Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 42, Issue 17, 2015, Pages 7179-7186

  Gao, Yang ^a   Lu, Jian ^a   Leung, L Ruby ^a   Yang, Qing ^a   Hagos, Samson ^a   Qian, Yun ^a  

^a PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

atmospheric rivers; climate change; dynamical effects; increased moisture; thermodynamic effects

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; FIGHTER AIRCRAFT; MOISTURE; RIVERS; WATER VAPOR;

ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR; COUPLED MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT; DYNAMICAL EFFECTS; POLEWARD SHIFT; RATE OF INCREASE; SUBTROPICAL JET; THERMODYNAMIC EFFECT; THERMODYNAMICAL;

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; COUPLING; FALLOUT; FUTURE PROSPECT; JET; MOISTURE; RIVER SYSTEM; THERMODYNAMICS; WARMING; WATER VAPOR;

NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 84943366168     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: 19448007     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065435     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Barnes, E. A., and, L. Polvani, (2013), Response of the midlatitude jets, and of their variability, to increased greenhouse gases in the CMIP5 models, J. Clim., 26 (18), 7117-7135.
2. Caballero, R., and, P. L. Langen, (2005), The dynamic range of poleward energy transport in an atmospheric general circulation model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L02705, doi: 10.1029/2004GL02158.
3. Dacre, H. F., P. A. Clark, O. Martinez-Alvarado, M. A. Stringer, and, D. A. Lavers, (2015), How do atmospheric rivers form?, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00031.1.
4. Dettinger, M. D., (2011), Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California-A multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 47 (3), 514-523.
5. Dettinger, M. D., (2013), Atmospheric rivers as drought busters on the U.S. west coast, J. Hydrometeorol., 14 (6), 1721-1732.
6. Gao, Y., L. R. Leung, J. Lu, Y. Liu, M. Huang, and, Y. Qian, (2014), Robust spring drying in the southwestern U.S. and seasonal migration of wet/dry patterns in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1745-1751, doi: 10.1002/2014GL059562.
7. Hagos, S., L. R. Leung, Q. Yang, C. Zhao, and, J. Lu, (2015), Resolution and dynamical core dependence of atmospheric river frequency in global model simulations, J. Clim., 28 (7), 2764-2776.
8. Held, I. M., and, B. J. Soden, (2006), Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Clim., 19 (21), 5686-5699.
9. Jiang, T., K. J. Evans, Y. Deng, and, X. Dong, (2014), Intermediate frequency atmospheric disturbances: A dynamical bridge connecting western U.S. extreme precipitation with East Asian cold surges, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 3723-3735, doi: 10.1002/2013JD021209.
10. Lavers, D. A., and, G. Villarini, (2013), The nexus between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation across Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3259-3264, doi: 10.1002/grl.50636.
11. Lavers, D. A., R. P. Allan, E. F. Wood, G. Villarini, D. J. Brayshaw, and, A. J. Wade, (2011), Winter floods in Britain are connected to atmospheric rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23803, doi: 10.1029/2011GL049783.
12. Lavers, D. A., G. Villarini, R. P. Allan, E. F. Wood, and, A. J. Wade, (2012), The detection of atmospheric rivers in atmospheric reanalyses and their links to British winter floods and the large-scale climatic circulation, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D20106, doi: 10.1029/2012JD018027.
13. Lavers, D. A., R. P. Allan, G. Villarini, B. Lloyd-Hughes, D. J. Brayshaw, and, A. J. Wade, (2013), Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain, Environ. Res. Lett., 8 (3), 034010.
14. Leung, L. R., and, Y. Qian, (2009), Atmospheric rivers induced heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S. simulated by the WRF regional climate model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L03820, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036445.
15. Lu, J., G. A. Vecchi, and, T. Reichler, (2007), Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06805, doi: 10.1029/2006GL028443.
