Population, migration, and the lewis turning point in China

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Yearbooks: Population and Labor

Volumn 1, Issue , 2009, Pages ix-xli

  Chan, Kam Wing ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84940641036     PISSN: 1875936X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: None     Document Type: Review

References (74)

1. E.g. Alwyn Scott, "Bridging two worlds: a new life for Susie Cheng," Seattle Times, July 9, 2006, A1.
2. Zai Liang, "Foreign Investment, Economic Growth, and Temporary Migration: The Case of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone, China," Development and Society, 28, 1:115-137, 1999
3. Kam Wing Chan, "Misconceptions and Complexities in the Study of China's Cities: Definitions, Statistics, and Implications," Eurasian Geography and Economics, 48, 4, (2007), p. 397.
4. "Nongmingong shiye diaocha (Survey of Unemployment of Rural Migrant Labor)," Caijing, No. 229, January 19, 2009 [http://www.caijing.com.cn/], accessed on January 20, 2009.
5. Zai Liang and Zhongdong Ma (2004), "China's floating population: new evidence from the 2000 census," Population Development Review, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 467-488
6. Thomas Scharping, "Hide-and-seek China's elusive population data," China Economic Review, 12(4): 323-332, 2001.
7. This is not unique to migration. Similar problems occur in employment and urban statistics. See Cai Fang, "The Consistency of China's Statistics on Employment," The Chinese Economy, 37(5):74-89, (2004)
8. Chan, "Misconceptions and Complexities in the Study of China's Cities."
9. Chan, "Misconceptions and Complexities."
10. United Nations Development Programme, China Human Development Report 1999: Transition and the State, [http://www.undp.org.cn/downloads/nhdr/nhdr1999.pdf]. (1999).
11. Kenneth D. Roberts, "Female Labor Migrants to Shanghai: Temporary 'Floaters' or Settlers?" International Migration Review, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 492-519.
12. See, for instance, amidst the voluminous data in the 29 tables under the Population and Labor Section in Shanghai Statistical Yearbook 2006 (at http://www.stats-sh.gov.cn/2004shtj/tjnj/tjnj2006.htm#), only one rather obscure column is devoted to reporting the numbers of "outside population" (in Table 3.3), although the city is obviously a major destination of migrants in the country.
13. See Stephen Green, "On the World's Factory Floor: How China's Workers are Changing China and the Global Economy," Standard Chartered Special Report, January 14, 2008.
14. Kam Wing Chan and Li Zhang, "The Hukou System and Rural urban Migration: Processes and Changes," The China Quarterly, 160:818-855, 1999.
15. Fei-ling Wang, Organizing Through Division and Exclusion. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2005.
16. Kam Wing Chan and Will Buckingham, "Is China Abolishing the Hukou System?" The China Quarterly, No. 195, pp. 582-606 (2008).
17. Kam Wing Chan, "Measuring the Urban Millions," China Economic Quarterly, March 2009, pp. 21-26.
18. E.g. Yang Yunyan, "Temporary residents" in China: Causes and Characteristics. Chinese Environment and Development, Vol. 7, No. 1 and 2, pp. 103-117 (1996).
19. Yu Xuejun, "Tuidong renkou liudong fuwu he guanli tizhi chuangxin cujin chengxiang kexue fazhan" (Promote institutional innovations in the service and management system of the floating population and scientific development of the rural and urban sectors),, Paper presented at the Forum on Reform and Population Development, Beijing, China, October 23, 2008, http://www.china.com.cn/zhibo/2008-10/23/con-tent-16647215.htm. Accessed on October 23, 2008.
20. Yang Yunyan, "Temporary residents."
21. Yang Yunyan, "New features of population migration in the 1990s in China," Nanfang renkou (Southern Population), No. 75, pp. 13-20 (2004)
22. Zhao Shukai, "The Mobility of Rural Migrants: New Stage and New Issues." in 1998: Analysis and Forecast of the Social Situation of China (in Chinese), State Council, Development Research Center. Beijing: Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe, pp. 76-89 (1998)
23. Scott Rozelle, Li Guo, Minggao Shen, Amelia Hughart, John Giles, "Leaving China's Farms: Survey Results of New Paths and Remaining Hurdles to Rural Migration," The China Quarterly, No. 158, pp. 367-393 (1999).
