Assessment of impact of climate change on the blue and green water resources in large river basins in China

Environmental Earth Sciences

Volumn 74, Issue 8, 2015, Pages 6381-6394

  Chen, Cui ^a   Hagemann, Stefan ^b   Liu, Junguo ^c,d  

^a HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH UFZ   (Germany)

^b MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGY   (Germany)

^c BEIJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY   (China)

^d INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

Author keywords

Blue and green water resources; China; Climate change; Hydrology; Large river basins

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; GAS EMISSIONS; GREENHOUSE GASES; HYDROLOGY; RIVERS; WATERSHEDS;

CHINA; ECOLOGICAL SECURITY; HEILONGJIANG RIVERS; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGY MODELING; LARGE RIVERS; MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE; OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS;

WATER RESOURCES;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL APPROACH; EMISSION; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; FLUX MEASUREMENT; FOOD SECURITY; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; GLOBAL CHANGE; GREENHOUSE GAS; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; HYDROLOGY; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RIVER BASIN; SUSTAINABILITY; TEMPERATURE; WATER AVAILABILITY; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE;

CHINA;

EID: 84942756086     PISSN: 18666280     EISSN: 18666299     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12665-014-3782-8     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. Alcamo J, Henrichs T, Rösch T (2000) World water in 2025: Global modelling and scenario analysis for the world commission on water for the 21st Century. Kassel World Water Series 2. University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany
2. Alcamo J, Floerke M, Maerker M (2007) Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes. Hydrol Sci 52(2):247–275
3. Arnell NW (1999) The effect of climate change on hydrological regimes in europe: a continental perspective. Global Environ Change 9:5–23
4. Bergström S (1992) The HBV model: its structure and applications. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Report 4, Sweden
5. Brutsaert W, Parlange MB (1998) Hydrologic cycle explains the evaporation paradox. Nature 396:30. doi:10.1038/23845
6. Chebotarev AI (1977) Compendium of meteorology v II: Part 1 - general hydrology. World Meteorological Organisation, Geneva
7. Chen C, Haerter JO, Hagemann S, Piani C (2011) On the contribution of statistical bias correction to the uncertainty in the projected hydrological cycle. Geophys Res Lett 38:L20403. doi:10.1029/2011GL049318
8. Christensen NS, Dennis PL, Palmer RN (2004) The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado river basin. Clim Change 62:337–363
9. Déqué M, Ph Piedelievre J (1995) High resolution climate simulation over Europe. Climate Dyn 11:321–339
10. Déqué M, Dreveton C, Braun A, Cariolle D (1994) The ARPEGE/IFS atmosphere model: a contribution to the French community climate modelling. Climate Dyn 10:249–266
11. Döll P, Siebert S (2002) Global modeling of irrigation water requirements. Water Resour Res 38(4):1037
12. Döll P, Kaspar F, Alcamo J (1999) Computation of global water availability and water use at the scale of large drainage basins. Mathematische Geologie 4:111–118
13. Fader M, Gerten D, Thammer M, Heinke J, Lotze-Campen H, Lucht W, Cramer W (2011) Internal and external green-blue agricultural water footprints of nations, and related water and land savings through trade. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:1641–1660
14. Falkenmark M (1995) Land-water linkages: a synopsis, in land and water integration and river basin management. Land Water Bull 1:15–16
15. Falkenmark M, Rockström J (2006) The new blue and green water paradigm: breaking new ground for water resources planning and management. J Water Resour Plann Manage 132(3):129–132
16. Fichefet T, Morales Maqueda MA (1997) Sensitivity of a global sea ice model to the treatment of ice thermodynamics and dynamics. J Geophys Res 102:12609–12646. doi:10.1029/97JC00480
17. Gerten D, Bondeau A, Hoff H, Lucht W, Schaphoff S, Smith P (2004) Assessment of ‘green’ water fluxes with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. In: Webb B, Arnell N, Onof C, MacIntyre N, Gurney R, Kirby C (eds) Hydrology: Science and Practice for the 21st Century. British Hydrological Society, British
18. Gleick PH (1999) Studies from the water sector of the national assessment. J Am Water Resour Assoc 35:1297–1300
19. Goosse H, Fichefet T (1999) Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: a model study. J Geophys Res 104:23337–23355
20. Haddeland I, Clark DB, Franssen W, Ludwig F, Voß F, Arnell NW, Bertrand N, Best M, Folwell S, Gerten D, Gomes S, Gosling SN, Hagemann S, Hanasaki N, Harding R, Heinke J, Kabat P, Koirala S, Oki T, Polcher J, Stacke T, Viterbo P, Weedon GP, Yeh P (2011) Multi-model estimate of the global terrestrial water balance: setup and first results. J Hydrometeor. doi:10.1175/2011JHM1324.1
