The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

Nature

Volumn 526, Issue 7573, 2015, Pages 421-425

  Golledge, N R ^a,b   Kowalewski, D E ^c   Naish, T R ^a,b   Levy, R H ^b   Fogwill, C J ^d   Gasson, E G W ^e  

^a VICTORIA UNIVERSITY OF WELLINGTON   (New Zealand)

^b GNS SCIENCE   (New Zealand)

^c WORCESTER STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES   (Australia)

^e UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; EMISSION INVENTORY; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE GAS; ICE SHEET; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE; LONG-TERM CHANGE; SEA LEVEL CHANGE; SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TIMESCALE; VISCOELASTIC FLUID;

AIR TEMPERATURE; ANTARCTICA; ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERE; CARBON FOOTPRINT; CLIMATE CHANGE; ICE SHEET; ICE SHELF; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEA; SEA LEVEL; SEA LEVEL RISE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; CHEMISTRY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FREEZING; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; HEAT; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; ICE COVER; PREVENTION AND CONTROL; STATISTICS AND NUMERICAL DATA; THEORETICAL MODEL; TIME FACTOR; UNCERTAINTY;

ANTARCTICA;

SEA WATER;

ANTARCTIC REGIONS; ATMOSPHERE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FREEZING; GLOBAL WARMING; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; HOT TEMPERATURE; HUMAN ACTIVITIES; ICE COVER; MODELS, THEORETICAL; OCEANS AND SEAS; SEAWATER; TIME FACTORS; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 84944348546     PISSN: 00280836     EISSN: 14764687     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nature15706     Document Type: Article

References (59)

