Evaluating community impacts of ocean acidification using qualitative network models

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Volumn 536, Issue , 2015, Pages 11-24

  Reum, Jonathan C P ^a   Ferriss, Bridget E ^a,d   McDonald, P Sean ^a   Farrell, Dara M ^b   Harvey, Chris J ^c   Klinger, Terrie ^a   Levin, Phillip S ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

^b University of Washington   (United States)

^c NORTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON SCHOOL OF MEDICINE   (United States)

Author keywords

Aquaculture; Climate change; Community interactions; Global warming; Indirect effects; Loop analysis; Shellfish

Indexed keywords

ACIDIFICATION; BIVALVE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMMUNITY RESPONSE; CRAB; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ESTUARINE ENVIRONMENT; GASTROPOD; GLOBAL WARMING; GRASS; PHYTOPLANKTON; PRIMARY PRODUCTION; SALMONID; SHELLFISH CULTURE;

UNITED STATES; WASHINGTON [UNITED STATES]; WILLAPA BAY;

BIVALVIA; CRASSOSTREA GIGAS; DECAPODA (CRUSTACEA); GASTROPODA; ONCORHYNCHUS TSHAWYTSCHA;

EID: 84943194375     PISSN: 01718630     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/meps11417     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. Ainsworth C, Samhouri J, Busch D, Cheung WW, Dunne J, Okey TA (2011) Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries. ICES J Mar Sci 68: 1217-1229
2. Banas N, Hickey B, Newton J, Ruesink J (2007) Tidal exchange, bivalve grazing, and patterns of primary production in Willapa Bay, Washington, USA. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 341: 123-139
3. Barton A, Hales B, Waldbusser GG, Langdon C, Feely RA (2012) The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, shows negative correlation to naturally elevated carbon dioxide levels: implications for near-term ocean acidification effects. Limnol Oceanogr 57: 698-710
4. Bender EA, Case TJ, Gilpin ME (1984) Perturbation experiments in community ecology: theory and practice. Ecology 65: 1-13
5. Borges AV, Abril G (2011) Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries. In: Wolanski E, McClusky D (eds) Treatise on estuarine and coastal science. Vol 5: Biogeochemistry. Waltham, Academic Press
6. Carey MP, Levin PS, Townsend H, Minello TJ and others (2014) Characterizing coastal foodwebs with qualitative links to bridge the gap between the theory and the practice of ecosystem-based management. ICES J Mar Sci 71: 713-724
7. Castillo GC, Li HW, Rossignol PA (2000) Absence of overall feedback in a benthic estuarine community: a system potentially buffered from impacts of biological invasions. Estuaries 23: 275-291
8. 2 as a resource among competitors for ecosystem dominance. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 368: 20120442
9. Dambacher JM, Ramos-Jiliberto R (2007) Understanding and predicting effects of modified interactions through a qualitative analysis of community structure. Q Rev Biol 82: 227-250
10. Dambacher JM, Li HW, Rossignol PA (2002) Relevance of community structure in assessing indeterminacy of ecological predictions. Ecology 83: 1372-1385
11. Dambacher JM, Li HW, Rossignol PA (2003) Qualitative predictions in model ecosystems. Ecol Model 161: 79-93
12. Dambacher JM, Brewer DT, Dennis DM, Macintyre M, Foale S (2007) Qualitative modelling of gold mine impacts on Lihir Island's socioeconomic system and reefedge fish community. Environ Sci Technol 41: 555-562
13. Dambacher JM, Gaughan DJ, Rochet MJ, Rossignol PA, Trenkel VM (2009) Qualitative modelling and indicators of exploited ecosystems. Fish Fish 10: 305-322
14. Dambacher JM, Young JW, Olson RJ, Allain V and others (2010) Analyzing pelagic food webs leading to top predators in the Pacific Ocean: a graph-theoretic approach. Prog Oceanogr 86: 152-165
15. Duarte CM, Hendriks IE, Moore TS, Olsen YS and others (2013) Is ocean acidification an open-ocean syndrome? Understanding anthropogenic impacts on seawater pH. Estuar Coast 36: 221-236
16. Dupont S, Ortega-Martínez O, Thorndyke M (2010) Impact of near-future ocean acidification on echinoderms. Ecotoxicology 19: 449-462
17. Fabricius K, De'ath G, Noonan S, Uthicke S (2014) Ecological effects of ocean acidification and habitat complexity on reef-associated macroinvertebrate communities. Proc R Soc B 281: 20132479
18. 2 may rival its direct effects. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 492: 85-95
19. Feely RA, Sabine CL, Hernandez-Ayon M, Ianson D, Hales B (2008) Evidence for upwelling of corrosive 'acidified' water onto the continental shelf. Science 320: 1490-1492
20. 2 world. Oceanography 22: 36-47
21. Feldman KL, Armstrong DA, Dumbauld BR, De Witt TH, Doty DC (2000) Oysters, crabs, and burrowing shrimp: review of an environmental conflict over aquatic resources and pesticide use in Washington State's (USA) coastal estuaries. Estuaries 23: 141-176
22. Ferraro SP, Cole FA (2007) Benthic macrofauna-habitat associations in Willapa Bay, Washington, USA. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 71: 491-507
