Evaluation of shallow landslide-triggering scenarios through a physically based approach: An example of application in the southern Messina area (northeastern Sicily, Italy)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Volumn 15, Issue 9, 2015, Pages 2091-2109

  Schiliro L ^a   Esposito, C ^a   Scarascia Mugnozza, G ^a  

^a SAPIENZA UNIVERSITY OF ROME   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; LANDSLIDE; MODEL VALIDATION; PROBABILITY; RELIABILITY ANALYSIS; SLOPE DYNAMICS; SLOPE FAILURE; SLOPE STABILITY;

ITALY; MESSINA [SICILY]; SICILY;

EID: 84942134340     PISSN: 15618633     EISSN: 16849981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-15-2091-2015     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Antonioli, F., Kershaw, S., Rust, D., and Verrubbi, V.: Holocene sea-level change in Sicily and its implications for tectonic models: new data from the Taormina area, northeast Sicily, Mar. Geol., 196, 53-71, doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(03)00029-X, 2003.
2. Arnone, E., Pumo, D., Viola, F., Noto, L. V., and La Loggia, G.: Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2449-2458, doi:10.5194/hess-17-2449-2013, 2013.
3. Aronica, G. T., Brigandì, G., Marletta, C., and Manfrè, B.: Hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the flash flood event on 25 October 2007 in North-Eastern part of Sicily, Italy, Proceedings of Floodrisk 2008, Oxford, UK, 2008.
4. Aronica, G. T., Biondi, G., Brigandì, G., Cascone, E., Lanza, S., and Randazzo G.: Assessment and mapping of debris-flow risk in a small catchment in eastern Sicily through integrated numerical simulations and GIS, Phys. Chem. Earth, 49, 52-63, doi:10.1016/j.pce.2012.04.002, 2012.
5. Baum, R. L. and Godt, J. W.: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA, Landslides, 7, 259-272, doi:10.1007/s10346-009-0177-0, 2009.
6. Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., and Godt, J. W.: TRIGRS - A Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis, US Geological Survey, Open-File Report 02-424, 61 pp., 2002.
7. Baum, R. L., Savage, W. Z., and Godt, J. W.: TRIGRS - A Fortran program for transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis, version 2.0, US Geological Survey, Open-File Report 2008-1159, 75 pp., 2008.
8. Baum, R. L., Godt, J. W., and Savage, W. Z.: Estimating the timing and location of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient, unsaturated infiltration, J. Geophys. Res., 115, F03013, doi:10.1029/2009JF001321, 2010.
9. Berti, M., Martina, M. L. V., Franceschini, S., Pignone, S., Simoni, A., and Pizziolo, M.: Probabilistic rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a Bayesian approach, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 117, F04006, doi:10.1029/2012JF002367, 2012.
10. Bonaccorso, B., Cancelliere, A., and Rossi, G.: Detecting trends of extreme rainfall series in Sicily, Adv. Geosci., 2, 7-11, doi:10.5194/adgeo-2-7-2005, 2005.
11. Brunetti, M. T., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., Luciani, S., Valigi, D., and Guzzetti, F.: Rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 447-458, doi:10.5194/nhess-10-447-2010, 2010.
12. Caine, N.: The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows, Geogr. Ann. A, 62, 23-27, doi:10.2307/520449, 1980.
13. Catalano, S. and De Guidi, G.: Late Quaternary uplift of northeastern Sicily: relation with the active normal faulting deformation, J. Geodyn., 36, 445-467, doi:10.1016/S0264-3707(02)00035-2, 2003.
14. Cuppari, P.: Del quadruplice temporale di Messina. Breve cenno, letto dal Prof. Antonio Cuppari nell'Adunanza ordinaria del 1° Marzo 1856, Atti della Reale Accademia dei Georgofili di Firenze, 3, 171-187, 1856.
15. Del Ventisette, C., Garfagnoli, F., Ciampalini, A., Battistini, A., Gigli, G., Moretti, S., and Casagli, N.: An integrated approach to the study of catastrophic debris-flows: geological hazard and human influence, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 2907-2922, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-2907-2012, 2012.
