Effectiveness of dynamic quarantines against pathogen spread in models of the horticultural trade network

Ecological Complexity

Volumn 24, Issue , 2015, Pages 14-28

  Nelson, Michael F ^a   Bone, Christopher E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OREGON   (United States)

Author keywords

Networks; Plant pathogens; Plant trade; Quarantine; Simulation

Indexed keywords

EID: 84940743135     PISSN: 1476945X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecocom.2015.07.002     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Andersson C., Hellervik A., Lindgren K., Hagson A., Tornberg J. Urban economy as a scale-free network. Phys. Rev. E 2003, 68:036124. 10.1103/PhysRevE.68.036124.
2. Arino J., Jordan R., van den Driessche P. Quarantine in a multi-species epidemic model with spatial dynamics. Math. Biosci. 2007, 206:46-60. Alcala Special Issue. 10.1016/j.mbs.2005.09.002.
3. Barabási A.-L., Albert R. Emergence of scaling in random networks. Science 1999, 286:509-512.
4. Barbier E., Knowler D. Commercialization decisions and the economics of introduction. Euphytica 2006, 148:151-164.
5. Barbier E.B., Gwatipedza J., Knowler D., Reichard S.H. The North American horticultural industry and the risk of plant invasion. Agric. Econ. 2011, 42:113-130.
6. Bigras-Poulin M., Thompson R.A., Chriel M., Mortensen S., Greiner M. Network analysis of Danish cattle industry trade patterns as an evaluation of risk potential for disease spread. Prev. Vet. Med. 2006, 76:11-39. 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2006.04.004.
7. Brooker J., Eastwood D., Hall C., Morris K., Hodges A., Haydu J. Trade flows and marketing practices within the United States nursery industry: 2003. South. Coop. Ser. Bull. 2005, 404.
8. CA Dept.of Food and Agriculture CDFA - Plant Health Services [WWW Document] 2015, http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/plant/ (accessed 2.23.15).
9. Csardi G., Nepusz T. The igraph software package for complex network research. InterJournal Complex Syst. 2006, 1695.
10. Davidson J.M., Wickland A.C., Patterson H.A., Falk K.R., Rizzo D.M. Transmission of Phytophthora ramorum in mixed-evergreen forest in California. Phytopathology 2005, 95:587-596.
11. Elliott M., Sumampong G., Varga A., Shamoun S.F., James D., Masri S., Brière S.C., Grünwald N.J. PCR-RFLP markers identify three lineages of the North American and European populations of Phytophthora ramorum. For. Pathol. 2009, 39:266-278. 10.1111/j.1439-0329.2008.00586.x.
12. Frankel S.J. Sudden oak death and Phytophthora ramorum in the USA: a management challenge. Australas. Plant Pathol. 2008, 37:19-25. 10.1071/AP07088.
13. Garlaschelli D., Loffredo M.I. Structure and evolution of the world trade network. Phys. Stat. Mech. Appl. 2005, 355:138-144. Market Dynamics and Quantitative Economics Selection of papers presented at the First Bonzenfreies Colloquiumon Market Dynamics and Quantitative Economics First Bonzenfreies Colloquium on Market Dynamics and Quantitative Economics. 10.1016/j.physa.2005.02.075.
14. Goss E.M., Larsen M., Chastagner G.A., Givens D.R., Grünwald N.J. Population genetic analysis infers migration pathways of Phytophthora ramorum in US nurseries. PLoS Pathog. 2009, 5:e1000583. 10.1371/journal.ppat.1000583.
15. Goss E.M., Larsen M., Vercauteren A., Werres S., Heungens K., Grünwald N.J. Phytophthora ramorum in Canada: evidence for migration within North America and from Europe. Phytopathology 2010, 101:166-171. 10.1094/PHYTO-05-10-0133.