16. Lu, J., L. Ruby Leung, Q. Yang, G. Chen, W. D. Collins, F. Li, Z. Jason Hou, and, X. Feng, (2014), The robust dynamical contribution to precipitation extremes in idealized warming simulations across model resolutions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2971-2978, doi: 10.1002/2014GL059532.
17. Moss, R. H., et al., (2010), The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747-756.
18. Neelin, J. D., B. Langenbrunner, J. E. Meyerson, A. Hall, and, N. Berg, (2013), California winter precipitation change under global warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble, J. Clim., 26 (17), 6238-6256.
19. Neiman, P. J., F. M. Ralph, G. A. Wick, J. D. Lundquist, and, M. D. Dettinger, (2008), Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the west coast of North America based on eight years of SSM/I satellite observations, J. Hydrometeorol., 9 (1), 22-47.
20. Neiman, P. J., L. J. Schick, F. M. Ralph, M. Hughes, and, G. A. Wick, (2011), Flooding in western Washington: The connection to atmospheric rivers, J. Hydrometeorol., 12 (6), 1337-1358.
21. Payne, A. E., and, G. Magnusdottir, (2014), Dynamics of landfalling atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in 30 years of MERRA reanalysis, J. Clim., 27 (18), 7133-7150.
22. Ralph, F. M., and, M. D. Dettinger, (2012), Historical and national perspectives on extreme west coast precipitation associated with atmospheric rivers during December 2010, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93 (6), 783-790.
23. Ralph, F. M., P. J. Neiman, and, G. A. Wick, (2004), Satellite and CALJET aircraft observations of atmospheric rivers over the eastern North Pacific Ocean during the winter of 1997/98, Mon. Weather Rev., 132 (7), 1721-1745.
24. Ralph, F. M., P. J. Neiman, G. A. Wick, S. I. Gutman, M. D. Dettinger, D. R. Cayan, and, A. B. White, (2006), Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L13801, doi: 10.1029/2006GL026689.
25. Ralph, F. M., T. Coleman, P. J. Neiman, R. J. Zamora, and, M. D. Dettinger, (2013), Observed impacts of duration and seasonality of atmospheric-river landfalls on soil moisture and runoff in Coastal Northern California, J. Hydrometeorol., 14 (2), 443-459.
26. Rutz, J. J., W. J. Steenburgh, and, F. M. Ralph, (2014), Climatological characteristics of atmospheric rivers and their inland penetration over the Western United States, Mon. Weather Rev., 142 (2), 905-921.
27. Ryoo, J.-M., Y. Kaspi, D. W. Waugh, G. N. Kiladis, D. E. Waliser, E. J. Fetzer, and, J. Kim, (2013), Impact of Rossby wave breaking on U.S. West Coast winter precipitation during ENSO events, J. Clim., 26 (17), 6360-6382.
28. Ryoo, J.-M., D. E. Waliser, D. W. Waugh, S. Wong, E. J. Fetzer, and, I. Fung, (2015), Classification of atmospheric river events on the U.S. West Coast using a trajectory model, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 3007-3028, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022023.
29. Seager, R., N. Naik, and, G. A. Vecchi, (2010), Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming, J. Clim., 23 (17), 4651-4668.
30. Shepherd, T. G., (2014), Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections, Nat. Geosci., 7 (10), 703-708.
31. Simpson, I. R., T. A. Shaw, and, R. Seager, (2014), A diagnosis of the seasonally and longitudinally varying midlatitude circulation response to global warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 71 (7), 2489-2515.
32. Vuuren, D., et al., (2011), The representative concentration pathways: An overview, Clim. Change, 109 (1-2), 5-31.
33. Warner, M. D., C. F. Mass, and, E. P. Salathé, (2015), Changes in winter atmospheric rivers along the North American west coast in CMIP5 climate models, J. Hydrometeorol., 16 (1), 118-128.
34. Wick, G. A., P. J. Neiman, and, F. M. Ralph, (2013), Description and validation of an automated objective technique for identification and characterization of the integrated water vapor signature of atmospheric rivers, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 51 (4), 2166-2176.
35. Witze, A., (2015), California study targets rivers in the sky, Nature, 517 (7535), 424-425.
36. Zhu, Y., and, R. E. Newell, (1998), A proposed algorithm for moisture fluxes from atmospheric rivers, Mon. Weather Rev., 126 (3), 725-735.