23. Fulton EA, Smith AD, Johnson CR (2003) Effect of complexity on marine ecosystem models. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 253: 1-16
24. Gaylord B, Kroeker KJ, Sunday JM, Anderson KM and others (2015) Ocean acidification through the lens of ecological theory. Ecology 96: 3-15
25. Griffith GP, Fulton EA, Gorton R, Richardson AJ (2012) Predicting interactions among fishing, ocean warming, and ocean acidification in a marine system with wholeecosystem models. Conserv Biol 26: 1145-1152
26. Hale R, Calosi P, McNeill L, Mieszkowska N, Widdicombe S (2011) Predicted levels of future ocean acidification and temperature rise could alter community structure and biodiversity in marine benthic communities. Oikos 120: 661-674
27. Hall-Spencer JM, Rodolfo-Metalpa R, Martin S, Ransome E and others (2008) Volcanic carbon dioxide vents show ecosystem effects of ocean acidification. Nature 454: 96-99
28. Harvey BP, Gwynn-Jones D, Moore PJ (2013) Meta-analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming. Ecol Evol 3: 1016-1030
29. Hendriks IE, Duarte CM, Álvarez M (2010) Vulnerability of marine biodiversity to ocean acidification: a meta-analysis. Estuar Coast Shelf Sci 86: 157-164
30. Hettinger A, Sanford E, Hill TM, Russell AD and others (2012) Persistent carry-over effects of planktonic exposure to ocean acidification in the Olympia oyster. Ecology 93: 2758-2768
31. Hettinger A, Sanford E, Hill TM, Lenz EA, Russell AD, Gaylord B (2013) Larval carry-over effects from ocean acidification persist in the natural environment. Glob Change Biol 19: 3317-3326
32. Hickey BM, Banas NS (2003) Oceanography of the US Pacific Northwest Coastal Ocean and estuaries with application to coastal ecology. Estuaries 26: 1010-1031
33. Hill SL, Watters GM, Punt AE, McAllister MK, Quéré CL, Turner J (2007) Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries. Fish Fish 8: 315-336
34. Hosack GR, Dumbauld BR, Ruesink JL, Armstrong DA (2006) Habitat associations of estuarine species: comparisons of intertidal mudflat, seagrass (Zostera marina), and oyster (Crassostrea gigas) habitats. Estuar Coast 29: 1150-1160
35. Kaplan IC, Levin PS, Burden M, Fulton EA (2010) Fishing catch shares in the face of global change: a framework for integrating cumulative impacts and single species management. Can J Fish Aquat Sci 67: 1968-1982
36. Kennish MJ (2002) Environmental threats and environmental future of estuaries. Environ Conserv 29: 78-107
37. Koch M, Bowes G, Ross C, Zhang XH (2013) Climate change and ocean acidification effects on seagrasses and marine macroalgae. Glob Change Biol 19: 103-132
38. Kroeker KJ, Kordas RL, Crim R, Hendriks IE and others (2013a) Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming. Glob Change Biol 19: 1884-1896
39. Kroeker KJ, Micheli F, Gambi MC (2013b) Ocean acidification causes ecosystem shifts via altered competitive interactions. Nat Clim Change 3: 156-159
40. Kroeker KJ, Sanford E, Jellison BM, Gaylord B (2014) Predicting the effects of ocean acidification on predatorprey interactions: a conceptual framework based on coastal molluscs. Biol Bull 226: 211-222
41. 2 on early development of the oyster Crassostrea gigas. Aquat Biol 1: 91-98
42. Lane P, Levins R (1977) The dynamics of aquatic systems II. The effects of nutrient enrichment on model plankton communities. Limnol Oceanogr 22: 454-471
43. Le Quesne WJ, Pinnegar JK (2012) The potential impacts of ocean acidification: scaling from physiology to fisheries. Fish Fish 13: 333-344
44. Leathwick JR, Rowe D, Richardson J, Elith J, Hastie T (2005) Using multivariate adaptive regression splines to predict the distributions of New Zealand's freshwater diadromous fish. Freshw Biol 50: 2034-2052
45. Legendre P, Legendre L (1998) Numerical ecology, 2 edn. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam
46. Levins R (1974) The qualitative analysis of partially specified systems. Ann N Y Acad Sci 231: 123-138
47. Levins R (1998) Qualitative mathematics for understanding, prediction, and intervention in complex ecosystems. In: Raport D, Costanza R, Epstein P, Gaudet C, Levins R (eds) Ecosystem health. Blackwell Science, Malden, MA, p 178-204
48. Link JS, Ihde T, Harvey C, Gaichas SK and others (2012) Dealing with uncertainty in ecosystem models: the paradox of use for living marine resource management. Prog Oceanogr 102: 102-114
49. Melbourne-Thomas J, Wotherspoon S, Raymond B, Constable A (2012) Comprehensive evaluation of model uncertainty in qualitative network analyses. Ecol Monogr 82: 505-519
50. Melbourne-Thomas J, Constable A, Wotherspoon S, Raymond B (2013) Testing paradigms of ecosystem change under climate warming in Antarctica. PLoS ONE 8: e55093
51. Metcalf SJ (2010) Qualitative models to complement quantitative ecosystem models for the analysis of data-limited marine ecosystems and fisheries. Rev Fish Sci 18: 248-265