24. One would assume that the accuracy of 2000 and 2005 figures are higher than the rest of the series because they are from either a full census (2000) or a 1-per cent national sample (2005) while the rest is from annual 1-per-1000 sample surveys. However, my earlier research suggests that there are good reasons to believe that the 2000 Census (similarly, the 2005 "mini-census") may have overcounted the size of migrants while the regular, annual 1-per-1000 survey may have erred in the opposite direction (undercounting the migrant population) (see Kam Wing Chan, "Chinese Census 2000: New Opportunities and Challenges," The China Review, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 1-12 (2003)). Given the above possibilities, a reasonable guess would be to put the true migration figures (Series D) somewhere in between those two sets of numbers. For example, one can reason that the figure in 2005 and 2006 for D would be between 130 and 150 million.
25. Zhao Shukai, "The Mobility of Rural Migrants."
26. Cai Fang and Kam Wing Chan. "The political economy of urban protectionist employment policies in China," Working Paper Series No.2, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Population Studies (2000).
27. Kam Wing Chan and Ying Hu, "Urbanization in China in the 1990s: new defi-nition, different series, and revised trends," The China Review, Vol. 3, No. 2, pp. 49-71 (2003)
28. Cai Fang, 2002 nian: Zhongguo renkou yu laodong wenti baogao (2002: Report of China's Population and Labour), Beijing: Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe (2002), p. 70.
29. The average growth rate of rural migrant labor was about 5.4% in 2003-2006 nationwide while in Dongguan in the Pearl River Delta, this rate reached 18% per year in 2000-2004. Data are from Dongguan Statistical Bureau, see http://tjj.dg.gov.cn/website/web/zhctjnj/2005TJNJ/02/sheet004.htm.
30. For a different account of China's urbanization and urban systems from what is presented in Chapter 1, see Kam Wing Chan, Vernon Henderson, and Kai Yuen Tsui, "Spatial Dimensions of Chinese Economic Development," in Loren Brandt and Thomas Rawski, eds., China's Great Transformation: Origins, Mechanisms, and Consequences of the Post-Reform Economic Boom. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, (2008), 776-828.
31. W. A. Lewis, "Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor," The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 22, 1954, pp. 139-191.
32. See, for example, Kam Wing Chan, Cities with Invisible Walls: Reinterpreting Urbanization in Post-1949 China, Oxford University Press, (1994)
33. Cai Fang, Zhongguo liudong renkou wenti (Question on China's Floating Population), Beijing, China: Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe, (2007), especially Chapter 2
34. Green, "On the World's Factory Floor."
35. Chan and Buckingham, "Abolishing Hukou System?"
36. See, especially, Cai Fang, "A Turning Point for China and Challenges for Further Development and Reform" (in Chinese), Zhongguo shehui kexue (Social Sciences in China), 2007, No. 3, pp. 4-12.
37. Peter Goodman (The Washington Post), "Factory Labor Runs Short in China," printed in Seattle Times, September 26, 2004, A13.
38. Kam Wing Chan, "The Chinese Hukou System at 50," Eurasian Geography and Economics, 50(2): 197-221, 2009.
39. Gustav Ranis, "Arthur Lewis' Contribution to Development Thinking and Policy," Yale University Economic Growth Center Discussion Paper, No. 891 (August), 2004.
40. Anita Chan, "A 'Race to the Bottom,'" China Perspectives, March-April 2003, at http://chinaperspectives.revues.org/document259.html, accessed on February 2, 2009.
41. David Barboza, "Labor Shortages in China May Lead to Trade Shifts," New York Times, April 3, 2006.
42. For example, Green, "On the World's Factory Floor"
43. "Fangang: Rural Migrant Labor Shortage is a Short-term Temporary Problem" (in Chinese), Sino.com, September 10, 2005, at http://news.beelink.com.cn/20050910/1928546.shtml, accessed on January 4, 2009
44. Xu Jingyong, "Same Roots: Prospecting 'Mingong Waves' and 'Minggong Shortages,'" Diaoyan shijie, undated, pp. 14-17, 33
45. Wu Xuean, "It's Too Early to Claim 'Rural Migrant Labor Shortages,'" Zhongguo Qingnian Bao, October 19, 2004, at http://www.people.com.cn/GB/shizheng/1026/2929562.html, accessed on March 4, 2009.
46. Keith Bradsher, "China's Unemployment Swells as Exports Falter," The New York Times, February 6, 2009