1. Meinshausen, M. et al. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Change 109, 213-241 (2011).
2. Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M. & Knutti, R. Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates. Nature Clim. Change 2, 248-253 (2012).
3. Collins,M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. et al.) 1029-1136 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
4. Pritchard, H. D. et al. Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves. Nature 484, 502-505 (2012).
5. Wouters, B. et al. Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula. Science 348, 899-903 (2015).
6. Joughin, I.& Alley, R.B. Stability of theWest Antarctic ice sheet in a warming world. Nature Geosci. 4, 506-513 (2011).
7. Scambos, T. A., Bohlander, J. A., Shuman, C. A. & Skvarca, P. Glacier acceleration and thinning after ice shelf collapse in the Larsen B embayment, Antarctica. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L18402 (2004).
8. Vaughan, D. G. & Doake, C. S. M. Recent atmospheric warming and retreat of ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula. Nature 379, 328-331 (1996).
9. Liu, Y. et al. Ocean-driven thinning enhances iceberg calving and retreat of Antarctic ice shelves. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 3263-3268 (2015).
10. Paolo, F. S., Fricker, H. A. & Padman, L. Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating. Science 348, 327-331 (2015).
11. Roemmich, D. et al. Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006. Nature Clim. Change 5, 240-245 (2015).
12. Schmidtko, S., Heywood, K. J., Thompson, A. F. & Aoki, S. Multidecadal warming of Antarctic waters. Science 346, 1227-1231 (2014).
13. Steig, E. J. et al. Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature 457, 459-462 (2009).
14. Harig, C. & Simons, F. J. Accelerated West Antarctic ice mass loss continues to outpace East Antarctic gains. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 415, 134-141 (2015).
15. Hay, C. C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R. E. & Mitrovica, J. X. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Nature 517, 481-484 (2015).
16. Joughin, I.,Smith, B. E.&Medley, B.Marine ice sheet collapse potentiallyunderway for the Thwaites Glacier basin, West Antarctica. Science 344, 735-738 (2014).
17. Rignot, E., Mouginot, J., Morlighem, M., Seroussi, H. & Scheuchl, B. Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 3502-3509 (2014).
18. Bindschadler, R. et al. Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea-level (The SeaRISE Project). J. Glaciol. 59, 195-224 (2013).
19. Levermann, A. et al. Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models. Earth Syst. Dyn. 5, 271-293 (2014).
20. Levermann, A. et al. Themultimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 13745-13750 (2013).
21. Naish, T. et al. Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations. Nature 458, 322-328 (2009).
22. Pollard, D. & DeConto, R. M. Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years. Nature 458, 329-332 (2009).
23. Schaeffer, M., Hare, W., Rahmstorf, S. & Vermeer, M. Long-term sea-level rise implied by1.5 uCand2uCwarming levels. Nature Clim. Change 2, 867-870 (2012).
24. Bueler, E. & Brown, J. Shallow shelf approximation as a "sliding law" in a thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model. J. Geophys. Res. 114, F03008 (2009).
25. Winkelmann, R. et al. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description. Cryosphere 5, 715-726 (2010).
26. Feldmann, J. & Levermann, A. Interaction of marine ice-sheet instabilities in two drainage basins: simple scaling of geometry and transition time. Cryosphere 9, 631-645 (2015).
27. Feldmann, J., Albrecht, T., Khroulev, C., Pattyn, F. & Levermann, A. Resolutiondependent performance of grounding linemotion ina shallowmodel compared to a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison. J. Glaciol. 60, 353-360 (2014).
28. Clarke, G. K., Nitsan, U. & Paterson, W. Strain heating and creep instability in glaciers and ice sheets. Rev. Geophys. 15, 235-247 (1977).
29. Winkelmann, R., Levermann, A., Frieler, K. & Martin, M. Increased future ice discharge fromAntarctica owing to higher snowfall. Nature 492, 239-242 (2012).
30. Meinshausen, M. et al. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 uC. Nature 458, 1158-1162 (2009).
31. Favier, L. et al. Retreat of Pine Island Glacier controlled by marine ice-sheet instability. Nature Clim. Change 4, 117-121 (2014).
32. Cornford, S. et al. Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate. Cryosphere 9, 1579-1600 (2015).
33. Schoof, C. A variational approach to ice streamflow. J. Fluid Mech. 556, 227-251 (2006).
34. Leguy, G. R., Asay-Davis, X. S. & Lipscomb, W. H. Parameterization of basal friction near grounding lines in a one-dimensional ice sheet model. Cryosphere 8, 1239-1259 (2014).
35. Tsai, V. C., Stewart, A. L. & Thompson, A. F. Marine ice-sheet profiles and stability under Coulomb basal conditions. J. Glaciol. 61, 205-215 (2015).
36. Holland,D.M.&Jenkins, A.Modeling thermodynamic ice-ocean interactions at the base of an ice shelf. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 29, 1787-1800 (1999).
37. Albrecht, T. & Levermann, A. Fracture field for large-scale ice dynamics. J. Glaciol. 58, 165-176 (2012).
38. Levermann, A. et al. Kinematic first-order calving law implies potential for abrupt ice-shelf retreat. Cryosphere 6, 273-286 (2012).
39. Bueler, E.D., Lingle, C. S.&Brown, J. Fast computation of a viscoelastic deformable Earth model for ice-sheet simulations. Ann. Glaciol. 46, 97-105 (2007).
40. Gomez, N., Pollard, D., Mitrovica, J. X., Huybers, P. & Clark, P. U. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model. J. Geophys. Res. 117, F01013 (2012).
41. Lenaerts, J., van den Broeke, M., van de Berg, W., van Meijgaard, E. & Munneke, P. A new, high-resolution surfacemass balancemap of Antarctica (1979-2010) based on regional atmospheric climatemodeling. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L04501(2012).
42. Comiso, J. Variability andtrends inAntarctic surface temperatures fromin situ and satellite infra-red measurements. J. Clim. 13, 1674-1696 (2000).
43. Le Brocq, A., Payne, A. & Vieli, A. An improved Antarctic dataset for high resolution numerical ice sheet models (ALBMAP v1). Earth Syst. Sci. Data 2, 247-260 (2010).
44. 2 fromthe genesis version-2 global climate model. J. Clim. 10, 871-900 (1997).
45. Pal, J. S. et al. Regional climate modeling for the developing world: the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 88, 1395-1409 (2007).
46. Martin, M. A., Levermann, A. & Winkelmann, R. Comparing ice discharge through West Antarctic Gateways: Weddell vs. Amundsen Sea warming. Cryosphere Discuss. 9, 1705-1733 (2015).
47. Zickfeld, K. et al.Long-termclimate change commitmentandreversibility: anEMIC intercomparison. J. Clim. 26, 5782-5809 (2013).
48. Frieler, K. et al. Consistent evidence of increasing Antarctic accumulation with warming. Nature Clim. Change 5, 348-352 (2015).
49. Golledge,N.R., Fogwill,C. J.,Mackintosh,A.N.&Buckley,K.M.Dynamics of the Last Glacial Maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 109, 16052-16056 (2012).
50. Golledge, N. et al. Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning. Nature Commun. 5, 1-10 (2014).
51. Pollard, D. & DeConto, R. M. A simple inverse method for the distribution of basal sliding coefficients under ice sheets, applied to Antarctica. Cryosphere 6, 953-971 (2012).
52. Fretwell, P. et al. Bedmap2: improved ice bed, surface and thickness datasets for Antarctica. Cryosphere 7, 375-393 (2013).
53. Durand, G., Gagliardini, O., Zwinger, T., Le Meur, E. & Hindmarsh, R. C. Full Stokes modeling ofmarine ice sheets: influence of the grid size. Ann. Glaciol. 50, 109-114 (2009).
54. Pattyn, F. et al. Grounding-line migration in plan-view marine ice-sheet models: results of the ice2seaMISMIP3d intercomparison. J. Glaciol. 59, 410-422 (2013).
55. Dutrieux, P. et al. Pine Island glacier ice shelf melt distributed at kilometre scales. Cryosphere 7, 1543-1555 (2013).
56. Naish, T. & Zwartz, D. Palaeoclimate: looking back to the future. Nature Clim. Change 2, 317-318 (2012).
57. Graversen, R. G. & Wang, M. Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo. Clim. Dyn. 33, 629-643 (2009).
58. Masson-Delmotte, V. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds Stocker, T. et al.) 383-464 (2013).
59. Rignot, E., Mouginot, J. & Scheuchl, B. Ice flow of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Science 333, 1427-1430 (2011).