21. Haddeland I, Heinke J, Voß F, Eisner S, Chen C, Hagemann S, Ludwig F (2012) Effects of climate model radiation, humidity and wind estimates on hydrological simulations. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16:305–318. doi:10.5194/hess-16-305-2012
22. Haddeland I, Heinke J, Biemans H, Eisner S, Flörke M, Hanasaki N, Konzmann M, Ludwig F, Masaki Y, Schewe J, Stacke T, Tessler Z, Wada Y, Wisser D (2014) Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change. PNAS 111:3251–3256
23. Haerter JO, Hagemann S, Moseley C, Piani C (2011) Climate model bias correction and the role of timescales. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:1065–1079. doi:10.5194/hess-15-1065-2011
24. Hagemann S (2002) An improved land surface parameter dataset for global and regional climate models. Max Planck Institute for Meteor Rep, 336, Hamburg, Germany (http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/publikationen.html)
25. Hagemann S, Dümenil L (1998) A parameterization of the lateral waterflow for the global scale. Climate Dyn 14:17–31
26. Hagemann S et al (2003) Improving a subgrid runoff parameterization scheme for climate model2s by the use of high resolution data derived from satellite observations. Climate Dyn 21:349–359
27. Hagemann S, Chen C, Härter JO, Heinke J, Gerten D, Piani C (2011) Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models. J Hydrometeorol. doi:10.1175/2011JHM1336.1
28. Hagemann S, Chen C, Clark DB, Folwell S, Gosling SN, Haddeland I, Hanasaki N, Heinke J, Ludwig F, Voss F, Wiltshire AJ (2013) Climate change impact on available water resources obtained using multiple global climate and hydrology models. Earth Syst Dynam 4:129–144. doi:10.5194/esd-4-129-2013
29. Helbig C, Bauer H-S, Rink K, Wulfmeyer V, Frank M, Kolditz O (2014) Concept and workflow for 3D visualization of atmospheric data in a virtual reality environment for analytical approaches. Environ Earth Sci. doi:10.1007/s12665-014-3136-6
30. Hoff H, Falkenmark M, Gerten D, Gordon L, Karlberg L, Rocksstroem J (2010) Greening the global water system. J Hydrol 384:177–186
31. Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Xiaosu D (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
32. Hourdin F, Musat I, Bony S, Braconnot P, Codron F, Dufresne JL, Fairhead L, Filiberti MA, Friedlingstein P, Grandpeix JY, Krinner G, LeVan P, Li ZX, Lott F (2006) The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection. Climate Dyn 27:787–813
33. Huang F, Xia ZQ, Li F, Wu TB (2013) Assessing sediment regime alteration of the upper Yangtze River. Environ Earth Sci 70:2349–2357. doi:10.1007/s12665-013-2381-4
34. IPCC (1996) Climate change 1995. The science of climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
35. IWMI (2000) World’s water supply and demand 1995–2025. International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka
36. Jiao WX, Xu ZM (2013) A distributed runoff model for the mountainous region of the Heihe River Basin (China) based on the spatial modeling environment (SME) II: model calibration and validation. Environ Earth Sci 69:2189–2197. doi:10.1007/s12665-012-2047-7
37. Jungclaus JH, Botzet M, Haak H, Keenlyside N, Luo JJ, Latif M, Marotzke J, Mikolajewicz U, Roeckner E (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Climate 19:3952–3972
38. Lehner B, Henrichs T, Döll P, Alcamo J (2001) EuroWasser: model-based assessment of european water resources and hydrology in the face of global change. Kassel World Water Series 5. Wissenschaftliches Zentrum für Umweltsystemforschung, Universität Gesamthochschule Kassel, Kassel, Germany
39. Li FP, Xu ZX, Feng YC, Liu M, Liu WF (2013) Changes of land cover in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin from 1985 to 2005. Environ Earth Sci 68:181–188. doi:10.1007/s12665-012-1730-z
40. Liu J, Yang H (2010) Spatially explicit assessment of global green and blue water uses in cropland. J Hydrol. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.024
41. Liu J, Zehnder AJB, Yang H (2007a) Historical trends in China’s virtual water trade. Water Int 32(1):78–90
42. Liu J et al (2007b) GEPIC: modelling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale. Agric Syst 94(2):478–493
43. Liu J, Zehnder AJB, Yang H (2009) Global consumptive water use for crop production: the importance of green water and virtual water. Water Resour Res 45:W05428. doi:10.1029/2007WR006051
44. Liu J, Folberth C, Yang H, Röckström J, Abbaspour K, Zehnder AJB (2013a) A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use. PLoS ONE 8(2):e57750. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0057750
45. Liu J, Zang C, Tian S, Liu J, Yang H, Jia S, You L, Liu B, Zhang M (2013b) Water conservancy projects in China: achievements, challenges and way forward. Glob Environ Change 23(3):633–643
