Rational' theories of voter turnout: a review. Polit. Stud. Rev. 2006, 4:16-35.
31. Geys B. Explaining voter turnout: a review of aggregate-level research. Elect. Stud. 2006, 25:637-663.
32. Grofman B. Is turnout the paradox that ate rational choice theory?. Information, Participation, and Choice: an Economic Theory of Democracy in Perspective 1993, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor. B. Grofman (Ed.).
33. Goerres A. Why are older people more likely to vote? The impact of ageing on electoral turnout in Europe. Br. J. Polit. Int. Relat. 2007, 9(1):90-121.
34. Highton B., Wolfinger W.E. The first seven years of the political life cycle. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 2001, 45(1):202-209.
35. Hillygus S.D. The missing link: exploring the relationship between higher education and political engagement. Polit. Behav. 2005, 27(1):25-47.
36. Hodge M., Leach S., Stoker G. More than the Flower Show: Elected Mayors and Democracy 1997, Fabian Society, London.
37. Johnston R., Pattie C. Electoral geography in electoral studies: putting voters in their place. Spaces of Democracy: Geographical Perspectives on Citizenship, Participation and Representation 2004, Sage, London. C. Barnett, M. Low (Eds.).
38. Johnston R., Pattie C. Putting Voters in Their Place: Geography and Elections in Great Britain 2006, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
39. Kavanagh A. Second order elections and the Republic of Ireland: a spatial perspective on turnout differences between the 2002 general election and 2004 local elections. 56th Annual Conference of the Political Studies Association (PSA) 3-6 April 2006, University of Reading.
40. Kavanagh A., Sinnott R., Fotheringham S., Charlton M. A geographically weighted regression analysis of general election turnout in the Republic of Ireland. Political Studies Association of Ireland Conference 20 October 2006, University College Cork.
41. Kingston P.W., Thompson J.L.P., Eichar D.M. The politics of home ownership. Am. Polit. Q. 1984, 12(2):131-150.
42. Konishi S., Kitagawa G. Information Criteria and Statistical Modeling 2008, Springer Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg.
43. Leighley J., Nagler J. Individual and systemic influences on turnout: who votes?. J. Polit. 1992, 54(3):718-738.
44. Lipset S.L. Political Man: the Social Bases of Politics 1960, Doubleday & Company, Garden City, NY.
45. Lutz J.M. Marginality, major third parties and turnout in England in the 1970s and 1980s: a re-analysis and extension. Polit. Stud. 1991, 39(4):721-726.
46. Matsusaka J.G. Election closeness and voter turnout: evidence from California ballot propositions. Public Choice 1993, 76(4):313-334.
47. McAllister I. Explaining turnout in the 2001 British general election, representation. J. Represent. Democr. 2001, 38(3):256-267.
48. McLennan D., Barnes H., Noble M., Davies J., Garratt E., Dibben C. The English Indices of Deprivation 2010 2011, Available at:, (accessed 14.03.14.). http://www.communities.gov.uk/docudocum/statistics/pdf/1870718.pdf.
49. Milbrath L.W., Goel M.L. Political Participation: How and Why Do People Get Involved in Politics? 1977, University Press of America, Washington D.C. second ed.
50. Miller W.L. Irrelevant Elections? The Quality of Local Democracy in Britain 1988, Clarendon Press, Oxford.
51. Moran P.A.P. Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika 1950, 37(1):17-23.
52. Morlan R.L. Municipal vs. national election voter turnout: Europe and the United States. Polit. Sci. Q. 1984, 99(3):457-470.
53. Mughan A. Party and Participation in British Elections 1986, Pinter, London.
54. Newton Turnout and marginality in local elections. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 1972, 2(2):251-255.
55. Office for National Statistics Parliamentary Constituencies Population Estimates, Mid-2011 (Census Based) 2013, [Online], Available at:, (accessed 14.03.14.). http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_311961.pdf.
56. Office for National Statistics Overcrowding and Under-occupation in England and Wales 2014, [Online], Available at:, (accessed 20.03.14.). http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_360082.pdf.