16. Di Stefano, E., Agate, A., Incarbona, A., Russo, F., Sprovieri, R., and Bonomo, S.: Late Quaternary high uplift rates in northeastern Sicily: evidence from calcareous nannofossils and benthic and planktonic foraminifera, Facies, 58, 1-15, doi:10.1007/s10347-011-0271-3, 2012.
17. Ehret, U.: Rainfall and flood nowcasting in small catchments using weather radar, PhD thesis, University of Stuttgart, Germany, 262 pp., 2002.
18. Frattini, P., Crosta, G., and Sosio, R.: Approaches for defining thresholds and return periods for rainfall-triggered shallow landslides, Hydrol. Process., 23, 1444-1460, doi:10.1002/hyp.7269, 2009.
19. Gardner, W. R.: Some steady-state solutions of the unsaturated moisture flow equation with application to evaporation from a water table, Soil Sci., 85, 228-232, doi:10.1097/00010694-195804000-00006, 1958.
20. Ghezzehei, T. A., Kneafsey, T. J., and Su, G. W.: Correspondence of the Gardner and van Genuchten-Mualem relative permeability function parameters, Water Resour. Res., 43, W10417, doi:10.1029/2006WR005339, 2007.
21. Glade, T.: Establishing the frequency and magnitude of landslide-triggering rainstorm events in New Zealand, Environ. Geol., 35, 160-174, doi:10.1007/s002540050302, 1997.
22. Greenwood, J. A., Landwehr, J. M., Matalas, N. C., and Wallis, J. R.: Probability weighted moments: definition and relation to parameters of several distribution expressable in inverse form, Water Resour. Res., 15, 1049-1054, doi:10.1029/WR015i005p01049, 1979.
23. Grelle, G., Soriano, M., Revellino, P., Guerriero, L., Anderson, M. G., Diambra, A., Fiorillo, F., Esposito, L., Diodato, N., and Guadagno, F. M.: Space-time prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides through a combined probabilistic/deterministic approach, optimized for initial water table conditions, B. Eng. Geol. Environ., 73, 877-890, doi:10.1007/s10064-013-0546-8, 2014.
24. Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides in central and southern Europe, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 98, 239-267, doi:10.1007/s00703-007-0262-7, 2007.
25. Guzzetti, F., Peruccacci, S., Rossi, M., and Stark, C. P.: The rainfall intensity-duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows: an update, Landslides, 5, 3-17, doi:10.1007/s10346-007-0112-1, 2008.
26. Hawke, R. and McConchie, J.: In situ measurement of soil moisture and pore-water pressures in an 'incipient' landslide: Lake Tutira, New Zealand, J. Environ. Manage., 92, 266-274, doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.05.035, 2011.
27. Hosking, J. R. M., Wallis, J. R., and Wood, E. F.: Estimation of the generalized extreme value distribution by the method of probability weighted moments, Technometrics, 27, 251-261, doi:10.1080/00401706.1985.10488049, 1985.
28. Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguers, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., Maskell, K., and Johnson, C. A.: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK/New York, USA, 881 pp., 2001.
29. Hungr, O., Leroueil, S., and Picarelli, L: The Varnes classification of landslide types, an update, Landslides, 11, 167-194, doi:10.1007/s10346-013-0436-y, 2014.
30. Iovine, G., Di Gregorio, S., and Lupiano, V.: Debris-flow susceptibility assessment through cellular automata modeling: an example from 15-16 December 1999 disaster at Cervinara and San Martino Valle Caudina (Campania, southern Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 457-468, doi:10.5194/nhess-3-457-2003, 2003.
31. Iverson, R. M.: Landslide triggering by rain infiltration, Water Resour. Res., 36, 1897-1910, doi:10.1029/2000WR900090, 2000.
32. Jacob, M. and Hungr, O.: Debris-flow Hazards and Related Phenomena, Springer-Praxis Publishing Ltd, Chichester, UK, 739 pp., 2005.
33. Jenkinson, A. F: The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) values of meteorological events, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 87, 158-171, doi:10.1002/qj.49708134804, 1955.
34. Jensen, D. T., Hargreaves, G. H., Temesgen, B., and Allen, R. G.:Computation of ETo under nonideal conditions, J. Irrig. Drain. E-Asce, 123, 394-400, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1997)123:5(394), 1997.