52. Milborrow S (2014) earth: Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. R package version 4.0.0. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=earth, accessed 15 October 2014
53. Morris DJ, Speirs DC, Cameron AI, Heath MR (2014) Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos. Ecol Model 273: 251-263
54. Oksanen J, Blanchet FG, Kindt R, Legendre R and others (2013). vegan: Community Ecology Package. R package version 2.0-10. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package= vegan, accessed 15 October 2014
55. Orr J (2011) Recent and future changes in ocean carbonate chemistry. In: Gattuso J, Hansson L (eds) Ocean acidification. Oxford University Press, New York, NY
56. Ortiz M, Wolff M (2002) Application of loop analysis to benthic systems in northern Chile for the elaboration of sustainable management strategies. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 242: 15-27
57. Ortiz M, Wolff M, Mendo J (2002) Qualitative modelling for the development of a sustainable management strategy for the Peruvian scallop Argopecten purpuratus (Lamarck 1819). Aquat Conserv 12: 273-287
58. 2 enrichment: possible impacts of climate change and potential for remediation of coastal habitats. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 344: 1-13
59. Parker L, Ross PM, O'Connor WA (2011) Populations of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, vary in response to ocean acidification. Mar Biol 158: 689-697
60. Peck LS, Clark MS, Power D, Reis J, Batista FM, Harper EM (2015) Acidification effects on biofouling communities: winners and losers. Glob Change Biol 21: 1907-1913
61. Plaganyi EE, Butterworth DS (2004) A critical look at the potential of Ecopath with Ecosim to assist in practical fisheries management. Afr J Mar Sci 26: 261-287
62. Plagányi ÉE, Bell JD, Bustamante RH, Dambacher JM and others (2011) Modelling climate-change effects on Australian and Pacific aquatic ecosystems: a review of analytical tools and management implications. Mar Freshw Res 62: 1132-1147
63. Puccia CJ, Levins R (1985) Qualitative modeling of complex systems. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
64. R Core Team (2014). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. www.r-project.org
65. Raymond B, McInnes J, Dambacher JM, Way S, Bergstrom DM (2011) Qualitative modelling of invasive species eradication on subantarctic Macquarie Island. J Appl Ecol 48: 181-191
66. Reum JCP, McDonald PS, Ferriss BE, Farrell D, Harvey CJ, Levin PS (2015) Qualitative network models in support of ecosystem approaches to bivalve aquaculture. ICES J Mar Sci (in press), doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsv119
67. Ruesink JL, Feist BE, Harvey CJ, Hong JS, Trimble AC, Wisehart LM (2006) Changes in productivity associated with four introduced species: ecosystem transformation of a 'pristine' estuary. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 311:203-215
68. Ruesink JL, Yang S, Trimble AC (2015) Variability in carbon availability and eelgrass (Zostera marina) biometrics along an estuarine gradient in Willapa Bay, WA, USA. Estuar Coast (in press) doi: 10.1007/s12237-014-9933-z
69. Russell BD, Harley CD, Wernberg T, Mieszkowska N, Widdicombe S, Hall-Spencer JM, Connell SD (2012) Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems. Biol Lett 8: 164-166
70. Sanford E, Gaylord B, Hettinger A, Lenz EA, Meyer K, Hill TM (2014) Ocean acidification increases the vulnerability of native oysters to predation by invasive snails. Proc R Soc B 281: 20132681
71. Scavia D, Field JC, Boesch DF, Buddemeier RW and others (2002) Climate change impacts on US coastal and marine ecosystems. Estuaries 25: 149-164
72. 2-enrichment effects on eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) and bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana (Mert.) P & R.). Water Air Soil Pollut 88: 383-391
73. 2 causes developmental delay in early larval Pacific oysters, Crassostrea gigas. Mar Biol 160: 1973-1982
74. Waldbusser GG, Brunner EL, Haley BA, Hales B, Langdon CJ, Prahl FG (2013) A developmental and energetic basis linking larval oyster shell formation to acidification sensitivity. Geophys Res Lett 40: 2171-2176
75. Whitlatch RB, Osman RW (1994) A qualiatative approach to managing shellfish populations: assessing the relative importance of trophic relationships between species. J Shellfish Res 13: 229-242
76. Wootton JT (1994) The nature and consequences of indirect effects in ecological communities. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 25: 443-466
77. Wootton JT, Pfister CA, Forester JD (2008) Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a highresolution multi-year dataset. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 18848-18853
78. Yodzis P (1988) The indeterminacy of ecological interactions a perceived through perturbation experiments. Ecology 69: 508-515
79. 2 enrichment on productivity and light requirements of eelgrass. Plant Physiol 115: 599-607