46. Madec G, Delecluse P, Imbard M and Lévy C (1998) OPA version 8.1 Ocean general circulation model reference manual, Notes du Pôle de Modélisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, no 11, pp 91 (Available from Laboratoire d’Océanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, Université Paris VI, Paris 75252, France)
47. Nakićenović N et al (2000) IPCC special report on emissions scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
48. Oki T, Kanae S (2006) Global hydrological cycles and world water resources. Science 313(5790):1068–1072
49. Piani C, Weedon GP, Best M, Gomes S, Viterbo P, Hagemann S, Haerter JO (2010) Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models. J Hydrol 395:199–215
50. Postel SL, Daily GC, Ehrlich PR (1996) Human appropriation of renewable fresh water. Science 271(5250):785–788
51. Rockström J (1999) On-farm green water estimates as a tool for increased food production in water scarce regions. Phys Chem Earth Part B 24(4):375–383
52. Roeckner E, Bäuml G, Bonaventura L, Brokopf R, Esch M, Giorgetta M, Hagemann S, Kirchner SI, Kornblueh L, Manzini E, Rhodin A, Schlese U, Schulzweida U, Tompkins A (2003) The atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Part I: Model description. Max Planck Institute for Meteor Rep, 349, pp 127 (available from MPI for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany)
53. Rost S, Gerten D, Bondeau A, Lucht W, Rohwer J, Schaphoff S (2008) Agricultural green and blue water consumption and its influence on the global water system. Water Resour Res 44:W09405. doi:10.1029/2007WR006331
54. Royer JF, Cariolle D, Chauvin F, Déqué M, Douville H, Hu RM, Planton S, Rascol A, Ricard JL, Salas-Mélia D, Sevault F, Simon P, Somot S, Tytéca S, Terray L, Valcke S (2002) Simulation des changements climatiques au cours du 21-ième siècle incluant l’ozone stratosphérique. C R Geophys 334:147–154
55. Salas-Mélia D (2002) A global coupled sea ice-ocean model. Ocean Model 4:137–172
56. Savenije HHG (2000) Water scarcity indicators; the deception of the numbers. Phys Chem Earth 25(3):199–204
57. Scanlon BR, Jolly I, Sophocleous M, Zhang L (2007a) Global impacts of conversion from natural to agricultural ecosystem on water resources: quantity versus quality. Water Resour Res 43:W03437
58. Scanlon TS, Caylor KK, Levin SA, Rodriguez-Iturbe I (2007b) Positive feedbacks promote power-law clustering of Kalahari vegetation. Nature 449:209–212
59. Schmitz C, Lotze-Campen H, Gerten D, Dietrich JP, Biewald A, Bodirsky B, Popp A (2013) Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand. Water Resour Res 49:3601–3617
60. Schuol J, Abbaspour KC, Yang H, Srinivasan R, Zehnder AJB (2008) Modeling blue and green water availability in Africa. Water Resour Res 44:W07406. doi:10.1029/2007WR006609
61. Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor MMB, Miller Jr HL, Chen Z (Eds) (2007) Climate change. The physical science basis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 996
62. Vörösmarty CJ, Green P, Salisbury J, Lammers RB (2000) Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth. Science 289(5477):284–288
63. Vörösmarty CJ, Douglas EM, Green PA, Revenga C (2005) Geospatial indicators of emerging water stress: an application to Africa. Ambio 34(3):230–236
64. Weedon GP et al (2011) Creation of the WATCH Forcing Data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century. J Hydrometeol Dol. doi:10.1175/2011JHM1369.1
65. Wigmosta MS, Vail L, Lettenmaier DP (1994) A distributed hydrology vegetation model for complex terrain. Water Resour Res 30:1665–1679
66. Xiao SC, Xiao HL, Peng XM, Tian QY (2014) Daily and seasonal stem radial activity of Populus euphratica and its association with hydroclimatic factors in the lower reaches of China’s Heihe River basin. Environ Earth Sci 72:609–621. doi:10.1007/s12665-013-2982-y
67. Yang H, Wang L, Zehnder AJB (2007) Water scarcity and food trade in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries. Food Policy 32(5–6):585–605
68. Yao WY, Xu JX (2013) Impact of human activity and climate change on suspended sediment load: the upper Yellow River, China. Environ Earth Sci 70:1389–1403. doi:10.1007/s12665-013-2223-4
69. Yue TX et al (2013) Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy. Clim Change 120:137–151
70. Zang C, Liu J, van der Velde M, Fraxner F (2012) Assessment of spatial and temporal patterns of green and blue water flows under natural conditions in inland river basins in northwest China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(8):2859–2870
71. Zang C, Liu J, Jiang L, Gerten D (2013) Impacts of human activities and climate variability on green and blue water flows in the Heihe river basin in Northwest China. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 10:9477–9504
72. Zhao QD, Ye BS, Ding YJ, Zhang SQ, Yi SH, Wang J, Shangguan DH, Zhao CC, Han HD (2013) Coupling a glacier melt model to the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model for hydrological modeling in north-western China. Environ Earth Sci 68:87–101. doi:10.1007/s12665-012-1718-8