16. Grimm V., Berger U., DeAngelis D.L., Polhill J.G., Giske J., Railsback S.F. The ODD protocol: a review and first update. Ecol. Model. 2010, 221:2760-2768. 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.019.
17. Hansen E.M., Kanaskie A., Prospero S., McWilliams M., Goheen E.M., Osterbauer N., Reeser P., Sutton W. Epidemiology of Phytophthora ramorum in Oregon tanoak forests. Can. J. For. Res. 2008, 38:1133-1143. 10.1139/X07-217.
18. Hethcote H., Zhien M., Shengbing L. Effects of quarantine in six endemic models for infectious diseases. Math. Biosci. 2002, 180:141-160. 10.1016/S0025-5564(02)00111-6.
19. Infogroup ReferenceUSA [WWW Document] 2015, http://www.referenceusa.com/Home/Home (accessed 3.25.15).
20. Jeger M.J., Pautasso M., Holdenrieder O., Shaw M.W. Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytol. 2007, 174:279-297. 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2007.02028.x.
21. Kaluza P., Kölzsch A., Gastner M.T., Blasius B. The complex network of global cargo ship movements. J. R. Soc. Interface 2010, 7:1093-1103. 10.1098/rsif.2009.0495.
22. Kampstra P. Beanplot: a boxplot alternative for visual comparison of distributions. J. Stat. Softw. 2008, 28:1-9.
23. Keeling M.J. The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B: Biol. Sci. 1999, 266:859-867. 10.1098/rspb.1999.0716.
24. Keeling M. The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics. Theor. Popul. Biol. 2005, 67:1-8.
25. Keeling M.J., Eames K.T.D. Networks and epidemic models. J. R. Soc. Interface 2005, 2:295-307. 10.1098/rsif.2005.0051.
26. Kinloch B.B. White pine blister rust in North America: past and prognosis. Phytopathology 2003, 93:1044-1047. 10.1094/PHYTO.2003.93.8.1044.
27. Lagorio C., Dickison M., Vazquez F., Braunstein L.A., Macri P.A., Migueles M.V., Havlin S., Stanley H.E. Quarantine-generated phase transition in epidemic spreading. Phys. Rev. E 2011, 83:026102. 10.1103/PhysRevE.83.026102.
28. Li X., Ying Jin Y., Chen G. Complexity and synchronization of the world trade web. Phys. Stat. Mech. Appl. 2003, 328:287-296. 10.1016/S0378-4371(03)00567-3.
29. Liebhold A.M., Brockerhoff E.G., Garrett L.J., Parke J.L., Britton K.O. Live plant imports: the major pathway for forest insect and pathogen invasions of the US. Front. Ecol. Environ. 2012, 10:135-143. 10.1890/110198.
30. Mascheretti S., Croucher P.J.P., Vettraino A., Prospero S., Garbelotto M. Reconstruction of the sudden oak death epidemic in California through microsatellite analysis of the pathogen Phytophthora ramorum. Mol. Ecol. 2008, 17:2755-2768.
31. Mascheretti S., Croucher P.J.P., Kozanitas M., Baker L., Garbelotto M. Genetic epidemiology of the sudden oak death pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in California. Mol. Ecol. 2009, 18:4577-4590.
32. May R., Lloyd A. Infection dynamics on scale-free networks. Phys. Rev. E 2001, 64:066112. 10.1103/PhysRevE.64.066112.
33. Office of Plant Industries and Pest Management [WWW Document] 2015, http://mda.maryland.gov/plants-pests/Pages/default.aspx (accessed 2.23.15).
34. Mielke J.L. White Pine Blister Rust in Western North America 1943, Yale University, New Haven, CT.
35. Moslonka-Lefebvre M., Pautasso M., Jeger M.J. Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. J. Theor. Biol. 2009, 260:402-411. 10.1016/j.jtbi.2009.06.015.
36. Moslonka-Lefebvre M., Finley A., Dorigatti I., Dehnen-Schmutz K., Harwood T., Jeger M.J., Xu X., Holdenrieder O., Pautasso M. Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries, and continents. Phytopathology 2010, 101:392-403. 10.1094/PHYTO-07-10-0192.
37. Newman M. The structure and function of complex networks. SIAM Rev. 2003, 45:167-256. 10.1137/S003614450342480.