57. Orford S., Rallings C., Thrasher M., Borisyuk G. Investigating differences in electoral turnout: the influence of ward-level context on participation in local and parliamentary elections in Britain. Environ. Plan. A 2008, 40(5):1250-1268.
58. Orford S., Rallings C., Thrasher M., Borisyuk G. Electoral salience and the costs of voting at national, sub-national and supra-national elections in the UK: a case study of Brent, UK. Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr. 2009, 34:195-214.
59. Orford S., Rallings C., Thrasher M., Borisyuk G. Changes in the probability of voter turnout when resiting polling stations: a case study in Brent, UK. Environ. Plan. C 2011, 29:149-169.
60. O'Sullivan D., Unwin D. Geographic Information Analysis 2010, Wiley & Sons, Chichester.
61. Paez A. Spatially weighted regression: exploring spatial non-stationarity in multiple contexts. 51st Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, 11-13 November, Seattle, WA 2004.
62. Parry G., Moyser G., Day N. Political Participation and Democracy in Britain 1992, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
63. Pattie C., Johnston R.J. Voter turnout at the British general election of 1992: rational choice, social standing or political efficacy?. Eur. J. Polit. Res. 1998, 33(2):263-283.
64. Pattie C., Seyd P., Whiteley P. Citizenship and civic engagement: attitudes and behaviour in Britain. Polit. Stud. 2003, 51(3):443-468.
65. Rallings C., Thrasher M. Turnout in English local elections - an aggregate analysis with electoral and contextual data. Elect. Stud. 1990, 9(2):79-90.
66. Rallings C., Thrasher M. Explaining Election Turnout: a Secondary Analysis of Local Election Statistics 1994, HMSO, London.
67. Rallings C., Thrasher M. Local Elections in Britain 1997, Routledge, London.
68. Rallings C., Thrasher M., Cowling D. Mayoral referendums and elections. Local Gov. Stud. 2002, 28(4):67-90.
69. Rallings C., Thrasher M. Local Elections Handbook 2006 2006, Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre, Plymouth.
70. Rogers S., Burn-Murdoch J. 'UK Election Historic Turnouts since 1918', the Guardian 2012, 16 November [Online]. Available at:, (accessed 12.03.14). http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/nov/16/uk-election-turnouts-historic.
71. Ross C., Mirowsky J. Neighbourhood socioeconomic status and health: context or composition?. City Community 2008, 7(2):163-179.
72. Rowley G. The greater London Council elections of 1964 and 1967: a study in electoral geography. Trans. Inst. Br. Geogr. 1971, 53:117-131.
73. Shin M., Agnew J. Spatial regression for electoral studies: the case of the Italian Lega Nord. Revitalizing Electoral Geography 2011, 59-74. Ashgate, Ch. 4. B. Warf, J. Leib (Eds.).
74. Sinnott R., Whelan B.J. Turnout in second order elections: the case of EP elections in Dublin 1984 and 1989. Econ. Soc. Rev. 1992, 23(2):147-166.
75. Smeets K., van Ham C. The embarrassment of riches? A meta-analysis of individual-level research on voter turnout. Elect. Stud. 2013, 32:344-359.
76. Swaddle K., Heath A. Official and reported turnout in the British general election of 1987. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 1989, 19:537-551.
77. Taylor A.H. Journey time, perceived distance and electoral turnout - Victoria Ward, Swansea. Area 1973, 5(1):59-62.
78. Verba S., Nie N. Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality 1972, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
79. Whiteley P., Clarke H., Sanders D., Stewart M. Turnout. Parliam. Aff. 2001, 54(4):775-788.
80. Wing S.I., Walker J.L. The geographic dimensions of electoral polarization in the 2004 U.S. Presidential vote. Progress in Spatial Analysis: Theory and Computation, and Thematic Applications 2010, 253-285. Springer Verlag, Berlin/Heidelberg. A. Paez, J. Le Gallo, R. Buliung, S. Dall'Erba (Eds.).
81. Wolfinger R.E., Rosenstone S.J. Who Votes? 1980, Yale University Press, New Haven, CT.