35. Johnson, A. I.: Specific yield-compilation of specific yields for various materials, US Geological Survey, Water Supply Paper, 1662-D, 74 pp., 1967.
36. Lentini, F., Catalano, S., and Carbone, S.: Note illustrative della carta geologica della Provincia di Messina scala 1:50.000 S.EL.CA., Florence, Italy, 19 pp., 2000.
37. Lo, W. C., Lin, B. S., Ho, H. C., Keck, J., Yin, H. Y., and Shan, H. Y.: A simple and feasible process for using multi-stage high-precision DTMs, field surveys and rainfall data to study debris flow occurrence factors of Shenmu area, Taiwan, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3407-3419, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-3407-2012, 2012.
38. Loheide II, S. P., Butler Jr., J. J., and Gorelick, S. M.: Estimation of groundwater consumption by phreatophytes using diurnal water table fluctuations: a saturated-unsaturated flow assessment, Water Resour. Res., 41, W07030, doi:10.1029/2005WR003942, 2005.
39. Lu, N. and Godt, J. W.: Infinite-slope stability under steady unsaturated conditions, Water Resour. Res., 44, W11404, doi:10.1029/2008WR006976, 2008.
40. Lu, N., Godt, J. W., and Wu, D. T.: A closed-form equation for effective stress in unsaturated soil, Water Resour. Res., 46, W05515, doi:10.1029/2009WR008646, 2010.
41. Mair, A. and Fares, A.: Comparison of rainfall interpolation methods in a mountainous region of a tropical island, J. Hydrol. Eng., 16, 371-383, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000330, 2011.
42. Melfi, D., Zauli, F., Biron, D., Vocino, A., and Sist, M.: The impact of NEFODINA convective clouds identification in the rain rate retrieval of H-SAF, in: Proceedings of the 2012 EUMETSAT Meteorological Satellite Conference, Sopot, Poland, 3-7 September 2012, 2012.
43. Montgomery, D. R. and Dietrich, W. E.: A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding, Water Resour. Res., 30, 1153-1171, doi:10.1029/93WR02979, 1994.
44. Mugnai, A., Casella, D., Cattani, E., Dietrich, S., Laviola, S., Levizzani, V., Panegrossi, G., Petracca, M., Sanò, P., Di Paola, F., Biron, D., De Leonibus, L., Melfi, D., Rosci, P., Vocino, A., Zauli, F., Pagliara, P., Puca, S., Rinollo, A., Milani, L., Porcù, F., and Gattari, F.: Precipitation products from the hydrology SAF, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1959-1981, doi:10.5194/nhess-13-1959-2013, 2013.
45. Nadim, F., Kjekstad, O., Peduzzi, P., Herold, C., and Jaedicke, C.: Global landslide and avalanche hotspots, Landslides, 3, 159-173, doi:10.1007/s10346-006-0036-1, 2006.
46. Nimmo, J. R.: Unsaturated zone flow processes, in: Encyclopedia of Hydrological Sciences: part 13 Groundwater, edited by: Anderson, M. G. and Bear, J., Wiley, Chichester, UK, 2299-2322, 2005.
47. Pegram, G.: Spatial interpolation and mapping of rainfall (SIMAR) - Volume 3: Data merging for rainfall map production, Water Resource Commission Report no. 1153/1/04, 2003.
48. Penna, D., Borga, M., Aronica, G. T., Brigandì, G., and Tarolli, P.: The influence of grid resolution on the prediction of natural and road-related shallow landslides, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2127-2139, doi:10.5194/hess-18-2127-2014, 2014.
49. Peres, D. J. and Cancelliere, A.: Derivation and evaluation of landslide triggering thresholds by a Monte Carlo approach, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4913-4931, doi:10.5194/hess-18-4913-2014, 2014.
50. Petley, D. N.: Global patterns of loss of life from landslides, Geology, 40, 927-930, doi:10.1130/G33217.1, 2012.
51. Ray, R. L. and Jacobs, J. M.: Relationships among remotely soil moisture, precipitation and landslide events, Nat. Hazards, 43, 211-222, doi:10.1007/s11069-006-9095-9, 2007.