38. Parke J.L., Lewis C. Root and stem infection of rhododendron from potting medium infested with Phytophthora ramorum. Plant Dis. 2007, 91:1265-1270. 10.1094/PDIS-91-10-1265.
39. Pautasso M., Jeger M.J. Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in small-size directed networks. Ecol. Complex 2008, 5:1-8. 10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.07.001.
40. Pautasso M., Jeger M.J. Network epidemiology and plant trade networks. AOB Plants 2014, 6:plu007.
41. Pautasso M., Moslonka-Lefebvre M., Jeger M.J. The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecol. Complex 2010, 7:424-432. 10.1016/j.ecocom.2009.10.003.
42. Pautasso M., Xu X., Jeger M.J., Harwood T.D., Moslonka-Lefebvre M., Pellis L. Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. J. Appl. Ecol. 2010, 47:1300-1309. 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2010.01884.x.
43. R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing 2014, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
44. Rizzo D.M., Garbelotto M., Hansen E.M. Phytophthora ramorum: integrative research and management of an emerging pathogen in California and Oregon forests. Annu. Rev. Phytopathol. 2005, 43. 309-C-4. 10.1146/annurev.phyto.42.040803.140418.
45. Sattenspiel L., Herring D.A. Simulating the effect of quarantine on the spread of the 1918-19 flu in Central Canada. Bull. Math. Biol. 2003, 65:1-26. 10.1006/bulm.2002.0317.
46. Schrader G., Unger J.-G. Plant quarantine as a measure against invasive Alien species: the framework of the International Plant Protection Convention and the Plant Health Regulations in the European Union. Biol. Invasions 2003, 5:357-364. 10.1023/B:BINV.0000005567.58234.b9.
47. Shirley M.D.F., Rushton S.P. The impacts of network topology on disease spread. Ecol. Complex 2005, 2:287-299. 10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.04.005.
48. Spaulding P. The Blister Rust of White Pine 1911, US Government Printing Office.
49. Spaulding P., et al. White-Pine Blister Rust: a Comparison of European With North American Conditions 1929, US Department of Agriculture.
50. Stehlé J., Voirin N., Barrat A., Cattuto C., Colizza V., Isella L., Régis C., Pinton J.-F., Khanafer N., Broeck W.V., den Vanhems P. Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees. BMC Med. 2011, 9:87. 10.1186/1741-7015-9-87.
51. Tjosvold S.A., Chambers D.L., Fichtner E.J., Koike S.T., Mori S.R. Disease risk of potting media infested with Phytophthora ramorum under nursery conditions. Plant Dis. 2009, 93:371-376. 10.1094/PDIS-93-4-0371.
52. WA Dept.of Agriculture Plant Quarantine Regulations [WWW Document] 2015, http://agr.wa.gov/PlantsInsects/PlantQuarantines/PlantQuarantines.aspx (accessed 2.23.15).
53. Weber G.A., et al. The Plant Quarantine and Control Administration. Its History, Activities and Organization 1930, Serv. Monog. US Govt.
54. Werres S., Kaminski K. Characterisation of European and North American Phytophthora ramorum isolates due to their morphology and mating behaviour in vitro with heterothallic Phytophthora species. Mycol. Res. 2005, 109:860-871.
55. White J.W., Rassweiler A., Samhouri J.F., Stier A.C., White C. Ecologists should not use statistical significance tests to interpret simulation model results. Oikos 2014, 123:385-388. 10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.01073.x.
56. Yellow Pages Digital & Media Solutions Limited Find Local Businesses, Products, Reviews and Deals on YellowPages.ca - YP.ca [WWW Document] 2015, http://www.yellowpages.ca/ (accessed 3.25.15).