Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics

Condor

Volumn 117, Issue 4, 2015, Pages 494-502

  McGowan, Conor P ^a  

^a AUBURN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian model weight updating; Caldris canutus; Lemming cycles; Population modeling

Indexed keywords

EID: 84940881826     PISSN: 00105422     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1650/CONDOR-15-9.1     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Baker, A., P. Gonzalez, R. I. G. Morrison, and B. A. Harrington (2013). Red Knot (Calidris canutus). In The Birds of North America Online (A. Poole, Editor). Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY, USA. http://bna.birds.cornell.edu/bna/species/563 doi:10.2173/bna.563
2. Baker, A. J., P. M. González, T. Piersma, L. J. Niles, I. de Lima Serrano do Nascimento, P. W. Atkinson, N. A. Clark, C. D. T. Minton, M. K. Peck, and G. Aarts (2004). Rapid population decline in Red Knots: Fitness consequences of decreased refueling rates and late arrival in Delaware Bay. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, Series B 271:875-882.
3. Blomqvist, S., N. Holmgren, S. Åkesson, A. Hedenström, and J. Pettersson (2002). Indirect effects of lemming cycles on sandpiper dynamics: 50 years of counts from southern Sweden. Oecologia 133:146-158. doi:10.1007/s00442-002-1017-2
4. Fraser, J. D., S. M. Karpanty, J. B. Cohen, and B. R. Truitt (2012). The Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) decline in the western hemisphere: Is there a lemming connection? Canadian Journal of Zoology 911:13-16.
5. Frederick, P. C., B. Hylton, J. A. Heath, and M. Ruane (2003). Accuracy and variation in estimates of large numbers of birds by individual observers using an aerial survey simulator. Journal of Field Ornithology 74:281-287.
6. McAllister, M. K., E. K. Pikitch, A. E. Punt, and R. Hilborn (1994). A Bayesian approach to stock assessment and harvest decisions using the sampling/importance resampling algorithm. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 51:2673-2687.
7. McGowan, C. P., J. E. Hines, J. D. Nichols, J. E. Lyons, D. R. Smith, K. S. Kalasz, L. J. Niles, A. D. Dey, N. A. Clark, P. W. Atkinson, C. D. T. Minton, and W. Kendall (2011b). Demographic consequences of migratory stopover: Linking Red Knot survival to horseshoe crab spawning abundance. Ecosphere 2:article 69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00106.1
8. McGowan, C. P., J. E. Lyons, and D. R. Smith (2015). Developing objectives with multiple stakeholders: Adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and Red Knots in the Delaware Bay. Environmental Management 55:972-982.
9. McGowan, C. P., M. C. Runge, and M. A. Larson (2011c). Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models. Biological Conservation 144:1400-1408.
10. McGowan, C. P., D. R. Smith, J. A. Sweka, J. Martin, J. D. Nichols, R. Wong, J. E. Lyons, L. J. Niles, K. Kalasz, J. Brust, M. Klopfer, and B. Spear (2009). A Framework for Adaptive Management of Horseshoe Crab Harvest in the Delaware Bay Constrained by Red Knot Conservation. Report to the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, Washington, DC, USA.
11. McGowan, C. P., D. R. Smith, J. A. Sweka, J. Martin, J. D. Nichols, R. Wong, J. E. Lyons, L. J. Niles, K. Kalasz, J. Brust, M. Klopfer, and B. Spear (2011a). Multispecies model for adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and Red Knots in Delaware Bay. Natural Resource Modeling 24:117-156.
12. Nichols, J. D., M. C. Runge, F. A. Johnson, and B. K. Williams (2007). Adaptive harvest management of North American waterfowl populations: A brief history and future prospects. Journal of Ornithology 149(Suppl. 2):S343-S349.
13. Nicolson, C. R., A. M. Starfield, G. P. Kofinas, and J. A. Kruse (2002). Ten heuristics for interdisciplinary modeling projects. Ecosystems 5:376-384.
14. Niles, L. J., J. Bart, H. P. Sitters, A. D. Dey, K. E. Clark, P. W. Atkinson, A. L Baker, K. A. Bennett, K. S. Kalasz, N. A. Clark, J. Clark, et al. (2009). Effects of horseshoe crab harvest in Delaware Bay on Red Knots: Are harvest restrictions working? BioScience 59:153-164.
15. Niles, L. J., H. P. Sitters, A. D. Dey, P. W. Atkinson, A. J. Baker, K. A. Bennett, R. Carmona, K. E. Clark, N. A. Clark, C. Espoza, P. M. González, et al. (2008). Status of the Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) in the Western Hemisphere. Studies in Avian Biology 36, Cooper Ornithological Society.
16. Pollock, K. H., and W. L. Kendall (1987). Visibility bias in aerial surveys: A review of estimation procedures. Journal of Wildlife Management 51:502-510.
17. R Development Core Team (2011). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
18. Rodgers, A. R., and M. C. Lewis (1986). Diet selection in Arctic lemmings (Lemmus sibiricus and Dicrostonyx groenlandicus): Demography, home range, and habitat use. Canadian Journal of Zoology 64:2717-2727.
19. Scranton, K., J. Knape, and P. de Valpine (2014). An approximate Bayesian computation approach to parameter estimation in a stochastic stage-structured population model. Ecology 95: 1418-1428.
20. Smith, D. R., C. P. McGowan, J. P. Daily, J. D. Nichols, J. A. Sweka, and J. E. Lyons (2013). Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making? Journal of Applied Ecology 50:1431-1440. doi:10.1111/1365-2664.12145
21. Starfield, A. M. (1997). A pragmatic approach to modeling for wildlife management. Journal of Wildlife Management 61: 261-270.
22. Sutherland, W. J. (1988). Predation may link the cycles of lemmings and birds. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 3:29-30.
23. Sweka, J. A., D. R. Smith, and M. J. Millard (2007). An age-structured population model for horseshoe crabs in the Delaware Bay area to assess harvest and egg availability for shorebirds. Estuaries and Coasts 30:277-286.
24. Williams, B. K., J. D. Nichols, and M. J. Conroy (2002). Analysis and Management of Animal Populations. Academic Press, New York, NY, USA.
25. Williams, B. K., R. C. Szaro, and C. D. Shapiro (2007). Adaptive Management: The U.S. Department of the Interior Technical Guide. Adaptive Management Working Group, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC, USA.