52. Ray, R. L., Jacobs, J. M., and Cosh, M. H.: Landslide susceptibility mapping using downscaled AMSR-E soil moisture: A case study from Cleveland Corral, California, US, Remote Sens. Environ., 114, 2624-2636, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2010.05.033, 2010.
53. Reichenbach, P., Cardinali, M., De Vita, P., and Guzzetti, F.: Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (central Italy), Environ. Geol., 35, 146-159, doi:10.1007/s002540050301, 1998.
54. Salciarini, D., Godt, J.W., Savage,W. Z., Conversini, P., and Baum, R. L.: Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy, Landslides, 3, 181-194, doi:10.1007/s10346-006-0037-0, 2006.
55. Saulnier, G. M., Beven, K., and Obled, C.: Including spatially variable effective soil depths in TOPMODEL, J. Hydrol., 202, 158-172, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(97)00059-0, 1997.
56. Savage, W. Z., Godt, J. W., and Baum, R. L.: A model for spatially and temporally distributed shallow landslide initiation by rainfall infiltration, in: Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment, edited by: Rickenmann, D. and Chen, C. L., Millpress, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, 179-187, 2003.
57. Schaap, M. G., Leij, F. J., and van Genuchten, M. Th.: ROSETTA: a computer program for estimating soil hydraulic parameters with hierarchical pedotransfer functions, J. Hydrol., 251, 163-176, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(01)00466-8, 2001.
58. Schilirò, L. and Esposito, C.: Susceptibility assessment and triggering scenarios for shallow landslides in the southern Messina province (north-eastern Sicily, Italy) using statistic-probabilistic and deterministic approaches, Rendiconti online della Società Geologica Italiana, 24, 298-300, 2013.
59. Schilirò, L., De Blasio, F. V., Esposito, C., and Scarascia Mugnozza, G.: Reconstruction of a destructive debris-flow event via numerical modeling: the role of valley geometry on flow dynamics, Earth Surf. Process., doi:10.1002/esp.3762, in press, 2015.
60. Serrano, S. E.: Hydrology for Engineers, Geologists, and Environmental Professionals: An Integrated Treatment of Surface, Subsurface, and Contaminant Hydrology, Second Edition, Hydroscience Inc., USA, 590 pp., 2010.
61. Šimu˚nek, J., Huang, M., Šejna, M., and van Genuchten, M. Th.: The HYDRUS-1D software package for simulating the one-dimensional movement of water, heat, and multiple solutes in variably-saturated media. Version 1.0, International Ground Water Modeling Center, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado, 186 pp., 1998.
62. Terlien, M. T. J.: The determination of statistical and deterministic hydrological landslide-triggering thresholds, Environ. Geol., 35, 124-130, doi:10.1007/s002540050299, 1998.
63. Trigila, A., Iadanza, C., Esposito, C., and Scarascia Mugnozza, G.: Comparison of Logistic Regression and Random Forests techniques for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in Giampilieri (NE Sicily, Italy), Geomorphology, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.06.001, in press, 2015.
64. Vanapalli, S. K., and Fredlund, D. G.: Comparison of different procedures to predict unsaturated soil shear strength, in: Advances in Unsaturated Geotechnics, edited by: Shackelford, C. D., Houston, S. L., and Chang, N. Y., Society of Civil Engineers, 2000.
65. van Genuchten, M. Th.: A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 44, 892-898, doi:10.2136/sssaj1980.03615995004400050002x, 1980.
66. Warrick, A. W.: Correspondence of hydraulic functions for unsaturated soils, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 59, 292-299, doi:10.2136/sssaj1995.03615995005900020003x, 1995.
67. Wieczorek, G. F. and Glade, T.: Climatic factors influencing occurrence of debris flows, in: Debris-flow Hazards and Related Phenomena, edited by: Jacob, M. and Hungr, O., Springer-Praxis Publishing Ltd, Chichester, UK, 325-362, 2005.
68. Wilson, R. C. and Wieczorek, G. F.: Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flow at La Honda, California, Environ. Eng. Geosci., 1, 11-27, 1995.