47. "Action to Aid Ten Million Rural Migrant Workers" (in Chinese), China.com, February 27, 2009, accessed at http://webcast.china.com.cn/webcast/created/3139/44-1-0101-desc.htm, February 27, 2009
48. The "registered unemployment rate" for urban population (with local hukou) was 4.2 percent in February, 2009, see "Urban New Employment Dropped by Large Amount" (in Chinese), March 10, 2009, at http://lianghui.china.com.cn/2009lianghui/2009-03/10/con-tent-17413922.htm, accessed on March 10, 2009.
49. See C. Fred Bergsten, Charles Freeman, Nicholas R. Lardy and Derek J. Mitchell, China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities, pp. 105-136 (2008).
50. Data from Dongguan Statistical Bureau, see http://tjj.dg.gov.cn/website/web/zhctjnj/2005TJNJ/02/sheet004.htm
51. http://tjj.dg.gov.cn/website/web/zhctjnj/2006ZY/sheet066.htm.
52. "Firms Recruiting Dropped by 10-30%; Wages Decreased by 10%," Caijing, February 9, 2009, at http://www.caijing.com.cn/2009-02-09/110054227.html, accessed February 11, 2009
53. "Two Million Rural Migrant Workers Blindly Flowed to Guangdong after Spring Festival," Nanfang Dushibao, February 4, 2009, accessed at http://epaper.nddaily.com/A/html/2009-02/04/content-696961.htm.
54. Kang Chao, Man and Land in Chinese History, Stanford University Press (1986).
55. Kam Wing Chan, "Economic Growth Strategy and Urbanization Policies in China, 1949-82," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 16, 2:275-305, 1992
56. Chan, "The Chinese Hukou System at 50."
57. Justin Yifu Lin, Fang Cai, Zhou Li, The China miracle: development strategy and economic reform, Hong Kong: Chinese University Press, 1996.
58. David Kelly, "Reincorporating the Mingong: Dilemmas of Citizen Status," in Ingrid Nielsen and Russell Smyth (eds.), Migration and Social Protection in China, Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Co., pp. 17-30 (2008).
59. Fei-ling Wang, Organizing through Division and Exclusion: China's Hukou System. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2005.
60. Dorothy Solinger, "The creation of a new underclass in China and its implications," Environment & Urbanization, 18(1): 177-193 (2006)
61. Ching Kwan Lee, Gender and the South China Miracle, Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1998
62. Peter Alexander and Anita Chan, "Does China Have an Apartheid Pass System?" Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 30 (4):609-629, 2004.
63. Chan, "A 'Race to the Bottom.'"
64. Green, "On the World's Factory Floor."
65. Wang has stated that the hukou system enabled China to bypass the Lewis turning point (Wang, Organizing through Division and Exclusion).
66. "Wages Unchanged for Two Decades, Li Desheng Explains Reasons for Labor Shortages," Beijing Chenbao, January 27, 2005, at http://politics.people.com.cn/GB/1027/3149315.html, accessed January 5, 2009. The stagnation of real wages of rural migrant labor was more serious in the early 2000s, considering that migrants then were more educated and more productive than those who came in the late 1980s.
67. Kelly, "Reincorporating the Mingong."
68. Chan and Buckingham, "Is China Abolishing the Hukou System?"
69. Cai Fang, "Solving the Rural Surplus Labor Puzzle" (in Chinese), Zhongguo renkou kexue, 2007, No. 2, p. 6. See also Chapter 9 by Wang in this volume.
70. Green, "On the World's Factory Floor."
71. "Labor Shortages Caused by Inability of Rural Labor to Settle in Cities" (in Chinese), Zhongguo Jingji Shebao, April 15, 2005, at http://news.beelink.com.cn/20050415/1827521.shtml, accessed on December 22, 2008.
72. Such as the elimination of agricultural tax in 2006 and the "new socialist town" policy (see Green, "On the World's Factory Floor," Part VII.)
73. This figure seems to square well with my rough estimate of rural labor surplus of 2006: Total rural labor: 470 million; Already transferred labor: 226 million; Labor needed for agriculture: 150 million; Implied surplus: 94 million. The estimate of "surplus," of course, critically depends on the assumption of labor needed for agriculture. A set of higher figures (178-228 million) is used by Cai Fang and Wang Meiyan, see Table 7.2 in Chapter 7. See also Green, "On the World's Factory Floor," Table 7 for more details and different estimates.
74. See Chan and Buckingham, "Abolishing the Hukou System?" and also Chapter 11.